Forums/Armchair-GM

Who are these three equal to in terms of value

Créé par: Cardiac
Date de création initiale: 6 août 2022
Publié: 6 août 2022
Équipe: 2022-23 Stars de Dallas
Explications
In my opinion, stankoven, bourque, and Johnston are three of the most valuable prospects in the NHL. All are in my top 30 prospects and are all elite center prospects. The only sets of three prospects who I believe are more valuable are

Power-quinn-peterka
Hughes-nemec-holtz
Rossi-wallstedt-yurov
Jiricek-Johnson-mateychuk

With all three of the stars prospects being centers, it is very plausible that somebody may be moved. I do believe stankoven would be a good winger at the NHL level but he is the guy I see transitioning into the wing the best. Not to mention after these three, the center depth in the stars organization is insane. Dellandrea stranges and damiani could all make an impact at the NHL level. Dellandrea, the 2018 13th OA pick has been slower in development but I believe he is still a solid middle 6 option. Damiani is one season removed from being the AHL rookie of the year and while his production regressed, if he is able to bounce back, he also has legit potential. Antonio Stranges is the human highlight reel. He has a unique skating style and his edge work is unmatched at the CHL level. He also has an above average shot that would translate to the NHL. The main problem with Stranges is the lack of diversity in his game. He is relatively one dimensional and I don’t think that is necessarily a bad thing at the moment. If he develops other aspects to his games in the AHL this coming season, I wouldn’t be surprised if he make a serious NHL jump in the 2023-2024 season.

Now that I have established the depth of the stars pool at center, let’s do a dive into the three main prospects in question.

Stankoven-
Selected 47th overall in 2021, I see stankoven being the next alex debrincat. Both are undersized pure goal scorers who were easily a first round talents yet fell in the draft based on their size. Stankoven lead the WHL in PPG with 45 goals and 104 points in 59 games. Stankoven was over .75 GPG in his D+1 year. A large reason why he fell off like a lot of other CHL players did in the 2021 draft was due to limited play. That combined with size left stankoven as a mid second round pick and a pick that is shaping out to be a steal. Stankoven has the potential to be a 40 goal scorer in the NHL and with the talent in the stars system, he will definitely be a commodity in the NHL.


Bourque-
The QMJHL leader in PPG with 2.1 PPG. Mind you he only played 29 games but he was on a torrid pace when he was playing. I think if he were to play more than half the season, his PPG would have been under 2 but still in the high 1s. The only thing that limits bourque to this position is the lack of games played. The 2020 30th overall pick is a major boom or bust prospect. I am leaning much more towards boom as he makes his teammates better. It can be seen in Xavier bourgault. Bourgaults production when he was away from bourque was much less than when he was with him and seeing that contrast is why I believe he is looking like a major steal.

Johnston-
Johnston was one of the biggest wildcards from the 2021 draft. Johnston did not play a single OHL game in his draft year and at the U18s he was given a checking role and still managed to score 4 points in those 7 games. He was ranked in the mid to late second round and was seen as a major reach when he was selected 23rd overall in the 2021 draft. I was shocked with the pick and honestly saw this as a pick that was not that great and saw it as a major reach and was confused that the stars would leave talent like stankoven and raty on the board. In his D+1 year, Johnston went off. 46 goals and 124 points in 68 games. This kind of point production was only beaten by one other player in the CHL this past year. His future teammate, maverick bourque. With Johnston playing over double the games bourque played, it is much more consistent and has less of a chance of being a fluke. The OHL MVP has not said where he intends on playing this coming season but he has a very good chance of being a full time NHLer this upcoming year. No matter what Johnston does this upcoming year, stars fans have a lot to look forward to with Johnston bourque and stankoven all in the prospect pipeline and all being top 30 prospects.

————————————————————————

Personally I see each of these players being enough to fetch legit NHL talent as is. My dilemma comes with how much they’re worth as a package. I genuinely believe those three could be the foundation of a trade for a guy like matthews. If Matthew’s definitely won’t resign in Toronto and asks to leave, these three could get him and possibly more. I know leaf’s fans would get their knickers in a twist but for 2 seasons of Matthew’s, these three are more than enough in return. Obviously I am going to get **** on for suggesting this but it is an overpay imo. With the upside of all three and all three possibly making the NHL next year, they could help the leafs on a rebuild post Matthew’s era. But hey, let the leafs fans be mad stars fans, these are 3 of my favorite prospects and three of the most valuable prospects in the NHL. If you were to take the worst of these three, whoever you think it is, they would still be the best prospect on over half the teams in the NHL.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
Robertson, Jason76 969 420 $
Oettinger, Jake76 969 420 $
Transactions
1.
DAL
  1. Matthews, Auston
Détails additionnels:
Do me a favor and read the description before you say anything.
TOR
  1. Bourque, Mavrik
  2. Stankoven, Logan
  3. Johnston, Wyatt
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2023
Logo de DAL
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Logo de DAL
Logo de DAL
2024
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Logo de DAL
Logo de DAL
Logo de DAL
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2025
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2282 500 000 $81 259 923 $675 000 $1 007 500 $1 240 077 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de DAL
Robertson, Jason
6 969 420 $
AG, AD
RFA
Logo de TOR
Matthews, Auston
11 640 250 $
C
UFA - 2
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Pavelski, Joe
5 500 000 $
AD, C
NMC
UFA - 1
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Hintz, Roope
3 150 000 $
C, AG
RFA - 1
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Seguin, Tyler
9 850 000 $
C, AD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo de DAL
Gurianov, Denis
2 900 000 $
AD, AG
RFA - 1
Logo de DAL
Marchment, Mason
4 500 000 $
AG, AD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo de DAL
Faksa, Radek
3 250 000 $
C
NTC
UFA - 3
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Kiviranta, Joel
1 050 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
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Peterson, Jacob
842 500 $
AG, C
RFA - 1
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Kero, Tanner
750 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
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Glendening, Luke
1 500 000 $
C, AD, AG
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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Lindell, Esa
5 800 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 3
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Heiskanen, Miro
8 450 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 7
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Oettinger, Jake
6 969 420 $
G
RFA - 3
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Harley, Thomas
863 333 $
DG
RFA - 2
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Miller, Colin
1 850 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
Logo de DAL
Wedgewood, Scott
1 000 000 $
G
UFA - 2
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Hanley, Joel
750 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
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Hakanpää, Jani
1 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de DAL
Studenic, Marian
750 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
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Suter, Ryan
3 650 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 3
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Olofsson, Fredrik
750 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
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Benn, Jamie
9 500 000 $
AG, C
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo de DAL
Khudobin, Anton
3 333 333 $
G
UFA - 1

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6 août à 23 h 32
#1
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Yes they are good prospects but thats ridiculous
6 août à 23 h 33
#2
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Banni
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Quoting: UpsideDownQue
Yes they are good prospects but thats ridiculous


Read the description. See the situation. Come back after.
6 août à 23 h 34
#3
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Quoting: Cardiac
Read the description. See the situation. Come back after.


I read everything and agree up until the point where you suggest Auston Matthews, the 2nd best centre in the world, is worth 3 unknowns
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6 août à 23 h 35
#4
Chad of Chads
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Modifié 6 août à 23 h 44
Quoting: UpsideDownQue
I read everything and agree up until the point where you suggest Auston Matthews, the 2nd best centre in the world, is worth 3 unknowns


Was a little confused with your first post but this cleared it

Agreed Matthews (if he is traded) is probs gonna get the biggest haul in NHL history

Lets say it was Dallas it would probs be those 3 and more

As in reality Leafs dont really have to trade him as what if in his final year they go all in despite what he said and win the cup. As when you got a guy like Matthews you go in to compete every single year even if there is a chance he goes.

Now as for who those 3 could get well it really depends on what the other team wants or if they are willing to give up their star.
6 août à 23 h 37
#5
DrLewisForPM
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The value is there but Toronto will want to resign Matthews and should do so
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6 août à 23 h 39
#6
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
The value is there but Toronto will want to resign Matthews and should do so


I honestly feel Matthews extends but its not gonna be what people expect

What I mean by that is I dont see an 8 year deal as apparently its been reported Matthews hates long term deals and honestly there is a good argument for and against this position

And if we think about it if he signs a 5 year deal he will be 31 at the end of it and can sign one more huge deal

Like 13 x 5yrs then after that 18 x 5 years can maximize his earnings better than a 15 x 8
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6 août à 23 h 43
#7
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Quoting: UpsideDownQue
I read everything and agree up until the point where you suggest Auston Matthews, the 2nd best centre in the world, is worth 3 unknowns


The situation is similar to the PLD situation and the suggested packages for him. PLD alone is easily worth suzuki. Are habs fans giving up suzuki for him? Nope. Why? Because he wants out. This is a situation where Matthew’s says he wants out. Dallas calls up and offers 3 top 30 prospects who would be 1-2-3 in the leafs system. I am not saying they are worth matthews as of now, but rather they are worth matthews in a situation similar to the PLD one. You get two years of the player guaranteed and then a massive chance they walk. This is the same situation as hughes being more valuable than matthews in terms of trade value. You may call it preposterous but if you ask any fan on the street what they would rather have, matthews for two years or hughes for 8, they would almost always choose hughes, despite him being worse than matthews. Matthews’ trade value isn’t as high as his value to the team based on the term of his contract and assuming he wants out, that value decreases even more.
6 août à 23 h 45
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Quoting: aadoyle
I honestly feel Matthews extends but its not gonna be what people expect

What I mean by that is I dont see an 8 year deal as apparently its been reported Matthews hates long term deals and honestly there is a good argument for and against this position

And if we think about it if he signs a 5 year deal he will be 31 at the end of it and can sign one more huge deal

Like 13 x 5yrs then after that 18 x 5 years can maximize his earnings better than a 15 x 8


I think if he was trying to maximize his earnings, he would be going in 4 year increments rather than 5. I know it’s knit picking but if he took a 4 year deal after his ELC, he would likely be making more next season than he is currently. It may be knit picking but it is what I would do.
6 août à 23 h 48
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Quoting: LloydminsterLarry
The value is there but Toronto will want to resign Matthews and should do so


I definitely agree with you here. This is just if Matthew’s says he won’t resign and requests a trade. It’s obviously not in torontos best interest to lose matthews but it’s even less in their interest to lose him for nothing. I would like to see him walk because I want to watch the world burn but realistically, it would be karma for Tavares and what he did to the islanders.
6 août à 23 h 50
#10
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Hmm how about about no
6 août à 23 h 55
#11
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Now, I don't think the Matthews is resigning with the Leafs, but the Leafs are in a win mode, and that package doesn't do for the Leafs. It's kinda of CF fascination that all UFAs have a to be traded....or they walk for nothing. There are about 100 upcoming UFAs, they don't get traded. Heck one year of JTMiller, seems to get as much in so many CF posts .
Don't see how it cap compliant with the hope that Benn and Suter are on lifelong LTIR.
t
7 août à 0 h 3
#12
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Quoting: palhal
Now, I don't think the Matthews is resigning with the Leafs, but the Leafs are in a win mode, and that package doesn't do for the Leafs. Heck one year of JTMiller, seems to get as much in so many CF posts .
Don't see how it cap compliant with the hope that Benn and Suter are on lifelong LTIR.
t


These are just concepts. I believe as a whole, these three would easily surpass the value of 2 years of matthews. I know the leafs are in win now mode, but this is more to prove what I think a good return would be for these 3. There really isn’t any player U25 who has 2-4 years on their contract worth these 3 imo other than a deflated matthews. Even with guys guys from the 2017 draft are either not good enough or locked down too long. 2018 is a mid year and the only players I think even have a shot of being worth all three are svech and dahlin and even at that, I don’t think either is valuable enough for all 3. 2019 only has hughes there and he is too valuable. And everything after that is something that normally doesn’t happen because teams don’t swap prospects. Maybe could fetch holtz and nemec but that is more unrealistic than anything else suggested so far. I get it doesn’t do much more the leafs but this wasn’t really a thing for practicality but more so just to assess their value as a group. Heck I signed robertson and otter to matching $6,969,420 contracts. This isn’t supposed to make sense in terms of the team but more so just show what I believe is a general sense for their value.
7 août à 0 h 3
#13
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Quoting: Nathaniel
Hmm how about about no


Somebody didn’t read the description wink
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7 août à 0 h 4
#14
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All three guys had solid seasons, but keep in mind (1) that they all have yet to play professionally; (2) they put up great numbers against teenagers; (3) the CHL recent track record with their scoring leaders is mixed, at best, at that ability translating in NHL.
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7 août à 0 h 29
#15
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Zach L'Heureux had a nice year in Halifax, Luke Evangelista had an eye-popping year in London, and Yaroslav Askarov is as highly touted a prospect as Jesper Wallstedt.
7 août à 1 h 44
#16
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Quoting: Cardiac
Somebody didn’t read the description wink


Oh no, I did read it, this is just straight up stupid. Should Colorado trade Mack for something like this because his contract is ending??
7 août à 1 h 55
#17
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
All three guys had solid seasons, but keep in mind (1) that they all have yet to play professionally; (2) they put up great numbers against teenagers; (3) the CHL recent track record with their scoring leaders is mixed, at best, at that ability translating in NHL.


I agree there but these 3 were far and away the best CHL players as D+1 players and bourque was D+2 but put up the best numbers per game. If we look at a random year, I’ll choose 2015 because I like that year, the leader in PPG from the OHL who was in their D+1 year was Robby fabbri. The leader in PPG from the WHL who was in their D+1 year was Brayden point. The leader from the QMJHL who was in their D+2 year was Ivan barbashev. Mind you bourque averaged half a point more per game than barbashev, johnston averaged about .1 more than fabbri had, and stankoven had .3 more PPG than point did. As you said prospect development is all over the place but all three are currently NHLers and producing at different levels. Even at that though, the WHL has been the best at producing NHL talent imo based on the leaders of D+1 players. Here are every leader in PPG from the WHL for their D+1 year from the last 10 years.

Brendan leipsic 1.8 PPG
Nic petan 1.8 PPG
Point 1.4 PPG
Barzal 1.5 PPG
Sam steel 1.98 PPG
Aleksi heponiemi 2.1 PPG
Ty smith (d man) 1.2 PPG
Dylan cozens 1.7 PPG
Jake neighbors (Covid year but he played well nonetheless) 1.7 PPG
Logan stankoven 1.75 PPG

Obviously very hit or miss but imo we have to compare the situations as well and not just the numbers. Leipsic petan and Ty rattie was the best line in the CHL when it was doing its thing. Each player fed off of each other and are all fringe NHL talents now but because they gelled well together and were all fringe NHL talents, they did their thing. Point had one teammate who was on his line who produced close to him and that player was two years older and produced less than point. Barzal produced 18 points higher than his closest teammate and that teammate was a mid round pick who is currently playing in allsvensken. Steel had eye popping numbers but his next closest teammate was a D+3 player who produced one point less than him. Steel is an okay NHLer but not what he was projected to be after that season. Heponeimi wasn’t even the leader on his team in points and had 2 other players older than him cross the 100 point plateau. Ty smith was a d man and isn’t really too comparable to the others on this list. That being said he was second on his team in points and was easily the best player on his team. Cozens was 17 points ahead of his next closest teammate and has been a good NHLer so far. Neighbors was on pace to beat his next closest teammate by over 30 points in a full season but it was a covid shortened season so take it with a grain of salt. Finally stankoven, he was 40 points higher than his next closest teammate.

Now if we look for a pattern here, the best players at the NHL level and the real stars were far and away the best player on their team and lead their team in points by a large margin. The 4 busts out of the 7 (neighbors, stank, and cozens we can’t count as busts of stars yet), all were not far and away the best player on their respective teams and were apart of super lines which consisted of fringe NHLers but because there was 2-3 of them on those lines, they were able to outperform their competition and destroyed the score sheet. We can do this for johnston and bourque as well and the short of it is, bourque outperformed his closest teammate by an estimated 30 points adjusted for a full season. Johnston outperformed his closest teammate by 40 points as well. Johnston and stankoven I am much higher on than I am on bourque. That being said, the same trend still exists with D+2 players as well.

QMJHL D+2 PPG leaders

Dimitri jaskin- 1.95 PPG- 17 points over the next best teammate
Anthony mantha- 2.1PPG- on pace for 40 points over next best teammate
Ivan barbashev- 1.67 PPG- 2nd best player on team behind Conor garland
Conor garland- 2.1 PPG- just under a whole PPG better than the next best player
Daniel sprong- 1.9 PPG- on pace for 20 points more than next closest teammate
Vitaly abramov- 1.95 PPG- on pace for 25 more points than next closest teammate
Max comtois- 1.9 PPG- .2 PPG more than next closest player
Alex kovanaugh- 1.9 PPG- .4 PPG more than next 2 closest (same phenomenon but this time it is with two players putting in work)
Dawson Mercer- 1.6 PPG- .1 more than next closest. I take it with a grain of salt as it was a covid shortened season but it is definitely an outlier as Mercer had a good rookie year in the NHL.
Bourque- 2.1 PPG- .45 higher than next closest. I am high on bourque because his stats are comparable to garland as the difference between 1 and three on bourques team is a whole PPG. Sure he has bourgault on his team but he still manages to be better than him. Bourgault stats were also much worse without bourque.

Johnston was a whole .5 PPG higher than his next closest teammate and as seen in barzal, point, and cozens so far, that produces better players, especially in a D+1 year.

I predict Dylan guenther will be a bust. His numbers with vs without neighbors speaks loudly. He is an 18 year old who i would argue, is carried by neighbors but I could be wrong.

If you look at any given CHL Product who was a star, they produce so much better in their D+1 year than their teammates do. The 2014 Draft class CHLers consisted of guys like Drai, Bennett, point, reinhart, dvorak, domi, bertuzzi, dal colle, ehlers, and virtanen. The two biggest busts of this draft in dal colle and virtanen both were not far and away better than their teammates. It’s not an exact science but those players who are a few steps above their teammates are the ones who wind up being stars.

FINAL POINTS

1) a large gap in point production between 1 and 2 leads to star NHLers
2) johnston, stankoven, and bourque all have a giant gap in their production
3) from any given year, you can predict how good a player will do based on their teammates production compared to said players production.
4) it’s a very good bet on all three of these players to be future stars. I would rank them johnston, stankoven, bourque. All are displaying the signs of being legit NHL stars.
5) given these facts, this is one of the most valuable trios of prospects in the league. Could all walk out as busts but I highly doubt it. Trends would show otherwise.

Finally, if you do take the time to read this, I thank you, if you don’t, I will probably turn it into some form of published media if I refine it lol.
7 août à 2 h 8
#18
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Zach L'Heureux had a nice year in Halifax, Luke Evangelista had an eye-popping year in London, and Yaroslav Askarov is as highly touted a prospect as Jesper Wallstedt.


Agreed that they had good years and I would rate askarov the highest, evangelista isn’t even in my top 100 prospects and Lhereaux is in there but is in the 80s if I recall correctly. ZLR was third on his team in PPG which should be relatively alarming. Evangelista isn’t in my top 100 still but is just on the outside. He was .39 PPG higher than his next closest teammate and i liked his play and his numbers back it up. I did watch a bit of knights footage because I like Stranges and was intrigued by Isaiah george too as a prospect. Also watched mallioux in the games he played because 1) screw that guy and 2) I just wanted to see him fail and knitpick at certain aspects of his game. If you see my last comment, you will see why I would not like ZLH but how I would like evangelista. Hard to tell tbh with evangelista. Could see him play well in the NHL but hard to see what exactly his role would be. I think another season of developing will establish what he could be at the NHL level. Imo I would rank the preds top 3 as Kemell, askarov, evangelista. I don’t think that touches the stars 3 but it is definitely above average.
7 août à 2 h 14
#19
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Quoting: Nathaniel
Oh no, I did read it, this is just straight up stupid. Should Colorado trade Mack for something like this because his contract is ending??


If he says he wouldn’t resign? Yes. As I said, if your star player won’t resign, you should get assets for them. Flames fans were mad that guadreau left for nothing and wish he would have said something so they could’ve gotten better for the future. How often do you see a star player be vocally unhappy with their team request a trade with one year left on their contract? EK65 and stone are great examples of that. Both returns have helped ottawa become what they are today, more so the sharks trade. At the time of the EK65 trade, he was still the best defenseman in the NHL. He wasn’t going to resign with the team and wanted out. In this hypothetical, it’s the same situation of Matthew’s wanting out. Call it dumb, but these three are easily worth 2 years of matthews, if not, more than just 2 years of matthews.
7 août à 3 h 9
#20
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Quoting: Nathaniel
Oh no, I did read it, this is just straight up stupid. Should Colorado trade Mack for something like this because his contract is ending??


Why do people always just to comparing?? There's no question on Mac resigning in Colorado, while there's big speculation Matthews will walk.
7 août à 10 h 49
#21
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I like

Hintz-Johnston-Robertson
Marchie-Segs-Stank
Benn-Bourque-Guri
Petey-Delly-xxxx

Better than the lineup above. I feel like there will be room for all three of them if their talent levels transition well to the NHL. I like what Nill is building, but I do worry he’s looking for a big splash. I have zero interest in Matthews. If he won’t sign in Dallas the rental price would still be too steep. If he would sign in Dallas I feel like the full price would be obscene. Especially when you consider we would have to free up the cap space as well. I do think the 2023 and 2024 first round picks should be available for the right player, but I’d prefer Nill left our strong prospect pool alone
EsoYeezus69 a aimé ceci.
7 août à 12 h 55
#22
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Banni
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Quoting: SlevinKalevra
I like

Hintz-Johnston-Robertson
Marchie-Segs-Stank
Benn-Bourque-Guri
Petey-Delly-xxxx

Better than the lineup above. I feel like there will be room for all three of them if their talent levels transition well to the NHL. I like what Nill is building, but I do worry he’s looking for a big splash. I have zero interest in Matthews. If he won’t sign in Dallas the rental price would still be too steep. If he would sign in Dallas I feel like the full price would be obscene. Especially when you consider we would have to free up the cap space as well. I do think the 2023 and 2024 first round picks should be available for the right player, but I’d prefer Nill left our strong prospect pool alone


I agree there. This isn’t really anything supposed to be realistic but rather just showcase their value. I’d expect johnston and stanks game to translate better than bourques but even then, bourque elevated the play of his teammates so he may wind up being the best.
SlevinKalevra a aimé ceci.
7 août à 13 h 27
#23
RIP Ben Stelter
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Quoting: KooKoo4Kaapo
Why do people always just to comparing?? There's no question on Mac resigning in Colorado, while there's big speculation Matthews will walk.


Anti Toronto bias summed up in one sentence
7 août à 15 h 4
#24
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Quoting: Cardiac
I agree there. This isn’t really anything supposed to be realistic but rather just showcase their value. I’d expect johnston and stanks game to translate better than bourques but even then, bourque elevated the play of his teammates so he may wind up being the best.


I think all three will thrive if played with talented line mates. I’m hopeful as DeBoer seems to understand chemistry and putting players in a position to succeed
7 août à 15 h 14
#25
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Banni
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Quoting: SlevinKalevra
I think all three will thrive if played with talented line mates. I’m hopeful as DeBoer seems to understand chemistry and putting players in a position to succeed


Whole heartedly agree there. Honestly benn I think would be best with bourque, seguin and pavs would be best with johnston, and hintz and robertson would be best with stankoven based on their play styles. Stank has the highest offensive upside so if they want him to succeed, they should play him on the wing with the top guys.
 
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