He's a top 4 d man making 4.2M. He would be the 71st highest paid d man. That's already a fair value contract. He put up good results in the top pair. It can turn into a massive steal.

Marino & Klefbom were both good? No clue what you're point is. Marino didn't get traded because he was bad. He got traded because of Malkin/Letang cap crunch.

You literally used points to evaluate a defensive d man. Instead of admitting you know nothing about the player, you refuse to admit you were wrong.

It's called locking up your promising young players to good deals before the value skyrockets. What we should've done with Reinhart/McCabe instead of bridging them until they leave.

Okay, setting aside that 20 decent games or 54 decent games doesn't establish someone like you're suggesting, i went and checked his tandems from last season. By far, he spent the most time with Casey Fitzgerald (221 min) - that's bottom pairing, AND they got demolished. Next up, Bryson (170 min) - again, 3rd pairing, but they actually outdid their analytics pretty nicely. Then you have Dahlin (140 min, those two underperformed their analytic numbers a good bit), Pysyk (109 min, 3rd pairing, and they were caved in pretty bad even if they somehow managed to come out even in GF%). The rest are 40 min or a lot below, and he had only minimal linkups with Power. So basically, he was mostly 3rd pairing, and maybe had like 10-ish games of top pairing play, and all told was at 40% on scoring chance percentage and 41.5% on GF/GA percentage.

In other words, he's certainly not so established as you remember.

"By far, he spent the most time with Casey Fitzgerald (221 min) - that's bottom pairing Next up, Bryson (170 min) - again, 3rd pairing," You're wrong. He wasn't 3rd pairing with Bryson. He was top 4 most of the time. Our team had a lot of injuries defensively. Joki wasn't good with Dahlin and he got much better when he played with Samuelsson. Fitz also played with Samuelsson in the top 4. The only time he really played bottom pair was a bit at the beginning. Hagg was our bottom pair LD for most of the first half.

These were the lineups: https://twitter.com/BuffaloVogl/status/1509904660567633947 Dahlin - Joki / Samuelsson - Fitzgerald / Bryson - Pysyk

https://twitter.com/buffalovogl/status/1501592897229107209?s=21 Dahlin - Joki / Samuelsson - Bryson / Hagg - Fitzgerald


In other words, you gotta look a bit more into it than just looking at natural stat trick

It's the John Chayka strategy. Overpay now b/c it'll be a steal in a few years. If you really think this kid will be worth $7M AAV in a couple years then go for it.

Hahaha what? You made claims, I debunked them. Line-ups don't stay the same for 60 minutes every game, and you've picked out exactly one. Isn't it slightly possible you've put the cart before the horse in rating his performance/established place in the line-up and league in general? You act like he's an established top 4 guy who's really almost halfway to being top pairing. That's a wild stretch, on multiple levels.

You didn't debunk anything. You just ran to natural stat trick and looked at minutes without looking at what the pairing was. You want more examples of you being wrong?

https://twitter.com/BuffaloVogl/status/1499891562469376004

https://twitter.com/BuffaloVogl/status/1500525620165550085

https://twitter.com/BuffaloVogl/status/1500978876717187073

https://twitter.com/BuffaloVogl/status/1502765915221418000

https://twitter.com/BuffaloVogl/status/1503752128879337487

https://twitter.com/BuffaloVogl/status/1504618184250339343

https://twitter.com/BuffaloVogl/status/1505614311892213763

https://twitter.com/BuffaloVogl/status/1504980044757708800

https://twitter.com/BuffaloVogl/status/1506769612154839042

I said he played top 4, which he did. It's so funny how many people continue to double down instead of admitting they were wrong.

Heh. Setting aside all the relevant points/evidence you ignore to maintain stances ("20 top pairings games!" ... at 7 minutes per?), since when does playing in the top 4 of last year's Sabres team for 25-30% of a season with spotty results make one a bona fide NHL top 4 defenseman? Does it make Casey flippin Fitzgerald are bona fide top 4 NHL defenseman, too? Playing some top 4 minutes for part of a season out of desperation ain't the cred you think it is. Meanwhile, on top of it all, his analytics relative to teammates was about -8%. This contract largesse is overtly premature on established merit, and I find it wild that anyone could see this as a dumb hot take. Most people see this as premature, it's an easy call. That doesn't mean he won't end up making this look like the steal of the century (unlikely), or just a solid piece of business (more likely). It just means he has not done anything to earn that contract yet. Obviously.

I like Samuelsson, but this contract is insane. If he truly pans out as a 2nd pairing dman with great defense..then they saved a little....but if he stays on the 3rd pairing- its a massive overpay, and inflates what anyone else will demand in similar situations. This is a gamble they didnt need to take, their cap situation shouldve been fine for a few more years- but this is going to throw a wrench in to their future negotiations.

I don't even know what your main stances are. You keep changing them. His ceiling went from being a top 4 d man (when he's already in that role). To he plays 3rd pair with Bryson / Fitz (he played second pair with those guys). Dahlin has had some of his best metrics paired with Samuelsson. This is after numerous partners like Jokiharju, Montour, Ristolainen, and Miller.

"Does it make Casey flippin Fitzgerald are bona fide top 4 NHL defenseman, too?" Casey's on ice impact isn't good. Samuelsson's is. That's the difference. One is good and one isn't.

Playing top 4 and putting up great defensive metrics is not easy to do on a bad team. The only one that was able to do that was McCabe. Who I would've loved to give a contract like this after his first year. We instead bridged him until he left in FA.

Most people here don't even know who the player is. It's quite obvious when people are evaluating him by point totals. There is a reason why Sabres fans love this deal.

For what he brings now as a top 4 big physical defensive guy that plays well with Dahlin it's a fair contract. If he ups his game it can become a steal.

"if he stays on the 3rd pairing" he's not even on the 3rd pairing lol.

Oh FCOL already. There's so many wanton false claims and so much evidence avoidance here I don't even know where to begin. Apparently getting utterly demolished by every possible metric while playing 2nd pairing with Fitzgerald on a terrible defense establishes one as a bona fide top 4 NHL defenseman... on like three teams. Congrats on your Hall of Fame signing.

If you want to be bad faith go ahead. You had a lot of claims that were just wrong. You just continue to double down.

Next time I'd recommend at least knowing about the player before you comment.

I know plenty about the player. I like the player. Hell, I advocated trading for him before he ever debuted in the NHL. I said more than once he could very well make good on the contract. None of that changes the fact that he is not yet a bona fide NHL top 4 defenseman just because he played less than half a season with spotty results in the top 4 of a bottom tier defense stable. OBVIOUSLY. When he can ably play, for gosh at least one full season, in the top 4 of, say, 25 teams or more, THEN we can say he's "a top 4 Dman".

Meanwhile, you imagine 140 minutes of 5v5 play with Sandin (20 games, huh?) means he's practically halfway to being a top pairing guy. Somehow. Against all reason and fact. But sure, the guy saying entirely reasonable, glaringly obvious things is arguing in bad faith...

Devon Toews
Roman Josi
Ryan Suter
Damon Severson
MacKenzie Weegar
Cam Fowler
Brandon Carlo
Brett Pesce
Brian Dumolin
Zach Whiteclould
John Carlson
Jake Muzzin
Jonas Siegenthaler
Adam Larsson
Connor Murphy
John Klingberg
Jonas Brodin

Just some of the guys who got less $$ on their longer (3+) bridge deals.

This is a bad contract. Buffalo already has their top 4 on the left side locked up in Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power. Why would you overpay and bet on another unproven guy to become a top 4 LHD?

Dahlin has been playing RD with Samuelsson, he's definitely not worth this money yet but Buffalo can afford to dish it out right now and he should continue to grow into a top 4, maybe even fringe top 2 role

It might work out fine though I wonder why they didn't at least wait until mid- or late season to make sure Samuelson continues to show progress this season; I have no doubt he has some talents, and has an NHL pedigree as the son of Kjell, but not a lot of track record. Lots of young players show flashes of potential when called up and allowed to play on big minutes on bad teams well out the playoffs, only to stagnate thereafter ... but this could also be a trend we see more of as teams are cash strapped and need to just hope they can lock up young potential top 4 D or top 6 forwards for long periods just before they breakout.

That's the thing. I never said "bonafide" you just keep repeating it. You just misrepresent arguments instead of addressing what I actually said. I said he played in the top 4 this season and on the top pair with Dahlin at the end. That is true. You said he was on the 3rd pair with Bryson & Fitz all of those minutes. That was completely false. You get caught being wrong & just move on to the next argument. That's acting in bad faith.

If you knew plenty about the player you'd know his ceiling is much higher than a 4th d man lmao. The role that he's already playing in.

He plays with Dahlin on the top pair. Dahlin plays on his offhand.

@Mokumboi

I'm sure almost every one of those teams wishes they signed those players to a 7 year deal after their first season.

Again, he played 140 minutes with Dahlin out of 715 5v5 minutes. So saying he plays top pair like it's an established thing is extremely misleading.

Do you understand the difference between being "a top 4 Dman" and getting to play a few hundred top 4 minutes (with varying degrees of success, some of those degrees being reeeally bad) on a team with one of the weakest D stables in the league last season? Two very different things, dude. I rode a camel in the Sahara a couple times - doesn't make me a Bedouin. And appropriately, no one should hail me as one because I ain't there yet.

That’s like a month worth of minutes.