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2022-23 NHL Season Discussion Thread #4: Just Keefe Drowning

2 nov. 2022 à 22 h 58
#201
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does a player on ltir take up a contract spot?

yeah right?
2 nov. 2022 à 23 h 0
#202
Respect Mike Grier
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Quoting: capsfan2121
does a player on ltir take up a contract spot?

yeah right?


On the official 23 no. On the 50 contracts i believes so
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2 nov. 2022 à 23 h 30
#203
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Quoting: Saskleaf
I’ll never understand the “ohhh we never should have signed Tavares” argument. The guy has consistently been just under a point per game throughout his Toronto career.


In general no pandemic nobody gives a **** about that 11mill as cap would be pushing 100mill for 2023

Hes a good 2c and as said above no flat cap no worrying about 11mill
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2 nov. 2022 à 23 h 48
#204
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Quoting: Rangsey
So are Buffalo finally taking a step or are we doing that thing we do every year where we think they'll be good and then they're a hot mess from December onwards?


Quoting: Db1899
I think they’ll be competitive and miss the playoffs by 2-5 points


I'm with DB here but .... The sabres have been on 100+ point pace since the last 2 months of last year...about 35 games straight now. Maybe it is finally them taking the step. Thompson turned into a top 20 maybe better center, Tuch amazing, the young kids stepped up, as have Quality goaltending and Dahlin is having himself an amazing season so far and only needs 3 goals in 2 games to keep pace with Karlsson.🤣 More points though.
3 nov. 2022 à 0 h 0
#205
I make typos
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Quoting: capsfan2121
they need a goalie and then they will be fine


https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/276555/devon-levi
3 nov. 2022 à 1 h 42
#206
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Quoting: aadoyle
In general no pandemic nobody gives a **** about that 11mill as cap would be pushing 100mill for 2023

Hes a good 2c and as said above no flat cap no worrying about 11mill


I still feel like taking up over 10% of your team's cap space is not a great deal (Even if the cap is 100 mil which it won't be for a few years)
3 nov. 2022 à 1 h 52
#207
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Quoting: Juiceman
I still feel like taking up over 10% of your team's cap space is not a great deal (Even if the cap is 100 mil which it won't be for a few years)


As long as he keeps up the production hes fine

As when u need a faceoff win, clutch goal, or a sweet behind the net feed hes your guy

Like after tonight Sanheim probs never wants to see him again
3 nov. 2022 à 1 h 53
#208
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Quoting: aadoyle
As long as he keeps up the production hes fine

As when u need a faceoff win, clutch goal, or a sweet behind the net feed hes your guy


Those kind of guys can be had for 8 mil though. Good player, not great contract
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3 nov. 2022 à 1 h 54
#209
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Quoting: Juiceman
Those kind of guys can be had for 8 mil though. Good player, not great contract


Thats cause were in a flat cap world. If the cap continued to rise we would see more double digit contracts in the NHL to where JT would just be another one in the pond

Like lets say cap was 100mill Kadri, Miller, etc all probs 10+mill range for their extensions

With the cap slated to go up by 4mill this year and potentially 8mill next year new deals will start getting more expensive and things will get back on track. Like by 2025 or 2026 the number of double digit deals probs gonna increase to where by the time JT retires or signs his cheap extension 9.5-11mill 2c's probs will be the norm
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3 nov. 2022 à 2 h 3
#210
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Quoting: aadoyle
As long as he keeps up the production hes fine

As when u need a faceoff win, clutch goal, or a sweet behind the net feed hes your guy

Like after tonight Sanheim probs never wants to see him again


U basically described Draisaitl ( at 8.5M aav) grin
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3 nov. 2022 à 4 h 23
#211
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Quoting: Db1899
Ty smith still has one of the highest star probabilities among players from the 2018 draft. Smith is still a future #2 or #3 D so the trade was hardly a fleece.


What're you basing that on besides the fact that he was a 1st rounder? Is Olli Juolevi gonna be a #2 D also? I can't tell if you're being serious, but there's not a single Devils fan upset with that trade. Nor is there a single Pens fan happy with it. We watched him play for 2 seasons and he didn't improve defensively at all. He actually regressed substantially on both sides of the puck in his second season. Where he was drafted means nothing at this point. The AHL is filled with high draft picks that couldn't defend at the NHL level. He's another Ryan Merkley.
3 nov. 2022 à 4 h 38
#212
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https://twitter.com/TheHockeyNews/status/1587989447076974597?s=20&t=Ds5ANF7PhBaYEvGZjJIWUA

Not loving this kinda behaviour, talk the talk, walk the walk. Konecky is a head shorter.
3 nov. 2022 à 5 h 31
#213
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Quoting: Brian2016
What're you basing that on besides the fact that he was a 1st rounder? Is Olli Juolevi gonna be a #2 D also? I can't tell if you're being serious, but there's not a single Devils fan upset with that trade. Nor is there a single Pens fan happy with it. We watched him play for 2 seasons and he didn't improve defensively at all. He actually regressed substantially on both sides of the puck in his second season. Where he was drafted means nothing at this point. The AHL is filled with high draft picks that couldn't defend at the NHL level. He's another Ryan Merkley.





Think Db was referring to Bader's model, which is very high on Ty Smith.
Personally I don't see it, he should become one of those 9% with this stat profile not to develop into a star player.
Granted it's only been 10 games played since the trade took place but I do think the Devils made out like bandits here, Marino has been stupid good so far.
3 nov. 2022 à 8 h 18
#214
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for like the next three years i mean. dont think he will be ready but i could be wrong
3 nov. 2022 à 9 h 7
#215
Go leafs go
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Quoting: Juiceman
I feel like 11 mil is a bit rich for "just under a point per game"


Maybe a tad, but that’s also kind of the point of signing UFAs. You over pay them so you can get them, since the money is the only thing you have to give up for them.
3 nov. 2022 à 9 h 9
#216
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Plus my Eye Test from yesterday's game : Yes Risto is utter ****
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3 nov. 2022 à 9 h 28
#217
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Karlsson has 31% of the Sharks goals, with 52% of their offence contribution and has averaged 23 minutes a night.

Additionally when I last checked his 5on5 on ice corsi for the Sharks was at 60%.

I shutter to think what the Sharks offence would look like with a cold Meier and Hertl and no Karlsson on the team.
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3 nov. 2022 à 9 h 38
#218
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Can I interest any of you in John Carlson. dude is elite at forcing the puck to ovi
3 nov. 2022 à 10 h 49
#219
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Quoting: Brian2016
What're you basing that on besides the fact that he was a 1st rounder? Is Olli Juolevi gonna be a #2 D also? I can't tell if you're being serious, but there's not a single Devils fan upset with that trade. Nor is there a single Pens fan happy with it. We watched him play for 2 seasons and he didn't improve defensively at all. He actually regressed substantially on both sides of the puck in his second season. Where he was drafted means nothing at this point. The AHL is filled with high draft picks that couldn't defend at the NHL level. He's another Ryan Merkley.


Byron Baders model which has been more accurate than most draft models has him at over an 90% star probability (based on point production) . It's irrelevant what Devils fans think of trading Ty smith, you guys see things through a subjective lens.

In Ty smiths age 20 season (rookie season), he put up 23 points in 48 games (.47 PPG pace) which is right at the cutoff for star production for a defenseman. He was also a solid driver of possession and despite not being great defensively, he did show the ability to suppress shots against. His problem was preventing quality shots against, but the right coaching he has the ability to be good defensively.

Ty smith's sophomore season was a typical development curve for a lot of high upside defenseman. He was awful, but it's normal for a defenseman to go through a sophomore slump. He has the makeup of a 50 pt offensive defenseman who doesn't hurt you defensively. Ryan Merkley is not a comparable, he hasn't been able to produce points in pro hockey like Smith has. Juolevi's career was ruined by injuries which has affected his skating and change of direction.

A good comparable for Ty smith is Sean Durzi.
3 nov. 2022 à 10 h 52
#220
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Quoting: Tintin



Think Db was referring to Bader's model, which is very high on Ty Smith.
Personally I don't see it, he should become one of those 9% with this stat profile not to develop into a star player.
Granted it's only been 10 games played since the trade took place but I do think the Devils made out like bandits here, Marino has been stupid good so far.


I don't think he'll be a star in terms of overall impact, I don't see him as a #1. But 50 points as a #3 D is a likely outcome. Marino is a very good defenseman, elite defensively , mediocre offensively. Right now it looks good for the devils because they are winning and marino looks solid, but in a year or 2 I have no doubt smith will be equal if not better than marino.

Smiths underlyings in his rookie season were good, sophomore slumps are normal. Noah dobson was one of the worst defenseman in the league in his sophomore season.
3 nov. 2022 à 10 h 52
#221
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analytics isnt everything
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3 nov. 2022 à 10 h 55
#222
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Quoting: capsfan2121
analytics isnt everything


that's it. im putting you on my ignore list
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3 nov. 2022 à 11 h 11
#223
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Quoting: Tintin
that's it. im putting you on my ignore list


whats new
3 nov. 2022 à 11 h 12
#224
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Quoting: Db1899
I don't think he'll be a star in terms of overall impact, I don't see him as a #1. But 50 points as a #3 D is a likely outcome. Marino is a very good defenseman, elite defensively , mediocre offensively. Right now it looks good for the devils because they are winning and marino looks solid, but in a year or 2 I have no doubt smith will be equal if not better than marino.

Smiths underlyings in his rookie season were good, sophomore slumps are normal. Noah dobson was one of the worst defenseman in the league in his sophomore season.


I don't think this is true.
Smith's SPAR in 20-21 was wholly unremarkable.
He only really looked somewhat competent in 20-21 when being glued to Severson and given the most sheltered minutes in the league.



Like I said, jury's still out as it's just been 10 games since the trade.
Ty is a very gifted hockey player no doubt but he has such a limited overall skill-set that I just cannot see a scenario where he'll ever provide close to the same value as Marino ever will.
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3 nov. 2022 à 11 h 22
#225
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Quoting: Tintin
I don't think this is true.
Smith's SPAR in 20-21 was wholly unremarkable.
He only really looked somewhat competent in 20-21 when being glued to Severson and given the most sheltered minutes in the league.



Like I said, jury's still out as it's just been 10 games since the trade.
Ty is a very gifted hockey player no doubt but he has such a limited overall skill-set that I just cannot see a scenario where he'll ever provide close to the same value as Marino ever will.


Smith was also good with Subban in over 100 min TOI. I think you're forgetting he was 20 YO, if you have even an average impact it's a good thing and its bodes well for future success.

There's no doubt Ty smith was terrible last season which is why his isolated impact looks awful.

Just looking at his age 20 rookie season, he did some good things.

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