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Analytics are ruining your brains

13 août 2022 à 18 h 12
#1
NoMoreJustin
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I swear most of the people here have either never played hockey or just don’t have a lot of experience watching the game because of being new to it or just being young.

If you want to rely solely on these fancy charts and numbers to rate a player you’re going to look foolish. Why would a smart team like the Rangers keep someone like Reaves if he’s so bad according to your analytics people on random corners of the internet? I’m making a team of guys I’d love to have on my Oilers come playoff time and I don’t care what they’re analytics say.
13 août 2022 à 18 h 16
#2
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I got some bad news for you when you look the majority % of these players and see their value in their underlying numbers
13 août 2022 à 18 h 18
#3
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Because the Rangers aren't a smart team and they think Reaves brings something other than penalty minutes
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13 août 2022 à 18 h 21
#4
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Ranger's liking Reaves has nothing to do with his ability to play hockey.
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13 août 2022 à 18 h 30
#5
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I couldn’t agree more. Analytics can be useful but that is one of a few sources of information you should be using to evaluate a player. The problem is, people use only that to form their opinion. When you can say nothing about the player other than look at their advanced stats, you really have no opinion about the player at all. There is zero context provided with these advanced stats. Analytics don’t tell you how fast McDavid is, how amazing Matthews shot is or how big of hits Seider throws. I hate that this has become a problem in the hockey world.
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13 août 2022 à 18 h 33
#6
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Decent post IMO. Players who play the Reaves style of game are not analytics darlings, but they bring an element to the game that analytics doesn't INTENSITY watching Reaves or anyone who plays his style of game brings you to the edge of your seat waiting for the next big hit or scrap. Also, his charismatic nature brings an element of unity to the team. This comment does not mean analytics doesn't mean anything, but for players like Reaves they do not play for the analytics.
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13 août 2022 à 18 h 34
#7
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Calm down Larry
13 août 2022 à 18 h 36
#8
Banni
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How bout you pick 20 players at random and see where their value is compared to advanced stats. Sure reaves is a bad player but so is Jordan martinook. Why are both players on their respective playoff caliber teams despite being the worst analytically? They supply things that can’t be measured by analytics. How is analytics supposed to account for being a locker room guy or a physical presence on the ice? It’s not supposed to, that’s why humans make the decisions and not computers. Analytics are a tool to use and a tool that successful teams have been using as of late. John Chaykas yotes are a common argument against analytics. Based on analytics, he made moves that made zero sense with advanced stats. There are tools to determining a players value and the modern game relies on analytics as one of the main ones. Ryan reeves sucks analytically, that is fact. Would I want him on my team for the playoffs? I guess but I wouldn’t want him on the ice unless it’s against other grinders and I would rather have a guy like puljujarvi for that run. Analytics and the eye test are the main tools used in the modern game and the most successful teams use analytics now. It’s a tool used for determining value. Most people use Jfreshs or Doms models as their main arguments but really there are so many other ways to determine things. Teams have their own models and we don’t know those models but what we do know is that analytics help determine a players value but is not an exact indicator. If you want to stay in the past you can but the wave is to use analytics to help determine value. Not all of the value, but help determine value.
13 août 2022 à 18 h 46
#9
Banni
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Quoting: HiddenValley
I couldn’t agree more. Analytics can be useful but that is one of a few sources of information you should be using to evaluate a player. The problem is, people use only that to form their opinion. When you can say nothing about the player other than look at their advanced stats, you really have no opinion about the player at all. There is zero context provided with these advanced stats. Analytics don’t tell you how fast McDavid is, how amazing Matthews shot is or how big of hits Seider throws. I hate that this has become a problem in the hockey world.


I agree with you on how analytics don’t determine that, but I am saying analytics should be a tool used to determine a players worth. If you can use analytics as a tool, like what most staff in the NHL do, you form opinions based on a multitude of factors. Using different models, plus the eye test, plus whatever else you do to determine the value, you form a well developed opinion on everything. Models aren’t perfect for sure but they’re a tool to use. I like them but I also like the eye test but when I determine value, I would say it’s a healthy combination between the two. I can’t speak for others and there are definitely analytical kids who just say number number number but the eye test is crucial. Patrik laine is a solid example of analytics vs eye test. Laine had abysmal advanced stats in terms of EVo and EVd but his total stats come out to middle of the pack. Now is laine worth a middle of the pack asking price? HELL NO. He is worth PLD+ and that was when his value was down. PLD was in the 90% when traded while laine was in the 60s. Eye test is a key factor in developing an opinion so I use it with mine. It’s much easier to look at a graph than watch 15 minutes of a players film so that’s why so many do that now. Shame but it needs a happy medium.
13 août 2022 à 19 h 25
#10
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: pretzelcoatl
Because the Rangers aren't a smart team and they think Reaves brings something other than penalty minutes


Something tells me Chris Drury knows more about hockey than whatever analytics person you use
13 août 2022 à 19 h 27
#11
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: MellowK
Ranger's liking Reaves has nothing to do with his ability to play hockey.


“Playing hockey” doesn’t mean any one thing. Connor McDavid and Ryan Reaves both have a role in the NHL, just very different roles
13 août 2022 à 19 h 37
#12
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: Cardiac
I agree with you on how analytics don’t determine that, but I am saying analytics should be a tool used to determine a players worth. If you can use analytics as a tool, like what most staff in the NHL do, you form opinions based on a multitude of factors. Using different models, plus the eye test, plus whatever else you do to determine the value, you form a well developed opinion on everything. Models aren’t perfect for sure but they’re a tool to use. I like them but I also like the eye test but when I determine value, I would say it’s a healthy combination between the two. I can’t speak for others and there are definitely analytical kids who just say number number number but the eye test is crucial. Patrik laine is a solid example of analytics vs eye test. Laine had abysmal advanced stats in terms of EVo and EVd but his total stats come out to middle of the pack. Now is laine worth a middle of the pack asking price? HELL NO. He is worth PLD+ and that was when his value was down. PLD was in the 90% when traded while laine was in the 60s. Eye test is a key factor in developing an opinion so I use it with mine. It’s much easier to look at a graph than watch 15 minutes of a players film so that’s why so many do that now. Shame but it needs a happy medium.


Watching 15 minutes of film on a player will tell you more than any chart can. Now the average person doesn’t have the time to do it so these new charts have become the way for the fans to debate who is good or who isn’t any good. We’ve been having that debate long before the analytics crowd existed. It’s nothing new for fans to argue. What I can’t stand though is random fan x who’s never played a single game will tell a fan who has played the game that this chart is the one and only way to determine if someone is good or valuable in some way. I had someone here explaining to me why the Oilers just can’t trade Warren Foegele because he’s an analytics darling apparently. I wouldn’t want to trade him if he was paid a million less but the results of the cap make him a must trade player. The naysayers will say just trade Barrie instead. The problem is what Barrie brings is harder to find than what Foegele brings. We can sign a UFA at a million or so bucks to do Foegele’s job. What’s left to replace Barrie is a downgrade but again these fans say we must overpay a winger because apparently he’s an analytic darling
13 août 2022 à 19 h 45
#13
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
Something tells me Chris Drury knows more about hockey than whatever analytics person you use


Appeal to authority fallacy
13 août 2022 à 19 h 46
#14
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: pretzelcoatl
Appeal to authority fallacy


Appeal to common sense buddy
13 août 2022 à 19 h 48
#15
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
Appeal to common sense buddy


Oh my bad, appeal to authority fallacy and argument from incredulity fallacy
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13 août 2022 à 19 h 51
#16
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: pretzelcoatl
Oh my bad, appeal to authority fallacy and argument from incredulity fallacy


I’m sure someone needs a Philosopher somewhere. Let’s stick with hockey though because this isn’t PhilosophyFriendly
13 août 2022 à 19 h 55
#17
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
I’m sure someone needs a Philosopher somewhere. Let’s stick with hockey though because this isn’t PhilosophyFriendly


Well that's the ad hominem fallacy and not even a good one because this has nothing to do with philosophy
13 août 2022 à 20 h 22
#18
Banni
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
Watching 15 minutes of film on a player will tell you more than any chart can. Now the average person doesn’t have the time to do it so these new charts have become the way for the fans to debate who is good or who isn’t any good. We’ve been having that debate long before the analytics crowd existed. It’s nothing new for fans to argue. What I can’t stand though is random fan x who’s never played a single game will tell a fan who has played the game that this chart is the one and only way to determine if someone is good or valuable in some way. I had someone here explaining to me why the Oilers just can’t trade Warren Foegele because he’s an analytics darling apparently. I wouldn’t want to trade him if he was paid a million less but the results of the cap make him a must trade player. The naysayers will say just trade Barrie instead. The problem is what Barrie brings is harder to find than what Foegele brings. We can sign a UFA at a million or so bucks to do Foegele’s job. What’s left to replace Barrie is a downgrade but again these fans say we must overpay a winger because apparently he’s an analytic darling


It’s obviously too much to do as teams employ people to scout NHL games to watch targets. Imo analytics aren’t perfect but watching a lot of hockey also isn’t perfect too. It’s impractical mostly but watching a lot of games myself, 2 a day during the regular season, and up to 4 on the weekends, I would say I can determine solid opinions on players. I do watch more hockey than the average fan but I do believe my opinion is solid. Not to mention I consume hockey media from other sources too. A solid analysis is the hockey guy on YouTube as he doesn’t really use advanced stats that much. Graphs are the quickest way but imo it’s gotta be a split between the eye test and the analytics. Hard to see a true happy medium now but I believe there are ways of getting the eye test and the analytics without giving up hours of your day to develop those opinions.
13 août 2022 à 20 h 48
#19
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: Cardiac
It’s obviously too much to do as teams employ people to scout NHL games to watch targets. Imo analytics aren’t perfect but watching a lot of hockey also isn’t perfect too. It’s impractical mostly but watching a lot of games myself, 2 a day during the regular season, and up to 4 on the weekends, I would say I can determine solid opinions on players. I do watch more hockey than the average fan but I do believe my opinion is solid. Not to mention I consume hockey media from other sources too. A solid analysis is the hockey guy on YouTube as he doesn’t really use advanced stats that much. Graphs are the quickest way but imo it’s gotta be a split between the eye test and the analytics. Hard to see a true happy medium now but I believe there are ways of getting the eye test and the analytics without giving up hours of your day to develop those opinions.


I’m retired so now I have plenty of time to watch hockey again but when I was working full time I obviously didn’t have time to watch a lot of it, so I understand the appeal of having some charts that someone can easily click on.

I played in the Alberta Junior Hockey League and for a rather short bit of time in the WCHL, the former name of the current WHL. To give you an idea of how old I am I played against Darryl and Duane Sutter in the AJHL. The other NHL guy I faced was Kelly Kisio but I’m not sure how well known he is now a days. I’m going to trust my own eyes even if they’re ageing over a chart someone on the internet came up with, especially if I’m watching defenceman. Sometimes though I’ll get a number mixed up. I did it a couple times with the WJC this week. We’ve always had stats and we’ve always used them. I guess I’m just shocked by how quickly these analytics are taking over and how they’re all I see young people in particular pointing to.
13 août 2022 à 21 h 14
#20
Banni
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
I’m retired so now I have plenty of time to watch hockey again but when I was working full time I obviously didn’t have time to watch a lot of it, so I understand the appeal of having some charts that someone can easily click on.

I played in the Alberta Junior Hockey League and for a rather short bit of time in the WCHL, the former name of the current WHL. To give you an idea of how old I am I played against Darryl and Duane Sutter in the AJHL. The other NHL guy I faced was Kelly Kisio but I’m not sure how well known he is now a days. I’m going to trust my own eyes even if they’re ageing over a chart someone on the internet came up with, especially if I’m watching defenceman. Sometimes though I’ll get a number mixed up. I did it a couple times with the WJC this week. We’ve always had stats and we’ve always used them. I guess I’m just shocked by how quickly these analytics are taking over and how they’re all I see young people in particular pointing to.


Tbh I don’t have much hockey experience. I played but never competitively. Definitely wasn’t playing in a league with future NHLers that for sure. Mind you if I was miles on miles better, I would have only been draft eligible this year. I want to turn my love for the sport into a profession for sure but watching and studying the game seriously for a few years now, I would say I have been able to develop and form solid and knowledgeable opinions on hockey. I am more of a fan than I was ever a player but despite that, I have grown knowledge on many facets of the game. I know what you want to see and what you don’t want to see in a player when you watch them and scout them and that’s why I have formed many opinions on prospects and players. Analytics don’t account for everything but when I form my opinions, I use both the eye test and analytics. As I said previously, puljujarvi I would want on my team over reaves for a playoff run. From what I have seen from puljujarvi, is he an offensive black hole. He is an analytical darling but he has had the opportunity to play with two of the best players in the world and hasn’t performed himself. Analytically he makes his teammates better but watching him, it doesn’t look like it as he is as he messes up so many good opportunities. His defense is solid imo but not as good as analytics make it out to be. A fully formed opinion on puljujarvi is that he has the tools to be a great 2 way winger but as of now, he hasn’t put it all together yet. I would trade at most a 2nd round pick for him as a low risk high reward trade. Ken holland likely didn’t receive a better option than a 2nd which is why puljujarvi hasn’t been traded yet. Holland knows his upside based on analytics and sees the flashes in his game so therefore won’t trade him because it would objectively be selling low on him. This should be his make or break year as he could either be a legit 2 way 70 point player playing on mcdavid or drais wing, or could be a third line defensive forward who scores 40 points which is good for defensive forwards on the third line. Hard to tell right now but imo at his age, he is worth a solid bet despite not playing super well last year.
13 août 2022 à 21 h 18
#21
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hockey analytics are based entirely off having the puck and shooting the puck. feel like that's the end goal of hockey, to shoot the puck at the net and score a goal.
14 août 2022 à 13 h 56
#22
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: Cardiac
Tbh I don’t have much hockey experience. I played but never competitively. Definitely wasn’t playing in a league with future NHLers that for sure. Mind you if I was miles on miles better, I would have only been draft eligible this year. I want to turn my love for the sport into a profession for sure but watching and studying the game seriously for a few years now, I would say I have been able to develop and form solid and knowledgeable opinions on hockey. I am more of a fan than I was ever a player but despite that, I have grown knowledge on many facets of the game. I know what you want to see and what you don’t want to see in a player when you watch them and scout them and that’s why I have formed many opinions on prospects and players. Analytics don’t account for everything but when I form my opinions, I use both the eye test and analytics. As I said previously, puljujarvi I would want on my team over reaves for a playoff run. From what I have seen from puljujarvi, is he an offensive black hole. He is an analytical darling but he has had the opportunity to play with two of the best players in the world and hasn’t performed himself. Analytically he makes his teammates better but watching him, it doesn’t look like it as he is as he messes up so many good opportunities. His defense is solid imo but not as good as analytics make it out to be. A fully formed opinion on puljujarvi is that he has the tools to be a great 2 way winger but as of now, he hasn’t put it all together yet. I would trade at most a 2nd round pick for him as a low risk high reward trade. Ken holland likely didn’t receive a better option than a 2nd which is why puljujarvi hasn’t been traded yet. Holland knows his upside based on analytics and sees the flashes in his game so therefore won’t trade him because it would objectively be selling low on him. This should be his make or break year as he could either be a legit 2 way 70 point player playing on mcdavid or drais wing, or could be a third line defensive forward who scores 40 points which is good for defensive forwards on the third line. Hard to tell right now but imo at his age, he is worth a solid bet despite not playing super well last year.


I’ll tell you why JP wasn’t traded, a second round pick doesn’t help us win a Stanley Cup this year or the following year. JP is basically what you described and I was perfectly fine with moving him if there was a good offer but I’m going to assume there wasn’t. I’d rather see him this year on the ice for the Oilers than see him shipped away for a 2nd.
14 août 2022 à 13 h 57
#23
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NoMoreJustin
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Quoting: mondo
hockey analytics are based entirely off having the puck and shooting the puck. feel like that's the end goal of hockey, to shoot the puck at the net and score a goal.


And to prevent the other team from scoring! Analytics can’t explain why Ryan Reaves has a job in the NHL. There’s a reason for that, because a chart can’t show what he brings to a team.
15 août 2022 à 9 h 36
#24
Banni
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Quoting: HiddenValley
I couldn’t agree more. Analytics can be useful but that is one of a few sources of information you should be using to evaluate a player. The problem is, people use only that to form their opinion. When you can say nothing about the player other than look at their advanced stats, you really have no opinion about the player at all. There is zero context provided with these advanced stats. Analytics don’t tell you how fast McDavid is, how amazing Matthews shot is or how big of hits Seider throws. I hate that this has become a problem in the hockey world.


There's multiple pieces of the puzzle when evaluating players and analytics are one. Nobody should rely solely on them. The issue with the eye test is there as far too much bias on viewer and not always just on watching their own team. Watching teams or players you don't like provides too much bias at time. Fans of every team has their whipping boy(s), so all they do is focus in on that one player's mistakes rather than their successes.

I think analytics helps shine a light, but you also have to look at different ones. WAR cards are nice, but they're flawed. Your general analytics you get off sites like NST are also very good, but also flawed. I think you start with the eye test then move on down to the rest. Starting with and/or solely relying on advanced analytics just isn't accurate.
15 août 2022 à 11 h 27
#25
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Modifié 15 août 2022 à 11 h 50
Hockey analysis has come a long way compared to just 5 years ago. The data is better, more research is done, people are understanding how to contextualize better, and we have more now to consume than ever. If you think about it, the on-ice ideas that are emphasized by those in the analytics sphere are essentially the same as what old heads have been preaching for decades.

Getting pucks on net = increasing your shot attempts
Get to the dangerous areas = improving your shot quality, which ties into expected goals
Net-front battles = prevent the opposition from taking those high xG shots and prevent your goalie from being screened
Creating/preventing odd-man rushes = rush chances are shown to be of higher quality than chances created on the cycle or forecheck
...and so on and so forth.

I guarantee you that 90-95% of the findings from analytics spheres align with the general consensus. The problem most people have are with the edge cases, which they then use to dismiss the entirety of analytics. The on-ice arguements are essentially the same, albeit the wordings differ. Most everyone will agree that today's game is far different than the game from even a decade ago. It's a possession-based game, physicality is emphasized less, etc.

A lot of the polarization comes from how off-ice/locker room effects come into play. It's pretty clear that guys like Ryan Reaves are not valuable to the modern game, in terms of on-ice impact; he plays very limited minutes and the team does not control play when he is on the ice. The arguments for Reaves state that he provides a morale boost to his teammates, he's a locker room guy, etc. The problem with that is how can we even know that's the case when we're not around the team and we don't know what's going on behind the scenes, other than the canned statements we hear in interviews? I'm sure that most, if not all, teams have guys that are good in the room, so as long as there aren't guys that are a detriment to team morale, I don't see the value in having a guy that also plays poorly on the ice.
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