SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/Montreal Canadiens

What if they start winning

3 août 2022 à 7 h 52
#1
HuGo is a Boss GM
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: déc. 2021
Messages: 6,910
Mentions "j'aime": 3,022
What would you do if the team starts winning and is heading to a playoff hearth? Would you sell high to try and mitigate the damage. Do you run with with it and see what the team can do? Most of us want a top 3 pick in the next draft, and it might happen, but what if it goes the other way because of Dach & Slaf and the MSL effect?
3 août 2022 à 8 h 31
#2
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: nov. 2018
Messages: 15,432
Mentions "j'aime": 6,387
I will start off by saying that the only way this team surprises is IF we can find a top 4 PM RHD. It could be a stop gap guy like Subban or a young unproven guy like Lundkvist but we have to fill that role and shore up the right side before we can consider this team surprising anyone. All that aside, IMO we are a bubble team if everyone is healthy, should we get into a playoff spot comfortably by the TDL, I think you have to run with it. We all saw what Price and Weber were able to do the last time we made it. So if we are in the playoffs comfortably by the deadline there is no turning back just go for it.
jonh514, A_Habs_fan et zk97 a aimé ceci.
3 août 2022 à 9 h 8
#3
Démarrer sujet
HuGo is a Boss GM
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: déc. 2021
Messages: 6,910
Mentions "j'aime": 3,022
Quoting: Campabee
I will start off by saying that the only way this team surprises is IF we can find a top 4 PM RHD. It could be a stop gap guy like Subban or a young unproven guy like Lundkvist but we have to fill that role and shore up the right side before we can consider this team surprising anyone. All that aside, IMO we are a bubble team if everyone is healthy, should we get into a playoff spot comfortably by the TDL, I think you have to run with it. We all saw what Price and Weber were able to do the last time we made it. So if we are in the playoffs comfortably by the deadline there is no turning back just go for it.


I would argue that if any 2 of these players blow our expectations out of the water we will make the playoffs:

Slafkovsky
Dach
Barron
Harris
Guhle
Schueneman
Campabee a aimé ceci.
3 août 2022 à 10 h 13
#4
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juin 2018
Messages: 148
Mentions "j'aime": 61
Very good question.

Am not sure what can be done, but I know it has to be addressed before the season starts and has to come from Gorton.

I don't think that Dach will have that big of an impact, same goes for Slafkovsky (who should play only 9 games).
The MSL effect will be tested against a full season now, we will see, but the honeymoon will end this year.
Like you mentioned in a previous post, our defence is very inexperienced, that should keep things going our way.
And maybe that is the key in this: play a young inexperienced Defence and make your trade-baites in Offence shine. It's the forwards you want to trade away, so go lose 4-3 and 5-4.

If Price is healthy, you might have a conversation with him and tell him that he'll play a maximum of 50 games, with 4 in Laval first.

Hopefully if you start winning it's because of the pieces that you want to trade. And you move them if the price is right.

You might ask for MSL to play the young non-roster guys a certain amount of games. (in the name of assets evaluation)

Maybe if a player that you can't or won't trade gets injured, you keep him off the roster for an extra game or 2 (in the name of his health)

If Price is unhealthy, we will (should) be fine.

But it's a great question.
How do you tank without having it being obvious?
Like I've said before, a 1oa with generational talent is alot of $$$ for an organization. Let's not pretend that $$$ doesn't make the world go round. So there are a few teams that have asked this question.
How do we improve our chances for that player?

I still think we end up with pick #4 to 6
jonh514 a aimé ceci.
3 août 2022 à 10 h 18
#5
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juin 2018
Messages: 148
Mentions "j'aime": 61
Quoting: jonh514
I would argue that if any 2 of these players blow our expectations out of the water we will make the playoffs:

Slafkovsky
Dach
Barron
Harris
Guhle
Schueneman


I have to disagree with you on this.
Our division is strong, the east is stronger in general.
It would need more than any 2 of those players.
jonh514 et A_Habs_fan a aimé ceci.
3 août 2022 à 10 h 25
#6
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juin 2018
Messages: 148
Mentions "j'aime": 61
More on my last point.

We were 53 points out of the playoffs!
We had 55 pts!
And the 3 teams ahead of us that didn't make the playoff got better, more than we did.
Obviously we can't know the impact of all these changes in our division and if Price is at 100% all bets are off but...

Buffalo
Detroit and
Ottawa all improved to a greater extent than us.
3 août 2022 à 11 h 22
#7
Démarrer sujet
HuGo is a Boss GM
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: déc. 2021
Messages: 6,910
Mentions "j'aime": 3,022
Quoting: Nake_qc
I have to disagree with you on this.
Our division is strong, the east is stronger in general.
It would need more than any 2 of those players.


I like when people disagree with me!

To clarify, I am expecting a 35-40 goal pace from Caufield and a 70-80 point pace from Suzuki. I am expecting Matheson, Dvorak, Anderson to do what they do well. I am not expecting much from the rookies, but if Slafkovsky somehow turns into the seconfdcoming of Jagr and puts up 57 points and Guhle puts up 10 goals and 40 points with a great +/- ... our chances of makingthe playoffs go up because an unexpected 30-40 additional goals will win you a lot of games.
3 août 2022 à 11 h 53
#8
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: nov. 2018
Messages: 15,432
Mentions "j'aime": 6,387
Modifié 3 août 2022 à 13 h 13
Quoting: Nake_qc
More on my last point.

We were 53 points out of the playoffs!
We had 55 pts!
And the 3 teams ahead of us that didn't make the playoff got better, more than we did.
Obviously we can't know the impact of all these changes in our division and if Price is at 100% all bets are off but...

Buffalo
Detroit and
Ottawa all improved to a greater extent than us.[
/quote]

I don't think that last statement is necessarily true, I believe on paper they improved more than us over the summer but the real question is how far behind them were we really to begin with? With a healthy roster for even half a season and a better coach with an actual system, we're really a last place team or we're we more of a bubble team and now everyone behind us may have improved but we may also have improved greatly via just having a healthy lineup. So are they further ahead, did they just close the gap or did they just improve to maintain the gap? No one really knows until the season starts, we have potentially 7 forwards who could score 25 goals minimum (Gallagher, Dadonov, Hoffman, Anderson, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Suzuki), they all most likely won't but they all do have the potential to. Even if you restrict Price to 50 games and he only wins at a 50% rate that is 25 wins and 50 points. Say Allen plays the remaining 32 games and only wins at a 50% rate that would still equate to 16 wins and another 32 points. That is a total of 82 points on the conservative side. 82 points last year would have had the Habs finish 18 points back of the Caps for the last WC spot in the East. NYI finished in the first non WC position last year with 84 points. I used the 50% win rates based on what both goalies had done over the last 2 seasons excluding last year to be conservative. This shows that with the average performances by our goalies, we have been getting over the previous 2 years that we could easily be in the hunt for a WC spot, factor in better production up front and we could actually win a WC.

EDIT*** The above is based solely on our goaltending being better it does not take into account better production from the forwards or the MSL "effect". The question becomes can we get an additional 12-15 more wins to push us to the 100 point mark, it might be pretty optimistic but I don't think it is unrealistic.
3 août 2022 à 13 h 8
#9
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: oct. 2020
Messages: 12,718
Mentions "j'aime": 17,336
We aren’t close to a playoff spot, of course, there are many variables ( Price’s health ), how our young D do ( Edmundson-Savard, Matheson-Barron and Harris-Wideman is not at all a good defensive core in theory ) but we have a lot of depth at forward ( especially on the wing ) that could boost up our scoring IF they produce. We’ll see but at best we’re like around 20th in the league imo
jonh514 a aimé ceci.
3 août 2022 à 15 h 22
#10
Go Habs Go
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: mars 2017
Messages: 10,667
Mentions "j'aime": 4,091
If it takes about .600 to make the playoffs, we were .432 under MSL. (We were .256 under Ducharme to start the season.)
If we stay around the same under MSL, we're around 25th.
Regardless of tanking, for long term success, we need MSL to be effective and our players to show improvement. It took historically bad results for us to stay at the bottom.
We shouldn't end up with the best odds again, and would be relying on lottery luck to get into the top 5 picks.

We can't be focused on drafting high. Our vets proving their worth for trade value and our young players succeeding, are more important right now.
Otherwise we won't have the cap space to improve when needed and development will suffer.
jonh514 a aimé ceci.
25 août 2022 à 20 h 58
#11
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: juill. 2021
Messages: 1,045
Mentions "j'aime": 546
Most of you are not answering the question that was asked. The question was, what would you do if the team starts winning and appears to be headed for the playoffs? The question most of you are answering is whether there’s any chance that could happen. Both of these are interesting questions though, so I’ll try to answer them one at a time.

Let’s start with the first question: The Canadiens proved in 2021 that if you can get into the playoffs, anything can happen, and there have been times (like the first time the Kings won the cup) when I’ve felt like every team who makes the playoffs has an almost equal chance at the cup. I also think playoff experience is valuable, even if it’s an early exit. So I wouldn’t start selling off players to try to drop out of a playoff spot just to get a higher draft position, but I wouldn’t trade futures for deadline rentals either.

Now the second question: I think this team could surprise some people. The forward depth looks good if they are healthy, they have some promising young players, the things I hear people saying about St-Louis remind me of Rod Brind’Amour, and even with Price out they have a proven #1 goalie. However, the defence looks questionable, they’re in a tough division and the better of the two conferences, and Detroit, New Jersey and Ottawa are much farther along in their rebuilds than Montreal. So while I wouldn’t be surprised to see some significant improvement, I’d be shocked if they make the playoffs.
jonh514 a aimé ceci.
 
Répondre
To create a post please Login or S'inscrire
Question:
Options:
Ajouter une option
Soumettre le sondage