SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/Armchair-GM

What is Dubois Value Now based on Friedman

Créé par: Howie
Équipe: 2022-23 Jets de Winnipeg
Date de création initiale: 27 mars 2023
Publié: 27 mars 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
This agm is to find a deal that works for both sides as with Dubois most likely going to mtl. Finding something may be hard so instead I outline the assets that make sense to make a deal work in terms of asset classes. These classes will be divided by picks, prospects and nhl/cap.

Hope that this is useful in making discussion so we can better understand how we each see it so a more connected way of a deal can be made. The last thing I like seeing is deals that obviously favor one side and are defended by the creator saying "no leverage".

Mtl needs to beat the rental offer so a random b prospect and a 2nd won't be enough on that front.

Thanks for reading and hope this was able to find a way to make a connected view.
Transactions
1.
WPG
  1. Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (FLA)
Détails additionnels:
Asset Class 1 Picks

Wildly considered the main asset that goes for Dubois with mtl already having a top 10 pick. The range of the pick could be from 14-20 but for this I'm assuming a middle ground of 17th overall. This would allow for a player with team control from a strong class to come up with the team. Pick would be match with a dach type move to help the team while fitting the timeline.

Jets would get this pick and hope someone drops but 2 mid teen picks would be desirable to a changing core.
MTL
  1. Dubois, Pierre-Luc
Détails additionnels:
*not actual trade
2.
WPG
  1. Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (MTL)
Détails additionnels:
2024 1st round pick

This pick would most likely be moved in the case that a move at the draft doesn't work out. Protection would be on this pick most likely with top 10 making sense. This pick would be a counter to a 2023 first but comes at the risk of giving away a 2025 unprotected first depending on mtl performance.

Jets would likely prefer a 2023 first to avoid the wait on the pick and thus the process of changing the core.
MTL
3.
WPG
  1. Beck, Owen
  2. Kapanen, Oliver [Liste de réserve]
  3. Kidney, Riley
  4. Mailloux, Logan
  5. Mesar, Filip
  6. Roy, Joshua
Détails additionnels:
Asset class 2
Prospects

I included all the prospects that could be included in a deal some may be more more likely than others and one that would require only 1 prospect (roy)

Beck: young c that is probably a middle six guy that is just all around a good player
Kidney: young c that has shown qmjhl success and has more offensive playstyle buy also probably a middle sixer
Mailloux: young rhd that has size and a shot. Has controversy around him being able to play so may be a risk but fits the organizational needs better
Mesar: young winger that has offensive instincts and great offensive skill set probably middle six/2nd line guy
Roy: best guy that probably not included but here anyway as a way to demonstrate that the changing of prospects can affect how many assets are included
Kapanen: young center in liiga that has some offensive and probably a middle six to 3rd line c

Any other prospects could be included but not mentioned can be discussed in the comments to make sure that what I have here makes sense
MTL
4.
WPG
  1. Anderson, Josh
  2. Armia, Joel
  3. Dvorak, Christian
  4. Hoffman, Mike
Détails additionnels:
Asset Class 3
Nhl/cap

The nhl is a cap in cap out world so most likely some form of cap would be coming back to ensure mtl can afford him and not have an existing contract affect the teams future.

Armia: (2y 3.4m remaining) could be useful bottom six guy that he was before we traded him but may increase the return with many agms dumping with for assets
Dvorak: (2y 4.45m 8 team no trade list for those 2 years) could be a 2/3c for a couple years to replace Dubois and may be able to be flipped in the future for more assets
Hoffman (1y 4.5m) good scoring winger to help pp but would most likely be bottom six which is unideal for a guy like him (1 year would come off the books first)
Anderson:(4y 5.5m 8 team no trade list until final year 2026-2027 5 team no trade list) it honestly wouldn't be an Dubois mtl agm without him. He provides a physical role but most likely bottom six and expensive for that role.
MTL
5.
WPG
  1. Choix de 7e ronde en 2023 (MTL)
Détails additionnels:
My prediction here is based on 1 of the picks (here 2023 one) 2 of the prospects (kidney and mesar) and 1 nhl player (Dvorak)

This deal may not he exactly perfect but isn't the point but to create a way to figure out what makes sense for both sides.
MTL
    This is here for those that say to wait to ufa:
    This is the assumption that a trade is evident and most likely needs to beat the standard rental offer (1st prospect and other asset). So instead of saying that they wait respect that this is more to figure out what he's worth as a trade this offseason.

    You are entitled to you view but this is in no way saying a trade is going to happen but to figure out his new value based on the Friedman news.
    Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
    2023
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de FLA
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de NYR
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de MTL
    2024
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de WPG
    2025
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de WPG
    TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
    3482 500 000 $101 562 859 $0 $2 050 000 $-19 062 859 $
    Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    7 142 857 $7 142 857 $
    AG
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    6 125 000 $6 125 000 $
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    8 250 000 $8 250 000 $
    AD
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    4 000 000 $4 000 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
    AD, AG
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
    AG, AD, C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    3 250 000 $3 250 000 $
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    2 166 667 $2 166 667 $
    AD
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
    AG, AD
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    750 000 $750 000 $
    C, AD
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    825 000 $825 000 $
    AD
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    775 000 $775 000 $
    AG, C
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
    916 667 $916 667 $
    C
    RFA - 4
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    750 000 $750 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    750 000 $750 000 $
    AG
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
    859 167 $859 167 $
    C
    RFA - 4
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    750 000 $750 000 $
    AD, C
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
    4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
    AG
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
    4 450 000 $4 450 000 $
    C
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
    950 000 $950 000 $
    AD, C
    RFA - 4
    Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
    856 667 $856 667 $
    AG, AD
    RFA - 4
    Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
    3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
    5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
    AD, AG
    M-NTC
    UFA - 5
    Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    6 250 000 $6 250 000 $
    DG
    NMC
    UFA - 6
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    5 875 000 $5 875 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    6 166 667 $6 166 667 $
    G
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    5 950 000 $5 950 000 $
    DG/DD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
    DD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    900 000 $900 000 $
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
    897 500 $897 500 $
    DD
    RFA - 4
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    3 900 000 $3 900 000 $
    DG
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance350 000 $$350K)
    DG
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    900 000 $900 000 $
    DG
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    762 500 $762 500 $
    DG
    RFA - 2
    Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
    Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
    894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
    AG, C
    RFA - 2

    Code d'intégration

    • Pour afficher cette équipe sur un autre site Web ou blog, ajoutez ce iFrame à la page appropriée
    • Personnalisez les dimensions dans le code IFrame ci-dessous pour adapter votre site de manière appropriée. Minimum recommandé: 400px.

    Texte intégré

    Cliquer pour surligner
    27 mars 2023 à 17 h 47
    #1
    Jetsfan
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: sept. 2017
    Messages: 7,982
    Mentions "j'aime": 2,589
    Value hasnt changed.

    Either its a draft day sign and trade for a haul to MTL or a signing of a 1 year contract and trade him to any team for a one year rental.

    Either way he isnt playing on Winnipeg next year
    27 mars 2023 à 17 h 49
    #2
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: Jetman
    Value hasnt changed.

    Either its a draft day sign and trade for a haul to MTL or a signing of a 1 year contract and trade him to any team for a one year rental.

    Either way he isnt playing on Winnipeg next year


    His value has changed as the likelihood of another team trading for him for a high price based on extending is now not an option. Best case is mtl beating the rental price. The elimination of that option leaves rental, mtl or self rental.
    27 mars 2023 à 17 h 51
    #3
    You know nothing JS
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2017
    Messages: 7,028
    Mentions "j'aime": 4,418
    "Mtl needs to beat the rental offer".

    You could had stop there.
    27 mars 2023 à 17 h 53
    #4
    Hop on the Slaftrain
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: févr. 2019
    Messages: 16,162
    Mentions "j'aime": 20,483
    Very well detailed. I also proposed something along those lines earlier today - which was 2023 FLA 1st, a 2nd tier prospect with the names you have above and a roster player (if Winnipeg wants as long as MTL doesn't have to pay an extra ex. Hoffman). The roster player is not mandatory since MTL can afford Dubois without sending cap.
    Howie a aimé ceci.
    27 mars 2023 à 17 h 55
    #5
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: jpsnow13
    "Mtl needs to beat the rental offer".

    You could had stop there.


    It was more to outline it as a whole rather than a simple sentence which can be interpreted differently. I wanted to make this overview so people that don't know the whole situation can see it and learn something. Just the statement of beating the rental offer may explain it buy going into depth avoids confusion.
    27 mars 2023 à 17 h 56
    #6
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: SevenLeg
    Very well detailed. I also proposed something along those lines earlier today - which was 2023 FLA 1st, a 2nd tier prospect with the names you have above and a roster player (if Winnipeg wants as long as MTL doesn't have to pay an extra ex. Hoffman). The roster player is not mandatory since MTL can afford Dubois without sending cap.


    Yeah like my deal that I've attached to is: 2023 Florida first kidney Mailloux and Dvorak for Dubois and vesalainen. Haven't got the best feedback but I still feel like it presents positives for each side.
    27 mars 2023 à 17 h 59
    #7
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: sept. 2018
    Messages: 1,985
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,648
    This is a great breakdown of the options, extremely well done. WPG seems to be headed toward a retool with the likes of Wheeler and Scheifele on the other side of 30 and expiring after next year. I could see them looking for futures more than NHLers now, so one of Dvorak and Hoffman for cap might fit better than Anderson. They are definitely bidding against teams that would be looking to add PLD as a rental, and those teams may be looking to flip his rights to MTL next offseason to recoup some assets (maybe a 5th or 6th for the extra year on a deal), so they may be willing to add that little bit extra now to get it done.

    I think your prediction is about right: a 2023 1st, 2 prospects, and probably Dvorak.
    Howie a aimé ceci.
    27 mars 2023 à 18 h 3
    #8
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: CaseyFlyman
    This is a great breakdown of the options, extremely well done. WPG seems to be headed toward a retool with the likes of Wheeler and Scheifele on the other side of 30 and expiring after next year. I could see them looking for futures more than NHLers now, so one of Dvorak and Hoffman for cap might fit better than Anderson. They are definitely bidding against teams that would be looking to add PLD as a rental, and those teams may be looking to flip his rights to MTL next offseason to recoup some assets (maybe a 5th or 6th for the extra year on a deal), so they may be willing to add that little bit extra now to get it done.

    I think your prediction is about right: a 2023 1st, 2 prospects, and probably Dvorak.


    Yeah I like Dvorak the most to just play and don't worry about the term as he can just be used for more assets. I definitely could have included more potential prospects but me explaining every mtl prospect when I'm not a fan to begin with seemed extra. I may be optimistic on the deal I suggested but I may be undervalued it too just knowing winnipeg can't have nice things lol.
    CaseyFlyman a aimé ceci.
    27 mars 2023 à 18 h 14
    #9
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: sept. 2020
    Messages: 3,237
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,853
    thoughts on Kuzy for PLD? It would require WPG to still be going for it but they would be getting 2 years with him instead of 1. Obviously depends on WPG not being on his no trade list too
    27 mars 2023 à 18 h 28
    #10
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: qc14
    thoughts on Kuzy for PLD? It would require WPG to still be going for it but they would be getting 2 years with him instead of 1. Obviously depends on WPG not being on his no trade list too


    Definitely a no go Kuznetsov does nothing for use and we need the assets from Dubois to help the retool. Just not a fit and probably blocks the trade with the trade protection
    27 mars 2023 à 18 h 47
    #11
    You know nothing JS
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2017
    Messages: 7,028
    Mentions "j'aime": 4,418
    Quoting: Howie
    It was more to outline it as a whole rather than a simple sentence which can be interpreted differently. I wanted to make this overview so people that don't know the whole situation can see it and learn something. Just the statement of beating the rental offer may explain it buy going into depth avoids confusion.


    That's the point. No depth needed. The logic stops at MTL will never beat PLD rental market value.

    It's as simple as:

    Rental market for PLD for one playoff run > Habs offer for an additionnal season in a rebuilding year

    Friedman reporting teams touched base on the value of a Habs offer doesnt changes anything. WPG probably just want to know where to start negociations elsewhere with it.

    That's the "whole situation". Projecting a suffucient MTL offer is what creates "confusion". It's a loose-loose deal.
    habitantlecolon a aimé ceci.
    27 mars 2023 à 18 h 55
    #12
    Le patriote
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: déc. 2018
    Messages: 6,321
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,400
    Quoting: jpsnow13
    "Mtl needs to beat the rental offer".



    For me habs need to beat the Offer Sheet price (1st+3rd). So less than what Jets fans are looking for the «rental offer»!! They don't have any leverage left.
    27 mars 2023 à 18 h 58
    #13
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    For me habs need to beat the Offer Sheet price (1st+3rd). So less than what Jets fans are looking for the «rental offer»!! They don't have any leverage left.


    Yeah but an os value is a unprotected 2024 first what would rather trade?
    2023 first (17th overall) kidney kapanen and Dvorak
    2024 (unprotected could be 1st ovr) and 2024 3rd (early to mid 70s)
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 4
    #14
    Jeff Gorton
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: oct. 2020
    Messages: 2,206
    Mentions "j'aime": 519
    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    For me habs need to beat the Offer Sheet price (1st+3rd). So less than what Jets fans are looking for the «rental offer»!! They don't have any leverage left.


    habs could offer sheet at 4m (2nd round pick) for 1 year and screw the Jets. cause either they match it and cant trade him for a year or they lose him for a 2nd rounder
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 6
    #15
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: JeffGorton
    habs could offer sheet at 4m (2nd round pick) for 1 year and screw the Jets. cause either they match it and cant trade him for a year or they lose him for a 2nd rounder


    He needs to accept the os and can't be below the qo of 6m which is a minimum 1st and 3rd. It's an idea just doesn't work in reality
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 6
    #16
    I Love J Boqvist
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2023
    Messages: 11,654
    Mentions "j'aime": 3,063
    Very optimistic about the valuations of every single prospect.
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 7
    #17
    Le patriote
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: déc. 2018
    Messages: 6,321
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,400
    Quoting: Howie
    Yeah but an os value is a unprotected 2024 first what would rather trade?
    2023 first (17th overall) kidney kapanen and Dvorak
    2024 (unprotected could be 1st ovr) and 2024 3rd (early to mid 70s)


    As th offer sheet state 1st 3rd from next year, if habs add the unprotection can be lifted. So my Mailloux Dvorak Ylonen 2025 CGY 1st is an higher bid than a 1st + 3rd. a 1st, a former 1st, an active nhler and a C prospect. Not that bad as a return.
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 7
    #18
    Le patriote
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: déc. 2018
    Messages: 6,321
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,400
    Quoting: JeffGorton
    habs could offer sheet at 4m (2nd round pick) for 1 year and screw the Jets. cause either they match it and cant trade him for a year or they lose him for a 2nd rounder


    I don't think that we will pull the thrigger but yeah this could really well be it!
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 7
    #19
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    As th offer sheet state 1st 3rd from next year, if habs add the unprotection can be lifted. So my Mailloux Dvorak Ylonen 2025 CGY 1st is an higher bid than a 1st + 3rd. a 1st, a former 1st, an active nhler and a C prospect. Not that bad as a return.


    Jets would want the 2023 first as a minimum
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 8
    #20
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    As th offer sheet state 1st 3rd from next year, if habs add the unprotection can be lifted. So my Mailloux Dvorak Ylonen 2025 CGY 1st is an higher bid than a 1st + 3rd. a 1st, a former 1st, an active nhler and a C prospect. Not that bad as a return.


    You can't make an os with protection my guy lol
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 10
    #21
    Le patriote
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: déc. 2018
    Messages: 6,321
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,400
    Quoting: Howie
    Jets would want the 2023 first as a minimum


    You are not in situation of power to have any decision leverage. So it will be the year Habs decide. No other team will mess with that even for a rental. Jets have no longer leverage of any kind. If they would have liked such deal they have done it prior to tdl ...
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 11
    #22
    Le patriote
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: déc. 2018
    Messages: 6,321
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,400
    Quoting: Howie
    You can't make an os with protection my guy lol


    i'm not saying that i'm doing an OS, i'm talking about the price ... using 1st + 3rd of OS to show you that the value is way less that what you guys think it is.
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 14
    #23
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    i'm not saying that i'm doing an OS, i'm talking about the price ... using 1st + 3rd of OS to show you that the value is way less that what you guys think it is.


    But the os has the condition of no protection which makes it the most valuable thing they can get for a retool.
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 19
    #24
    Le patriote
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: déc. 2018
    Messages: 6,321
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,400
    Quoting: Howie
    But the os has the condition of no protection which makes it the most valuable thing they can get for a retool.


    yep, but i'm doing a better offer too.
    27 mars 2023 à 19 h 24
    #25
    Démarrer sujet
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: janv. 2022
    Messages: 3,972
    Mentions "j'aime": 1,430
    Quoting: habitantlecolon
    yep, but i'm doing a better offer too.


    How is that offer better lol I'd rather you guys os him as we basically get a guaranteed top 10 pick with no conditions. How is getting a pick 2 drafts later with conditions, Mailloux who has risks, ylonen who would see his value diminish and Dvorak who sure gives us a c back but ultimately isn't a need. Can you please explain how the deal is better than an os. We don't take on cap and get the best pick possible so that's kinda hard to beat.
     
    Répondre
    To create a post please Login or S'inscrire
    Question:
    Options:
    Ajouter une option
    Soumettre le sondage