Not sure who Odelius is but if he's not an NHL ready 20y top 4D, there's no reason why the Leafs would do that trade.

Dobson+Wahlstrom+a future 1st or a mid pick would be more reasonable.

willy for dobson is 1v1 then

Are you kidding me? How delusional can you be? Dobson is worth more than Nylander by himself lol.

no

Deal.

I haven't watched Dobson much, but if the main thing about him is a PP QB who is sound devensively, I don't think the Leafs would do that with having Rielly already. If he can play in a shutdown role as well though, then maybe. I could see a 2 for 2 happening there.


I don't think Dobson is worth much more than Liljgren+a 1st. Nylander isn't a C, but for a GM that gave a 1st+a top prospect+a former 1st for Horvat, the Leafs GM would likely ask him for a 1st+top prospect at least.

Now I know some Isles fans were thinking Dobson is on the same level as Fox and Hughes were a few years ago but I just don't agree.

Nylander is the superior player, the only thing that makes this close is the contract situation.

I think your the one who's delusional Dobson a young decent puck moving D who is not very good in his own end (yes he will get better with age). Have you watched him try to box out a player in front of his net? Is no where near Nylander's 40 goal value. Even his current contract is great value

young Right handed high end defenseman have more value than wingers, unless the winger is a superstar RFA.

There is a 0% chance the isles would trade Dobson for Nylander + , let alone add to get him. Trading Dobson for nylander makes the islanders significantly worse.

Dobson is by far the isles best offensive defenseman and he's provides value in many other ways. His chance assist rates were similar to Karlsson and Fox the season.

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He's right. I bet you were in favor of trading Devon toews for scraps too. And Dobson is better offensively than Toews was at the time, and younger.

Nylander isn't even a 10 mill dollar player right now, let alone in 2 years.

Whether or not the Isles should trade for Nylander or trade Dobson is a different issue. In the proposed trade the Isles are getting a RHD in Liljegren which is a downgrade on Dobson You're still getting a lesser RHD option in the trade as well. Wahlstrom is only 22, but it's not like he's a stud now. I don't think Lou wold trade Dobson but I wouldn't be surprised if he paid a boatload for Nylander.

Nylander is 27, not sure why you wouldn't expect him to be a 10M player in 2-years, it's possible, but even if he isn't that's what it would cost the Isles to sign a player like him, who would likely be their top forward.

I dont hate it but he might be a little expensive for the bottom line.

A forwards prime years are usually 23-28 YO. 99% of 7-8 year winger contracts signed at 28 YO age poorly. Nylander is great now, but he also benefits from playing with 2 superstars. He would likely be a 30 goal 65 pt forward on the isles.

Trading Dobson and Wahlstrom for Nylander and Liljegren makes the isles worse in the short term and long term.

Nylander is a perimeter player, who is a good skater but isn't relying on speed alone, he also doesn't risk his body, so he's more likely to age well beyond 32.

Also, his numbers aren't inflated by Matthews or Marner since his PP points % is average, if anything his production is getting hampered playing with Marner and Matthews since he's neither the play driver or the main shooter, two roles that he could fill on other teams. He was primarily with Tavares last year, and was PPG still, even though the two had bad stretches together. He makes his own plays, which is why he's played with Engvall and Jarnkrok at times.

There's no reason to think that Nylander would only get 30G and 65 pts is if he's on the Islanders, he's not Anders Lee. The Islanders would definitely benefit from adding Nylander+Liljegren over Wahlstrom+Dobson in the short term. Their powerplay will improve a lot and maybe Barzal will be able to get 25-30 goals.

Also, pretty sure prime years for forwards is 25-32. 23 is definitely not a prime forward or elsd Wahlstrom would be a bust already.

I don't see why COL would do this. Clutterbuck is fine and the pick in exchange is no big deal, but there are tons of bottom six guys to pick from without giving up anything.

The likelihood of Nylander being a star player into his 30's is extremely low based on history. Will he be a good player? Sure, but a star. The odds are not in his favor. He'll age like Tyler seguin, and Tyler seguin had a better prime than nylander.

His numbers are definitely inflated by playing with Matthews, look at how mediocre nylander was without Matthews, the leafs were outscored 29-26 when Nylander played without Matthews.

" The Islanders would definitely benefit from adding Nylander and Liljegren over wahlstrom and dobson in the short term" Why are you acting like your opinion should be taken as fact? I just proved this isn't true. High end top 4 Defenseman who play 20 min a game and carry the offense are a lot more valuable than scoring wingers.


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prime years for forwards are not 25-32, there is a ton of data out there that proves that forwards start to gradually decline at 28 YO. Wahlstrom is 22 and ranks 5th out of every isles forward from 2018-2022 in goals above replacement. He's been on an upward trajectory.

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Elite forwards typically decline after 30, so may it's 24-31 but anyways, that's not a good argument to not sign Nylander for 7/8 years when he's just a year older than Barzal.

The Isles are a team that lack talent so, saying that Wahlstrom ranks 5th in goals above placement out of all Isles at 22 doesn't really show how he's going to contribute more than Liljegren or that he projects to be as good as Nylander.

Isn't it possible that the Leafs were outscored 29-26, because Tavares+Nylander are allowing more than when Matthews+Nylander play together? All you need to do is compre Nylander's stats this year with last year, the boost in production with Matthews is 5 points.

You didn't really prove much, you just brought up a few stats and presented them in a way that supports your claim. Out of curiosity, how does Dobson compare to Barrie in terms of assist rate?

What you should be doing is comparing Nylander to Wahlstrom overall and Dobson to Liljegren overall, and see where you are gaining and losing.
At the end of the day, if Dobson's isn't surrounded with enough talent his raw stats aren't going to improve.

Edit: Could also try to compare Nylander to Dobson directly.

Counting stats are not the only way to evaluate a players true offensive impact. How a player impacts how many goals are scored when they are on the ice is just as important. Nylander was not able to be as effective when he wasn’t playing with a borderline generational talent. Still a great player, but there is nothing out there that will support your claim that the isles would be better with Nylander instead of Dobson. Every playoff teams needs an all situations D who can drive most of the offense and run a powerplay at a high level. Without Dobson , isles don’t have that. Your logic is extremely flawed. Trading a soon to be #1 defenseman for a winger is an insane thing to be talking about , unless that winger is a top 3-5 winger in the league and is able to carry a team like a Matthew Tkachuk. Very few players can do that as a winger.

Over the past 2 seasons, Dobson has more primary assists than Barrie despite Barrie being tied to Mcdavid/Draisaitl at even strength and on the PP. In terms of chance assist rate and setting up teammates, Dobson blows him away.

I don’t care if Dobson’s counting stats improve. A 50 pt defenseman who sets up his teammates at an elite rate and is responsible for most of the teams even strength offense is exceptional which is why he is pretty close to untouchable.

Centers are more valuable than wingers, barzal was signed to an 8 year deal which starts in his age 26 season. Nylanders starts in his age 28 season. Big difference.

Wahlstrom does not project as good as Nylander, he’s likely a 25-30 G , 55-60 pt player in his prime. Liljegren is pretty much a low end 2nd pair defenseman, can’t move the puck or contribute much on offense. Isles do not need him.

Need to get a few thing straight here:

1) I'm not saying that the Isles should trade Dobson or that they should trade Dobson for Nylander.
2) I also didn't claim that the Isles are better off with Nylander over Dobson. You made the claim that with that trading Dobson+Wahlstrom for Nylander+Liljegren makes the Isles worse in the short term and the long term along, and I made the claim that the Islanders would definitely benefit with trading Nylander+Liljegren over Dobson+Wahlstrom in the short term.

Basically your argument if I'm not mistaken is that Dobson is more valuable (although we aren't talking about value anymore) than Nylander because he's a top 4 RHD with top 2 potential, and you provided one offensive rate that paints Dobson in the same light as top 2 Dmen in the League. I'm not really disputing you on Dobson's potential or what he is but I will say you haven't presented enough to even back that up. You also, basically tried to discredit Nylander to say that his impact would be less.

I said you have to look at all the pieces and you kind of just told me what you think of all the pieces projecting to be.

Dobson might take it to the next level next season, but if we are looking at offense, which a team like Isles need help with (22nd in GF and 3rd worst PP), Nylander is likely going to have a larger contribution to offense than Dobson, that's my opinion. I'm not really an analytics person but I could cherry-pick some stats like adjusted goals created and point share from the last two seasons.

Nylander: GC- 62.7, PS - 17.8
Dobson: GC-32.7, PS - 16.3

For Reference:
Makar: GC-51.0 PS-25.7
Fox: GC-43.9 PS-23.8
Karlsson: GC-34 PS-17.6
Barrie: GC-30.3 PS-12.6

At ages 23-24:
Nylander: GC-53.5 PS-11.5
Makar: GC-51 PS-25.7
Karlsson: GC-55.1 PS 22.3
Fox: GC-43 PS 23.8
Barrie: GC- 29 PS - 16.6

If we are looking at offense, taking away one of the better offensive defenseman in the league for a winger would not lead to more offense. Nylander is able to put up a lot points partly because the leafs have multiple defenseman who can move the puck at a high level as well as an elite PP QB in Rielly. Which D is going to generate offense on the isles without Dobson?

What I posted is not analytics, they are micro stats. There are people that manually track games and track every pass that leads to a scoring chance

adjusted goals created and point shares do not isolate players from their teammates, modern day analytics are much more accurate.

Reading this thread is quite apparent that a lot of Isles fans did not watch much of Nylander last year. Nylander took a huge step up last year and not only put up excellent numbers but drove play all-year long, including in the playoffs. On many nights he was the Leafs most dangerous option.

All the Isles need is someone capable of making outlet passes, Nylander can carry the puck from the top of his zone to the ozone. Are you saying out of all of the Isles defenders only Dobson can make passes? Pelech and Pulock aren't going to be PP QBs but I'm sure they can make passes 5v5.

If Dobson is the only Dman who can move the puck at an elite level, and they don't trust that Liljegren can improve his offensive game, then the Isles are allowed to make moves. They can't have Rielly or Sandin (WSH) but I guess they could have Connor Timmins instead of Liljegren. If they want to get older, they could sign Erik Gustaffson or trade for one of the other elite puck-moving defensemen on the Leafs, or Jeff Petry or sign Klingberg or trade for Erik Karlsson if you aren't satisfied with any of those options.

GC and PS don't isolate players from their teammates but you can compare how each player is contributing within his team. You're trying to discredit Nylander because he has better offensive talent on his team, you showed how Nylander with Matthews is better than Nylander with Tavares and others. Nylander's production is due to his teammates while Dobson's is all him. After Matthews and Marner, Nylander is the player contributing most to the Leafs offense.

It's easier for teams to draft players like Nylander than getting a top 2 RD, but right now, Dobson is a top 4 RD, so until he breaks out (which he may never, Makar, Karlsson, and Fox were all better than him at ages 23-24), Nylander is going to make more of an impact.

His 5v5 primary assist rate in 2021-22 (and last season) is greater than Barzal's and Dobson's last season. His 5v5 G/60 in the 2021-22 season was 1.0 which is comparable to Barzal and Dobson's combined 5v5 G/60 rates in the previous two seasons (1.1 in 2021-22 and 1.0 in 2022-23).

Dobson is one of the best transistion defenseman in the NHL. Pelech and Pulock are both average in transition, every team needs an elite offensive defenseman in order to contend/make the playoffs.

I don’t you understand that quality of teammates affects production more than anything else. No one is disputing that nylander is a great player, but trading Dobson for him makes the islanders significantly worse and would go down as one of the worst trades in isles history.


Dobson isn’t going to be Fox or karlsson. He’s more of an Alex pietrangelo type of D. Dobson has been one of the better offensive D in the NHL and he put up a 51 pt season at 21 YO.

Dobson’s production and elite offensive generation is more impressive because 1. He does it as a defenseman and 2. He plays with mostly middle 6 talent. He’s already a top pair caliber defenseman.

There is nothing realistic the leafs can add to Nylander to pry Dobson from the islanders