couldnt afford 2nd t
Rejoint: sept. 2021
Mentions "j'aime": 206
If Stutzle signs a 2 year bridge next season, does he cost less than 5.75M on a 2 year extension?
After a 2 year bridge, how likely are the Senators to get Stutzle on a 6 year contract at 9.216M without signing bonuses or a NMC?
Those are his average real money salaries if you break this up into two contracts.
Given that the Senators are not a cap ceiling team, that is how you should look at this deal. His cap hit over the next 3 years is unlikely to come into play, unless there is a sale of the team, or unless they are successful in generating enough revenue to become a team that spends to the cap ceiling and beyond (with LTIR).
Even if Stutzle peaks as a 65 point 1B type center, I think it's unlikely they get him for much less than 9.216M after a 2 year bridge deal. We have seen multiple players sign for around 8, so there is an established trend, and 3 years from now when a bridge contract would be up, escrow should be paid off. Which means we could see a cap in the 90-100 million range.
For anybody who has both watched Stutzle and follows the cap, this is all obvious stuff. This contract is not a bargain. Stutzle didn't leave money on the table (although he was soft on terms). With that said, based on the market, it is unlikely he would have accepted 6 or 7 million on an 8 year term. The risk of letting him play this season out, and/or letting him bridge himself to the largest escalation of the cap we might see in this era is very high.
The Norris contract is much easier to get worried about, because Norris was never a high end prospect, and his rise in production caught everybody by surprise. He is a fantastic athlete, and his shooting percentage has been consistent his entire pro career, but he took significantly more shots last year than he ever has, and most of his PP goals were scored from the same spot on the ice. So while I understand the reason why the Senators might want to cost control Norris, and as a Sens fan I agree with them pulling the trigger on the contract, I think there is a lot more risk there.
With Stutzle, I am astounded that people can't see the writing on the wall. This is a 1st overall tier player. Very few players have produced like him at his age and not gone on to be stars. He is also a center. We're on the verge of the cap escalating. His peak salary under this contract is 10M, and his AAV is locked in at 8.35M. The contract was signed a year early. So it will take 5 years for the Senators to reach the second half of the contract. In 5 years, where is the cap going to be? 100M? 110M? Higher? Let's put it this way, if the cap is up to 100M 5 years from now, this AAV is the equivalent of having a player signed for 6.88M under the current cap ceiling. If the cap reaching 110M, this contract is the equivalent of a 6.26M cap hit. If Stutzle never improves ever, that's still fine value. If he reaches is peak, that's ridiculous value on par with MacKinnon's contract. If it's somewhere in the middle, it is still insane value.