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Habs Eat The Jets

Créé par: jonh514
Équipe: 2023-24 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 16 sept. 2022
Publié: 16 sept. 2022
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Assumption: Jets decide to rebuild ahead of the draft in 2023
Assumption: Habs are picking 4th OA 2023
Assumption: Panthers pick is 24th OA 2023
Assumption: Primeau takes the Rocket to the Calder Cup finals
Assumption: Hellebuyck agrees to a 5 year extension with the Habs ahead of the trade
Assumption: Price never plays again
Assumption: Rebuilding Jets can use Armia in a more offensive role
Assumption: Hoffman is just a cap dump to make the money make sense

Remember: You know and I know none of this will happen. But's let's keep it clean and have some fun!
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
88 000 000 $
22 000 000 $
1900 000 $
1900 000 $
1900 000 $
Transactions
1.
WPG
  1. Farrell, Sean [Liste de réserve]
  2. Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (MTL)
Détails additionnels:
Habs pick is KNOWN to be #4 OA in 2023
2.
MTL
  1. Hellebuyck, Connor
Détails additionnels:
Assumption: Hellebuyck agrees to a 5 year extension with the Habs ahead of the trade
Assumption: Price never plays again
WPG
  1. Armia, Joel
  2. Hoffman, Mike
  3. Primeau, Cayden
  4. Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (FLA)
Détails additionnels:
Panthers pick is 24 OA
Assumption: Primeau takes the Rocket to the Calder Cup finals this season
Assumption: Rebuilding jets can use Armia in a more offensive role
Assumption: Hoffman is just a cap dump to make the money make sense
3.
WPG
  1. Kapanen, Oliver [Liste de réserve]
  2. Savard, David
  3. Struble, Jayden [Liste de réserve]
  4. Choix de 2e ronde en 2023 (MTL)
Détails additionnels:
Pick is #36 OA
Struble is an NHL-calibur stay at home defensemen, but due to organizational depth the Habs can't give him a contract
Kapanen is a bubble NHL player, but maybe could blossom somewhere else
Rachats de contrats
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2023
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de PIT
Logo de VGK
Logo de MTL
Logo de CGY
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
2024
Logo de MTL
Logo de COL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de EDM
2025
Logo de MTL
Logo de CGY
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
Logo de MTL
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2283 500 000 $74 626 190 $1 170 000 $4 195 000 $8 873 810 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
7 142 857 $7 142 857 $
AG
UFA - 3
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
C
UFA - 7
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
8 000 000 $8 000 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 8
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
950 000 $950 000 $ (Bonis de performance3 500 000 $$4M)
AD, AG
RFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
3 362 500 $3 362 500 $
C, AD
RFA - 3
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
4 450 000 $4 450 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
1 700 000 $1 700 000 $
C
UFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
900 000 $900 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
900 000 $900 000 $
AD, AG
RFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
900 000 $900 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
875 000 $875 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
5 875 000 $5 875 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Jets de Winnipeg
6 166 667 $6 166 667 $
G
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
4 875 000 $4 875 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance420 000 $$420K)
DG/DD
RFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance275 000 $$275K)
DD
RFA - 1
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
762 500 $762 500 $
DD
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
G
NMC
UFA - 3

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16 sept. 2022 à 21 h 39
#26
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Quoting: jonh514
Both GMs seemed relatively satisfied with the DeBrincat trade.

Then Kyle Davidson is a complete moron
16 sept. 2022 à 21 h 40
#27
What in tarnation
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Quoting: jonh514
You know another recent trade that kind of supports my position more than yours is the Fiala trade.

They got a B+ prospect in Faber and a mid-late 1st for a 2 time 30 goal scorer an PPG player. Clearly Fiala is less good than Connor or DeBrincat but Fiala's value shows a similar trend to the valuation for DeBrincat and Connor that I've offered here.


Your examples are wrong because their circumstances differ so drastically.

Neither DeBrincat or Fiala had any term, Connor has four years left.

CHI committing to a rebuild wanted to get themselves a first round pick they were severely lacking. And collectively people do think OTT absolutely robbed the Hawks.

MIN couldn't afford to keep Fiala at all. They needed to get something for him because they had zero options.
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16 sept. 2022 à 21 h 41
#28
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Quoting: jonh514
You know another recent trade that kind of supports my position more than yours is the Fiala trade.

They got a B+ prospect in Faber and a mid-late 1st for a 2 time 30 goal scorer an PPG player. Clearly Fiala is less good than Connor or DeBrincat but Fiala's value shows a similar trend to the valuation for DeBrincat and Connor that I've offered here.


And Minnesota had no choice but to shed cap their cap situation makes TBs look good. Winnipeg doesn't have that problem bad comparison again.
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16 sept. 2022 à 22 h 2
#29
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Quoting: justaBoss
Recent examples don't have a Top10 LW with term getting traded.

Recent examples don't have a Top10, maybe even Top5 goalie getting traded.

Recent examples don't have a Top4 RHDs in their prime with some term getting traded.

However, recent examples do have cap dumps like Hoffman and Armia getting traded. And they've cost a lot to dump.

For instance, in the Hellebuyck trade you've more or less added enough compensation for a team to take in Hoffman and Armia in Primeau+1st, but you haven't added anything of value for Hellebuyck.

Connor trade value likely exceeds that of Matthew Tkachuk's, given the circumstances around him. Connor has multiple years left and his performance was very even with Tkachuk last year. I'd argue Connor will cost more than Tkachuk did.

Savard was hot garbage last year, but given the lack of RHDs league wide I don't think teams consider him as a cap dump just yet. Still, the difference between him and Pionk is definitely bigger than two former low second round picks, with one of them having their stock dropping as we speak.


First off. I really appreciate you for debating with me using facts rather than just saying everything I say is wrong. FWIW I DID put some thought into this, it was not a "Troll" post.

Your argument regarding "dumping cap" being more expensive than I am offering actually won me over. I saw with Monahan the cost of moving cap. So I will remove both Armia & Hoffman from my trade offer for Hellybuyck. The Habs do not need the cap room anyway and it just muddies up the valuation of Hellybuyck. I still do think a later 1st and a goalie prospect who is expected to be an NHL starter at one point is appropriate for Helly... because the most anyone has paid for a Goalie in a long time was when Minny paid a 1st for Fleury. Goalies do not get value when traded ever. It's just one of those things...

I would argue the Panthers overpaid for Tkachuk because his playoff performance has been pretty poor and he's only had 1 year of that kind of success. That being said there is a scarcity of that kind of player and Connor does not bring the same physical game. I'm definitely not matching what was paid for Tkachuk here, but I disagree that I should need to.
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16 sept. 2022 à 22 h 5
#30
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Quoting: Boltsbeathabs
And Minnesota had no choice but to shed cap their cap situation makes TBs look good. Winnipeg doesn't have that problem bad comparison again.


A rebuilding team who wants to pile up top 10 picks NEEDS to trade a 40+ goal scorer because otherwise they will be doomed to mediocrity like the San Jose Sharks are now.
16 sept. 2022 à 22 h 7
#31
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Quoting: justaBoss
Your examples are wrong because their circumstances differ so drastically.

Neither DeBrincat or Fiala had any term, Connor has four years left.

CHI committing to a rebuild wanted to get themselves a first round pick they were severely lacking. And collectively people do think OTT absolutely robbed the Hawks.

MIN couldn't afford to keep Fiala at all. They needed to get something for him because they had zero options.


What people? Not the people making the trades. People on the internet are never happy with anything!
16 sept. 2022 à 22 h 24
#32
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Quoting: jonh514
A rebuilding team who wants to pile up top 10 picks NEEDS to trade a 40+ goal scorer because otherwise they will be doomed to mediocrity like the San Jose Sharks are now.


Not for pennies on the dollar.
40 goal scorers making < 7.2 million for 4 years returns more than a B+ prospect and a 4oa
16 sept. 2022 à 22 h 45
#33
What in tarnation
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Quoting: jonh514
First off. I really appreciate you for debating with me using facts rather than just saying everything I say is wrong. FWIW I DID put some thought into this, it was not a "Troll" post.

Your argument regarding "dumping cap" being more expensive than I am offering actually won me over. I saw with Monahan the cost of moving cap. So I will remove both Armia & Hoffman from my trade offer for Hellybuyck. The Habs do not need the cap room anyway and it just muddies up the valuation of Hellybuyck. I still do think a later 1st and a goalie prospect who is expected to be an NHL starter at one point is appropriate for Helly... because the most anyone has paid for a Goalie in a long time was when Minny paid a 1st for Fleury. Goalies do not get value when traded ever. It's just one of those things...

I would argue the Panthers overpaid for Tkachuk because his playoff performance has been pretty poor and he's only had 1 year of that kind of success. That being said there is a scarcity of that kind of player and Connor does not bring the same physical game. I'm definitely not matching what was paid for Tkachuk here, but I disagree that I should need to.


On paper Panthers absolutely overpaid for Tkachuk, but there's more nuance to this trade than meets the eye simply by looking at names.

FLA was in a position where they couldn't financially keep both Huberdeau and Weegar, and potentially neither of them. These guys are also older than the rest of their core, such as Barkov, Reinhart, Ekblad and Lundell, so Zito most likely looked for options that fit in better in this age group.

CGY was also in a position where their hands were tied. They had just lost their top player in Gaudreau for absolutely nothing, and their other top player in Tkachuk had told them that he had no intention of staying in Calgary for more than one year. They needed to do something, and given their run last year starting a rebuild wouldn't do them any good, they had some unfinished business.

For both of these teams the respective trade partner had something very interesting to offer. FLA had players to offer for CGY that would keep their window open to compete for a cup again. CGY had a player for FLA that could fit their core and age group perfectly.

Evidently, the trade made sense for both teams. FLA added a complimentary first for CGY because of the potential risk of losing these pending UFAs again after the playoffs, but now with Huberdeau already re-signed, CGY has successfully filled the gap Gaudreau walking left with a long-term option, and strengthened their D with an extremely solid D-man in terms of analytics.

Tkachuk trade in a sense is not value-wise the most sensible trade. The "sense" in it comes from filling the respective needs of both teams at almost equal importance and influence. This makes it also a bad comparison for a Connor trade (especially in a situation where you assume WPG is looking to rebuild), but at the same token there's little to no trades in the recent past that would have a player of Connor's tier getting traded strictly for futures, and with three years left to boot, which also makes the scenario hella unique.

In the other comment where I replied to you used DeBrincat and Fiala as comparisons for a top line winger for futures trade, but they also have the problems that is the term and team situation. WPG doesn't have an actual need or hurry to move Connor anywhere, so the offer would truly have to blast their pants off before they actually would consider moving him.

If anything, considering how good Connor is, I'd consider building a team around him, unless I really got the offer that would absolutely mesmerize me.

Also, Fleury wasn't traded for a first. It was a conditional 2nd that turned into a first if Wild reached the conference finals and Fleury had an agreed amount of wins under him, which ultimately didn't happen. Plus, he's 37, and turning 38 soon. It's not a good comparison Hellebuyck trade, who's almost nine years younger than him, and overall better goalie.
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16 sept. 2022 à 22 h 52
#34
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Quoting: jonh514
4 OA pick in 2023 plus a really strong LW prospect who will definitely play in the NHL for Connor, no good?


Doesn’t even come close for a guy like Barzal so what makes you think this’ll work for Connor?
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16 sept. 2022 à 23 h 1
#35
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Quoting: jonh514
Obviously my assumption "Jets decide to rebuild ahead of the draft in 2023" is the pivotal point here.

I think the value for Connor being similar to DeBrincat but him having more upside is appropriate.

I think the value for Hellybuyck at a late 1st and a good goalie prospect is very fair. Even though Helly is a world class goalie (last year aside) no goalies are ever traded for more than this. If you show me an example of one in the past 5 years who got a better valuation I will gladly eat my words.

I'm not really sure about the Pionk trade. I don't know how good he is. He seems like an expensive 3/4 defensemen who plays great offensively and struggles defensively. Fits well on a fast skating team playing offensive like the Habs want to build. If the value if far off I can cancel that trade, but I would really like to hear some supporting arguments as to why I am so far off the mark.

I did not do this to troll anyone. I think these are reasonable trades.


As everyone has said the trades aren't reasonable are all.

Connor trade - sure 4OA is nice, but the gap between that pick and Connor is more than a dime a dozen wing prospect.

Helleybuyck trade - you're giving up the first to dump Hoffman, are giving the Jets nothing for taking Armia as a dump and think that a marginal goalie prospect gets you a top 5 goalie.

Pionk trade - you're again trying to stick the Jets with a cap dump in Savard without compensating the Jets and offering two nothing special prospects for a very good RH top 4 defenseman.

If you seriously think these are reasonable trades, I don't know what to say, other than you haven't being paying much attention at all to trades or the cost to get rid of cap dumps.
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17 sept. 2022 à 6 h 56
#36
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Quoting: Windjammer
As everyone has said the trades aren't reasonable are all.

Connor trade - sure 4OA is nice, but the gap between that pick and Connor is more than a dime a dozen wing prospect.

Helleybuyck trade - you're giving up the first to dump Hoffman, are giving the Jets nothing for taking Armia as a dump and think that a marginal goalie prospect gets you a top 5 goalie.

Pionk trade - you're again trying to stick the Jets with a cap dump in Savard without compensating the Jets and offering two nothing special prospects for a very good RH top 4 defenseman.

If you seriously think these are reasonable trades, I don't know what to say, other than you haven't being paying much attention at all to trades or the cost to get rid of cap dumps.


In the 2015 redraft on most sites Connor goes 7-10.

2023 draft is going to be stronger than 2015 and you would be getting the 4OA.

What is unreasonable is the expectation that Connor, who is an Elite talent, be evaluated at more than what the market generally pays for a player.

Yager, Dvorsky, Richie, Benson... Many of these players will be as good as Connor is nice they mature and you get one of them at a fraction of the cost and for a lot more years.

If a team was rebuilding, getting access to one of these players is a huge step. Obviously not if you want to compete today, but if you plan to rebuild.
17 sept. 2022 à 10 h 4
#37
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Quoting: jonh514
First off. I really appreciate you for debating with me using facts rather than just saying everything I say is wrong. FWIW I DID put some thought into this, it was not a "Troll" post.

Your argument regarding "dumping cap" being more expensive than I am offering actually won me over. I saw with Monahan the cost of moving cap. So I will remove both Armia & Hoffman from my trade offer for Hellybuyck. The Habs do not need the cap room anyway and it just muddies up the valuation of Hellybuyck. I still do think a later 1st and a goalie prospect who is expected to be an NHL starter at one point is appropriate for Helly... because the most anyone has paid for a Goalie in a long time was when Minny paid a 1st for Fleury. Goalies do not get value when traded ever. It's just one of those things...

I would argue the Panthers overpaid for Tkachuk because his playoff performance has been pretty poor and he's only had 1 year of that kind of success. That being said there is a scarcity of that kind of player and Connor does not bring the same physical game. I'm definitely not matching what was paid for Tkachuk here, but I disagree that I should need to.


Didn't really think common sense needed much more of an explanation,however you have again shown me common sense isn't common.
17 sept. 2022 à 11 h 9
#38
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Quoting: jonh514
In the 2015 redraft on most sites Connor goes 7-10.

2023 draft is going to be stronger than 2015 and you would be getting the 4OA.

What is unreasonable is the expectation that Connor, who is an Elite talent, be evaluated at more than what the market generally pays for a player.

Yager, Dvorsky, Richie, Benson... Many of these players will be as good as Connor is nice they mature and you get one of them at a fraction of the cost and for a lot more years.

If a team was rebuilding, getting access to one of these players is a huge step. Obviously not if you want to compete today, but if you plan to rebuild.


None of those players are a guarantee, while Connor is. You know what you're getting with Connor, 35-45 goals on a great contract for 3 years after this one. If you think a single magic bean and a mediocre wing prospect comes close to that, you're incredibly biased.

It seems you're going through a whole lot of gymnastics to try and justify some very poor offers. Instead of actually trying to be realistic and taking into account Winnipeg's viewpoint and motivation for selling so low and taking back 3 cap dumps on 3 deals, if they are rebuilding per your premise.
 
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