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Long-term outlook while keeping roster intact

Créé par: Richard88
Équipe: 2024-25 Avalanche du Colorado
Date de création initiale: 21 sept. 2022
Publié: 21 sept. 2022
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Bill Daly said the cap could rise a lot in 2024/25. To be conservative I've used a modest projection of a $2.5m rise from the $83.5m cap ceiling set for 2023/24, to $86m.

Since this is a 2024 AGM, for the accuracy in the roster "long-term outlook" I've put Byram, Newhook, and Meyers' contracts one year shorter than they would be at the time of signing in 2023.

2023:
Byram $4.5m X 3
Newhook $3m X 3
Meyers $2m X 2

2024:
Toews $7.5m X 8

The rest would just be cheap 1-2 year contracts.

----

Looking at the long-term outlook:

2025:
Rantanen (UFA)
Georgiev (UFA)
O'Connor (UFA)
Meyers (RFA)
Olausson (RFA)
Ranta (RFA)

Hopefully the cap would rise to cover those raises. If not, Manson (1 year to UFA) or Girard (2 years to UFA) could be moved for capspace.

2026:
Manson (UFA)
Byram (RFA)
Newhook (RFA)

Manson's $4.5m and any cap rise would go towards Newhook and Byram. At this point Behrens should hopefully be established, so trading Girard as a pending UFA could also be an option to create capspace if needed.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
LISTE DE RÉSERVEANSCAP HIT
3925 000 $
3925 000 $
RFAANSCAP HIT
2900 000 $
11 000 000 $
2900 000 $
24 500 000 $
12 000 000 $
23 000 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
1900 000 $
2987 500 $
87 500 000 $
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2023
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
2024
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
2025
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2186 000 000 $85 900 833 $0 $0 $99 167 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
7 000 000 $7 000 000 $
AG, C
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
12 600 000 $12 600 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
6 125 000 $6 125 000 $
AD, AG
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
AG, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
9 250 000 $9 250 000 $
AD, C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
C, AG
RFA - 3
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
AG
RFA
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
AG, C
UFA
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
863 333 $863 333 $
AD
RFA - 2
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
900 000 $900 000 $
C, AG
RFA
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
1 050 000 $1 050 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
900 000 $900 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
7 500 000 $7 500 000 $
DG
UFA - 7
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
DD
UFA - 3
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 1
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
900 000 $900 000 $
G
RFA - 2
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
925 000 $925 000 $
DG
RFA
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
987 500 $987 500 $
DG/DD, AG
UFA

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21 sept. 2022 à 10 h 44
#1
John 3 16
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@Xqb15a You might be right that it could be possible for the Avs to keep Toews long-term. wink

Bridging Byram and Newhook and Toews taking a reasonable deal would make it possible. Those might be slightly optimistic though.

Toews could probably get $9m x7 ($63m) on the open market. $7.5m X 8 ($60m) would be a slight discount but within the realm of what would be a reasonable discount for Toews to take to stay in Colorado.

They'd be kicking the can down the road to 2025 when Rantanen's deal is up, but hopefully the cap would have risen enough by then to cover his raise.
21 sept. 2022 à 10 h 50
#2
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You can also trade Manson starting this year to free up more space. I don't think it's a coincidence that his trade protection loosens significantly the year Toews gets paid.
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21 sept. 2022 à 10 h 56
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Anus_McLeod
You can also trade Manson starting this year to free up more space. I don't think it's a coincidence that his trade protection loosens significantly the year Toews gets paid.


Yeah, for sure. That said, assuming that his play hasn't fallen off a cliff by 2024 and capspace isn't a big issue it would be prudent to keep him to have a big and physical RHD to complement Behrens/Byram/Girard.

His contract would also overlap with Byram's bridge as well.
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21 sept. 2022 à 11 h 2
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Quoting: Richard88
Yeah, for sure. That said, assuming that his play hasn't fallen off a cliff by 2024 and capspace isn't a big issue it would be prudent to keep him to have a big and physical RHD to complement Behrens/Byram/Girard.

His contract would also overlap with Byram's bridge as well.


For sure. I'm just saying that the FO built an option in intentionally. Contrary to popular belief, I think their view is that they want to keep all of Makar, Toews, Byram, and Girard long term if possible. The timing of Manson's full NTC gives them a lever to pull if necessary.
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21 sept. 2022 à 12 h 28
#5
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Quoting: Anus_McLeod
For sure. I'm just saying that the FO built an option in intentionally. Contrary to popular belief, I think their view is that they want to keep all of Makar, Toews, Byram, and Girard long term if possible. The timing of Manson's full NTC gives them a lever to pull if necessary.


Yeah, I imagine the thinking here is that, so long as the top six perform and the D is still largely intact, the bottom six can be kept to defensively-responsible cheaper deals and they'd still be good. Most people do not realize how much the Avs have revolutionized what the D corps does but the personnel does matter.
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21 sept. 2022 à 14 h 45
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Quoting: Richard88
Xqb15a You might be right that it could be possible for the Avs to keep Toews long-term. wink

Bridging Byram and Newhook and Toews taking a reasonable deal would make it possible. Those might be slightly optimistic though.

Toews could probably get $9m x7 ($63m) on the open market. $7.5m X 8 ($60m) would be a slight discount but within the realm of what would be a reasonable discount for Toews to take to stay in Colorado.

They'd be kicking the can down the road to 2025 when Rantanen's deal is up, but hopefully the cap would have risen enough by then to cover his raise.


I mean you’re talking 2 years down the road, they could move Manson, they could move Lehkonen.
22 sept. 2022 à 5 h 11
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Xqb15a
I mean you’re talking 2 years down the road, they could move Manson, they could move Lehkonen.


I doubt they'd move Lehkonen as he'll still be in his prime years. Manson is already in a decline and in two years he will have declined even more to the point they may have to pay an asset to move him. RHD's do have value around the league though so it's possible someone picks him up without him being a capdump too though. We'll see.
22 sept. 2022 à 7 h 12
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Quoting: Richard88
I doubt they'd move Lehkonen as he'll still be in his prime years. Manson is already in a decline and in two years he will have declined even more to the point they may have to pay an asset to move him. RHD's do have value around the league though so it's possible someone picks him up without him being a capdump too though. We'll see.


Somebody doesn’t like Manson. I’ll be honest I wasn’t a fan of the move at the time, but he was really good in his role. Lehkonen is going to be so fascinating to me, COL is saying he is something that MTL said for his entire career he isn’t a top 6 guy and he is going to get top 6 minutes. The one guy or really the one contract that gives me serious pause is Nichushkin because he got a huge contract and now the news is he won’t be ready for the start of camp and if he isn’t a 50-60 pt elite defensive guy that contract is going to be rough.
22 sept. 2022 à 8 h 41
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Quoting: Xqb15a
Somebody doesn’t like Manson. I’ll be honest I wasn’t a fan of the move at the time, but he was really good in his role. Lehkonen is going to be so fascinating to me, COL is saying he is something that MTL said for his entire career he isn’t a top 6 guy and he is going to get top 6 minutes. The one guy or really the one contract that gives me serious pause is Nichushkin because he got a huge contract and now the news is he won’t be ready for the start of camp and if he isn’t a 50-60 pt elite defensive guy that contract is going to be rough.


When you look at the big picture: Manson is older (he'll be 31 when the season starts) so it's not out of line to predict a decline; Lehky never had guys the caliber of Mac, Mikko and Landy to play with and some teams just see players differently; not surprised Val is missing at least some of camp - that foot injury looked pretty brutal.
22 sept. 2022 à 9 h 8
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Xqb15a
Somebody doesn’t like Manson. I’ll be honest I wasn’t a fan of the move at the time, but he was really good in his role. Lehkonen is going to be so fascinating to me, COL is saying he is something that MTL said for his entire career he isn’t a top 6 guy and he is going to get top 6 minutes. The one guy or really the one contract that gives me serious pause is Nichushkin because he got a huge contract and now the news is he won’t be ready for the start of camp and if he isn’t a 50-60 pt elite defensive guy that contract is going to be rough.


I like Manson, don't get me wrong. It's just a fact that players of his profile tend to decline in their early 30's. I think he's a perfect fit for what the Avs need on the blueline and am happy they re-signed him. But there's a reason his NTC becomes modified in 2024 to give the GM an opportunity to move him then if he needs to.
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22 sept. 2022 à 11 h 35
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Quoting: Richard88
I like Manson, don't get me wrong. It's just a fact that players of his profile tend to decline in their early 30's. I think he's a perfect fit for what the Avs need on the blueline and am happy they re-signed him. But there's a reason his NTC becomes modified in 2024 to give the GM an opportunity to move him then if he needs to.


I don’t disagree I do think his game ages way better than someone that relies entirely on their skating. I also think his role in COL is better suited (less minutes) to where he is at than it was in ANA, because realistically based on TOI I fully expect him to be the 5th dman.
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