Forums/Armchair-GM

SETH JONES IS NOT A BAD CONTRACT

Créé par: Garak
Date de création initiale: 25 août 2022
Publié: 25 août 2022
Équipe: 2022-23 Blackhawks de Chicago
Description
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Jones is still a bonified top pairing RHD. His cap hit might be a little higher than it should be, but it's not outrageous. The problem with Jones is that CHI gave up WAAAAAY too much in the trade and a rebuilding team really has no use for a player like him during a rebuild other than to help them hit the cap floor.

One more thing I just looked into and did the math on is that his contract is HEAVILY front loaded and the back half of his contract largely comes from signing bonuses, which ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE CALCULATION OF BUYOUT cost!!! EDIT: If his contract is bought out with four years left, the buyout cost will only be $866K for 8 years. The cap hit savings will still be high for a few years, but by then the ceiling will be significantly higher anyway.

That is the cost of a mid level prospect, and might even be right near the league minimum salary by that point. At that point he will be 31 years old, he will still be a player in the NHL for a while beyond that. So that barely factors into anything. Also, by then the cap ceiling will have gone up substantially, according to NHL execs. At which point, his contract will be more than palatable to any team in the league for a top 4 defenseman.
Transactions
CHI
  1. Choix de 2023 ronde en 4e (NYI)
NYI
  1. Athanasiou, Andreas
Rachats de contrats
  • Brett Connolly: 1 166 667 $
  • Henrik Borgström: 83 334 $
  • Boris Katchouk: 135 416 $
Frais appliqués
  • Duncan Keith: 5 538 462 $
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGE1E RONDE2E RONDE3E RONDE4E RONDE5E RONDE6E RONDE7E RONDE
2023
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Logo de TBL
Logo de CHI
Logo de TBL
Logo de CHI
Logo de DAL
Logo de CHI
Logo de NYI
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
2024
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Logo de TBL
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
Logo de OTT
Logo de CHI
Logo de CGY
Logo de CHI
Logo de CHI
2025
Logo de CHI
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2282 500 000 $71 344 712 $237 500 $1 275 000 $11 155 288 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Reichel, Lukas
925 000 $
AG, C
RFA - 2
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Toews, Jonathan
10 500 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Kane, Patrick
10 500 000 $
AD
NMC
UFA - 1
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Domi, Max
3 000 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Johnson, Tyler
5 000 000 $
AD, C, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Raddysh, Taylor
758 333 $
AD
RFA - 2
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Kurashev, Philipp
750 000 $
AG, C, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Lafferty, Sam
1 150 000 $
AD, C, AG
UFA - 2
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Blackwell, Colin
1 200 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 2
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Hardman, Mike
800 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 2
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Khaira, Jujhar
975 000 $
AG, C
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Entwistle, Mackenzie
800 000 $
AG, C
RFA - 2
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Johnson, Reese
800 000 $
AD, C
RFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
McCabe, Jake
4 000 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Jones, Seth
9 500 000 $
DD
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Mrázek, Petr
3 800 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Johnson, Jack
950 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Murphy, Connor
4 400 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Stalock, Alex
750 000 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Jones, Caleb
1 350 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Mitchell, Ian
925 000 $
DD
RFA - 1
Logo de Blackhawks de Chicago
Stillman, Riley
1 350 000 $
DG
RFA - 2

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25 août 2022 à 12 h 48
#1
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Go to Seth Jones, buyout contract and change the year to 2026. See what the cap charges for his buyout are.

Or I can save you the time/trouble: 7.375, 7.875, 7.875, 7.875 and 4 years of .875...
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25 août 2022 à 12 h 52
#2
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Seth Jones is probably paid close to double his worth and the contract extends to his mid 30s. It’s a bad deal. Good player, but bad deal. No team will give up assets for it
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25 août 2022 à 12 h 54
#3
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Quoting: Riley816
Go to Seth Jones, buyout contract and change the year to 2026. See what the cap charges for his buyout are.

Or I can save you the time/trouble: 7.375, 7.875, 7.875, 7.875 and 4 years of .875...


Yeah. You're right. What I calculated in my head was the buyout cost and not the actual cap hit. But still, his cap hit will be more than palatable by then and he will still be playing good hockey at 31 years old. So, buying out his contract at that point isn't even necessarily relevant.
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25 août 2022 à 12 h 57
#4
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Solid player, bad contract
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25 août 2022 à 12 h 57
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Quoting: Garak
Yeah. You're right. What I calculated in my head was the buyout cost and not the actual cap hit. But still, his cap hit will be more than palatable by then and he will still be playing good hockey at 31 years old. So, buying out his contract at that point isn't even necessarily relevant.


He's not worth his contract in the slightest
25 août 2022 à 13 h 0
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Quoting: The_Rocket
Seth Jones is probably paid close to double his worth and the contract extends to his mid 30s. It’s a bad deal. Good player, but bad deal. No team will give up assets for it


He is not paid double his worth. Arguably one or two million over, but not double. On an awful 21-22 CHI team, when you look at his advanced metrics, he was still a clear cut #1 dman. Put him on a cup contender and everyone would be singing his praises. The problem is less about the contract and more about what Bowman gave up and that he threw a HUGE wrench in the rebuild, and put together an awful roster that was supposed to be a playoff team. None of which is Jones fault.
25 août 2022 à 13 h 2
#7
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Let’s go Seth Jones at 9.5 million till he’s 35
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 3
#8
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Quoting: Garak
He is not paid double his worth. Arguably one or two million over, but not double. On an awful 21-22 CHI team, when you look at his advanced metrics, he was still a clear cut #1 dman. Put him on a cup contender and everyone would be singing his praises. The problem is less about the contract and more about what Bowman gave up and that he threw a HUGE wrench in the rebuild, and put together an awful roster that was supposed to be a playoff team. None of which is Jones fault.


Honestly I’ve seen Canucks fans defend the OEL contract so don’t take this too hard. The part of me that roots for Chaos wants to see an OEL/Myers for Jones^2 trade.
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 10
#9
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Quoting: Isles5513
Honestly I’ve seen Canucks fans defend the OEL contract so don’t take this too hard. The part of me that roots for Chaos wants to see an OEL/Myers for Jones^2 trade.


Seth Jones is just not a guy I’d want because at his age, a long term contract, which he’d get, takes him to a pretty old age. And he’s looked upon as a number #1 dman in this nhl market by the GMs. The thing is he’s going to be payed like a #1 dman but his game is not very complete so it would be hard to be a great team with so much money locked up into a guy who won’t lead the defense too well.
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 11
#10
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Quoting: Isles5513
Honestly I’ve seen Canucks fans defend the OEL contract so don’t take this too hard. The part of me that roots for Chaos wants to see an OEL/Myers for Jones^2 trade.


Haha. For sure. I'm not taking it hard. I just figured the subject was worth posting about after you and I were talking about it. Honestly, like I was saying earlier, CHI is going to have trouble hitting the cap floor in the coming years, and his contract will help us do that. Otherwise, what is done is done.
25 août 2022 à 13 h 22
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Quoting: cMac73
Seth Jones is just not a guy I’d want because at his age, a long term contract, which he’d get, takes him to a pretty old age. And he’s looked upon as a number #1 dman in this nhl market by the GMs. The thing is he’s going to be payed like a #1 dman but his game is not very complete so it would be hard to be a great team with so much money locked up into a guy who won’t lead the defense too well.


He is definitely more geared toward offense, but that isn't to say he lacks an NHL caliber defensive game. You want to look at Plus/Minus and make a determination, go ahead. But advanced stats say otherwise. He didn't have a proper partner all season and was relied upon too heavily because the rest of the D group couldn't hack it or was hurt, he played behind a forward group that mostly had no defensive game, he entered a controversy ridden organization with an awful coach who made them play an awful system and schemes, and he played in front of pretty awful goal tending in the second half after Fleury was traded.
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 26
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You're right it isnt bad, its terrible
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 26
#13
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Seth Jones is not a bad contract, no. But it's not necessarily a good contract, and (somewhat depressingly) it's probably going to be the thing that keeps Stan Bowman from getting another GM job (instead of the more obvious reasons).

That being said, the last 4x$9.5M of it will only cost the Hawks $8M/$7.5M/$7.5M/$7.5M. A lot of contracts signed in 2020/2021 were more backloaded as a concession to the lower revenues during the pandemic, and paying the majority up top is something that will make it easier for Chicago to move on from the deal if they want to.
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 27
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Quoting: The_Rocket
Seth Jones is probably paid close to double his worth and the contract extends to his mid 30s. It’s a bad deal. Good player, but bad deal. No team will give up assets for it


That's just a crazy take. He is like 1M to 500k overpaid at most.
If he had gone to Dallas last year (the runner up in the Jones sweepstakes) and they made the 1st/2nd round then this whole talk about how good he is would never exist. Jones was actually very good defensively this year but his offense very much fell in line with the rest of Chicago as a team
Screen-Shot-2022-04-25-at-9.13.31-AM.3bd9a619.png
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 30
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Here's a theoretical: If Seth Jones went on the LTIR and was expected to never play a game again, would he have more or less value? That kind of cap relief could really help a playoff team out, probably more than if he was on the books, right?
25 août 2022 à 13 h 31
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Seth Jones is not a bad contract, no. But it's not necessarily a good contract, and (somewhat depressingly) it's probably going to be the thing that keeps Stan Bowman from getting another GM job (instead of the more obvious reasons).

That being said, the last 4x$9.5M of it will only cost the Hawks $8M/$7.5M/$7.5M/$7.5M. A lot of contracts signed in 2020/2021 were more backloaded as a concession to the lower revenues during the pandemic, and paying the majority up top is something that will make it easier for Chicago to move on from the deal if they want to.


Yeah. I'm not saying it's a good contract. Not many contracts in the league can be considered "really good". But it is not as bad as everyone makes it seem, and he is not the awful player everyone assumes he is. His contract is just fine. He just makes no sense for a rebuilding CHI team outside of hitting the cap floor, and we gave up too much for him. But this new coaching staff could possibly make him look really good come this time next year or the following year. I'm sure as the team improves, everyone will see how good he is. One player can only do so much.
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 33
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Its a bad contract. He should not be payed the same as McAvoy and Fox, and more than Hedman, Makar, Hughes etc
25 août 2022 à 13 h 34
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Quoting: QualityTrades1
Here's a theoretical: If Seth Jones went on the LTIR and was expected to never play a game again, would he have more or less value? That kind of cap relief could really help a playoff team out, probably more than if he was on the books, right?


If CHI can get him a decent partner after this tanking season and we get some decent goaltending and the team starts to trend upward, I could see his value rising within the next couple years. But as it stands right now, yeah he might be worth more in that scenario, if you ask most people here on ACGM. But I think real GM's know his worth and what he can do for a team.
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 34
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Quoting: Isles5513
Honestly I’ve seen Canucks fans defend the OEL contract so don’t take this too hard. The part of me that roots for Chaos wants to see an OEL/Myers for Jones^2 trade.


I dont think anybody is saying OEL has a bad contract. Its like Jones. Ok player, awful contract
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 35
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Quoting: Juiceman
Its a bad contract. He should not be payed the same as McAvoy and Fox, and more than Hedman, Makar, Hughes etc


The thing is, those players are underpaid, not the other way around. And over the next handful of years, that will become more apparent.
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 38
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Quoting: Juiceman
I dont think anybody is saying OEL has a bad contract. Its like Jones. Ok player, awful contract


I feel like people downplay the years aspect of OEL. Either way I want my chaos OEL/Myers for Jones^2 deal lol
25 août 2022 à 13 h 38
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Quoting: Isles5513
I feel like people downplay the years aspect of OEL. Either way I want my chaos OEL/Myers for Jones^2 deal lol


Rather have OEL and Myers tbh. Less years left
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 39
#23
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Seth Jones is not a bad contract, no. But it's not necessarily a good contract, and (somewhat depressingly) it's probably going to be the thing that keeps Stan Bowman from getting another GM job (instead of the more obvious reasons).

That being said, the last 4x$9.5M of it will only cost the Hawks $8M/$7.5M/$7.5M/$7.5M. A lot of contracts signed in 2020/2021 were more backloaded as a concession to the lower revenues during the pandemic, and paying the majority up top is something that will make it easier for Chicago to move on from the deal if they want to.


I'm not depressed about that. Bowman was not a great GM. He road the waves created by his predecessor and the coat tails of his dad. I'm not gonna say everything he did was bad. But a lot of what he did was not good. And he allowed what happened to Kyle Beach to be swept under the rug. He does not deserve to ever work in the NHL again managing the lives and careers of young kids. They deserve better than that. Same goes for Quennville.
25 août 2022 à 13 h 40
#24
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Quoting: Juiceman
Rather have OEL and Myers tbh. Less years left


Agreed. But I’m rooting for chaos lol.
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25 août 2022 à 13 h 50
#25
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Quoting: Garak
I'm not depressed about that. Bowman was not a great GM. He road the waves created by his predecessor and the coat tails of his dad. I'm not gonna say everything he did was bad. But a lot of what he did was not good. And he allowed what happened to Kyle Beach to be swept under the rug. He does not deserve to ever work in the NHL again managing the lives and careers of young kids. They deserve better than that. Same goes for Quennville.


I worded it oddly - I was saying that the depressing thing is stuff like the Seth Jones contract is what will keep him from getting another job, as opposed to the Kyle Beach scandal - I mean, Joel Quenneville's name was getting bandied about as a coaching candidate -this summer- because bygummit, he knows how to win! And if Bowman had built a team that succeeded after he stepped down, I'm sure we'd be a year or so away from him getting a job from a desperate team.

So maybe another point for the Seth Jones contract being good?
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