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2021-2022 NHL Offseason Discussion Thread #6 - Alex DeBrincat is an Ottawa Senator

10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 28
#76
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Quoting: MatthewsFan




Dame you DAL, you have enough young talent lol

Logan Morrison was a nice addition (wonder if the offer him a ELC or AHL deal)


Had a backup plan for that as Im eyeing a guy out of the NCAA but I believe he went back so im waiting till the offseason

Jake Livingstone I believe his name is
10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 29
#77
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woof not a fan of the georgiev contract. probably should have just given him his q.o for this year.
10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 29
#78
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And another one bites the dust, Nathan Staios, sad face
10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 29
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Quoting: aadoyle
Like his boldness to gamble though as man if they get the same point totals as last year with lesser goaltending gotta give em props

They might not get the same point totals, but now that they’ve proven they can doninate in the playoffs, they might fall into the Tampa mindset of we just need to make it in, and then we can beat anybody. A cheap goaltending duo also lets them keep more of their core (like they should be able to keep Nichushkin and Lehkonen pretty easily, and probably even one of Kadri or Burakovsky as well now).
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10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 29
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I feel how Murray is gonna get traded is gonna look like how Domi was traded at the TDL

And honestly for all 3 teams involved it costs them almost nothing but a bit of cap space and some meh prospects
10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 31
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Quoting: MatthewsFan




Dame you DAL, you have enough young talent lol

Logan Morrison was a nice addition (wonder if the offer him a ELC or AHL deal)

I was wondering who was gonna win the Logan Morrison sweepstakes, he seemed like a lock to get a development camp invite and a minor pro league deal. I wonder if there’s a team in need of goaltending who will send an invite to Brett Brochu (is there a list of undrafted development camp invites?).
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10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 33
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Quoting: Alfie11
I was wondering who was gonna win the Logan Morrison sweepstakes, he seemed like a lock to get a development camp invite and a minor pro league deal. I wonder if there’s a team in need of goaltending who will send an invite to Brett Brochu (is there a list of undrafted development camp invites?).


NHL.com has been sending them out. Haven’t seen Brochu yet
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10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 36
#83
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Quoting: Alfie11
I was wondering who was gonna win the Logan Morrison sweepstakes, he seemed like a lock to get a development camp invite and a minor pro league deal. I wonder if there’s a team in need of goaltending who will send an invite to Brett Brochu (is there a list of undrafted development camp invites?).


Also wonder whose gonna win the Samuel Mayer stakes

6'3 201 pound 2-way LD wouldnt be a bad idea to look at
10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 45
#84
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Quoting: MatthewsFan




Dame you DAL, you have enough young talent lol

Logan Morrison was a nice addition (wonder if the offer him a ELC or AHL deal)


I am super pumped about the Stars over the next 10-15 years. I think we're gonna win a cup or two.
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10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 47
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Guys, do any of you know if Holtz's ELC can slide for one more year if he doesn't play in the NHL in 22-23?
I'd feel that it should cus he only played 9 NHL games and didnt begin his ELC until 21-22, but yet he doesn't show as a slide candidate on here.
10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 50
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Quoting: Tintin
Guys, do any of you know if Holtz's ELC can slide for one more year if he doesn't play in the NHL in 22-23?
I'd feel that it should cus he only played 9 NHL games and didnt begin his ELC until 21-22, but yet he doesn't show as a slide candidate on here.


You have to be 18/19 for a contract to be slide eligible
10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 53
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Quoting: A_Habs_fan
You have to be 18/19 for a contract to be slide eligible


You mean 18-19 years in age?
10 juill. 2022 à 18 h 3
#88
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Quoting: MatthewsFan




Dame you DAL, you have enough young talent lol

Logan Morrison was a nice addition (wonder if the offer him a ELC or AHL deal)


Oh lord Nill really won this draft if he can sign him, he replaces our lost 7th rounder in the Bishop deal. I know he’s an overager, but some players need more time to develop than others.

Don’t know why Bourque isn’t there though.

Edit: nvm, now I know
10 juill. 2022 à 18 h 4
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Who knew Ian Cole and Chris Pronger we’re so similar
10 juill. 2022 à 18 h 12
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Modifié 10 juill. 2022 à 18 h 19
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Care to walk us through the math to reinforce our understandings?


Quoting: Tintin
I'd like to know as well!
How does putting a rate on GSAx turn into SV%?
And is GSAA a different metric from GSAx or are they the same thing?


GSAx is goals saved above expected: It uses an xG model which accounts for shot quality (distance, angle, time since last shot event, change in angle from previous shot event, etc) to predict how many goals should have been scored based on the number and quality of shots the goalie faced (expected goals). If you take this number and subtract the number of goals the goalie actually allowed (actual goals), you get goals saved above expected.

GSAA is goals saved above average: it is NOT an advanced stat. All it does is use the average league save percentage and multiplies it by the number of shots a goalie has faced to get the average number of saves assuming a league average save percentage (not accounting for shot quality at all). You can then take the difference between the average number of saves and the total shots faced to get the average number of goals allowed. The difference between this value and the actual number of goals against is GSAA. Its a pretty useless stat since it treats every shot as equal - a dump in from center ice that happens to be on net is counted the same as a 2-on-0 breakaway ending with a cross-ice one timer

For GSAx, it makes sense to normalize the data by dividing by either A) time on ice, or B) shots/shot attempts faced. WIthout normalizing the data you cannot accurately compare between a goalie who has played 40 games and a goalie who has played 20 games. Normalizing by time on ice (usually this stat is GSAx/60: goals saved above expect per 60 minutes of ice time) is most common but is not completely fair for comparing goalies who face a drastically different number of shots per minute played (eg: if there are 2 goalies who are equally good and one faces 25 shots per 60 min and the other faces 35 shots per 60 mins, if you normalize by time on ice the goalie who faces more shots will have more chances to increase his GSAx since he faces more shots. This results in different GSAx/60 stats even though the goalies are equally good). In my opinion, normalizing GSAx by shots (or shot attempts - but to a lesser extent) is better since every shot affects GSAx but not every minute played affects GSAx (you can go multiple minutes of game time without facing any shots against). This will likely be highly correlated with SV% since theres not a huge difference in shot quality on average, but it also provides a lot of info that SV% doesnt. GSAx/Shot is the best metric to evaluate goaltenders in my opinion

For GSAA, the stat is pretty useless anyway and normalizing by shots faced doesnt really make sense since you arent accounting for shot quality anyway. From the thread @BeterChiarelli linked earlier this is what he was talking about having a R squared value of 1: SV% and GSAA/Shot. This basically means GSAA/Shot is a useless stat and doesnt tell you anything that SV% doesnt already tell you

I made a quick excel spreadsheet using moneypuck data so you can see the formulas for the different columns and some graphs showing the correlation between SV% and a couple of these normalized stats. I dont think I can directly share files on here so I just put it in a public google drive: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1rX32cDqpf08SHQQhfvtT-jcZ7MBsDgIe?usp=sharing

EDIT: google sheets kinda messed with the chart format so you can either download it and open it as a .xlsx file or look at the images in the drive
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10 juill. 2022 à 18 h 24
#91
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Quoting: Tintin
You mean 18-19 years in age?

yes, that’s why guys that spent several years in college or overseas only play 1-2 years on an ELC
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10 juill. 2022 à 18 h 25
#92
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The Avs seem to be really high on Alex Georgiev
10 juill. 2022 à 18 h 27
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Quoting: Canesfan21_
The Avs seem to be really high on Alex Georgiev


i hope sakic is right and not still drunk.
10 juill. 2022 à 18 h 36
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10 juill. 2022 à 18 h 40
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Quoting: Tintin
You mean 18-19 years in age?


Yes, that’s why you can only slide max twice and that’s only if you immediately sign an NHL contract after being drafted
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10 juill. 2022 à 18 h 59
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Choose A or B


<a href=Screen-Shot-2022-07-10-at-6-58-44-PM">
10 juill. 2022 à 19 h 13
#97
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Quoting: Db1899
Choose A or B


<a href=Screen-Shot-2022-07-10-at-6-58-44-PM">


My Gut says A as even though the numbers suck its probs a good player on a **** team while B is a okay player on an okay team

Let me guess as hes trending rn is one of the guys Kane?
10 juill. 2022 à 19 h 17
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Quoting: Db1899
Choose A or B


<a href=Screen-Shot-2022-07-10-at-6-58-44-PM">


B. Skinner?
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10 juill. 2022 à 19 h 17
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Quoting: aadoyle
My Gut says A as even though the numbers suck its probs a good player on a **** team while B is a okay player on an okay team

Let me guess as hes trending rn is one of the guys Kane?


Kane is A, Jeff skinner is B
10 juill. 2022 à 19 h 24
#100
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Quoting: Db1899
Kane is A, Jeff skinner is B


So my Gut was right

Thanks Gut

Also Rip Kane

Get that man out of that tire fire known as Chicago

For his sake and ours
 
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