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Colorado Avalanche signed Valeri Nichushkin (8 Years / $6,125,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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11 juill. 2022 à 22 h 11
#51
Just Keep Swimming
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Quoting: drewjenkins
OK then.

You're emotional and ignoring my arguments completely.

I'm glad you're focusing on the positives though.

Night.


****ing lol

I believe what you meant to say is " I'm sorry Random, I was wrong"

I'm sure that's what you meant though

Night 😘
11 juill. 2022 à 22 h 18
#52
Evans truther
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Quoting: drewjenkins
I'm glad you're focusing on the positives though.

Night.

He's part of the JFresh cult.
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11 juill. 2022 à 22 h 23
#53
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Quoting: ColonelX
He's part of the JFresh cult.


When you've come to believe that understanding is a cult you've totally lost the plot. They all say the same btw here is prof. McCurdy too. Only reason I used Jfresh is because he wanted a 3 year and that one had a nice 3 year timeline in the corner that made it easy to see.


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11 juill. 2022 à 23 h 26
#54
dad
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Gotta admit, more than I thought he'd bring in, but only slightly and well worth it. Plays the Avs system so well, couldn't have found a better replacement for him anywhere in the market. He's so important to this team.
11 juill. 2022 à 23 h 31
#55
Chris Peralta
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Needed signing for them but I see this backfiring on them cap-wise. I wouldn't have given him 6, probably 5
12 juill. 2022 à 0 h 33
#56
Banni
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Chris McFarland's tenure as a GM is off to an...interesting start. Could really "NUKE" the franchise's contention window for years to come potentially...

Kidding aside, I still vote yes, because the team should get at least 5 good years out of Nichushkin
12 juill. 2022 à 0 h 43
#57
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Val is essentially a Forward and a Defensemen in one package. He brings net-front presence on offense, shutdown skills, and a physical edge without mental mistakes and has been building his offensive output after 3 seasons of developing his two-way game. There is a reason "Selke" is mentioned with Val the past 2 years.

You can measure that impact with advanced statistics or you can actually watch the Avs games.

Nichushkin is a top line player since the Avs juggled their lines (which is what allowed them to win the Cup) and actually had balanced scoring for the first time in their window.

We have paid Nooch peanuts during the past 3 years and now it's his turn to get paid after most likely being runner-up in Conn Smythe voting.

Lehkonen will also be re-signed long-term and probably at slightly higher AAV than this board thinks is worth it for a "career year"; but it's their overall game that we value not just their stat sheet.

Just like Landeskog is our true team MVP; while MacKinnon and Makar get all the press (and they are great players so they deserve it): true Avs fans know that Landy is the one that makes it all work because he does the grunt and grit work that allows MacKinnon to focus on his strengths because Landy covers his weaknesses; to the detriment of his own stats but now he is gaining the glory of the one stat that matters: Championships.

These guys are worth more than overpaying on Goaltending so that is where Sakic and MacFarland are putting their money. After MacKinnon's extension and Lehky's RFA deal the next important piece is RHD and a top 6 forward. Kadri is not in the cards due to the cap and Burakovsky is not consistent or defensively responsible enough to stay even if he took a discount.
12 juill. 2022 à 8 h 4
#58
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I love Nichushkin but yikes...can't see this one aging well.
12 juill. 2022 à 9 h 12
#59
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A lot of people commenting on this thread don't seem to understand that the player has to accept the contract, too. "I only would have given him 5 or 6 years". "Overpay by a million on AAV". Okay, cool. In either case you don't sign him, he walks to free agency and gets a massive deal somewhere else. You then end up with a bit more cap space that you can either spend on a different UFA who isn't as good as Val who will also get more money/term than you're comfortable with, you trade for a player like Val and forfeit a bunch of assets on top of absorbing the contract, or you stick to your guns on your eval and have J.T. Compher playing top 6 minutes, wasting MacKinnon's last cheap season, because every free agent gets a bigger contract than you're willing to pay.
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12 juill. 2022 à 14 h 1
#60
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Quoting: Random2152
It was only ever one good season to people who don't pay attention. Val has been great ever since he landed in COL

The twins ****ing nailed it:





Within 100k. That's impressive.
Related, has anyone done an analysis to determine mathematically how accurate EvolvingWild's contract model actually is? I know anecdotally it's the best one but I haven't seen any data on it.
12 juill. 2022 à 14 h 7
#61
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Quoting: capfriendlyaccount
Within 100k. That's impressive.
Related, has anyone done an analysis to determine mathematically how accurate EvolvingWild's contract model actually is? I know anecdotally it's the best one but I haven't seen any data on it.


Yes. Every year they check and release the results. Here is last years: (hint, they did exceptionally well)


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12 juill. 2022 à 15 h 14
#62
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Quoting: Random2152
Yes. Every year they check and release the results. Here is last years: (hint, they did exceptionally well)




Exactly what I was looking for, thank you!
12 juill. 2022 à 15 h 34
#63
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Yikes and OUCH....
12 juill. 2022 à 15 h 55
#64
Watches no games
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Quoting: drewjenkins
I agree 100% with everyone above.





2018-19 | DAL | 57 games - 10 points = 14 point pace | Playoffs = 00 point pace
2019-20 | COL | 65 games - 27 points = 34 point pace | Playoffs = 16 point pace
2020-21 | COL | 55 games - 21 points = 31 point pace | Playoffs = 24 point pace
2021-22 | COL | 62 games - 52 points = 68 point pace | Playoffs = 62 point pace

This is the literal definition of one good season (at least statistically).
And I agree that he's always been a solid forechecker and two-way player.
But none of his other seasons warrant anything near $6,100,000 x 8 years.
Without last season his offers would be about half the AAV and half the term.

Nichushkin is 100% capable of living up to this contract.
But saying it's not based on one season is complete blasphemy.
And saying it's not risky ignores his age + many outlier contract years.


Please don't say "one strong year, at least statistically" as if there is one determining statistic for this. I would, of course, argue that point totals are a poor way of measuring not only impact, but more importantly for a guy like Val and his previous situation - potential impact. His ice-tilting numbers have always been among the best in the league; Colorado is just the first team to give him minutes and teammates to do that effectively and at a larger scale.

You could of course ask him to repeat this on a 2-year prove-it type deal or so, but then you're going to end up paying 8+ mil on a long-term cotnract when he successfully repeats the underlying numbers he's been pumping out for years. Nobody that tracks microstats or value any type of regression model is surprised at this development for Nichuskin.

The closest comparison in terms of this contract I believe is the one Marchand signed a few years back. Marchand is actually similar, cause he was played further down the lineup for seemingly no reason, and then exploded offensively when moved to the top line. I would say Nichuskin is better, less prone to suspension, and I beleive (cba checking) also slightly younger at the time of signing.

Oh and I'm a Bruins fan.
12 juill. 2022 à 16 h 14
#65
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Career high 29 points (in his rookie year) before having 52 points this season. Also a full NMC in the 1st 3 years with a 12 team no trade the last 5 years. Signing bonuses don’t start until the last 4 years of the deal which will make a buyout much more difficult towards the end of the deal.

Yeah, this is a BAD deal and Avs fans are thinking MacKinnon takes a large “hometown discount” after being massively underpaid for years and now watching guys like Val Nuchushkin get 8x$6.125. I highly doubt MacKinnon takes much of a discount while everyone else is getting paid market rate.
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13 juill. 2022 à 8 h 59
#66
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i'd be fine w/ the number if it wasn't this long, should've been 4 max at this price tag
 
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