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Ottawa Senators signed Tim Stützle (8 Years / $8,350,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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7 sept. 2022 à 19 h 41
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Since they moved him to C, he was tremendous. He was point per game for nearly half the season.

He did not give them a discount, but he also would be more expensive this time next year if he has a big season. Even if he has a subpar season and they go with a bridge, he won't be much cheaper on the bridge than the 5.75M real cash AAV he is signed for in the first two years of the extension. Then there is the enormous risk that once escrow gets paid back, and the cap increases, the cost to sign him to a third contract will be drastically higher than what he signed for now.

The dynamic with this deal is very similar to the Jack Hughes extension, except that Stutzle has shown a lot more than Hughes had at the time he signed. Both have similar pedigrees.

It's very unlikely the Senators will regret this contract. 2-3 years into the contract, we will see a 90-100 million dollar cap, and Stutzle will be wishing he signed less term.
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7 sept. 2022 à 19 h 47
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Quoting: GenXHockey
Here's the issue, if he does get there this season you still have to pay out his projection from there. That's how you end up with a marner deal. After a 69 point season he was looking for 8 x 9m... that would sure look nice now wouldn't it?


From what I see if he has a ppg season he still signs this deal. Its only if he has 100 pt season he gets more.
7 sept. 2022 à 19 h 48
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Quoting: Blazingbat11
Dorion really doing a "Make it or break it" off season. I liked the acquisitions of Giroux, Debrincat, and Talbot. but maybe wait and see if this team can actually pull it together before doling out all these long term deals to guys like Stutzle and Norris.... lots of risk


Quoting: yikes
I love Timmy - this is a BOLD play. Love to see the aggressiveness from Ottawa but this is a bold move.


Quoting: aadoyle
Its a Gamble that could pay off well or blow up in their faces

In general unless its a guy like McDavid, Matthews, Marner, Draisaitl, Barkov, etc not a super big fan of early extensions


Quoting: drewjenkins
Nylander got $6,900,000 after 61 + 61 point seasons and people still like to call him "massively overpaid".
Marner got $10,800,000 after 70 + 94 point seasons and people call it the "worst contract in the league".

Then after zero salary cap growth:

Norris gets $8,000,000 after 35 + 55 point seasons?
Stutzle gets $8,400,000 after 29 + 58 point seasons?
Chabot gets $8,000,000 after 25 + 55 point seasons?
Tkachuk gets $8,200,000 after 44 + 45 point seasons?

And everyone's acting like Dorion is getting great value?

DeBrincat has been a 40G / 80P player for years.

He's gonna get $13,000,000 at this rate.


Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
Why in the world would a 3rd overall pick’s second year in the league on a bad team in his D+2 season be his ceiling?? That premise makes zero sense…


All these moves, to me, look like Dorion negotiated some type of % on the franchise sale to a new owner. It's working because he's driving ticket sales, merchandise sales, etc.

The teams valuation is probably going to increase 30% or more since Melnyk passed away.
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7 sept. 2022 à 20 h 11
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Quoting: mvp13
The contract is OK on its own, but it looks bad for team cap management. He should have been bridged until Giroux expired. As of this moment, OTT has 11 contracts next year with 22.6mil space, with Debrincat to sign. Figure he gets 9mil especially after this deal. That's 12 signed contracts and 13.6mil space, with no starting goalie and only 2 NHL defensemen signed. 1mil per roster spot. That is really rough.

Unless, Debrincat goes elsewhere... but, that's my take on it. Stutzle probably is worth it, but the team likely suffers 1 or 2 years with this.

I'm also really worried how this will impact the Laffy situation, but...


How much more does It cost after the bridge?
Pay for the 20's is the better strategy
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7 sept. 2022 à 20 h 17
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
All these moves, to me, look like Dorion negotiated some type of % on the franchise sale to a new owner. It's working because he's driving ticket sales, merchandise sales, etc.

The teams valuation is probably going to increase 30% or more since Melnyk passed away.


To be fair 25% of that is just from firing Pierre Maguire.

But for real, the only thing that will majorly influence their valuation is breaking ground at LeBreton Flats. Look at what's happened to the New York Islanders. Valued at 395mil in 2017 before they won their bid for the new arena, to over 500mil by the time they broke ground in 2019, and now that the arena is up and running they're nearly a billion dollar franchise. Now Ottawa obviously isn't New York, but it's very clear that whatever money they put into the new arena they will more than get back when it comes time to sell
7 sept. 2022 à 20 h 33
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Quoting: BCAPP
From what I see if he has a ppg season he still signs this deal. Its only if he has 100 pt season he gets more.


Really? How many ppg 21 year olds sign for 8m? Marner didn't get 100 points and he got 11m.

If he is a ppg player he is signing an eight figure deal.
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7 sept. 2022 à 20 h 54
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Quoting: GenXHockey
Really? How many ppg 21 year olds sign for 8m? Marner didn't get 100 points and he got 11m.

If he is a ppg player he is signing an eight figure deal.


10.5% of salary cap.

That would be comparable to Patrick Kane, Taylor Hall, draisaitl

All around 10-11.3% of cap.

Kopitar was ppg his second year a little less his third and a dominant 2 way c
Kane was ppg for year 2 and 3
Hall was ppg year 3
7 sept. 2022 à 20 h 57
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Svechnikov: 8 x $7.75 million...97% say good deal
Connor: 7 x $7.14 million...95% say good deal
Kucherov: 8 x $9.5 million...93% say good deal
M. Tkachuk: 8 x $9.5 million...86% say good deal
Seguin: 8 x $9.85 million...85% say good deal
Nugent-Hopkins: 8 x $5.13 million...85% say good deal
McDavid: 8 x $12.5 million...81% say good deal
Duchene: 7 x $8.0 million...78% say good deal
Fiala: 7 x $7.88 million...75% say good deal
Eriksson Ek: 8 x $5.25 million...71% say good deal
Suzuki: 8 x $7.88 million...70% say good deal
Eichel: 8 x $10.0 million...70% say good deal
Tavares: 7 x $11.0 million...68% say good deal
Norris: 8 x $7.95 million...65% say good deal
Draisaitl: 8 x $8.5 million...63% say good deal
Stone: 8 x $9.5 million...63% say good deal
Stützle: 8 x $8.35 million...62% say good deal
Hischier: 7 x $7.25 million...59% say good deal
Johansen: 8 x $8.0 million...59% say good deal
Keller: 8 x $7.15 million...58% say good deal
Lee: 7 x $7.0 million...58% say good deal
Thomas: 8 x $8.13 million...51% say good deal
Hughes: 8 x $8.00 million...49% say good deal
B. Tkachuk: 7 x $8.21 million...39% say good deal
Kuznetsov: 8 x $7.8 million...39% say good deal
Tage: 7 x $7.14 million...34% say good deal
Hertl: 8 x $8.14 million...26% say good deal


Explain that pattern to me


There is no pattern. It's all subjective. The field of voters are biased and unbalanced.

It's comical that 34% say Tage was overpaid when he put up 38G 30A. $7.14mm/yr
And here is Stutzle, at 62% who is making more money and put up 22G 36A. $8.35mm/yr

And these deals are signed only days apart, so it's not like the landscape has changed.
7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 9
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Modifié 7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 15
Quoting: HockeyScotty
All these moves, to me, look like Dorion negotiated some type of % on the franchise sale to a new owner. It's working because he's driving ticket sales, merchandise sales, etc.

The teams valuation is probably going to increase 30% or more since Melnyk passed away.


Oh and Alfie is 100% getting involved in this situation. He alone would cause at least a couple dozen or more families buying seasons tickets.

His era of the Sens is an all time classic. Not on the same parameters of the greatest teams of all time, but on a pure entertainment level.
7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 10
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Modifié 7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 16
Quoting: BCAPP
10.5% of salary cap.

That would be comparable to Patrick Kane, Taylor Hall, draisaitl

All around 10-11.3% of cap.

Kopitar was ppg his second year a little less his third and a dominant 2 way c
Kane was ppg for year 2 and 3
Hall was ppg year 3


I think you just provided proof for me... Kane signed a bridge. And was ages ago. Hall wasn't a ppg and he signed ages ago. Drasaitl's deal for less than ppg production is still more than Stutzle's in literal dollars, not even %... and that was 5 years ago!!! Lol.

It's a different league than it used to be. The kids want to get paid for their projection if they are going to sign these long term deals. Jersey just cashed in on making a similar deal with Hughes. People complained then and he just tore it up with a nearly 100 point 40+ goal pace.
7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 11
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Quoting: BCAPP
From what I see if he has a ppg season he still signs this deal. Its only if he has 100 pt season he gets more.


Your looking at things the wrong way. The reality is that if they go into next season and let him play it out, there is a very low chance he is getting less than 8 million, so why play it out?

The internal salary structure is a big influence on what players on the same team ask for. It is why Marner wanted so much after Matthews got paid. Josh Norris got a shade under 8 million for 35 goals and 55 points in 66 games. Norris also doesn't have the pedigree and ceiling that Stutzle is projected to have. I'd imagine if Stutzle goes PPG, he is asking for a 5-6 year term, or some sort of consolation to get down to 8.35M. Just based on how internal comparisons are going to effect negotiations, the Senators were never getting him for less than 8 million because he is ahead of Norris in the pecking order. So it makes no sense to risk going into the season, and giving him a chance to increase his value.

You also have to factor in the dynamic of how the Senators team works. They are currently a budget team, with a budget somewhere around 75 million. That means, they only care about the yearly salary, not the cap hit. Stutzle makes an average of 5.75M on the first two years of the extension. That's similar to what he would cost if they bridged him. If the Senators fortunes change, and they become a cap team within the next 3-4 seasons, this contract functions like signing Stutzle to a 2 year 5.75M bridge deal, and then a 6 year 8.35M ARB RFA+UFA year deal. With escrow projected to be paid back within 3 years, if he is a 70+ point first line center, he would get a lot more than 8.35M after a 2 year bridge deal.

This is the kind of contract where everything would have to go wrong for it not to work out for the Senators. The worst realistic scenario is that it is just alright value. The only slight on this contract is that people feel the Senators should have received a greater discount for taking the risk on Stutzle and signing early. The reality is, the player is taking a much greater risk here, and I think he will quickly regret not going with a bridge when 3-4 years from now we see what his contemporaries who didn't get locked in are getting under the new cap ceiling after escrow is paid back.

Salaries are going to escalate dramatically 3-4 years from now, starting with Matthews getting max (probably from Arizona lol) and everybody else getting big deals (relative to their position) as the cap ceiling approaches 100M after escrow is paid back. The projection for the cap before COVID was as high as 88.5M. That was before the new US TV deal. If not for COVID, we'd be close to 100M right now.
7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 17
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Quoting: worldwidesensei
There is no pattern. It's all subjective. The field of voters are biased and unbalanced.

It's comical that 34% say Tage was overpaid when he put up 38G 30A. $7.14mm/yr
And here is Stutzle, at 62% who is making more money and put up 22G 36A. $8.35mm/yr

And these deals are signed only days apart, so it's not like the landscape has changed.


People need to understand that superstar RFAs no longer take discounts when compared to star UFAs.

Teams get their discounts on everybody else, but the superstars pretty much get UFA money. They don't always get top end UFA terms (signing bonuses, NMC, etc).

The reason people are down on Tage Thompson is because he is a late bloomer, and while he was a 1st round pick he wasn't thought to be a sure thing superstar.

Stutzle has all the skills and tools to be a franchise player, and was never a project type player who spent years developing in the NHL. When people say Stutzle's contract is good, they are projecting against what he will be in a position to ask for after a reasonable season. I think a lot of people probably don't watch Tage Thompson and aren't in a position to evaluate him, but they want to join the discussion, so they lean back on generalities based on his career arc. The idea of a player who is almost 25 years old, and had his career high of 14 points at 24 years old getting a 7 year 50M contract a year later is going to look like a bad move to someone just going on generalities because they do not watch or scout the player. Compare that to a 20 year old going on 21, who was drafted 3rd overall (touted as a 1st overall tier talent), who has consistently elevated his game from the age of 18-20, and went point per game for almost half a season since switching to center, and when people rely on generalities they are going to be a lot more welcoming to the idea that Stutzle will probably live up to this contract.
7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 17
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Quoting: GenXHockey
I think you just provided proof for me... Kane signed a bridge. And was ages ago. Hall signed ages ago. Drasaitl's deal for less than ppg production is still more than Stutzle's in literal dollars, not even %... and that was 5 years ago!!! Lol.

It's a different league than it used to be. The kids want to get paid for their projection if they are going to sign these long term deals. Jersey just cashed in on making a similar deal with Hughes. People complained then and he just tore it up with a nearly 100 point 40+ goal pace.


Kane didn't sign a bridge. It was a 6 year deal that walked him to Ufa. So no...

Draisaitl was coming off an essentially ppg season 77 pts in 82 GP. And when you include playoffs 93 pts in 95 gp. Again he also was a dominant c.

Hall did sign a while ago but again was was ppg.
7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 29
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Quoting: budgeteam
People need to understand that superstar RFAs no longer take discounts when compared to star UFAs.

Teams get their discounts on everybody else, but the superstars pretty much get UFA money. They don't always get top end UFA terms (signing bonuses, NMC, etc).

The reason people are down on Tage Thompson is because he is a late bloomer, and while he was a 1st round pick he wasn't thought to be a sure thing superstar.

Stutzle has all the skills and tools to be a franchise player, and was never a project type player who spent years developing in the NHL. When people say Stutzle's contract is good, they are projecting against what he will be in a position to ask for after a reasonable season. I think a lot of people probably don't watch Tage Thompson and aren't in a position to evaluate him, but they want to join the discussion, so they lean back on generalities based on his career arc. The idea of a player who is almost 25 years old, and had his career high of 14 points at 24 years old getting a 7 year 50M contract a year later is going to look like a bad move to someone just going on generalities because they do not watch or scout the player. Compare that to a 20 year old going on 21, who was drafted 3rd overall (touted as a 1st overall tier talent), who has consistently elevated his game from the age of 18-20, and went point per game for almost half a season since switching to center, and when people rely on generalities they are going to be a lot more welcoming to the idea that Stutzle will probably live up to this contract.


As I said, biased and unbalanced. In both cases, no one knows the future. The contracts are for future years, not past years. Tell me when Stutzle reaches 38+ goals and then, he'd probably need to hit 5-10 more goals, since he is being paid $1.2mm more. 22G is not in the same realm as 38G.
7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 31
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Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
All long term contracts carry risk. There's a chance the contract doesn't work out just like there was a chance Draisaitl's contract wouldn't work out; but I feel like this is a good bet.

They now Stutzle, Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk and Chabot locked up until 2027 for under 37.5M.


Yes, but guys usually get long term contract based on their production now. Draisaitl was 8th in scoring when he got his contract. Stutzle's production now isn't no where near worth 8.35M.
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7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 37
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Svechnikov: 8 x $7.75 million...97% say good deal
Connor: 7 x $7.14 million...95% say good deal
Kucherov: 8 x $9.5 million...93% say good deal
M. Tkachuk: 8 x $9.5 million...86% say good deal
Seguin: 8 x $9.85 million...85% say good deal
Nugent-Hopkins: 8 x $5.13 million...85% say good deal
McDavid: 8 x $12.5 million...81% say good deal
Duchene: 7 x $8.0 million...78% say good deal
Fiala: 7 x $7.88 million...75% say good deal
Eriksson Ek: 8 x $5.25 million...71% say good deal
Suzuki: 8 x $7.88 million...70% say good deal
Eichel: 8 x $10.0 million...70% say good deal
Tavares: 7 x $11.0 million...68% say good deal
Norris: 8 x $7.95 million...65% say good deal
Draisaitl: 8 x $8.5 million...63% say good deal
Stone: 8 x $9.5 million...63% say good deal
Stützle: 8 x $8.35 million...62% say good deal
Hischier: 7 x $7.25 million...59% say good deal
Johansen: 8 x $8.0 million...59% say good deal
Keller: 8 x $7.15 million...58% say good deal
Lee: 7 x $7.0 million...58% say good deal
Thomas: 8 x $8.13 million...51% say good deal
Hughes: 8 x $8.00 million...49% say good deal
B. Tkachuk: 7 x $8.21 million...39% say good deal
Kuznetsov: 8 x $7.8 million...39% say good deal
Tage: 7 x $7.14 million...34% say good deal
Hertl: 8 x $8.14 million...26% say good deal


Explain that pattern to me


I think a pretty good rule of thumb, with the salary cap currently at $82.5mm, is $1mm for every 10 points for forwards. Of course there are other factors, such as 2-way play, leadership, etc, but at the end of the day, GMs pay forwards for their offensive production.

If a player is on a $8.35mm deal, they should be putting up roughly 83 points.

Obviously, Stutzle has until the 2023-2024 season to reach that level. Then as the salary cap explodes, that $1mm will be for every 7-9 points, or whatever the math works out to be.
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7 sept. 2022 à 21 h 47
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Quoting: BCAPP
Kane didn't sign a bridge. It was a 6 year deal that walked him to Ufa. So no...

Draisaitl was coming off an essentially ppg season 77 pts in 82 GP. And when you include playoffs 93 pts in 95 gp. Again he also was a dominant c.

Hall did sign a while ago but again was was ppg.


Kane signed a 5 year deal, not a bridge but not 8 years of term either. Hall signed full 7 years. Which still isn't 8 and had 53 points in 61 games. Still not a ppg player. (Remember, like Stutzle hall signed his deal a year early).

My point stands. Stutzle could easily demand 10m+ next season. We don't know how well he is going to do on this much improved team. The kid is chalked full of raw talent. I think it really sticks my point when hall is the only % below Stutzle of all the players you named and he signed a year early,
7 sept. 2022 à 22 h 9
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Quoting: GenXHockey
Kane signed a 5 year deal, not a bridge but not 8 years of term either. Hall signed full 7 years. Which still isn't 8 and had 53 points in 61 games. Still not a ppg player. (Remember, like Stutzle hall signed his deal a year early).

My point stands. Stutzle could easily demand 10m+ next season. We don't know how well he is going to do on this much improved team. The kid is chalked full of raw talent. I think it really sticks my point when hall is the only % below Stutzle of all the players you named and he signed a year early,


Sure but none of those guys were anywhere near the percent needed to be an 8 figure deal that you predicted.

I just think the risk benefit is larger than needed. I think there is a very real chance he gets like 24 g and 60 pts. Then this is a pretty rich deal. Let alone if he takes a step back

But as I said at the beginning of it all I don't think it's a bad deal. Just a gamble is all. Not a terrible one either.
7 sept. 2022 à 22 h 21
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Quoting: BCAPP
Sure but none of those guys were anywhere near the percent needed to be an 8 figure deal that you predicted.

I just think the risk benefit is larger than needed. I think there is a very real chance he gets like 24 g and 60 pts. Then this is a pretty rich deal. Let alone if he takes a step back

But as I said at the beginning of it all I don't think it's a bad deal. Just a gamble is all. Not a terrible one either.


Yes... Kopitar. And Kane's is right on the edge of what would be a 10 figure deal and he only signed a 5 year deal. That is assuming a 1m cap increase and I'm willing to bet the cap goes up at least 2m next season.
7 sept. 2022 à 22 h 32
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Im curious how many games the 'No's' have watched Stutzle play, he is absolutely dynamic and will for the first time in his career be playing a full season at his primary position center and have actual top tier linemates with Debrincat and Giroux. He will have an exceptional year this year, get ready for 80+ points while growing tremendously in the faceoff circle learning from G. I am PUMPED. Lock up Zub for at least 5 years and this if the Best Offseason in Sens History!
7 sept. 2022 à 22 h 43
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Svechnikov: 8 x $7.75 million...97% say good deal
Connor: 7 x $7.14 million...95% say good deal
Kucherov: 8 x $9.5 million...93% say good deal
M. Tkachuk: 8 x $9.5 million...86% say good deal
Seguin: 8 x $9.85 million...85% say good deal
Nugent-Hopkins: 8 x $5.13 million...85% say good deal
McDavid: 8 x $12.5 million...81% say good deal
Duchene: 7 x $8.0 million...78% say good deal
Fiala: 7 x $7.88 million...75% say good deal
Eriksson Ek: 8 x $5.25 million...71% say good deal
Suzuki: 8 x $7.88 million...70% say good deal
Eichel: 8 x $10.0 million...70% say good deal
Tavares: 7 x $11.0 million...68% say good deal
Norris: 8 x $7.95 million...65% say good deal
Draisaitl: 8 x $8.5 million...63% say good deal
Stone: 8 x $9.5 million...63% say good deal
Stützle: 8 x $8.35 million...62% say good deal
Hischier: 7 x $7.25 million...59% say good deal
Johansen: 8 x $8.0 million...59% say good deal
Keller: 8 x $7.15 million...58% say good deal
Lee: 7 x $7.0 million...58% say good deal
Thomas: 8 x $8.13 million...51% say good deal
Hughes: 8 x $8.00 million...49% say good deal
B. Tkachuk: 7 x $8.21 million...39% say good deal
Kuznetsov: 8 x $7.8 million...39% say good deal
Tage: 7 x $7.14 million...34% say good deal
Hertl: 8 x $8.14 million...26% say good deal


Explain that pattern to me


The pattern I see is teams are trying to start locking up talent long term early earlier, less bridges.

Year signed and position would be important columns to add to this. I would prefer a 1-5 rating on the deal (but thats a capfriendly issue) and also users should need to select their favourite team to see if there is a Leafs factor in some deals when they start looking at their overpays that have caused them to lose players and become less competitive year after year.

Another add could be the contracts being rated each year, people are rating this contact, but it only comes into play next year. The contract is going to look like the 6.5 mill Karlsson Contract in time.
7 sept. 2022 à 23 h 17
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Modifié 7 sept. 2022 à 23 h 32
Quoting: yikes
Oh and Alfie is 100% getting involved in this situation. He alone would cause at least a couple dozen or more families buying seasons tickets.

His era of the Sens is an all time classic. Not on the same parameters of the greatest teams of all time, but on a pure entertainment level.


And I would hate (will hate) to see the big negative backlash and effect on the team when either/both players involved in the World Juniors gang rape case become news again for that. It isn't the Senators fault; but they have 2 out 3 of the "final guys" and that is basically a ticking time bomb for the organization. The players deserve any negativity if they did in fact commit those crimes; I'm not saying that; but the Senators hopes and dreams include Batherson and Formenton; without them this isn't a playoff contender roster and the blowback could have a very chilling effect on the entire team.

It's kind of like the Evander Kane situation: everyone is supposed to just keep trucking along and pretend it's not an issue...until it is. We aren't stupid and the NHL surely can be involved with Hockey Canada and any other investigator to learn the truth in real time and act swiftly. But in the meantime it feels... dirty, I guess to "cheer" for them.
yikes a aimé ceci.
7 sept. 2022 à 23 h 31
#98
sen krak fan
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Quoting: FanOfAllTeams
Time for you to love the Erik Karlsson trade for 8 more years (Stutzle and Norris)


Oh yeah!!!!!!
7 sept. 2022 à 23 h 46
#99
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Wow, 8.35 million for a player who has played 132 games and has 87 total points. Also, is a -45. Great move Sens! You ever heard of a bridge deal for two or three years to see if he gets better? Of course you don't, you gave Norris almost 8 million per for his 90 total points in 125 games! At least he's only a -17.
CSStrowbridge a aimé ceci.
8 sept. 2022 à 0 h 53
#100
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Rejoint: juill. 2022
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A simple message to the idiots that voted no, an offer sheet at this price costs a team a 1 First Round Pick, 1 Second Round Pick and a 1 Third Round Pick. Every Team in the League would LOVE to grab a player like Jimmy at this price. After the Bedard Lottery Offer Sheets would have been Plenty!
 
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