they dont have the assets to get it done. this scenario is interesting but florida has samoskevich, justin sourdif, and a second and nothing else. they need to stand pad imo

The Bobrovsky component
-Bobrovsky will waive his no trade clause because San Jose will agree to move him in the off season to a team where he might get a shot at starting. If he stays in Florida, he is the backup for the next 3 years.
-With retained salary, San Jose might be able to move him after his signing bonus is paid. Florida doesn't want to do this because they don't want to retain.
-San Jose honors the NMC and makes an agreement in principal to trade Bobrovsky with retained salary to a team he approves in the summer.
-If that is not feasible, San Jose will instead buy him out. Bobrovsky's buyout is much more palatable than Karlsson's. It is only 6 years long instead of 8, and there are only 3 years of big money. The last 3 years are negligible. (6.66 x 3 then 1.66 x 3).
-A buyout would be economically good for Bobrovsky because a majority of his salary is buyout proof. He would only lose 5 million dollars in base salary. Even with his drop in play, he would almost certainly attract a contract that allows him to recoup that. 5M over 3 years means he has to sign a contract greater than 1.67M x 3 years. The odds of him getting a contract in excess of that amount are high.

The Karlsson component:
-Karlsson would waive to go to Florida. They are a contender. He also gets a raise via taxes.
-San Jose benefits from not retaining.
-This is a pure cap move for San Jose. They increase their chances of finishing last by getting rid of Karlsson. Once they either buyout or trade Bobrovsky with retention, they free up significant cap that can be leveraged in trades for more assets.

The Hornqvist component:
-Hornqvist is in the trade to make it cap compliant.
-Florida retains 41 percent on Hornqvist.
-If San Jose is on Hornqvist's list, they could possibly work with the player to find a suitable trade destination. San Jose could retain half of Hornqvist's remaining cap hit to make him palatable to a contending team as a veteran depth forward.

The Dell component:
-Dell is a placeholder. San Jose either sends Florida a contract, or they send a player down to become cap compliant.
-Alternatively, San Jose could send Florida Reimer as a backup. They might have to retain on Reimer. Or the retention on Hornqvist would need to be rejigged.

With all of the above set up, what does Florida have to give San Jose for Karlsson?

Is this closer to a Brent Burns or Pacioretty type situation? Where the return will be minimal. Or is taking Bobrovsky's potential buyout cap hit enough that Florida would have to include a top prospect? Florida does not have a 1st round pick for many years.

Just for some further context.

A Karlsson buyout is 37.33M over 8 years with massive cap penalties in year 3 & 4 of 9.66M and 12.16M.

A Bobrovsky buyout is 25.00M over 6 years with a majority of the cap penalties paid off in years 1, 2, and 3 at 6.67M per. This means that San Jose would pay off 20M of the 25M of bad cap while they are rebuilding anyways. Karlsson's buyout has a much higher chance of disrupting a rebuild since the huge 9.66M and 12.16M come when the Sharks might be ready to turn a corner. Not to mention it is 8 years long vs Bobrovsky's 6 year buyout.

You can make the arguments about Karlsson playing like a superstar, but the reality is that is a detriment to San Jose not a plus. San Jose is not good enough to benefit from Karlsson's play, so all it does is hurt their draft position. There is no guarantee in years 3 and 4 of this rebuild a nearly 35 year old Karlsson will still be this good, so why hold on to him? If no other team will take Karlsson, moving on from him and improving the cap situation is addition by subtraction.

If I was Florida, I would not want to include a major asset because this trade is beneficial for both sides. The only way I can see San Jose having leverage to ask for a major asset is if they have a second team who can offer them a better proposition in terms of taking Karlsson without retention, or with taking back a less bad major contract.

Florida adds every asset they possibly have and it still won’t get done

Hornqvist and Bobrovsky are both bad contracts. Bobrovsky's contract might be even worse than Karlsson's since Karlsson is playing like a superstar again while Bob has lost his starting job.