Out of all prospects to trade. Matthew Knies is not somebody I would give up for anyone unless paired in a trade for a return of someone rhyming with Donnor McShavid.

Knies is untouchable

You would literally want Knies to turn into Ktachuk though? So I dont get it why he is untouchable? You can get the sure thing or gamble he MIGHT get almost as good as Ktachuk

HUGE overpay for MT. Leafs say no

Can’t see that being particularly close for Severson.
The only pieces of interest from the Leafs that would make the Devils willing to move Severson are Knies, Sandin or Nylander.

Yep, the only Tkachuk gamble worth exploring is if he would sign for 7x3 and it cost Knies & Robertson +picks, assuming Muzzin would be moved out easily and Sandin signs for 2x3. Holl and Kerfoot would need to be move out as well.

The result: next season Bunting will likely be gone and there will be no replacement coming from the prospect pool most likely. Along with him, Engvall and Kase will have to be replaced, perhaps Gaudette and Aube-Kubel as well if they are awful or prices themselves out above Engvall+Kase's cap hits. So, the Leafs would be looking for a top 6 spot again. The defense would probably be weaker in the upcoming season and perhaps the next as well.

Worst case scenario, is the Leafs lose Matthews and Nylander in two years and then Marner and Tkachuk the year after and Tavares is no longer elite. The Tkachuk trade would have cost at least Knies, Robertson, and two firsts so the prospect pool might not be replenished compared to the Leafs' current pool which isn't very strong. Knies and Robertson are PPG players in the first year that they both play a full season in CGY, and CGY drafts two studs with the 2023 and 2024 firsts.

Sure, Tkachuk is the sure thing but Nylander is also in there and the main difference between the two is last year which is probably not going to be replicated by Tkachuk in CGY even if they had Gaudreau still. The 2023 first would be another reason why the Leafs would ultimately lose the trade.

Tkachuk's cap hit will also limit the Leafs as well, if he wanted to he wanted to give them a discount, that number starts with a 9.

For the cost to acquire Tkachuk, yes I would rather keep Knies. He is literally the only prospect since the kids started the 2016-2017 season I have been excited about. The fact that he is making conscious decisions to remain in the NCAA and develop more before signing an ELC has me even more interested. Not only a good player, but a smart player.