As unlikely as I think a Robertson trade is, it's important that people start to understand that any trade for him would start with a top-end young talent alongside at least one 1st- likely more. In LA's case, that would mean start with Kaliyev or Clarke, the 2023 1st, and then a roster player or two- let's use Iafallo and Roy like your trade does. To top it off, it'd likely require another quality prospect or another high pick. That would leave the initial offer that maybe starts to get their attention as:

Kaliyev, Roy, Iafallo, Spence/Grans, and the 2023 1st

Timo Meier for Roberts straight up???
both have similar value and upside and our ask is virtually the same so why not!

I wouldn't if I were Dallas.

a.) Meier is older
b.) he's a pending RFA with arbitration rights alongside a QO over 10mil
a.) they'd have to negotiate to buy more UFA years which would drive up the contract demand
c.) the acquired player doesn't have established, great chemistry with Hintz and Pavelski

Interesting how you say Clarke and kaliyev are their top young prospects.

This trade has two guys that were top young prospects one year ago in Vilardi and Turcotte. Funny how times change.

neither of them were top prospects a year ago. definitely not vilardi.

Well, that's how these things tend to work. If a player with Vilardi's injury history takes a step back at age 22, it raises questions. Kaliyev could very well do the same this year, of course, but perceptions are heavily (and rightfully) influenced by recent performance. Meanwhile, I think it's fair to say that Turcotte has generally been a disappointment given what's expected of 5th overall F picks. Not a bust yet, of course, but certainly not how you want your 5th overall C to trend.

The point with targeting Clarke and Kaliyev is to fill specific needs in DAL's organization. Kaliyev helps replace what Robertson brings as a highly-talented shooter and offensive player while Clarke adds a high-ceiling, two-way RD that their team really could use going forward. With a prospect pool comprised of quality C prospects like Johnston, Bourque, Damiani, and Dellandrea, I don't think either Turcotte or Vilardi scratch an itch for them- at least not as the central pieces in a Robertson trade.

I don't think his claim is that far off. A 22 year old coming off 23 points in 54 games is likely to be viewed as a top prospect for the team. Turcotte was also one year younger coming off a solid- albeit, not ideal- rookie AHL season. However, to the point, Kaliyev was likely viewed above both alongside Byfield and the recently-drafted Clarke.

23 points in 54 games as a 22 year old is most definitely not a top prospect on any team. Kieffer Bellows is a year older and had a higher points per game than him. I dont think that anyone considers bellows to be in the realm of a top prospect anymore

anyways his claim was not very smart. DY+1 and DY+2 development years are crucial, and when a prospect shows very little then and continue to struggle through DY+4, they dont have very much value. Look at Lias Andersson, Nolan Patrick, Cody Glass. They have very little value.

Robertson is worth a lot more than $56M on a 7-year contract. I think he'll end up getting something very similar to Kaprisov in terms of AAV.

Except those 23 points in 54 games were scored when he was 21. He had just turned 22 coming into the season. I agree with your general premise, though.

it was still his DY+4 season. he is a fine prospect now, but his NHL struggles are concerning

older by a few year, your guy now is a RFA and you can’t sign him while Meier is signed a RFA next year when you have more cap space, and uhhh yes he has chemestry with pavelski the skates on the same line previously and he scored 30 goals, and Hintz isn’t a hard player to build chemestry with.

Yes, older by almost 3 years (July '99 Vs Oct '96). It makes a difference.
Yes, he's an RFA without arbitration rights and a 10mil QO (which practically guarantees him 10+mil/yr).
Yes, cap space that they'll also have if they can come to terms on a 1yr extension only to renegotiate next year which would still have them in a more advantageous position than with Meier.

And no, he doesn't have the kind of pre-established chemistry as a line that the trio of Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski has; we're talking about something like a top-10 or maybe even top-5 line in the league (haven't really done a thorough analysis). Maybe Meier could step in and have a similar impact to Robertson but the point is it's not a guarantee the way Robertson is and, hence, is a risk.

You can try to diminish each of these factors all you want, but it won't negate the fact that each IS a factor that makes a difference in the evaluation of a proposed trade. Also, he's not "my guy"; I'm an Oilers fan.

a QO does not guaranty him 10 mil a year, it guaranty’s 1 year at 10 or he can sign a long term contract. and 3 years is a lot if he’s 30 but the guy is 26 you sign him 7-8 years at 27 and his deal is up in his age 33 or 34 season which is ideal.
I only broach this idea as an option rather than him holding out this year or getting a qualifying offer from someone else.

again this is purely hypothetical but the truth is Roberts or Meier either or won’t change your top line production much and both have 6+ prime years.
as for chemistry, Meier and Pavelski played on a line together in san jose and had good chemistry so I doubt the chemistry thing would be an issue. you at least now have a top line signed instead of missing your LW for the year.
now if Dallas can find a way to sign Roberts then this is all pointless but if they can’t this might work out for both teams.

Were going to have to disagree. Vilardi was a just turned 22 year old c coming off a half a ppg season feeling like he was ready to break out. Then he shat the bed this season

Turcotte was 2 years post being drafted 5th overall and while he hadn't been developing incredibly he hadn't been badly either.

I wasn't suggesting either were blue chip, top of the league, but I did mean around top 1-2 prospects in most organizations. The person I was replying to called kaliyev such a prospect now. They were worth then as much or more than kaliyev now

Oh I wasn't disagreeing. I was just saying how it's funny to look at it