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Cap Crunch next year - even with max cap increase

Créé par: Mattkenn
Équipe: 2023-24 Sénateurs d'Ottawa
Date de création initiale: 2 nov. 2022
Publié: 2 nov. 2022
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
This example is to justify trading a first for Mayo - Who has a unique contract in the NHL right now.

Keep in mind this exercise is barring a MAXIMUM cap increase of 4.5 million - that is not exactly likely.

1. Pinto is playing himself into at the very least a 3M AAV extension, even for two years - Might be much higher if longer term.

2. Zub, as a UFA will be worth at the very least 4.5 AAV but probably closer two 5 or 6... especially if the cap goes up this much and teams have room to overpay for the few good RD on the market.

3. Brannstrom is looking for a longterm contract and he will get it if he keeps playing well... 5x3 would be a bargain. At minimum, we are looking at an extension of 2.5 AAV.

4. We have to re-sign Motte the way he is playing... he will command at the very least 1.5.

5. Pencilling in Kastelic and Kelly as the Depth guys as they are on 1-year contracts.

6. Need an experienced 4C, those rarely go under 1.5

7. Boucher is not ready so We are looking at 1M at the very least for a RW.

8. We give JBD a one year, one way, prove your worth contract.

9. Sign an extra defenseman at League minimum

10. We only have 2.4M for another goalie as Soogard isn't ready to be a regular NHLer yet especially not on an aspiring contender.... 2.4 M That's okay but defintely won't be star goaltender... It might ber worthwhile to spend a little more here and cut elsewhere.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
19 000 000 $
53 000 000 $
23 000 000 $
1775 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
55 000 000 $
21 500 000 $
CRÉÉANSCAP HIT
RW, Place Holder
11 000 000 $
Center, Place Holder
11 500 000 $
Defense, Place Holder
1775 000 $
Goalie, Place Holder
12 412 620 $
Transactions
1.
OTT
CHI
  1. Zaitsev, Nikita
  2. Choix de 2e ronde en 2024 (WSH)
Détails additionnels:
Team or how you get rid of his contract isn't the point here
2.
ARI
  1. Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (OTT)
Rachats de contrats
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2023
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de NSH
2024
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de TBL
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
2025
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
Logo de OTT
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2387 000 000 $87 000 000 $0 $1 850 000 $0 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 4
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
8 350 000 $8 350 000 $
C
UFA - 8
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
AD, C
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
8 205 714 $8 205 714 $
AG
UFA - 5
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
7 950 000 $7 950 000 $
C
UFA - 7
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
4 975 000 $4 975 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 4
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
863 333 $863 333 $
C, AG
RFA - 2
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
2 950 000 $2 950 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 3
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
C
RFA - 1
Center, Place Holder
1 500 000 $1 500 000 $
RW, Place Holder
1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
8 000 000 $8 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 5
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
DD
UFA - 4
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
G
UFA - 2
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance1 850 000 $$2M)
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de Coyotes de l'Arizona
950 000 $950 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
775 000 $775 000 $
DD
RFA - 2
Goalie, Place Holder
2 412 620 $2 412 620 $
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
DG/DD, AG
RFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
835 000 $835 000 $
C, AD
RFA - 2
Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
762 500 $762 500 $
AG
RFA - 1
Defense, Place Holder
775 000 $775 000 $

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2 nov. 2022 à 11 h 7
#1
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Kastelic has a 2 year extension though, so he should be our 4th line next year as well
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2 nov. 2022 à 11 h 13
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Crookshank takes Motte's spot, Resign Sokolov for cheap and stick his bambi skating on the 4th line right wing, and I'm sure a 4c will come in cheaper than that. I know Milstein is a force in negotiations but I hope Zub sticks around 4.5.
2 nov. 2022 à 11 h 17
#3
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Quoting: zizougaffar
Kastelic has a 2 year extension though, so he should be our 4th line next year as well


Correct! 100% chance he makes the team.

As good as he is playing, if he keeps it up, he may very well start as 4th line center. In any case, I think it would be a good move to grab a playoff experienced center... Best case, we could re-sign brassard or a brassard-like player at league minimum and save 725 000$ on my budget. Still not enough to move the needle elsewhere in the lineup.
2 nov. 2022 à 11 h 20
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Quoting: YoungPattyKane
Crookshank takes Motte's spot, Resign Sokolov for cheap and stick his bambi skating on the 4th line right wing, and I'm sure a 4c will come in cheaper than that. I know Milstein is a force in negotiations but I hope Zub sticks around 4.5.


Meh, Crooksank will get some looks. But he is not sticking full time, nor starting the season since he is on a two-way. Stanley cup winning teams have experience in their bottom 6.

I am not a beleiver in Sokolov. Not a good enough skater for top 6.. and has an unadequate game for bottom 6. Doesn't nearly engage physically enough despite his big size and is pretty clueless defensively.
2 nov. 2022 à 11 h 25
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Quoting: zizougaffar
Kastelic has a 2 year extension though, so he should be our 4th line next year as well


Not sure why you added so many new players in here. Kastelic is great 4C with Kelley they should be in on the 4th for years.

JDB or Branstrom will end up as the pairing with Sanderson. I believe the idea long term is JDB, lets's not forget they played a whole season together in university.

Branstrom has been playing above a 3rd pairing, but getting extra minutes playing with Chabot cause he plays half the game.

The real question is what can DeBrincat get signed for? that changes a lot of other things for Pinto, Jospeh, and Sanderson.

I think you are writing off Talbot a little premature, we will see how he does when he gets back.
Also let us remember this is Soogards first year in the Ahl and he is only 21, he will likely push to be the starter in 2-3 years. 25 is considered the age goalies reach their potential.



Motte is fine in 3rd line spot, but Pinto will need to be paid, eventually, Grieg can slide in there of the Formenton issue gets resolved and he can come back.
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2 nov. 2022 à 11 h 29
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Quoting: Mattkenn
Meh, Crooksank will get some looks. But he is not sticking full time, nor starting the season since he is on a two-way. Stanley cup winning teams have experience in their bottom 6.

I am not a beleiver in Sokolov. Not a good enough skater for top 6.. and has an unadequate game for bottom 6. Doesn't nearly engage physically enough despite his big size and is pretty clueless defensively.


Crookshank has looked good, I think with these guys the org will wait on them, the timeline for Grieg, Boucher, or Crookshank is to replace Giroux in the top 6 so there is time there unless Debrinkcat doesn't resign, there isn't another top 6 spot one of them is likely to take over until bathreson contracts is up.
2 nov. 2022 à 11 h 37
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Quoting: NDoody
Not sure why you added so many new players in here. Kastelic is great 4C with Kelley they should be in on the 4th for years.

JDB or Branstrom will end up as the pairing with Sanderson. I believe the idea long term is JDB, lets's not forget they played a whole season together in university.

Branstrom has been playing above a 3rd pairing, but getting extra minutes playing with Chabot cause he plays half the game.

The real question is what can DeBrincat get signed for? that changes a lot of other things for Pinto, Jospeh, and Sanderson.

I think you are writing off Talbot a little premature, we will see how he does when he gets back.
Also let us remember this is Soogards first year in the Ahl and he is only 21, he will likely push to be the starter in 2-3 years. 25 is considered the age goalies reach their potential.



Motte is fine in 3rd line spot, but Pinto will need to be paid, eventually, Grieg can slide in there of the Formenton issue gets resolved and he can come back.



I 100% agree with all you said.

I haven't added that many players...

I have Kastelic and kelly making the team 100%. I just think it would be good to add some veterans in the lineup as it is what most stanley cup contender seem to have.

Maybe we can come in under the 3.275M combined for the 3 remaining skating spots I have as ''PlaceHolders'' ... but if we want players still somewhat in their primes, that's about it will cost to add some depth veterans... and we won't be saving that much by going cheaper/younger. 1M maximum.

I have not written off Talbot at all... but I am not even sure he would sign for as low as 2.4M... maybe that extra Mil we just saved by going cheaper on the depth forwards can go to getting talbot back,, or signing Jonathan quick... or trading for Hellebuyck retained... anyways as you said, Soogard is not ready next year (maybe 2-3 years)... we will need another goalier if we want to get these players some experience in playoff games.
2 nov. 2022 à 11 h 39
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Quoting: NDoody
Not sure why you added so many new players in here. Kastelic is great 4C with Kelley they should be in on the 4th for years.

JDB or Branstrom will end up as the pairing with Sanderson. I believe the idea long term is JDB, lets's not forget they played a whole season together in university.

Branstrom has been playing above a 3rd pairing, but getting extra minutes playing with Chabot cause he plays half the game.

The real question is what can DeBrincat get signed for? that changes a lot of other things for Pinto, Jospeh, and Sanderson.

I think you are writing off Talbot a little premature, we will see how he does when he gets back.
Also let us remember this is Soogards first year in the Ahl and he is only 21, he will likely push to be the starter in 2-3 years. 25 is considered the age goalies reach their potential.



Motte is fine in 3rd line spot, but Pinto will need to be paid, eventually, Grieg can slide in there of the Formenton issue gets resolved and he can come back.


And true... Debrincat is a hard one to figure it... But i think, for now, we just have to assume we will get his 9M qualyfing offer for next year
2 nov. 2022 à 11 h 42
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Quoting: Mattkenn
And true... Debrincat is a hard one to figure it... But i think, for now, we just have to assume we will get his 9M qualyfing offer for next year


I'm expecting double digits mill per. Look at comparables for 25 year old players with 2 40-goal seasons the list gets really short. Plus he and his agent know the market and the cap rise in the next few years.
2 nov. 2022 à 11 h 46
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Quoting: NDoody
I'm expecting double digits mill per. Look at comparables for 25 year old players with 2 40-goal seasons the list gets really short. Plus he and his agent know the market and the cap rise in the next few years.


This just proves my point further... 9M is probably the cheapest we can get him. If we extend him for more we have even more of a crunch.

There is no way we can afford a Top 4 d-men like Chycrun. Taking a swing on Mayo is the way to go.
2 nov. 2022 à 12 h 2
#11
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2. I don't see any reality where Zub is worth more than 4.5 AAV. He's 27 and has 39 pts in the NHL (0.29 PPG = 24 pts per 82 games). Agents can get some money for defensive abilities but offensive production is needed to get more. So unless Zub hits 40+ pts this season, I don't see this changing.

3. You don't sign him long-term, unless you plan to trade Chabot or Sanderson. Or unless they decide that he is a RD long-term? That would surprise me a lot. Sign an extension which expires as a RFA so he could be traded down the road. There's Tyler Kleven that they are grooming for a 3rd pairing LD role

4. IMO he will get over 2.0 (see Evan Rodrigues). We just can't afford him. Angus Crookshank AND Ridly Greig will be on the team next season (if health allows). Maybe even Formenton?

5. Kastelic is extended, Kelly is a on 1-way next season, unfortunately

6. Kastelic is the 4th line center going forward.

7. Don't need to sign any forward, maybe a Brassard type, a versatile veteran

9. Yes we will need a RHD, but in your scenario we acquire Mayo (I understand his contract but does he really return a 1st?). We'll proably need a Holden type, maybe that'll be him as he is cheap, experienced, well liked and can play BOTH sides.

10. Agreed that Sogaard needs to continue developing. Hellberg could be a hell of a re-signing... If not, Talbot or another veteran will come here for cheap.

Extra note : don't need to dump Zaitsev as he will be bought out if the salary cap rises like that. Very cheap buyout in terms of $$$


Now :

- ABD is proving that he is not worth more than the 8 M$ club (Tkachuk, Norris, Chabot, Stutzle). If he's too greedy, just trade him. 8.5 AAV MAX for me

- Brannstrom on a shorter deal and cheaper AAV (maybe 1.5 AAV?)

- ok I can live with overpaying Zub a little

- Sorry Motte but no spot for you (save 1.5 AAV). Angus Crookshank takes his spot for half the price

- Center, Place Holder : Mark Kastelic (already on a 1-way)

- RW, Place Holder : Parker Kelly or any other million forwards waiting for their opportunity

- Goalie, Place Holder : Hellberg? (at around 1.0, save another 1.5 AAV here)


0.5 + 1.5 + 1.5 + 1.5 + 1.0 + 1.5 = 7.5 saved

Minus Crookshank salary, minus Zaitsev buy out and that's it. Invest in a better RD or go with Mayo
2 nov. 2022 à 12 h 49
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Quoting: Xspyrit
2. I don't see any reality where Zub is worth more than 4.5 AAV. He's 27 and has 39 pts in the NHL (0.29 PPG = 24 pts per 82 games). Agents can get some money for defensive abilities but offensive production is needed to get more. So unless Zub hits 40+ pts this season, I don't see this changing.

3. You don't sign him long-term, unless you plan to trade Chabot or Sanderson. Or unless they decide that he is a RD long-term? That would surprise me a lot. Sign an extension which expires as a RFA so he could be traded down the road. There's Tyler Kleven that they are grooming for a 3rd pairing LD role

4. IMO he will get over 2.0 (see Evan Rodrigues). We just can't afford him. Angus Crookshank AND Ridly Greig will be on the team next season (if health allows). Maybe even Formenton?

5. Kastelic is extended, Kelly is a on 1-way next season, unfortunately

6. Kastelic is the 4th line center going forward.

7. Don't need to sign any forward, maybe a Brassard type, a versatile veteran

9. Yes we will need a RHD, but in your scenario we acquire Mayo (I understand his contract but does he really return a 1st?). We'll proably need a Holden type, maybe that'll be him as he is cheap, experienced, well liked and can play BOTH sides.

10. Agreed that Sogaard needs to continue developing. Hellberg could be a hell of a re-signing... If not, Talbot or another veteran will come here for cheap.

Extra note : don't need to dump Zaitsev as he will be bought out if the salary cap rises like that. Very cheap buyout in terms of $$$


Now :

- ABD is proving that he is not worth more than the 8 M$ club (Tkachuk, Norris, Chabot, Stutzle). If he's too greedy, just trade him. 8.5 AAV MAX for me

- Brannstrom on a shorter deal and cheaper AAV (maybe 1.5 AAV?)

- ok I can live with overpaying Zub a little

- Sorry Motte but no spot for you (save 1.5 AAV). Angus Crookshank takes his spot for half the price

- Center, Place Holder : Mark Kastelic (already on a 1-way)

- RW, Place Holder : Parker Kelly or any other million forwards waiting for their opportunity

- Goalie, Place Holder : Hellberg? (at around 1.0, save another 1.5 AAV here)


0.5 + 1.5 + 1.5 + 1.5 + 1.0 + 1.5 = 7.5 saved

Minus Crookshank salary, minus Zaitsev buy out and that's it. Invest in a better RD or go with Mayo


Clearly you are not trying to build a contender with your scenario, but let's say for the sake of player dev, sens decide to stay the course another year... that is still a tight cap crunch. As soon as sens try to improve the team with vets or extend Pinto to longer than 3 years (which they will try to do if the plan is to stay the course), we run into cap issues.

In your example, you don't save as much money as you say:

Crookshank vs Motte Budget = 662 000$ savings

3 Minimum salary PH vs what I have budgeted for the PH = 1 000 000$ savings

Brannstrom is arbitration elligable so he can wait until he has a contract he likes but let's say Ottawa Hardballs him, 1.5 is absolutely the least he will get in arb. 1 500 000 savings.

Hellberg vs my Goalie PH = 1 400 000$ savings

= just about 4.5M total of savings + 950 000$ of Mayo

= 5.45 AAV budget for a top 4D if we get rid of Zaitsev salary

Buying him out will cost 2.8M of cap space (because of his 2M bonus that cannot be bought out)

Budget for D now down to 2.65.

This team has way below average depth, basically no veterans and a below average goaltending duo. Not a winning formula.

My conclusion:

- Buying out zaitsev is not an option

- Even if we manage to ship him out, we must chose 1 between quality depth, proven goaltender or a top 4 d-man.

- Trading for Mayo allows us to have 2 of the above... and maybe all three if Mayo develops well... at the cost of a 1st round pick.
3 nov. 2022 à 17 h 55
#13
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Quoting: Mattkenn
Clearly you are not trying to build a contender with your scenario, but let's say for the sake of player dev, sens decide to stay the course another year... that is still a tight cap crunch. As soon as sens try to improve the team with vets or extend Pinto to longer than 3 years (which they will try to do if the plan is to stay the course), we run into cap issues..


It's kinda weird that you say that... I mean, I have built almost the same team as you as I was using your ACGM. Only differences were basically I removed Motte, added Crookshank and put Kastelic as a regular (not an extra)

To make it more clear, I created another ACGM

I even re-signed Motte to same amount as you. I gave 2 M$ to Brannstrom, 5 M$ to Zub, etc

I didn't change MUCH from your ACGM :

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3742780


Quoting: Mattkenn
My conclusion:

- Buying out zaitsev is not an option.


The following year, the AAV from his buyout is very cheap and the buyout cost is also very cheap both years.

It's a no brainer for a $ conscious team like Ottawa. Just has to manage this carefully for ONE season
 
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