Forums/Armchair-GM

Way too early projection of next years Sens

Créé par: JackSC87
Date de création initiale: 25 oct. 2022
Publié: 25 oct. 2022
Équipe: 2023-24 Sénateurs d'Ottawa
Description
I see Ottawa landing somewhere in the range of 14-20 in the standings.

A problem that this team will face in the long term is how front heavy they are. With the recent Stutzle extension, and the possibility of a similarly large Debrincat renewal, they are going to lack the cap space to acquire any Top 4 Defensemen or a good enough goalie tandem. As I've projected below, this struggle may start as soon as next year with a couple underperforming young defensemen, and a very questionable goalie tandem.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
LISTE DE RÉSERVEANSCAP HIT
Tychonick, Jonathan1825 000 $
RFAANSCAP HIT
Bernard-Docker, Jacob2800 000 $
Kastelic, Mark2950 000 $
Pinto, Shane34 500 000 $
DeBrincat, Alex89 000 000 $
Brännström, Erik21 600 000 $
Lodin, Viktor2775 000 $
Sokolov, Egor2775 000 $
Mandolese, Kevin2775 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
Zub, Artem32 700 000 $
Holden, Nick11 000 000 $
Watson, Austin11 100 000 $
Transactions
OTT
    Future Considerations
    ARI
    1. Zaitsev, Nikita
    2. Choix de 2024 ronde en 2e (OTT)
    Rachats de contrats
    • Bobby Ryan: 1 833 333 $
    • Colin White: 875 000 $
    • Michael Del Zotto: 750 000 $
    Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
    • Matt Murray: 1 562 500 $ (25%)
    ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGE1E RONDE2E RONDE3E RONDE4E RONDE5E RONDE6E RONDE7E RONDE
    2023
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de NSH
    2024
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de WSH
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de TBL
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    2025
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    Logo de OTT
    TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
    2383 500 000 $82 240 713 $0 $2 275 000 $1 259 287 $
    Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Tkachuk, Brady
    8 205 714 $
    AG
    UFA - 5
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Stützle, Tim
    8 350 000 $
    C
    UFA - 8
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Batherson, Drake
    4 975 000 $
    AD
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    DeBrincat, Alex
    9 000 000 $
    AG, AD
    RFA
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Norris, Joshua
    7 950 000 $
    C
    UFA - 7
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Giroux, Claude
    6 500 000 $
    AD, C
    NMC
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Greig, Ridly
    863 333 $
    C, AG
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Pinto, Shane
    4 500 000 $
    C
    RFA
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Joseph, Mathieu
    2 950 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 3
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Kelly, Parker
    762 500 $
    C, AG
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Kastelic, Mark
    950 000 $
    C
    RFA - 2
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Watson, Austin
    1 100 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA
    Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Chabot, Thomas
    8 000 000 $
    DG
    UFA - 5
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Zub, Artem
    2 700 000 $
    DD
    UFA - 4
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Forsberg, Anton
    2 750 000 $
    G
    UFA - 2
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Sanderson, Jake
    925 000 $
    DG
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Bernard-Docker, Jacob
    800 000 $
    DD
    RFA
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Søgaard, Mads
    925 000 $
    G
    RFA - 1
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Brännström, Erik
    1 600 000 $
    DG/DD
    RFA
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Thomson, Lassi
    863 333 $
    DD
    RFA - 1
    Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Holden, Nick
    1 000 000 $
    DG
    UFA
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Lodin, Viktor
    775 000 $
    C, AG
    RFA
    Logo de Sénateurs d'Ottawa
    Sokolov, Egor
    775 000 $
    AG
    RFA

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    25 oct. 2022 à 12 h 12
    #1
    frosty cold
    Avatar de l'utilisateur
    Rejoint: juin 2021
    Messages: 71
    Mentions "j'aime": 20
    Zub is getting north of $4m and probably 4 years +. Tychonick will be cast off.
    The rest of your choices seem are good.
    Things that remain a question:
    -Do they sign Motte and extend Austin Watson? Or does Sokolov, Crookshank and Lodin take their place?
    -Is Mads Sogaard ready? (i sure hope so. I like what I have seen)
    25 oct. 2022 à 13 h 41
    #2
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    Rejoint: juill. 2016
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    Looking at this team for the first 6 games... 14-20 in the standings is WISHFUL THINKING, but not in the way a Leafs fan would hope.

    A lot of dead money (from buyouts and Murray retention, thanks Toronto) will come off the books in the near future. Then Giroux's 6.5 AAV

    Most of the core is already signed, next season will be tight but after that, Sens are in a really great position in terms of salary cap.


    Tychonick is a bust
    Sogaard will continue to develop in the AHL. They will sign a backup like Hellberg (probably)
    Zaitsev will be bought out
    Zub will get more around 4.5 AAV
    Watson and Holden probably won't be back
    25 oct. 2022 à 13 h 52
    #3
    Démarrer sujet
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    Rejoint: janv. 2017
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    Quoting: prostyle
    Zub is getting north of $4m and probably 4 years +. Tychonick will be cast off.
    The rest of your choices seem are good.
    Things that remain a question:
    -Do they sign Motte and extend Austin Watson? Or does Sokolov, Crookshank and Lodin take their place?
    -Is Mads Sogaard ready? (i sure hope so. I like what I have seen)


    Motte has looked very good for the Sens so far, but for that reason I think he probably comes in at a price that Ottawa will not like. And Grieg taking his spot is probably better for overall team development, as I doubt many people disagree with the fact that Grieg has a higher ceiling than Motte. I could totally see a scenario where Watson is not brought back, and one of those guys you mentioned takes his 4th line RW spot. I suppose it's more of a question if you believe that they have higher potential than just the 4th line.
    25 oct. 2022 à 13 h 56
    #4
    Démarrer sujet
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    Quoting: Xspyrit
    Looking at this team for the first 6 games... 14-20 in the standings is WISHFUL THINKING, but not in the way a Leafs fan would hope.

    A lot of dead money (from buyouts and Murray retention, thanks Toronto) will come off the books in the near future. Then Giroux's 6.5 AAV

    Most of the core is already signed, next season will be tight but after that, Sens are in a really great position in terms of salary cap.


    Tychonick is a bust
    Sogaard will continue to develop in the AHL. They will sign a backup like Hellberg (probably)
    Zaitsev will be bought out
    Zub will get more around 4.5 AAV
    Watson and Holden probably won't be back


    First of all, I'd like to note that Zub getting 4.5 and Zaitsev being bought out only works if Debrincat doesn't re-sign, or if Pinto gets much less then what I signed him for. It's probably best to just outright dump off Zaitsev instead of accruing more dead cap, since like you said they have a lot of it on the books right now. And yes, they will gain space from the Murray retention, and Ryan + Del Zotto expiring, but only by about 3 million. So they will nonetheless have issues having a solidified d core along with two solid goalies.
    25 oct. 2022 à 15 h 6
    #5
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    Quoting: JackSC87
    First of all, I'd like to note that Zub getting 4.5 and Zaitsev being bought out only works if Debrincat doesn't re-sign, or if Pinto gets much less then what I signed him for.


    Why? As of now, cap is supposed to be $86,500,000. You probably just didn't see Bettman's comments

    Pinto might get less than 4.5 AAV on a 2 years bridge (why would it be 3 years?), even if he has good stats (see Kyrou and Thomas bridges, for example)

    Quoting: JackSC87
    It's probably best to just outright dump off Zaitsev instead of accruing more dead cap, since like you said they have a lot of it on the books right now. And yes, they will gain space from the Murray retention, and Ryan + Del Zotto expiring, but only by about 3 million. So they will nonetheless have issues having a solidified d core along with two solid goalies.


    Zaitsev buyout is very interesting because it doesn't cost much in terms of $$$ and everyone knows Ottawa is a money conscious franchise

    $833,334 in cost each year
    $2,833,334 in cap hit the first year then $833,334

    If they can make it work cap wise for the first year, then this move is a no brainer

    Regarding the D-core, I don't see the problem...

    Chabot has several more years at 8.0
    Sanderson has 2 years of ELC left then will probably need a bridge
    They will probably extend Zub for 5 years around 4.5 AAV
    Brannstrom has 4 years of being "cost controlled", won't be a problem unless he explodes and starts piling up more points

    Then you have plenty of solid prospects like JBD, Kleven, Thomson, Hamara and Nordberg (plus a few more to keep track of)

    You will see the talk regarding Ottawa's defense later this year, once Sanderson and Brannstrom are a bit more known. It's getting really solid as well.
    25 oct. 2022 à 18 h 0
    #6
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    if cat does not step up; in the goal scoring area, no chance in hell OTT will pay him 9M+
     
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