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2022-23 NHL Season Discussion Thread #5: Montreal’s youngster wonders

21 nov. 2022 à 11 h 39
#351
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Quoting: Alfie11
I mean he’s played 22 career games. There are 15 teams he’s never played lol, it’s not that special. Crosby scoring his first ever goal in the United Center last night was surprising though


isles always get shutout by inexperienced goaltenders
21 nov. 2022 à 11 h 43
#352
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
With the certainty of cap increase in the next couple year and major ones in that does that devalue players? KSIxSKULLS

Would Hagel get 2 firsts if it was this year?


I'd say it increases player values (especially cheap ones like Hagel with multiple years left). Don't think we ever see those values drop. We will just see giant increases on long term contracts for young players and giant contracts in free agency.

As for the Hagel question, the answer is yes. For a middle 6 winger (with top 6 upside) on that cheap of a contract with multiple years left, it is worth it.
21 nov. 2022 à 11 h 45
#353
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Quoting: justaBoss
Not necessarily devalue players, but it'd change circumstances. Such a thing would be, with the cap increasing, unlikely to happen again.

Hagel is still valuable as a cheap 40 point option, but it's true that majority of his increased value came from the fact the cap was so tight league wide.


Think it's a perfect scenario and unlikely to happen again. A younger Stanley Cup favorite with many promising futures. There aren't many teams in that scenario, Colorado & Tampa are really the only teams who should be doing that. Maybe New Jersey, but nobody knows if they are legit.
21 nov. 2022 à 11 h 52
#354
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Quoting: Sklikly
Whether Dom has the Blues at 1% of making the playoffs or 100% if they make the playoffs you're a happy fan. So why are you so damn fired up about some random guys probability chart lol


Because I pay them for journalism. I think it's hilarious he's going to end up with egg on his face yet again.
21 nov. 2022 à 11 h 53
#355
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
Maybe New Jersey, but nobody knows if they are legit.

Slander
21 nov. 2022 à 11 h 56
#356
dont Devil my graph
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
Think it's a perfect scenario and unlikely to happen again. A younger Stanley Cup favorite with many promising futures. There aren't many teams in that scenario, Colorado & Tampa are really the only teams who should be doing that. Maybe New Jersey, but nobody knows if they are legit.

Just to say, I didn't really think of Tampa and Colorado as very young teams when they won their cups.
Colorado's core is pretty much all middle aged in hockey terms and Tampa feel like quite an old team to me.
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21 nov. 2022 à 12 h 38
#357
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Quoting: Tintin
I think the reasons why Dom's modelling is sceptical regarding the Blues is because they've been a terrible team in terms of xG% going back to the 20-21 season, like bottom third every single year.
Therefore the model has no banked confidence in the Blues being able to sustain anything close to its current form, the current lack of confidence being exacerbated
While the Blues have been spending the last two seasons and some change being a terrible 5v5 team getting carried by unsustainably good shooting and ridiculously good goaltending (see Husso), Minnesota (and Toronto for that matter) have consistently performed very well in terms of xG% which is why the model is more confident in them making the playoffs.
The legacy of model trust / distrust is also a variable explaining why playoff percentages doesn't rise and fall at the same rates for different teams in-season.

In any case, the reasons above are likely to explain a lot more as to why Dom's model doesn't think the Blues are making the playoffs than a not so secret conspiracy on part of Dom to intentionally knock the Blues down a peg or two.
If Dom were thumbing the scales, we would've found that out already expressed in terms of variable input vs modelling output discrepancies.
As far as I know, no one has been able to report and provide proof of such a claim however.


A few quick points of order:

- The Blues were +29 5v5 (and +36 at even strength) last season. Not sure how that qualifies as terrible.

- The Blues have shot have shot 10.2%, 10.3% and 12.0% the last three seasons. Considering they switched to a style of play that prefers to play for higher percentage chances instead of volume shooting (another factor that dulls their xG numbers), that sounds pretty darn sustainable. They simply have had and still have a lot of good shooters, and a lot of good passers, which allows the good shooters a lot of good looks at goal.

- It's kinda hard to point out specific output discrepancies without knowing the formula he has built the model on.

- Detroit, who has been brutal the entire time that his model covers and now stand well behind the Blues on xG share (44%) are higher than the Blues (20%). Vancouver, who have been rough for the last two seasons, have a 46% xG share, but he has them 27% to make the playoffs. Winnipeg who have been pretty meh in recent seasons are also below the Blues on xG share... 56%. The Isles, who were bad last season are below the Blues in xG share this season... 30%. Nashville hasn't been anything special the last couple seasons and has a lesser record, but hey, their current xG share is <1% higher... 36%.

I fully get the whole xG thing, and it would make sense if the playoff percentage disparity was a lot smaller. It doesn't explain a 60% edge for the team with a lesser record. Especially considering the Blues have 49% 5v5 xG share this season despite a bad shooting slump during the losing streak (and uncharacteristically weak special teams thus far). That 5v5 xG share is two whole points better than Colorado's this season. And Minnesota's is 50%, hardly anything to explain the wild disparity. Meanwhile, everyone else doing these projections with a model has the Blues anywhere from 26% to 53%, and the 26% is a big outlier. All the rest have them between 38% and 53% (or 2x-2.8x higher).

It's not adding up, my friend. Seems fairly obvious, too. He makes no secret of his disdain for the Blues, openly admitting that is due to how poorly he bets on them, and their fans. It's a nauseatingly constant theme.
21 nov. 2022 à 12 h 38
#358
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Quoting: Alfie11
I mean he’s played 22 career games. There are 15 teams he’s never played lol, it’s not that special. Crosby scoring his first ever goal in the United Center last night was surprising though


Every win Leafs have had against Isles was with the backup for the past 3 years

Dont know why but its a thing

Hutchinson
Woll
Mrazek
etc

So games really dont matter. Like Woll played less games and still won with a SO
21 nov. 2022 à 13 h 9
#359
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https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/653928?post_id=3686084

don't understand why Habs fans think Anderson is worth anywhere near this much
21 nov. 2022 à 13 h 31
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Sklikly how do you like Sergachev this year? I haven't watched many Tampa games but I was predicting a breakout year after the playoffs performance last year. I think he is the major reason they sold McDonough. Statistically looks like he is performing nicely.


Sergachev has been better than in prior years, especially considering the increased ice time. He's been excelling offensively, has a great first pass and has been getting time on PP1 over Hedman. Physical with a quick stick but still prone to defensive blunders (see game against Dallas which gifted them a goal which brought the game to OT) that have stopped him really stopped him from really taking that next step into being a No.1 dman. For now, in my opinion he would excel the most in a No.3 dman spot, and is serviceable at his current No.2 spot. He plays his best when he's producing points, which he has been.

Overall his progress is making that extension more reasonable than when it was initially signed in the offseason.


On another note, Perbix has been very impressive.
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21 nov. 2022 à 13 h 39
#361
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Quoting: aadoyle
Every win Leafs have had against Isles was with the backup for the past 3 years

Dont know why but its a thing

Hutchinson
Woll
Mrazek
etc

So games really dont matter. Like Woll played less games and still won with a SO


Murray is starting Wednesday against the NJD, according to Yahoo. Is he not dressing tonight?
21 nov. 2022 à 13 h 41
#362
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Quoting: Sklikly
Sergachev has been better than in prior years, especially considering the increased ice time. He's been excelling offensively, has a great first pass and has been getting time on PP1 over Hedman. Physical with a quick stick but still prone to defensive blunders (see game against Dallas which gifted them a goal which brought the game to OT) that have stopped him really stopped him from really taking that next step into being a No.1 dman. For now, in my opinion he would excel the most in a No.3 dman spot, and is serviceable at his current No.2 spot. He plays his best when he's producing points, which he has been.

Overall his progress is making that extension more reasonable than when it was initially signed in the offseason.


On another note, Perbix has been very impressive.


Statistically, Sergachev is blowing Hedman out of the water so far this season. I'm sure the scoring gap will close as the season progresses, but Serg has been a revelation for the Bolts and a major reason for their success.
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21 nov. 2022 à 13 h 48
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Quoting: Brian2016
Statistically, Sergachev is blowing Hedman out of the water so far this season. I'm sure the scoring gap will close as the season progresses, but Serg has been a revelation for the Bolts and a major reason for their success.


Statistically yes, not sure how his analytics have looked this year though.
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21 nov. 2022 à 13 h 50
#364
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Quoting: Brian2016
Murray is starting Wednesday against the NJD, according to Yahoo. Is he not dressing tonight?


Yep. Got to give him a break as hes played the last 3 so its backups turn

Samsonov is officially back to but he wont play till next week

Wondering when hes back whats gonna happen

Tandem or Murray 60% of starts, Sammy 40%. To me a 50/50 split should be fair for both as to me both have made strong cases to be our starter.
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21 nov. 2022 à 14 h 6
#365
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21 nov. 2022 à 14 h 52
#366
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Friedman needs new sources

As some guy told him Toronto would not be able to afford Frank Vatrano's cap hit even at 50% retained.....

Um does that person not realize Muzzin be on LTIR for the season 5.625mill is sitting right there
21 nov. 2022 à 15 h 15
#367
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anyone out there with 20 grand to burn?
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21 nov. 2022 à 15 h 33
#368
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Quoting: oilersguy




anyone out there with 20 grand to burn?


just take out a loan man, we're all broke too
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21 nov. 2022 à 15 h 40
#369
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Quoting: Bobcat205
just take out a loan man, we're all broke too


well I meant they could buy that jersey if they had the money and the interest
21 nov. 2022 à 16 h 10
#370
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Quoting: oilersguy
well I meant they could buy that jersey if they had the money and the interest


i think if anyone had 20 grand sitting around they wouldnt be on a hockey forum, they'd actually be doing something useful with their lives
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21 nov. 2022 à 16 h 34
#371
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Quoting: zk97
i think if anyone had 20 grand sitting around they wouldnt be on a hockey forum, they'd actually be doing something useful with their lives

@csick
21 nov. 2022 à 16 h 46
#372
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Quoting: oilersguy
well I meant they could buy that jersey if they had the money and the interest


Quoting: zk97
i think if anyone had 20 grand sitting around they wouldnt be on a hockey forum, they'd actually be doing something useful with their lives


you would have to have a lot more that 20k sitting around to spend 20k on a jersey. More like 1m so you wouldn't feel it and could actually justify spending 20k on a jersey. Unless you were sure it was going to increase in value and you considered it an investment.
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21 nov. 2022 à 17 h 6
#373
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Quoting: oilersguy
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/653928?post_id=3686084

don't understand why Habs fans think Anderson is worth anywhere near this much


Most fanbases tend to way overvalue their players. This trade proposal is a clear example. Anderson's cap hit makes any trade to a contender problematic, b/c of the cost of salary retention.
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21 nov. 2022 à 17 h 9
#374
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Quoting: Tintin
Just to say, I didn't really think of Tampa and Colorado as very young teams when they won their cups.
Colorado's core is pretty much all middle aged in hockey terms and Tampa feel like quite an old team to me.


Should of said "Prime" not old like Pittsburgh or Washington (when they were contenders the last 3-4 years)
21 nov. 2022 à 17 h 23
#375
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A question, and also bit of a hot take.

Has Ovechkin been at any stage of his career the best player in the world?

Alternatively, has Ovechkin been at any stage of his career the best Russian player in NHL?

I think there's a debate to be had on both points.
 
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