So right now the Penguins obviously have a lot of issues. Here's what I think the most pressing are:
1. The 3rd line of McGinn-Carter-Kapanen is useless. They have the worst xG% of any line that's played 110+ minutes this season per Moneypuck.
2. The Penguins give up the 4th most shots per game of any team. The only goalies with a larger workload play for Columbus, Arizona, and Anaheim. That isn't good competition to have.
Those are the two issues I'm trying to fix. We can complain about goaltending all we want, but I think making Jarry and DeSmith's lives easier is a more realistic solution. All 3 of Jars, Casey, and Tik have a positive GSAx per evolving-hockey. We love piling up on Casey right now, but he's doing a better job than some of the goalies we could target to replace him (DeSmith's GSAx is 5.72. Cam Talbot is 2.61, MAF and James Reimer are both around -7). Anyway,
Adam Henrique: Massive upgrade over Jeff Carter. Instantly provides a 3C capable of sound defensive work, who can be trusted for ~20-25 goals and ~40-50 points. If I could make one aquisition, it's him. I think we need a 3C more than we need to fix any other issues. A good 2-way centerman like Rico would go a long way towards facilitating more depth scoring, and would help lessen the defense and goaltending's workload.
Kevin Labanc: Genuinely stellar defensive analytics this year. Like Rico, is on pace for ~20 goals, ~50 points. His relationship with the Sharks organization seems strained, so maybe the asking price is low. I'm also interested in Barabanov, but I think Sharks management (and maybe fans) are both more bullish on him, so he's probably more expensive for a similar return.
Jake McCabe: Would give Letang a stellar shutdown partner like Dumo was for most of his career. Instantly provides a significant uprade to the defensive core, and takes some of the burden off of Marcus Pettersson on the left.
I actually think McCabe's presence could help offensively, too. If Tanger has a reliable partner to anchor us, he can play more offensively and take more risks without us being punished for it as much.
If we can't manage to get either Labanc or Rico, Nick Bjugstad is having a surprisingly good season in Arizona, only makes 900k so the cap isn't an issue to work around, and reportedly will cost a 2nd at most. Sounds very doable to me.
Cap hit is neutral unless Hallander makes the NHL, Kappy's speed could be fun with ANA's youth.
Middle 6 players last year cost either ~1st or ~2nd+prospect. Main comparisons are Rakell and Lehkonen.
Asking price is a 1st without retention. Dumo makes the cap hit work (CHI can take his expring cap hit, and the team paying Jack Johnson cannot complain about his performance), and you're getting back one of PIT's top D prospects. Might take a little more, but this seems fair.
He's been healthy scratched a lot recently, but is a lot better than that. Sharks don't seem to want to play him. I'm more than happy to take him off their hands. Price probably isn't high.
I Like this alot, I would probably try and also get Bonino in the sharks deal to be our 4C, Poehling has been in and out with injury and simply isn't 100% would like a bit more reliable, would also like to see the likes of Nylander and Puustinen instead of DOC but doubt management see it that way
The problems with using Lehkonen and Rakell as comparables are that (1) neither was a center, and (2) both were UFAs. Henrique has the same face-off percentage as Evgeni Malkin, excels defensively to the point of killing penalties, would be fifth in goals on your team which subtle indications suggest is a better team than Anaheim, and has a year left on his contract. Plus, you're getting more retention on him than you are on McCabe, and we'd probably go all the way to half off ($2,912,500). All of which adds up to a first-round draft pick.
People are hyping up McCabe the same way Rutta was overhyped in the summer. The guy is a 2nd pair D with good overall skills, but he is far from a top pair shut down defender.
The problems with using Lehkonen and Rakell as comparables are that (1) neither was a center, and (2) both were UFAs. Henrique has the same face-off percentage as Evgeni Malkin, excels defensively to the point of killing penalties, would be fifth in goals on your team which subtle indications suggest is a better team than Anaheim, and has a year left on his contract. Plus, you're getting more retention on him than you are on McCabe, and we'd probably go all the way to half off ($2,912,500). All of which adds up to a first-round draft pick.
I'd argue that Lehkonen and Rakell are both better players than Henrique, and even still his return is a bit higher than either of them. There isn't a lot to go off of for middle-six centers recently to compare him to. Andrew Copp was a massive overpay, and even so, he had Selke votes last season. I don't exactly expect Rico to be doing that. Who else works as a comparison, Max Domi getting absolutely nothing last season? Nick Paul? There really isn't a better comparison to make. And you're getting more retention because it's a higher cap hit. It's a lower % retained.
As for Rico having scored 19 goals, he's 3rd among Ducks forwards in ice time. Someone has to score them, and he's getting the most opportunities. He's currently at 1.1 goals/60 and 2.0 points/60. Want to know who's rates are similar? Kasperi Kapanen. 0.9 goals/60, 2.3 points/60. It's the same Reason Domi is scoring so much this season - someone has to.
1. The 3rd line of McGinn-Carter-Kapanen is useless. They have the worst xG% of any line that's played 110+ minutes this season per Moneypuck.
Let me be super clear on this. The Ducks don't want Kapanen or McGinn unless there is a substantial sweetener attached.
Kapanen's scoring rates are actually at a decent clip, 2.3 points/60 minutes. That's the best out of the Pens' bottom 6. I can say with perfect confidence and a lot of hours watching Pens games this season - I am placing the vast majority of the blame for that on Carter and McGinn. Like 80% of it, maybe more. Anyone being centered by Jeff Carter is going to underperform.
You're essentially getting what Chicago intentionally signed Domi and Athanasiou for: a guy who needs a change of scenery and a second chance. I want to see his speed on a line with someone as creative as Zegras.
To be honest, I am willing for Henrique to up the offer to be centered around our '24 first if Verbeek declines what I offered, but I think what's here is reasonable. I'd argue he's not worth a '23 first, though.
Hawks accept and will take Pickering in place of Smith
Honestly I think the upside is similar, just a difference in how long before they're in an NHL lineup. Smith probably works better for the Pens since McCabe has term, but I figured Pickering would be more attractive to Chicago.
One of the better (if not best) Penguins ACGMs I've seen in a couple weeks. Was tired of the Meier/Chychrun trades and the 4 or 5 trade ACGMs. 3 trades is the max amount you could push with Hextall in this 11 day span until March 3. You also came up with realistic targets that would help this team.
Hextall would be a magician to make something happen
without using the 2023 first round pick and/or Pickering. You lay it out pretty well, he has just about no choice but to use those two assets. What's the point of waiting until 2027/2028 for this summer's first round draft pick? When Pickering arrives, Crosby and Malkin could very well be retired.
This is a solid one. D and 3rd line upgrade - that's what we need.
And thank you for being rational about the goaltending lol - especially Desmith. The guy is seeing the most high danger shots of any goalie in the league not wearing an ANA sweater.
OldNYIfan a aimé ceci.
Répondre
CapFriendly
CapFriendly