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Playoff Dark Horse Teams

Who will be the Dark Horse this year to make the playoffs?
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15 août 2022 à 9 h 47
#1
Banni
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There's generally one team that sneaks in that nobody really expected. Which one out of those teams makes it?

I didn't realize you can't do more than three. I had also added Buffalo and NJD
15 août 2022 à 9 h 57
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I feel like the Devils are the closest to making the jump as a contending roster.

Assuming "health" across the board for all teams.

Hughes progression along with the depth of their forward group, defensive pairs are stronger, and their goaltending looks more NHL average than in the past.

Detroit has made improvements but still has a very thin roster.

Ottawa's defense is still too suspect for me.

But then I look at the path to the playoffs and feel like Ottawa has a much easier division since the "4th" team (Boston) is a wounded duck for a few months and they have Detroit, Buffalo, and Montreal) to leapfrog; while Jersey has a slog in the Metro plus an energized Columbus roster to battle with.
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15 août 2022 à 10 h 27
#3
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Quoting: HockeyScotty
I feel like the Devils are the closest to making the jump as a contending roster.

Assuming "health" across the board for all teams.

Hughes progression along with the depth of their forward group, defensive pairs are stronger, and their goaltending looks more NHL average than in the past.

Detroit has made improvements but still has a very thin roster.

Ottawa's defense is still too suspect for me.

But then I look at the path to the playoffs and feel like Ottawa has a much easier division since the "4th" team (Boston) is a wounded duck for a few months and they have Detroit, Buffalo, and Montreal) to leapfrog; while Jersey has a slog in the Metro plus an energized Columbus roster to battle with.


Agreed pretty much on everything. The reason I think DET and OTT have a path is more to do with their division than anything. NJD definitely looks like they SHOULD have a playoff caliber lineup, but the Metro is still pretty tight. I think WSH securing better goaltending locks them in, CAR obviously is making it and barring health I think the Pens are pretty much in. It's hard to say if NYI will all of a sudden come in to play, but I think NJD, DET and OTT could all be vying for the final spot.
15 août 2022 à 10 h 34
#4
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I doubt any of them get in but I went with Ottawa. Detroit will be better long term but not next year. Seattle will probably make a push but Matty B and Wright have a lot of growing to do still. If Grubauer returns to what he once was they will make it close
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15 août 2022 à 10 h 38
#5
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Quoting: edeangel84
I doubt any of them get in but I went with Ottawa. Detroit will be better long term but not next year. Seattle will probably make a push but Matty B and Wright have a lot of growing to do still. If Grubauer returns to what he once was they will make it close


Yeah, lots of what-ifs, but I agree. SEA's defense isn't stellar, but it should be good enough if goaltending holds. I think Beniers takes a big step this year and their other additions were really good. Plus they'll have Tanev back. While they may not wind up having any forwards in the top ten, they could very well wind up having one of the deeper forward groups in the league.
15 août 2022 à 10 h 40
#6
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no reason why ottawa should miss this year. even detroit should make the playoffs.
15 août 2022 à 10 h 41
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
no reason why ottawa should miss this year. even detroit should make the playoffs.


A lot hinges on Boston and I know they'll think I'm trolling, but TOR as well. It's easy to say TOR is a shoe-in, but they downgraded their goaltending, so IMO while it's pretty likely they make it, I don't think it will be comfortably a lock.
15 août 2022 à 10 h 52
#8
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
no reason why ottawa should miss this year. even detroit should make the playoffs.


Who is not making it in the east that did last year? And if any of them do not get in why are the Sens or Wings better than the Isles?
15 août 2022 à 10 h 58
#9
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Quoting: edeangel84
Who is not making it in the east that did last year? And if any of them do not get in why are the Sens or Wings better than the Isles?


The Isles are such a weird team to gauge. On paper, they're a playoff team. Sorokin is top-five goalie in the league. They have some good dmen. They obviously have some quality forwards. If they sign Kadri, how much does that change things?

If the Isles are a similar team to last year? Then yes, I think OTT and DET will be better.
15 août 2022 à 11 h 13
#10
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
The Isles are such a weird team to gauge. On paper, they're a playoff team. Sorokin is top-five goalie in the league. They have some good dmen. They obviously have some quality forwards. If they sign Kadri, how much does that change things?

If the Isles are a similar team to last year? Then yes, I think OTT and DET will be better.


I’m assuming they will sign Kadri but even if they don’t I don’t agree Ottawa and Detroit are better. As you said Sorokin is one of the best and significantly better than the goalie tandems Ottawa and Detroit have. That alone is a major factor. A team just won the cup with mediocre goaltending but that was the exception not the rule. The Avs had basically a perfect team as far as forward and Dman go because I’ve never seen a team manage the cap like Colorado did. There’s no way a team should be able to pay Mackinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Kadri, Landeskog, Nichhuskin, Lehtoken, Toews, Burakovsky, and Manson. Basically Mackinnon being the most underpaid player in the league not on an ELC win them that cup.

What I’m saying is goaltending wins. It’s why Tampa has been dominating. It’s why the Rangers are ahead of schedule and it’s why the Isles absolutely can be a playoff team with a little luck on their side. Also, let’s not forget they had a horrendous start last year and had like the longest road game streak in modern history before that arena opened. It was a weird season for them
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15 août 2022 à 11 h 16
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New Jersey or Seattle is that team imo, out of the options you listed, Grubauer should bounce back, adding Bjorkstrand should help them greatly, NJ just seems like this could be the year they start to be a contender
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15 août 2022 à 11 h 18
#12
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Quoting: edeangel84
I’m assuming they will sign Kadri but even if they don’t I don’t agree Ottawa and Detroit are better. As you said Sorokin is one of the best and significantly better than the goalie tandems Ottawa and Detroit have. That alone is a major factor. A team just won the cup with mediocre goaltending but that was the exception not the rule. The Avs had basically a perfect team as far as forward and Dman go because I’ve never seen a team manage the cap like Colorado did. There’s no way a team should be able to pay Mackinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Kadri, Landeskog, Nichhuskin, Lehtoken, Toews, Burakovsky, and Manson. Basically Mackinnon being the most underpaid player in the league not on an ELC win them that cup.

What I’m saying is goaltending wins. It’s why Tampa has been dominating. It’s why the Rangers are ahead of schedule and it’s why the Isles absolutely can be a playoff team with a little luck on their side. Also, let’s not forget they had a horrendous start last year and had like the longest road game streak in modern history before that arena opened. It was a weird season for them


All good points. There's definitely a lot more what-ifs this season than in the past. Teams that are aging out, like the Pens, Caps and Bruins are finding ways to remain in the mix which is holding back the teams on the rise. The bottom has to drop out soon, but I don't know if it's or even next year.
15 août 2022 à 11 h 19
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
New Jersey or Seattle is that team imo, out of the options you listed, Grubauer should bounce back, adding Bjorkstrand should help them greatly, NJ just seems like this could be the year they start to be a contender


Lets not forget SEA also added Burakovsky and they'll get Tanev back from a season-ending injury. NJ should be fighting for the final spot.
15 août 2022 à 11 h 24
#14
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
All good points. There's definitely a lot more what-ifs this season than in the past. Teams that are aging out, like the Pens, Caps and Bruins are finding ways to remain in the mix which is holding back the teams on the rise. The bottom has to drop out soon, but I don't know if it's or even next year.


You identified the right teams to drop off and I’d add in Florida but that probably won’t be until 24-25. We should be a playoff team again and I say that as someone who has criticized our front office a lot this summer. If we miss the playoffs after resigning our older core and making significant trades (albeit ones I don’t like) then the Pens will be done for and this era of Penguins hockey will be at a close… but with Letang and Geno on long term deals. That’s a huge risk.

I think the Caps are in worse shape than even we are long term. Backstrom is into serious health problems and they have a lot of money tied up in some guys who simply aren’t worth it like Mantha and to some degree even Oshie. I think if one of the three misses this year it’ll be them. Boston is in deep crap once Bergeron finally retires.
15 août 2022 à 11 h 25
#15
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
Lets not forget SEA also added Burakovsky and they'll get Tanev back from a season-ending injury. NJ should be fighting for the final spot.


I don’t understand the NJ hype I see on capfriendly. According to this site they should be an elite team the way people talk about their players. I think they had a disappointing offseason after missing out on Johnny Hockey.
15 août 2022 à 11 h 38
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Quoting: edeangel84
I don’t understand the NJ hype I see on capfriendly. According to this site they should be an elite team the way people talk about their players. I think they had a disappointing offseason after missing out on Johnny Hockey.


NJ, before this off-season, was well on their way up the ladder based on what they had. Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Sharangovich, Hamilton, Severson, Graves, etc... Most of their issues were more based on a guys just needing more experience. This season they'll be healthier (remember Hughes missed half the season) and they added Palat and Marino. That's pretty significant IMO. Their goaltending is what will make or break them IMO. Blackwood has promise and this is probably a make or break season for him.
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15 août 2022 à 12 h 0
#17
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Quoting: edeangel84
I don’t understand the NJ hype I see on capfriendly. According to this site they should be an elite team the way people talk about their players. I think they had a disappointing offseason after missing out on Johnny Hockey.


Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
NJ, before this off-season, was well on their way up the ladder based on what they had. Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Sharangovich, Hamilton, Severson, Graves, etc... Most of their issues were more based on a guys just needing more experience. This season they'll be healthier (remember Hughes missed half the season) and they added Palat and Marino. That's pretty significant IMO. Their goaltending is what will make or break them IMO. Blackwood has promise and this is probably a make or break season for him.


Devils where relying on their 5th, 6th and 7th string goalies for a significant portion of the season.
Got a whole 10 games from Bernier before his injury, Blackwood played with a busted heel for a 3rd of his games also.
With average goaltending, the Devils would have prevented 55-60 additional goals, which should have made them a 90 point team instead of a 60 point team.
That coupled with Hughes and Hamilton (who was nowhere near alright when he returned), Wood missing the entire year, being forced to dress Mason Geertsen for 25 games all meant that a disaster was inevitable.
Not many teams could've remained competitive under such circumstances.

Palat is a good add to the top six and Tatar should have a better season than last.
Marino likely a significant improvement on Ty Smith who had a disastrous sophomore year.
Okhotiuk, Bahl and Walsh all looking to develop past and beat Brendan Smith out for the 3LHD spot ensures depth at D.
Mercer, Hughes, Zetterlund, Hischier, Bratt and Sharangovich with one more year of development under their belts.
Impactful performances from rookies such as Holtz is on the cards, with Nemec and Luke Hughes also coming in for a 9 game stint in April.
There's no reason to believe such bad luck will strike the Devils a second year in a row, particularly with the goaltenders.

Capitals and Penguins and Isles getting older and core players further away from their prime years, Boston having their best Forward and Defender out for a significant portion of the season, Toronto possibly getting even worse in net and Shesterkin cannot possibly carry the Rangers as hard as he did last season means that there will be more wins to be had against the perceived top teams in the conference.
None of them became better on paper compared to last season.

...and even then I'm 60% certain the Devils still end up missing the playoffs in 22-23, albeit rather narrowly.
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15 août 2022 à 12 h 17
#18
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Banni
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Quoting: Tintin
Devils where relying on their 5th, 6th and 7th string goalies for a significant portion of the season.
Got a whole 10 games from Bernier before his injury, Blackwood played with a busted heel for a 3rd of his games also.
With average goaltending, the Devils would have prevented 55-60 additional goals, which should have made them a 90 point team instead of a 60 point team.
That coupled with Hughes and Hamilton (who was nowhere near alright when he returned), Wood missing the entire year, being forced to dress Mason Geertsen for 25 games all meant that a disaster was inevitable.
Not many teams could've remained competitive under such circumstances.

Palat is a good add to the top six and Tatar should have a better season than last.
Marino likely a significant improvement on Ty Smith who had a disastrous sophomore year.
Okhotiuk, Bahl and Walsh all looking to develop past and beat Brendan Smith out for the LHD spot ensures depth at D.
Mercer, Hughes, Zetterlund, Hischier, Bratt and Sharangovich with one more year of development under their belts.
Impactful performances from rookies such as Holtz is on the cards, with Nemec and Luke Hughes also coming in for a 9 game stint in April.
There's no reason to believe such bad luck will strike the Devils a second year in a row, particularly with the goaltenders.

Capitals and Penguins and Isles getting older and core players further away from their prime years, Boston having their best Forward and Defender out for a significant portion of the season, Toronto possibly getting even worse in net and Shesterkin cannot possibly carry the Rangers as hard as he did last season means that there will be more wins to be had against the perceived top teams in the conference.
None of them became better on paper compared to last season.

...and even then I'm 60% certain the Devils still end up missing the playoffs in 22-23, albeit rather narrowly.


Health permitting, this is Blackwood's year to prove he's their goalie or they need to go shopping.

The Caps, while losing Backstrom, did an impressive job of signing Strome who I think grossly underrated. He's not Backstrom, but he will do a solid job and they REALLY upgraded their goaltending, so I think they will have a solid season. While the Pens and Caps are getting older, I think the Caps crap out before the Pens do, but if NJD misses it won't be by much. This will probably be the last year they miss if they do miss.
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15 août 2022 à 12 h 24
#19
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I want to be biased and say NJ but I think they make it in 2023-24 with L Hughes, Nemec, Etc making the team whole teams like Pittsburgh, Washington regress
15 août 2022 à 12 h 35
#20
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Banni
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Quoting: Devil
I want to be biased and say NJ but I think they make it in 2023-24 with L Hughes, Nemec, Etc making the team whole teams like Pittsburgh, Washington regress


I'm probably being biased, but I don't think the Pens are going regress as soon as everyone hopes. They're financially in great position after this season to keep injecting solid players to surround Sid and Geno with to keep this going. There's a strong likelihood that the Pens will be big players for JT Miller. I think WSH has another two seasons (including this one) before they hit the wall. That said, I think you're right, and the 23/24 season will be their major push. CAR, PIT, WSH, NYR and NJD will likely be the top five.

The Rangers are a team that could be in bigger trouble before the Caps and Pens. I'm not saying that to troll, but while their defense and goaltending will be stellar, they're going to have a lot of trouble filling out their forward group. If Laf doesn't pan out and Kakko stays the course, there's not a ton of firepower outside of Panarin, Zib and Krieder. Their financial position is not good.
15 août 2022 à 12 h 44
#21
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
NJ, before this off-season, was well on their way up the ladder based on what they had. Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Sharangovich, Hamilton, Severson, Graves, etc... Most of their issues were more based on a guys just needing more experience. This season they'll be healthier (remember Hughes missed half the season) and they added Palat and Marino. That's pretty significant IMO. Their goaltending is what will make or break them IMO. Blackwood has promise and this is probably a make or break season for him.


Hughes did miss half the season, and that’s been his story since he’s been in the league. That kid has accumulated a lot of injuries for as young as he is
15 août 2022 à 12 h 46
#22
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Banni
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Quoting: edeangel84
Hughes did miss half the season, and that’s been his story since he’s been in the league. That kid has accumulated a lot of injuries for as young as he is


He played a full, albeit shortened season, the year before last. I'm going to wait a little bit before labeling an injury case. Regardless, the Devils have a lot of weapons now. It will come down to their goaltending IMO.
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15 août 2022 à 13 h 18
#23
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
He played a full, albeit shortened season, the year before last. I'm going to wait a little bit before labeling an injury case. Regardless, the Devils have a lot of weapons now. It will come down to their goaltending IMO.


And that’s why I still think the NYI and Jackets finish above them… the goaltending is a big gap. Also can we give some respect to what the Jackets are doing? I like their core of youngsters probably as much as NJ’s. Sillinger already looks like a 1C and Kent Johnson really is an interesting kid to watch with his skill set. Then you add in the young blueliners they have with Jiricek, Mateychuk, Corson Cuelemans, and Boqvist already locked up to a good cap hit. And the goaltending is definitely better than NJ. Basically they have as bright a future IMO.

Also, if we look at the Atlantic Detroit and Buffalo are stocking up. Buffalo really should have went for a goalie this offseason because they have everything else. And Detroit is as impressive a core of young players as there is in the league plus they are sitting on some really high end goalie prospects.

Oh and everyone in the east has something to look forward to except Philly and that’s just funny.
15 août 2022 à 13 h 56
#24
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Quoting: edeangel84
And that’s why I still think the NYI and Jackets finish above them… the goaltending is a big gap. Also can we give some respect to what the Jackets are doing? I like their core of youngsters probably as much as NJ’s. Sillinger already looks like a 1C and Kent Johnson really is an interesting kid to watch with his skill set. Then you add in the young blueliners they have with Jiricek, Mateychuk, Corson Cuelemans, and Boqvist already locked up to a good cap hit. And the goaltending is definitely better than NJ. Basically they have as bright a future IMO.

Also, if we look at the Atlantic Detroit and Buffalo are stocking up. Buffalo really should have went for a goalie this offseason because they have everything else. And Detroit is as impressive a core of young players as there is in the league plus they are sitting on some really high end goalie prospects.

Oh and everyone in the east has something to look forward to except Philly and that’s just funny.


I don't know about CBJ. I don't really get what they're doing. I feel like they're doing what Philly is doing and making decisions with no real rhyme or reason. Their goaltending is abysmal IMO and I actually thik they finish close to last in the metro.

I can't get a read on NYI. They shouldn't be taken lightly until they should be lol.
15 août 2022 à 14 h 39
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Just because NJ makes the jump to being a playoff contender does not make them "elite". This thread is just about the best of the "worst to first" candidates. The Islanders, Bruins, and Capitals all look vulnerable based on last year, the off season, or upcoming injuries so its only natural to see who might step up.

Yes Jersey is more likely to be a serious contender in 2 years but I think they take a couple big steps this year to be knocking on that door.

Seattle has to battle Vancouver, Dallas, and Winnipeg for the final playoff spot in the west. So they might have an easier path than the Eastern teams but they also have not improved their defense over last year in any way. They might make games more competitive but unless Beniers breaks out in a truly huge way they just lack any difference makers on their roster.
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