Forums/Armchair-GM

Most likely NCAA players to become NHL stars

Créé par: NHLfan10506
Date de création initiale: 29 nov. 2022
Publié: 29 nov. 2022
Équipe: 2022-23 Équipe du client
Description
Using Hockey Prospecting's probabilities of becoming a star.

Top-10 in NCAA today: % Star (% NHLer)

1. Luke Hughes, LHD, NJD: 86% (89%)
2. Adam Fantilli, C, 2023: 76 (82)
3. Lane Hutson, LHD, MTL: 69% (81%)
4. Ryan Ufko, RHD, NSH: 61% (76%)
5. Logan Cooley, C, ARI: 41% (84%)

6. Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, STL: 34% (59%)
7. Scott Morrow, RHD, CAR: 33% (58%)
8. Matthew Coronato, C/W, CGY: 30% (79%)
9. Seamus Casey, RHD, NJD: 28% (58%)
10. Jeremy Wilmer, C/W, undrafted: 26% (61%)

(all the guys listed in lineup, bench, taxi are all NCAA players with 5% or higher)

(For goalies, they don't have "star probabilities", so I used "NHL probabilities" instead)

1. Cole Brady, G, NJD: 31%
2. Kaiden Mberko, G, 2023: 30%
3. Carter Gylander, G, DET: 30%
4. Drew Commesso, G, CHI: 29%
5. Jakub Dobes, G, MTL: 27%
6. Magnus Chrona, G, SJS: 27%
7. Arseni Sergeyev, G, CGY: 25%
8. Hugo Ollas, G, NYR: 24%
9. Aku Koskenvuo, G, VAN: 23%
10 (t). Basse, Clark, Haider, Levi, Muszelik: 22%


-----------


My take...Guys that should be on this list:
-- Brock Faber, RHD, MIN: 2% (23%)
-- Jackson Lacombe, LHD, ANA: 3% (53%)
-- Gavin Brindley, W, 2023: 4% (18%)
-- Aidan McDonough, C/W, VAN: 0% (33%)
-- Carter Mazur, W, DET: 0% (32%)
-- Alex Campbell, RW, NSH: 0% (20%)

The goalies are interesting. I'd probably have something like...
-- Tier I: Levi, Perets
-- Tier II: Dobes, Commesso
-- Tier III: Chrona, Mberko, Brady, Portillo
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2382 500 000 $21 850 000 $0 $0 $60 650 000 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
PHI - Gauthier, Cutter
950 000 $
2023 - Fantilli, Adam
950 000 $
STL - Snuggerud, Jimmy
950 000 $
Undrafted - Wilmer, Jeremy
950 000 $
ARI - Cooley, Logan
950 000 $
CGY - Coronato, Matthew
950 000 $
DAL - Martino, Ayrton
950 000 $
CHI - Nazar, Frank
950 000 $
FLA - Samoskevich, Mackie
950 000 $
TBL - Howard, Isaac
950 000 $
CHI - Greene, Ryan
950 000 $
2023 - Wood, Matthew
950 000 $
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
NJD - Hughes, Luke
950 000 $
NSH - Ufko, Ryan
950 000 $
NJD - Brady, Cole
950 000 $
MTL - Hutson, Lane
950 000 $
CAR - Morrow, Scott
950 000 $
2023 - Mberko, Kaiden
950 000 $
CAR - Fensore, Dom
950 000 $
NJD - Casey, Seamus
950 000 $
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
WPG - McGroarty, Rutger
950 000 $
2023 - Stramel, Charlie
950 000 $
ANA - Thrun, Henry
950 000 $
Équipe de réserve
FLA - Benning, Michael
950 000 $ (0 $)
COL - Behrens, Sean
950 000 $ (0 $)
MTL - Farrell, Sean
950 000 $ (0 $)
SJS - Lund, Cameron
950 000 $ (0 $)
SEA - Jugnauth, Tyson
950 000 $ (0 $)
MIN - Peart, Jack
950 000 $ (0 $)
TOR - Knies, Matthew
950 000 $ (0 $)
CAR - Blake, Jackson
950 000 $ (0 $)
2023 - Gustafsson, Lukas
950 000 $ (0 $)
NJD - Salminen, Samu
950 000 $ (0 $)
CBJ - Ceulemans, Corson
950 000 $ (0 $)

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29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 18
#1
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Here is the source: HockeyProspecting.com
29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 19
#2
we miss leo k
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Looked up Jeremy Wilmer because thought that was crazy high numbers for an undrafted guy - do these numbers take into account physical attributes or just base it on performance?
29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 21
#3
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This list lost all credibility when Devon Levi was no where to be found, insane. I know not your list and you said he should have been, but wild still
29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 25
#4
Lenny7
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Hot take from a Ducks fan-Henry Thrun > Jackson Lacombe. Potentially losing both to free agency would be a big kick in the shins.
29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 32
#5
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Looked up Jeremy Wilmer because thought that was crazy high numbers for an undrafted guy - do these numbers take into account physical attributes or just base it on performance?


Its a probability model, so it takes past and current data, run it all through simulations, and count up the outcomes to determine probability.

Run by a guy named Byron Bader
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29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 34
#6
Hurricane Waddell
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I become more enamored the more I watch Jackson Blake at UND
29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 35
#7
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Quoting: Lenny7
Hot take from a Ducks fan-Henry Thrun > Jackson Lacombe. Potentially losing both to free agency would be a big kick in the shins.


Isn't Thrun buddies with Zegras?
Am guessing Thrun will sign with Ducks.
But Lacombe may walk to try and sign in Minnesota.
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29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 39
#8
we miss leo k
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Its a probability model, so it takes past and current data, run it all through simulations, and count up the outcomes to determine probability.

Run by a guy named Byron Bader


Interesting tool and appreciate you sharing some paywalled stuff. Asked about Wilmer cuz he's a little guy (5'6", 155) and wasn't sure if his crazy USHL numbers were doing a lot of the heavy lifting for him there. I love finding those undrafted guys that might develop late and turn into a surprise player down the line.
29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 41
#9
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Quoting: Caniac555
I become more enamored the more I watch Jackson Blake at UND


I have been bullish on Blake for a couple of years.
Poor guy was barred late from HS hockey his sophomore year, too late to do a split season.
Then joined a ridiculously loaded Chicago team for Junior year and didn't really get big role.
That was it pre-draft.
Finally shinned after being drafted in 4th rd.
If he were six weeks younger, he would have been top-20 pick in 2022.
He is a dynamo.
29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 46
#10
Lenny7
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Isn't Thrun buddies with Zegras?
Am guessing Thrun will sign with Ducks.
But Lacombe may walk to try and sign in Minnesota.


Yeah, that's my understanding...*hoping* he (or both) signs, but you never know.
29 nov. 2022 à 11 h 50
#11
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Quoting: Lenny7
Yeah, that's my understanding...*hoping* he (or both) signs, but you never know.


Ian Moore ... just wait. Better pro package.
You'll forget about these two.
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29 nov. 2022 à 12 h 1
#12
Shibbal18
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not sure what the criteria is, but Cole Brady has played 30 games total in 3 years of college and has transferred schools, has over a 3 GAA and a .909 sv%, idk how that gets you the #1 spot on NHL probabilities so im not sure if that site is worth 25$
29 nov. 2022 à 12 h 3
#13
Dr_Invictus
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Good ACGM. I like it
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29 nov. 2022 à 12 h 11
#14
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Quoting: Shibbal18
not sure what the criteria is, but Cole Brady has played 30 games total in 3 years of college and has transferred schools, has over a 3 GAA and a .909 sv%, idk how that gets you the #1 spot on NHL probabilities so im not sure if that site is worth 25$


Not sure how this goalie list ended up like this (I mentioned this in intro). My guess that that he has enough unknown, which allows the model to project more deviation from the norm, and he has more positive outcomes in their simulations.
29 nov. 2022 à 12 h 12
#15
Lenny7
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Ian Moore ... just wait. Better pro package.
You'll forget about these two.


100% agree. I have him as our top RD prospect, ahead of Warren/Luneau/Helleson right now.
29 nov. 2022 à 14 h 7
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Can’t wait for toronto fans to start whining about knies.
 
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