Forums/NHL Signings

Ottawa Senators signed Tim Stützle (8 Years / $8,350,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
Le graphique a été masqué

Options de sondage


8 sept. à 4 h 5
#101
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: févr. 2022
Messages: 1,408
Mentions "j'aime": 808
Quoting: SlicedCheese
A simple message to the idiots that voted no, an offer sheet at this price costs a team a 1 First Round Pick, 1 Second Round Pick and a 1 Third Round Pick. Every Team in the League would LOVE to grab a player like Jimmy at this price. After the Bedard Lottery Offer Sheets would have been Plenty!


watch out when you are using the word idiot, cause it can come back in your face! an offersheet is put on a 5 year term, so if he signed that it would be 4 first round pick when you put it on a 5 year term with the AAV . (you can go sign an RFA in armchair Gm to see for yourself).
DongLord23 a aimé ceci.
8 sept. à 6 h 7
#102
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2021
Messages: 465
Mentions "j'aime": 308
Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
Why in the world would a 3rd overall pick’s second year in the league on a bad team in his D+2 season be his ceiling?? That premise makes zero sense…


It's happened before. Teemu Selanne never topped his rookie year.

Hell, all it takes is one niggling injury to derail a career.
8 sept. à 6 h 18
#103
Jimmy Stu
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2016
Messages: 1,319
Mentions "j'aime": 457
There's always risk but my goodness he looked amazing the last 30 games. Dictated play in a third of them. He's still 21 and growing as a player so yeah. A little aggressive for maybe the 1st year but I think in year 2 it will look great.
Top 2 C not over 8.5m. I'm more worried about Norris but Cap going up in 3 years, could be amazing... Could be awful lol. Can't wait to find out
8 sept. à 6 h 19
#104
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2021
Messages: 465
Mentions "j'aime": 308
Quoting: SlicedCheese
A simple message to the idiots that voted no, an offer sheet at this price costs a team a 1 First Round Pick, 1 Second Round Pick and a 1 Third Round Pick. Every Team in the League would LOVE to grab a player like Jimmy at this price. After the Bedard Lottery Offer Sheets would have been Plenty!


No. Better players didn't get offer sheets at this price range, because the cost is too high.

There's a reason Kotkaniemi is the first player in over a decade to change teams via offer sheet.
8 sept. à 7 h 58
#105
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: mars 2017
Messages: 20,073
Mentions "j'aime": 6,252
Quoting: sensonfire
Anything less than what Leon Draisaitl signed for back in the Summer of 2017 is just gravy awesome face

Vote yes.


Quoting: EmpressKayla
Stutzle isn't as good as Hughes right now, but he could be. It's a high-risk-high-reward contract that could look like a steal (precedent: Leon Draisaitl).

I don't get the Draisaitl references. Leon was MUCH more accomplished than Stuztle is when he signed that deal, AND that deal was considered an overpay for what he had accomplished at the time. Sure he became a 50-goal, 100-point player after a fairly pedestrian (for a superstar) start, but how often does that happen? Exactly never - Leon is the only guy to play at that level without being named a can't miss, generational talent from an early age.

Season prior to signing:
LD: 82, 29-48-77 +7 [0.94 P/GP]
TS: 79, 22-36-58 -27 [0.73 P/GP]

2 seasons prior:
LD: 154, 48-80-128 +5 [0.83 P/GP]
TS: 132, 34-53-87 -45 [0.66 P/GP]
DongLord23 a aimé ceci.
8 sept. à 11 h 56
#106
marry me saquon
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2020
Messages: 467
Mentions "j'aime": 432
Quoting: GenXHockey
Really? Did you miss last season?


i mean i'm not saying that he has the talent but he couldn't stay healthy whatsoever last season, and if he can't elevate the rest of the team to perform for the next few seasons it's gonna be another jack eichel anchor
8 sept. à 12 h 2
#107
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2022
Messages: 11
Mentions "j'aime": 3
Quoting: drambui
watch out when you are using the word idiot, cause it can come back in your face! an offersheet is put on a 5 year term, so if he signed that it would be 4 first round pick when you put it on a 5 year term with the AAV . (you can go sign an RFA in armchair Gm to see for yourself).


I know Im an Idiot, We all are. Im just not on this occasion and I would bet the Farm on it. Teams do 1 year offer sheets and work out a deal afterwards like what was done with KK. This will be the new norm since offer sheets were traditionally used on what are considered illegal contracts now, ie. Weber.

Quoting: CSStrowbridge
It's happened before. Teemu Selanne never topped his rookie year.


Hall of Famer Teemu Selanne?
8 sept. à 12 h 22
#108
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: févr. 2022
Messages: 1,408
Mentions "j'aime": 808
Quoting: SlicedCheese
I know Im an Idiot, We all are. Im just not on this occasion and I would bet the Farm on it. Teams do 1 year offer sheets and work out a deal afterwards like what was done with KK. This will be the new norm since offer sheets were traditionally used on what are considered illegal contracts now, ie. Weber.



Hall of Famer Teemu Selanne?


All im saying is max term with this AAV would be 4 first. how other scenario would play out, thats totally different. i dont think you're an idiot.
8 sept. à 12 h 39
#109
Formerly Jamiepo
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2018
Messages: 20,933
Mentions "j'aime": 10,624
Quoting: SnakeDelilah
i mean i'm not saying that he has the talent but he couldn't stay healthy whatsoever last season, and if he can't elevate the rest of the team to perform for the next few seasons it's gonna be another jack eichel anchor


It's one season. Reminds me of the Matthews chatter.
8 sept. à 12 h 56
#110
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2018
Messages: 292
Mentions "j'aime": 210
Fair deal in General, great deal for Ottawa. Context matters, a team who had a divisive owner, who passed away this year, had low attendance, having the ability to get long term deals on all of their young core despite the rumors of a big cap jump in a few years is a pretty significant win. They are betting that some of these deals will age very well, chances are the worst of them aren't great, but the cap jump will make them manageable, and they will have a solid core to use to attract players for a legitimate window of relevance. I think that's some pretty good work.
HockeyScotty a aimé ceci.
8 sept. à 19 h 31
#111
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: avr. 2018
Messages: 2,110
Mentions "j'aime": 911
Quoting: CSStrowbridge
It's happened before. Teemu Selanne never topped his rookie year.

Hell, all it takes is one niggling injury to derail a career.


Agreed it’s always a possibility and I’m not sure Selanne is the best example considering he still had multiple 100 point and 50 goal seasons, not to mention finishing over a ppg on his career.

But the comment was ridiculous because you could say that about literally any contract in any sport. “As long as the season he’s coming off isn’t his ceiling the deal will look fine.” OBViously… 😂😂
8 sept. à 21 h 36
#112
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: avr. 2018
Messages: 2,110
Mentions "j'aime": 911
Quoting: HockeyScotty
All these moves, to me, look like Dorion negotiated some type of % on the franchise sale to a new owner. It's working because he's driving ticket sales, merchandise sales, etc.

The teams valuation is probably going to increase 30% or more since Melnyk passed away.


For a long time before his passing, Melnyk had been blocking moves on and off the ice that would have been best for the franchise but didn’t necessarily fit his vision.

It truly was a situation where he just vetoed everything he didn’t agree with, even if the reason was clearly personal and had nothing to do with with the team being in a better position.

It seems as if Anna and Olivia are pushing for what’s best for the city and the franchise. Inheriting the team from their father was the best thing fans could have asked for. Talks for the arena downtown reopened. Dorion was green lighted for FA signings, trades and resigning players long term. Season ticket sales are up 60% right now and for good reason! The training wheels are off.
9 sept. à 13 h 26
#113
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juin 2019
Messages: 1,289
Mentions "j'aime": 501
Quoting: Boltsbeathabs
How much more does It cost after the bridge?
Pay for the 20's is the better strategy


I really can't imagine he will be worth much more than that in 3-4 years. Paying him less now gives the team more wiggle room to make a team, which is a lot more important... their cap situation will be much better after Giroux.
9 sept. à 16 h 58
#114
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2021
Messages: 465
Mentions "j'aime": 308
Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
But the comment was ridiculous because you could say that about literally any contract in any sport. “As long as the season he’s coming off isn’t his ceiling the deal will look fine.” OBViously… 😂😂


Not true. At lot of contracts look good even if the player doesn't live up to the past season. I would argue most smart contracts are made with more than one season in mind.

Stützle has played only two years and that's not enough data to say if he's worth this much over this many seasons. A bridge contract would have been the smarter play.
9 sept. à 17 h 1
#115
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2021
Messages: 465
Mentions "j'aime": 308
Quoting: SlicedCheese
Hall of Famer Teemu Selanne?


Stützle's points per game pace was less than half of Selanne's rookie season. If Stützle drops significantly, then he isn't going to last another 8-years in the league.
9 sept. à 18 h 42
#116
Majors and minors
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: mai 2017
Messages: 153
Mentions "j'aime": 30
I can't say whether its a good deal from a bad deal.... Dorion thought Stutzle was going to elevate his game... but he's the GM and he's supposed to support his decisions. Can't say if its a good signing or not. All i can say is, I hope Otts has sufficient funds set aside for Mr Debrincat's signing (or else there's an eventual trade deadline date on Dorion's calendar).
19 sept. à 12 h 1
#117
couldnt afford 2nd t
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: sept. 2021
Messages: 501
Mentions "j'aime": 206
If Stutzle signs a 2 year bridge next season, does he cost less than 5.75M on a 2 year extension?

After a 2 year bridge, how likely are the Senators to get Stutzle on a 6 year contract at 9.216M without signing bonuses or a NMC?

Those are his average real money salaries if you break this up into two contracts.

Given that the Senators are not a cap ceiling team, that is how you should look at this deal. His cap hit over the next 3 years is unlikely to come into play, unless there is a sale of the team, or unless they are successful in generating enough revenue to become a team that spends to the cap ceiling and beyond (with LTIR).

Even if Stutzle peaks as a 65 point 1B type center, I think it's unlikely they get him for much less than 9.216M after a 2 year bridge deal. We have seen multiple players sign for around 8, so there is an established trend, and 3 years from now when a bridge contract would be up, escrow should be paid off. Which means we could see a cap in the 90-100 million range.

For anybody who has both watched Stutzle and follows the cap, this is all obvious stuff. This contract is not a bargain. Stutzle didn't leave money on the table (although he was soft on terms). With that said, based on the market, it is unlikely he would have accepted 6 or 7 million on an 8 year term. The risk of letting him play this season out, and/or letting him bridge himself to the largest escalation of the cap we might see in this era is very high.

The Norris contract is much easier to get worried about, because Norris was never a high end prospect, and his rise in production caught everybody by surprise. He is a fantastic athlete, and his shooting percentage has been consistent his entire pro career, but he took significantly more shots last year than he ever has, and most of his PP goals were scored from the same spot on the ice. So while I understand the reason why the Senators might want to cost control Norris, and as a Sens fan I agree with them pulling the trigger on the contract, I think there is a lot more risk there.

With Stutzle, I am astounded that people can't see the writing on the wall. This is a 1st overall tier player. Very few players have produced like him at his age and not gone on to be stars. He is also a center. We're on the verge of the cap escalating. His peak salary under this contract is 10M, and his AAV is locked in at 8.35M. The contract was signed a year early. So it will take 5 years for the Senators to reach the second half of the contract. In 5 years, where is the cap going to be? 100M? 110M? Higher? Let's put it this way, if the cap is up to 100M 5 years from now, this AAV is the equivalent of having a player signed for 6.88M under the current cap ceiling. If the cap reaching 110M, this contract is the equivalent of a 6.26M cap hit. If Stutzle never improves ever, that's still fine value. If he reaches is peak, that's ridiculous value on par with MacKinnon's contract. If it's somewhere in the middle, it is still insane value.
20 sept. à 20 h 53
#118
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2021
Messages: 410
Mentions "j'aime": 199
So the last piece of the puzzle is to sign DeBrincat to an extension. That will be more difficult because they’ll have to give him a good reason not to simply accept his qualifying offer and walk into unrestricted free agency in the minimum number of years. Hopefully he’ll be excited about what they’ve been doing and he’ll want to be part of it.

What the Senators are doing reminds me a little of when the Leafs were trying to get their young stars signed a few years ago. Giroux is their Marleau – he’ll mentor their young players while contributing on the second line – and I guess DeBrincat is their Tavares – the big money acquisition brought in to augment the homegrown talent – though obviously he’s much younger and they still have to sign him. I thought it would be interesting to compare their situations, since Toronto is often criticized for having too much cap hit tied up in the top end of their lineup.

Toronto is now spending $48M in cap hit on their top 5 players. If Ottawa can extend DeBrincat for $10.5M AAV then when that kicks in they’ll have $43M tied up in their top 5. However, they’ve already spent $5M in cap hit on buyouts and retained salary that Toronto doesn’t have. So for the 2023-24 season, Ottawa will have the same amount of cap as Toronto to spend on the rest of their lineup. The problem is, I don’t think Ottawa’s top 5 is as good as Toronto’s. DeBrincat and Tkachuk are probably their best players, but I don’t think they’re in the same class as Matthews and Marner. The others are probably more comparable to Nylander, and I haven’t seen Chabot play much but I don’t think he’s as good as Rielly. However, as long as their players continue to perform, Ottawa’s pain will be short term, because the majority of the buyouts will be off the books in 2024, and they have their players signed much longer than Toronto’s. Toronto is going to have to spend more than $48M in cap hit to keep those guys beyond the next two years. If they can do that, even if the cap goes up they may not be any better off than they are now, whereas Ottawa will be set for years.

It'll be interesting to see how the battle of Ontario plays out over the next few years. According to my brother, no matter what situation they’re in, Ottawa will always win in the regular season but Toronto will beat them in the playoffs.
 
Répondre
To create a post please Login or S'inscrire
Question:
Options:
Chargement de l'animation
Soumettre les modifications du sondage