Quoting: Db1899
Counting stats are not the only way to evaluate a players true offensive impact. How a player impacts how many goals are scored when they are on the ice is just as important. Nylander was not able to be as effective when he wasn’t playing with a borderline generational talent. Still a great player, but there is nothing out there that will support your claim that the isles would be better with Nylander instead of Dobson. Every playoff teams needs an all situations D who can drive most of the offense and run a powerplay at a high level. Without Dobson , isles don’t have that. Your logic is extremely flawed. Trading a soon to be #1 defenseman for a winger is an insane thing to be talking about , unless that winger is a top 3-5 winger in the league and is able to carry a team like a Matthew Tkachuk. Very few players can do that as a winger.
Over the past 2 seasons, Dobson has more primary assists than Barrie despite Barrie being tied to Mcdavid/Draisaitl at even strength and on the PP. In terms of chance assist rate and setting up teammates, Dobson blows him away.
I don’t care if Dobson’s counting stats improve. A 50 pt defenseman who sets up his teammates at an elite rate and is responsible for most of the teams even strength offense is exceptional which is why he is pretty close to untouchable.
Quoting: Db1899
Centers are more valuable than wingers, barzal was signed to an 8 year deal which starts in his age 26 season. Nylanders starts in his age 28 season. Big difference.
Wahlstrom does not project as good as Nylander, he’s likely a 25-30 G , 55-60 pt player in his prime. Liljegren is pretty much a low end 2nd pair defenseman, can’t move the puck or contribute much on offense. Isles do not need him.
Need to get a few thing straight here:
1) I'm not saying that the Isles should trade Dobson or that they should trade Dobson for Nylander.
2) I also didn't claim that the Isles are better off with Nylander over Dobson. You made the claim that with that trading Dobson+Wahlstrom for Nylander+Liljegren makes the Isles worse in the short term and the long term along, and I made the claim that the Islanders would definitely benefit with trading Nylander+Liljegren over Dobson+Wahlstrom in the short term.
Basically your argument if I'm not mistaken is that Dobson is more valuable (although we aren't talking about value anymore) than Nylander because he's a top 4 RHD with top 2 potential, and you provided one offensive rate that paints Dobson in the same light as top 2 Dmen in the League. I'm not really disputing you on Dobson's potential or what he is but I will say you haven't presented enough to even back that up. You also, basically tried to discredit Nylander to say that his impact would be less.
I said you have to look at all the pieces and you kind of just told me what you think of all the pieces projecting to be.
Dobson might take it to the next level next season, but if we are looking at offense, which a team like Isles need help with (22nd in GF and 3rd worst PP), Nylander is likely going to have a larger contribution to offense than Dobson, that's my opinion. I'm not really an analytics person but I could cherry-pick some stats like adjusted goals created and point share from the last two seasons.
Nylander: GC- 62.7, PS - 17.8
Dobson: GC-32.7, PS - 16.3
For Reference:
Makar: GC-51.0 PS-25.7
Fox: GC-43.9 PS-23.8
Karlsson: GC-34 PS-17.6
Barrie: GC-30.3 PS-12.6
At ages 23-24:
Nylander: GC-53.5 PS-11.5
Makar: GC-51 PS-25.7
Karlsson: GC-55.1 PS 22.3
Fox: GC-43 PS 23.8
Barrie: GC- 29 PS - 16.6