This trade hinges, of course, on Alex Formenton being able to get a contract signed and, if I'm not mistaken, have to erase any rumor of involvement in scandal??

But, anyway, if all works out, then the Coyotes get a great prospect in Boucher, plus a young NHL ready player, while the Sens get rid of a problem of theirs in Formenton, and give up a prospect for a player that I believe can easily fit on their third line on RW, and at 25 years of age might be approaching a breakout of some sort this year.

All healthy:
Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson
DeBrincat - Stutzle - Giroux
Joseph - Pinto - Fischer
Brassard - Kastelic - Motte

Boucher for Fischer might fly but nobody is going to take Formenton.

Fischer is a 3rd line forward. He might be a rental, because he is arbitration eligible and has a resume that will make teams apprehensive that he will get more than the 1.5M or so he is worth in arbitration. Optimistically, he is worth a 3rd round pick. Realistically, he is worth a 4th-7th round pick.

Any trade that involves Boucher, you have to look at it from the Senators POV. They have no reason to trade Boucher. They value him as a first round talent. If you see Boucher as being worth less than that, like this trade proposes, it makes zero sense to include him. It's not efficient for Ottawa.

Formenton is probably worth something similar to Fischer. A mid or late round pick. If he wasn't facing the issues he is facing and was signed to a bridge deal, he would be worth a lot more. We're talking about a speedy 23 year old who scored 18 goals last year. Very few teams will be in a position to acquire him because of the scrutiny of saying 'hey we're going to gamble a 4th round pick that he didn't do anything wrong". Because of the dynamic of where Arizona falls in the hockey world, they might be one of the few teams who can do that.

Fischer for Formenton makes sense. Take away all the other noise. Unless Fischer continues scoring like he is now (he probably won't), he's worth a 4th round pick at the deadline. Maybe a 3rd on the absolute high end, or maybe a 5th-7th on the low end. Somewhere in that range. Throw in a conditional 4th round pick a few years down the line with the condition crafted in a way where Formenton has to play x amount of games in 23-24 or 24-25 for it to not transfer. That way if he never plays again the Coyotes still get an asset for Fischer.

I don't think there is any universe where Formenton can come back to Ottawa. Even in a scenario where his name is 100 percent cleared, there will be way too much negative publicity. Especially with the Senators attempting to sell the team. They won't want to deal with that.

(Disclaimer: Obviously all speculation, all the Formenton stuff is alleged, we don't know what he did or didn't do, nothing has been proven, I am only speculating on a trade, etc, etc, please don't Brian Burke me.)

There is no universe where the Senators trade Boucher for a 26 year old third liner, who they might be a rental due to arbitration.

I agree, that Boucher is not worth a top 10 pick league wide. That doesn't matter though. All that matters is what the Senators value him at. If the Sens value him as a project worth a first round pick, they aren't trading him for a 3rd line winger.

I'd agree that due to age and contract Boucher is worth more than Fischer but Boucher for Fischer straight up is a lot closer to reality than what was proposed here. Formenten's negative value is that bad.

The point is that even if the league views both Boucher and Fischer as being worth a 3rd-6th round pick, the Senators don't view Boucher that way.

Value is not static. Especially with prospects. It varies from team to team. That is why it draft lists can be so different. It is also why it usually makes more sense to trade a draft pick than a prospect. It is not always efficient to trade a prospect, because both sides have to have the same evaluation of the value of the prospect.

The 2021 draft was unique. I don't think the Senators value Boucher as a top 10 talent, but I think they value him much higher than say a 3rd round pick. They also have no reason to trade him, because he brings a very unique element to the table that they won't find anywhere else. There are very few enforcers left in the game because the average level of skill is so high that teams cannot risk the liability of having an enforcer on the ice. It's the reason why Ryan Reaves was so valuable a few years ago relative to his level of production and play. Ryan Reaves continues to get inflated contracts relative to his level of play (8-10 minutes a night, 5-20 points a season) because he can play NHL hockey at a 4th line skill level as a physical presence and an enforcer. The Senators badly need more of a physical presence in their lineup going forward. Given the complexity of the 2021 draft, if Boucher turns into a Ryan Reaves bottom 6 type who plays for the Senators for 10 years, I think the Senators staff will be very happy with that pick. That's a difficult piece to get. If he turns into anything better than that, like a middle 6 forward, that pick is a home run.

In short, Boucher is a lot more important to Ottawa than whatever the average value of a prospect with his on ice resume is because he brings a very unique physical presence. Ottawa badly needs that.

I like Boucher precisely because he has good size and grit but pegging him to be an NHL enforcer is a pretty big stretch at least until he proves something by beating the crap out of a 2nd rate no skill goon like Zach Kassian.