Tampa declines. Colton will likely be extended and if not, Tampa can get a better return than that.

Not nearly enough for Colton, So Tampa passes. he'll be a UFA in 2 years than he can sign with the Devils. Until then he's staying put with Tampa.

TB easily passes and just because he said it'd be cool to play for his hometown team :
A) doesn't mean it's an immediate concern.
B) doesn't mean TB is gonna take pennies on the dollar.

TB isn't giving up Ross Colton for essentially free.

I feel like Devil fans are taking his comments too strongly. What is he supposed to say when asked a question like that? He's being nice saying how his family is there and all that, but TB is under no obligation to move him to us to make him happy. They will want young cheap prospects that will help them win still as they have to start really cutting because of their cap state. A player that may not be an NHL player this year and that elusive 3rd rounder kicker does not fit the bill. If anything, I imagine it takes a cheap LHD like Bahl to replace Ian Cole, and Foote to add in the mix. I wouldn't give up any more than that. If TB fans want to hold out for a 1st or whatever, sure, but I do think two players that could be cheap and start in the NHL next year would be what helps them more.

I do feel that Bratt will get a bit more than $7m off next season, maybe $7.5, but that's minor.

Sharangovich on the other hand needs a FULL season where he is on (I get players have games off, but he was not great to start the year) to earn that contract.

One last thing, without a huge season this year, I see no reason that Pasta takes his chance on us unless we blow him out of the water, and $9.5 doesn't do that.

Appreciate you trying to project the roster for 25-26.
Signing Pastrnak and trading for Colton are reasonable moves
But if I may, I see a few issues here:

1. I do not think that the cap will have risen by 12.5m in three seasons.
The cap will increase by 1m for 23-24 and no more than an additional 2m for 24-25, meaning you'd have to rely on a third year cap increase of 9.5m.
I know that 25-26 is the first year we can expect pre pandemic cap increases, but 9.5m in one go is not a reasonable assumption.
Between the last lockout and the pandemic, the cap rose by an average of 4.6% each year (iirc).
Allowing for a generous 5% increase from a hypothetical 24-25 cap at 85m, would take the 25-26 cap to 89.3m.

2. Between Zetterlund, Blackwood and Bratt, I think you're around 2.5m short on their AAVs you gave them.
But for the purposes of this exercise, that extra 2.5m hit are nullified by the dead cap that's present here but will be gone from the books by 25-26.

3. Still, that leaves only 7m to sign Mercer and Holtz for 25-26, but also Gritsyuk who I expect to be on this team by 23-24 and also will be through his ELC come 25-26.
My best guess for their next contracts are:
Mercer - 5.3m
Holtz - 6m
Gritsyuk - 4m
In order to have a chance to make that work, you'd need to dump one of Palat or Hamilton without any cap coming back.
Might be easier said than done.

Thank you for coming to my TedTalk.

You forgot to mention the offer for Colton gets Fitzgerald hung up on.

Colton could still be traded to the Devils with some prospect or a 2nd rd pick being swapped out for McLeod, nevermind the possibility of the Devils just signing him in FA 2024 or 2025.
Thought that was obvious to anyone checking this AGM out, guess not.

Stamkos said basically the same thing about Toronto and where did he sign for less than he could have signed for in Toronto? Could he leave if he gets UFA? Sure however, I believe he gets locked up.

Tampa will likely extend him at some point this season, but if they were going to trade him to N.J., another thread that had Colton for Sharangovich would be fairly even. If it was for picks/prospects, guys like Bahl, Walsh, Foote, Zetterlund would probably be players Tampa would look to choose from. Tampa does have 2-3 decent RD prospects coming along, so hard to say whether they'd be more interested in the big LD Bahl or the more offensive minded Walsh(of course whether N.J. would move either). Foote fills a bigger positional need down the line at LW, but Zetterlund may be more desirable as he's much closer to being a contributor for Tampa this season from what I can tell. I don't see Colton getting moved ultimately, but there could be a fit with the Devils.

No a 2nd round pick isn't getting him