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(TOR/VGK) - 79th for 95 + 135

Who won the trade?
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8 juill. 2022 à 12 h 1
#1
Trade confirmed: Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights
Détails de la transaction
Les Maple Leafs de Toronto font l’acquisition de:
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
Choix de 3e ronde en 2022 (NYR - #95 - Nicholas Moldenhauer)
Choix de 5e ronde en 2022 (CHI - #135 - Nikita Grebenkin)
Somme: 0 $0 $0 $
Variation: 0 $
Variation: 0 $
Variation: 0 $
Les Golden Knights de Vegas font l’acquisition de:
Logo de Golden Knights de Vegas
Choix de 3e ronde en 2022 (WPG - #79 - Jordan Gustafson)
Somme: 0 $0 $0 $
Variation: 0 $
Variation: 0 $
Variation: 0 $
8 juill. 2022 à 12 h 5
#2
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In this draft class, I think this is a fair deal.
8 juill. 2022 à 13 h 40
#3
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Statistically speaking, after the first handful of players, draft picks are worth the inverse of their number. Given what Toronto got, they should have given up the 55th or 56th selection, so they "won" this trade.

I put "won" in quotes there, because it is close to a fair trade and either team could have messed up their picks.
8 juill. 2022 à 18 h 24
#4
GoJetsGo
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Quoting: CSStrowbridge
Statistically speaking, after the first handful of players, draft picks are worth the inverse of their number.


Can you give me a source for this? It sounds right somehow but I'd like to see where the supporting data comes from.
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8 juill. 2022 à 19 h 49
#5
Steve Durbano Fan
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Quoting: CapFriendly


Vegas just gave away a 5th for nothing. There is no statistical advantage from picking in the front half of round three over the back half. Although a 5th is less likely to reach the NHL than a third the reality is Vegas traded 2 lottery tickets for 1. I have noticed good GM"s never do these type of trades and rather wait there turn and draft who is top of there list in that moment.
8 juill. 2022 à 21 h 22
#6
sensonfire
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The two picks going to Toronto add up in value to #86/87, using this value chart:

https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/



Instead, Toronto spends pick #79 on the two picks.

Kyle Dubas asleep at the wheel yet again shakes head

Vegas wins the trade.
8 juill. 2022 à 23 h 7
#7
Leafs Sufferer
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Quoting: sensonfire
The two picks going to Toronto add up in value to #86/87, using this value chart:

https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/



Instead, Toronto spends pick #79 on the two picks.

Kyle Dubas asleep at the wheel yet again shakes head

Vegas wins the trade.


This is...certainly a take.
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8 juill. 2022 à 23 h 41
#8
Hakuna Matata
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Modifié 9 juill. 2022 à 0 h 3
Quoting: Ritzy
This is...certainly a take.


A very bad take Jesus

As getting 2 prospects vs 1 is better

And besides knowing Vegas Gustafson will be traded for a guy Vegas will regret adding in about a year
10 juill. 2022 à 15 h 56
#9
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Quoting: capfriendlyaccount
Can you give me a source for this? It sounds right somehow but I'd like to see where the supporting data comes from.


It's a general principle and not a hard rule. It's called Zipf's law and it is wild how many places it works.
10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 32
#10
average joe
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Modifié 10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 55
Quoting: sensonfire
The two picks going to Toronto add up in value to #86/87, using this value chart:

https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/

Instead, Toronto spends pick #79 on the two picks.

Kyle Dubas asleep at the wheel yet again shakes head

Vegas wins the trade.


I wonder what happens when you take out the once-a-decade superstar who is know 3 years before the draft (and nobody would think about trading that #1 - except for the Leafs who blew a chance at Eric Lindros by doing this).
10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 45
#11
sensonfire
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Quoting: Messier99


It's a separation of 21 spots and there is no leverage whatsoever to having the last pick in the draft.

That's all I can say about that.



According to the author of this article, he used every trade involving the swapping of draft picks in recent years to draw up the value chart.

I didn't see any harm in taking his word for it.
10 juill. 2022 à 17 h 48
#12
average joe
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Quoting: sensonfire
The two picks going to Toronto add up in value to #86/87, using this value chart:

https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/


According to this chart, a #203 pick is worth 10X that of a #224 pick.

Quoting: CSStrowbridge
Statistically speaking, after the first handful of players, draft picks are worth the inverse of their number. Given what Toronto got, they should have given up the 55th or 56th selection, so they "won" this trade.

I put "won" in quotes there, because it is close to a fair trade and either team could have messed up their picks.


I think inversely with the square root of their number is more accurate.
10 juill. 2022 à 19 h 30
#13
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Obviously Vegas wanted to move up when "their" guy was still available at "79". So Vegas thought it best to give up the two picks for lets says the player they had rated at "68"

Not saying the Leafs made a bad deal, but I think Dubas made the pick just to get another draft pick. It just thing the longer draft selection list looks better to some Leafs fans.
11 juill. 2022 à 8 h 49
#14
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Quoting: Messier99
I think inversely with the square root of their number is more accurate.


That would mean Toronto should have given up a 28th pick. That seems too high in the draft.
11 juill. 2022 à 8 h 51
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Quoting: sensonfire
It's a separation of 21 spots and there is no leverage whatsoever to having the last pick in the draft.
That's all I can say about that.
According to the author of this article, he used every trade involving the swapping of draft picks in recent years to draw up the value chart.
I didn't see any harm in taking his word for it.


The relative value of the 1st pick and the 22nd pick is just under 5, while the relative value of the 203rd pick and the 224th pick is just over 10.

I'm not buying it.

Zipf's Law is more reasonable in my opinion.
11 juill. 2022 à 20 h 37
#16
average joe
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Quoting: CSStrowbridge
That would mean Toronto should have given up a 28th pick. That seems too high in the draft.


( 1/ 95^2) + (1 / 135^2) = (1 / P^2). P = 78. 78th pick is equivalent to the 96 and 135.
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11 juill. 2022 à 21 h 54
#17
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Quoting: Messier99
( 1/ 95^2) + (1 / 135^2) = (1 / P^2). P = 78. 78th pick is equivalent to the 96 and 135.


How did I screw up that math? ... I did square root instead of squaring it.
13 juill. 2022 à 8 h 14
#18
average joe
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Quoting: CSStrowbridge
How did I screw up that math? ... I did square root instead of squaring it.


Your correct. I wrote in incorrectly above and didn't even proof read since I thought I knew what I meant.
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