You've nailed it. The nice thing here is that it actually makes sense for both teams. This is a rarity when it comes to trade proposals here.



This is part of it. Look, I get what others are saying, though I think that each of the players mentioned above are tough to compare...

Either way, as I have stated. Add and Remove parts as need be. The market is always shifting and what makes sense one year changes the next. Maybe replace the first with a second, or a third plus another prospects. Whatever. But I think the centerpiece is Holtz, plus something else, so that the sharks are adding to their future core with some certainty.

Again, the trade economy will shift. But if you ask me, would I prefer the version of the team I've outlined above, vs what we have now, I'd take the former. With all the considerations that come with it. And in this case, it's actually a realistic proposal that would benefit all parties.

I get it, we don't NEED to make the move (neither does San Jose), but I think it makes sense and in the long run is pretty low risk. Grow a pair, guys!

With Timo NJ becomes a powerhouse in the east. Timo isn't as good a finisher as Debrincat but he is a higher impact player with his shot volume, physicality and forechecking dominance. Frankly I'm okay with SJ keeping him and building around Hertl and Meier. But if were offered Holtz and a 1st + I think Grier takes it.

Mike isn't going to sell low on Timo.

Yah that's my thought. And you hit on something that I think other NJ fans are missing: Timo is a 6 foot power style forward. He has a lot of the attributes we have been looking for in terms of bringing not only offense but physicality. And while SJ has a lot of decent pieces, you could argue that parking him next to a player like Jack Hughes would probably unlock a whole new level of play. I'm not saying Seguin / Benn levels, but I'm not NOT saying it either... Consider this core, in terms of talent and age:

bucket 1: Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Meier, Hamilton, Luke Hughes (yah I'm penciling him in early)
bucket 2: Sharangovich, Mercer, Marino, Seigenthaler
butcket 3: Zetterlund, Wood, Nemec (who will probably be in the second or first bucket in short order)

along with VV in net and some reliable play from Schmid / Daws ... As stated, this team would be a guaranteed powerhouse. The type where, some yearrs you win, some you fall short, but the highs would be very high, perennial cup contending type team. I don't see why you wouldn't roll the dice on that possibility.

Again, thanks all for the engagement, fun conversation!

Not to mention Timo could line up with his fellow Swiss countryman Hischier.

I'm just gushing imagining a future sharks top line of Eklund-Hertl-Holtz. Unless we get Bedard....

Right. Again, I've posted and viewed lots of things on the armchair gm here, but rarely do you see a deal where fans of both teams can salivate at the prospect of a trade working out (personally, when I post a trade, I'm more curious about the opposing team's opinion than the devil fans). And I think Devils fans are massively underrating Meier. Again, Meier with Hughes or Hischier, along with Bratt!? Add on Sharangovich and Mercer, and you have maybe one of the best top six in the league.

To me the biggest concern on the devils side is the cap hit. Though, I'd think Timo would be receptive, no? Again, who knows. But I think it's ridiculous for these teams to not at least be talking...

Timo will get about 8.5-8.75

funny how you leave out Tkatchuk who is a closer comp.
Stone and Debrincat and Fiala were all undersells for different reasons and teams were in a time crunch to sell.
and Giroux was an aging rental and Meier isn’t exactly a rental unless that’s your choice.

well if the offers is what your saying sharks would be stupid to sell.

your a great poster with details explanation i enjoy reading your responses

"[my team's GM] isn't going to sell low on [my team's trade block winger]" has been said so many times on this site in the last several years. And then they're always sold below the ACGM proposals.

this is what every Minnesota, Chicago, and Philly fan said last year.

What every Ranger and Sabres fan said the years before

except we have no reason not to resign him other than wanting to reset the lineup for the future but meier fits our future

- said every Chicago, New York, and Minnesota fan in the last few years

like its the same song and dance. "we have no reason to move this player if we're getting lowballed like this"

and then they move him.

flip the script would you trade a guy like Meier for that return?

I'd certainly /want/ a lot, but I'm also pretty confident we know the cost of wingers is pretty well below what we see on this site from home fans. Like I know the Devils will get less than the fans want if they trade Bratt, yaknow?

what i want for Meier is a Tkatchuk return. top line wing top 4 D and a 1st lol

Well, then I guess if you have Meier on Tkachuk's level, wanting Holtz and a first for him makes sense!

so to you Holtz and your 23 1st is as valuable as Huberdeau weegar and a 25 1st? and you think I inflate my teams player? lol

...no? I didnt say that. I said if you think Meier is on Tkachuk's level, and you understand that the price will come in below your want, it makes sense that you think holtz and a 1 is the return.

Of course, Meier is /not/ on Tkachuk's level, so it's moot. Tkachuk was an MVP-level player last year.

Meier is in the Fiala/Debrincat/Buchnevich category

I'm not gonna argue that the team isn't made better in the immediate by trading Holtz + 1st + Foote for Meier, it clearly is.
But I don't think trading for immediate gain is a very good way to build a long lasting stanley cup contender, I think constantly having your eye to the future is generally more important.
In the NHL, the team trading with the future in mind will almost always come out of the trade in a better shape than how they entered it.

The way I visualize the tradeoffs from acquiring Meier now is how it affects the Devils competitive window.
Let's say the Devils currently have the tools to contend from now (given how they're playing I think it's fair to say the Devils are a dark horse at least) and ten years into the future.
(1) Then we do your suggested trade for Meier, the competitive window widens immediately by some degree.
But the window remains open for a shorter duration, as high value futures are dealt away (and NHLers regress heavily on average when they enter their 30s), let's say the Devils lose two years of competitiveness on the backend of the window.

But wait a minute, that 1st + Holtz (and Foote) are not yet developed assets, what does that mean for the window?
(2) I think that the on-ice value of a future roster player on an ELC + whatever Holtz develops into will widen the competitive window also.
In fact I think the window will be widened just as much by having Holtz just entering his prime and that 2023 pick making the NHL than the value gained by plugging Meier into the lineup.
Not now of course, but I'd bet that the lineup for season 24-25 (and future season) will be better off by having Holtz and that 2023 draft pick in it (+ the cap space considerations) than having a 28 year old Timo Meier.
And remember, not trading those futures away for Meier means that this Devils team will likely contend for a longer period into the future.

You make a valid point in uncertainty of prospects, completely fair, but I'd argue that Meier also carries uncertainty with his 10m QO poison pill.
(3) The leverage Meier has against whatever team tries to negotiate his extension has to be priced into any trade for him.

Given how well the forwards are performing, despite having Palat and Bastian out injured, (4) the marginal gains of plugging Meier into the current lineup are diminished.
The Devils don't 'really need' to get Meier into the lineup right now.

Anyway, these are some frames I think any acquisition in the NHL needs to be considered through.
Just to say, Meier is a very good hockey player.
I would be fine with trading Holtz (+ a smaller add, like Foote or a 2nd etc) for Meier given the current landscape, and if Fitzgerald could get a long-term extension not exceeding 8.5m aav.

Sorry for getting a little long-winded.
I appreciate the tone you created here in this AGM, lots of good discussion in here.

If the late 2023 1st is giving so much heartache to NJD fans then resolve with a 2nd + other good prospects since NJD is loaded with them. People insinuating it would be a 1-1 are insane, Holtz doesn't hold a candle to Meier's value and may never develop to that level which is part of the risk SJ takes and that gets considered in trade value just like Meier's contract QO risk. A Holtz swap with Meier just makes so much sense for both teams so I hope the GMs make it happen, but also it's fine for both if they don't

Meier is above Fiala & Debrincat but below Tkatchuk in my personal opinion.

The facts that give me this opinion are that right now Meier leads the leauge in shots on goal and individual scoring chances and is on a 40+ goal pace after scoring 35 last year.

I also feel Fiala and Debrincat were traded in a rush to get picks at the draft, for Min it was cap crunch issues and trying to get a return on a player they could no longer afford, for Debrincat it was that Chicago was selling to rebuild the team.

Sharks aren’t in a cap crunch like Min so they have the luxury of waiting and holding onto him and worst case sign the QO or go to arbitration. this means they are in a similar situation to Tkatchuk. sharks with Meier also hold the best player possibly available at the deadline by a significant margin ( Towes and Kane are available as well but both have much higher cap hits and also are ten years older).
Holtz and 23 1st return for Meier to me is less value for the player than Huberdeau and Weegar plus the 25 1st. was for the value of Tkatchuk. but Holtz and a 1st is a better return than that of Fiala and Debrincat.
that’s why I feel it’s fair!
don’t get me wrong before the trade NJD would have to talk with Meier’s agent and gauge the value he is looking for on his next deal and the likelyhood of resigning him first but this is what i feel is fair value if NJD really want a player like Meier.

I love your logic here and think your being very smart about weighing the value of your pieces over the value of the Player available and I would agree with you normally.

my one contention is your undervaluing Meier. he is just hitting his prime, has been fairly healthy throughout his career despite playing a power forward game and leads the leauge in shots and Individual scoring chances while also being high on the list in dangerous scoring chances as well.
he is better than i think people on the east coast realize because he plays while most east coast fans are sleeping.
plus being 26 if he signs a 7/8 year deal this offseason his contract is up in his age 32 or 33 season which is usually where most players prime starts to end. meaning your getting full value from his deal and not 4-5 good years and 2-4 diminishing years of play.
Holtz is a good to really good prospect but even you can admit that his potential is less than that of what we’re seeing from Meier now meaning a 1 for 1 is not logical or fair and would be widely considered that NJD fleeced the Sharks, even with the 1st that’s going to end up being 22-28 range based on the way NJD are playing and taking into account adding a player like Meier, even in a deep draft like there is no guaranty that pick ever becomes something as valuable as a top line wing or top 4 D.
Your thoughts are sound and I am not bashing or arguing against them but remember nothing is ever guarantied and giving up chances now for the cup does not guaranty chances down the road, injuries and player slumps and prospects failing to live up to potential can rob you of potential down the road.

Appreciate it.
I admit it's easy to get tied up in snarkiness on here when two fanbases have a back and forth on one issue over a couple of weeks (burnt a lot of bridges with Wild fans on here talking about Fiala in the summer).

On the topic of non-guaranteed impact from draft picks or prospects vs. sure-thing star players, a lot of my thinking about Meier (but also hockey player ages in general) can be traced through this research linked below (the Twitter thread is more easily digestible, but if you're so inclined do check out the paper as well):

https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.14017

I'll concede that Holtz reaching Meier's current level is quite low, like 10% or so.
I'll concede that the 2023 draft pick (22-28th overall) reaching Meier's current level is a little lower further.

But I'm not convinced that the value Meier will provide over the next 8 years will be greater than Holtz + the 2023 1st + the cap space considerations combined.
I obviously don't know that for certain, but that's the bet I'd be willing to make today.
That's also why my previous point about extending the backend and delaying the opening of competitive windows generally make a lot more sense to me than accelerating that process.
Taking the linked research seriously, I think there's a very good chance that in 3 years time, one of Alexander Holtz or whomever the Devils draft in the 2023 1st round will be an outright better player than Timo Meier aged 29.

In other words, I don't think any team would get 'full value' from an 8 year Meier deal
I'd like to reiterate that I'm open to the idea of trading Holtz + a lesser add for Meier however.

I get the feeling talking with most hockey fans that they truly don't believe (or know rather) that for most players their peak ends very soon into their careers, between age 23 - 25.
It's not a very intuitive idea but that's what the research suggests.

Also, I'm Swedish so keeping up with the Devils is quite a struggle in and of itself lol.

Keeping Holtz and that 1st over Meier is a very logical step, and one a GM with solid footing might/ should make (or not make in this instance).

I also know the sharks made a big impact deal for Karlsson that blew up in their face when Norris blew up and the sharks tanked giving Ottawa Stutzie and the sharks gor multiple bad years from Karlsson till this year. so believe me when I say I 100% understand and agree with your stance.

But I also know GM are always on the hot seat and don't know how long they will be employed plus owners typically want to win now, and that pushes things from logical to not sometimes.
If the NJD ownership is short minded and focused on winning now they might push this kind of deal through and if the GM is on the hot seat this kind of deal could save his job.

there are a lot of variables that makes me think this deal might happen and Meier gives NJD the better shot at making the playoffs and potentially winning rounds over Holtz and the 1st in the next 3-4 years.
taking into consideration that each home playoff game is roughly 1.5-3 million in added revenue pushing for a better team now could outweigh the long term gains you mentioned.

In short your making the better move for the future not doing the trade but this is the sort of deal teams make to win now and i see Meier being dealt for this or a very similar package before the deadline.