The Penguins still have a precarious offseason ahead of them, even with DeSmith and Letang resigned. We still have Malkin, Rakell, ERod, Kapanen, Heinen to worry about, and time is short. What I've created is what I think is a somewhat plausible scenario for the Penguins for the 2022-23 season. I do think there is some variation to the end product, but this is what I see as a "best-case scenario". Margins are tight, but lower than expected AAVs for Rust and Letang make things a little easier on Hextall going forward. Thus, I also tried to leave cap space for some wiggle room on contracts for guys like Geno, Rakell, and Marchment. I still see this team as a contender for a season or two before the inevitable rebuild.
Malkin:
There's still discourse over if Malkin should stay or leave. Quite frankly, both sides want Malkin back, and I don't like the Penguin's chances to score Kadri or Trocheck on the free agent market. Yes, age and injury history and blah blah blah. I don't care. Malkin is a franchise cornerstone and 71 will hang in the rafters of PPG Paints Arena. Malkin is still an elite producer on offense, and had a pace above PPG and 40 goals after a major knee surgery and with little in the way of top-6 caliber linemates. Current word is that Hextall is hesitant to give him over 3 years, despite just giving Letang 6. Honestly, we're going to rebuilding by the back half of that contract and will be able to afford to have a few anchors with flashy names attached. If 4 years or so gives us the ability to get Malkin at a lower AAV like this, do it. Otherwise, I wouldn't mind 3 years at ~7-7.5 AAV.
Rakell:
We gave up a package at the deadline for Rakell. I don't think the price was high, but that doesn't mean it should be a rental. Rakell won't be due for as big a cap hit as Nichushkin, Palat, Copp, etc, but could get something closer to Rust than what I have here. He's got skills both as a passer and shooter, and could work on a line with either Crosby or Malkin.
Marchment:
This was the UFA I went with. I don't necessarily like moving on from Zucker, especially dumping him, but Pittsburgh cannot afford to take risks, and I think a UFA would be a lower risk than him. If that means giving away assets to move on from him, to an extent so be it. I still wanted someone in the vein of a two-way presence for Malkin and Rust/Rakell to play with. Marchment had some Selke votes this year, a respectable .87 PPG, 114 hits, and almost a PIM per game, so he has some physicality and grit to his game. He still has some questions about his role, and most projections for his AAV have been between 2.5 and 4 mil.
Other options I could see are Dylan Strome, Nino Niederreiter, Ilya Mikheyev, or just keeping Zucker or ERod. I just prefer Marchment out of those options.
Pettersson/Joseph:
Pittsburgh has a logjam at LD, with 3 in the league and POJ ready. Dear fans of other teams, trading away John Marino does not solve this problem. Paws off. But I digress, Pettersson is clearly the odd-man out between the 3 we have in the NHL. Dumoulin had a down year and as such his value is low. Matheson's had some good seasons here but his contract is still unappealing. From what I've heard, there isn't much interest for any of them, but I wouldn't count it out.
MP has been good on defense, and I think he has untapped offensive skills. He's still just 25 and arguably hasn't hit his ceiling. I think he's underrated.
Kapanen/Rodriguez:
I have doubts about these two being in the black and gold in the future. Neither had been particularly consistent for the Penguins this season, and the team can't afford to have much inconsistency if they want to succeeed. If ERod hadn't fallen off halfway through the season, he'd be easily pencilled in where Marchment is, and I could still see him being there instead of Marchy. Kapanen is due for a rebound, but I think if a different team who wants a cheap middle-six winger like Minnesota or Edmonton wants him, be my guest. If he returns to the 60 point pace he was on in the shortened 2021 season, he'll be an asset. I just don't think he'll be one here.
Depth:
We've got some guys in the AHL who could see time in the bottom six. Drew O'Connor is all but guaranteed. Frontrunners for the other spot include Nylander, Poulin, Puustinen, and Hallander. The open spots we have are wings, unless Carter moves off of Center, and Hallander is listed only as a C. Bjorkqvist signed in Europe, I think the Liiga, so count himi out. I decided on Nylander here, but that's not guaranteed. We could find options in free agency, like Tyler Motte or getting ZAR or Boyle back, but I think letting some youth in is a better idea. O'Connor is set on a grinder line with Teddy and Brock, while Nylander is with Heinen and Carter for a scorng 3rd line. Puustinen and Zohorna are here as the 13th and 14th forwards. Knowing this team's injury issues for years, they'll see action.
Speaking of Heinen, bring him back for the 3rd line. He had 15 5v5 goals for the Penguins this year. The list of players who have done that since 06-07 is pretty short, and most of the guys on it had consistant top 6 roles and ice time. Heinen averaged under 13 minutes a night for reasons I don't know. Give him more ice time than 4th line minutes and greater opportunites, and he could hit 20 goals without issue. Anaheim mismanaged him, so thanks guys, I appreciate it. Please don't do that to Zegras.
Trade Options:
I won't rule out getting players through trades rather than free agency or the AHL, but I don't know many of their trade values, and think Hextall won't want to give up significant assets unless necessary. Guys I have my eyes on include Jesse Puljujarvi, Ivan Barbashev, Alex Kerfoot, and Pavel Zacha. If anyone is crazy enough to read all this and thinks they know an approximate value for these guys, I'd love to hear it.
2022 Draft:
We aren't getting an NHL ready player off the bat, but the draft starts in like an hour as I write this and might as well include this. I think the Penguins should keep the 21st OA pick and go after a defenseman. Pittsburgh's prospect pool may be shallow, but it's worst on defense, especially if POJ is going to make the NHL, which he should. I'd be crazy to think Nemec or Jiricek falls this far, and I think I can also count out Korchinski, Mintyukov and Mateychuk to be off the board.
I think Owen Pickering would be my first choice, but he could also be taken by that point. I'm also pretty high on Ryan Chesley and Lian Bishcel.
That being said, there are some good forward options. I could see one or more of Lambert, Miroshnichenko, and Yurov falling that far, and would have a hard time of passing those guys up.
More likely would be the likes of Snuggerud or the excellently named Jagger Firkus. I assume his parents are Rolling Stones fans.
There goes my afternoon. Am I crazy for doing this? Probably. But if you're here, you were crazy enough to read it. Uh, thanks, I guess? Hextall is a tougher nut to crack than Rutherford. He keeps his plans closer to his chest, and GMs much more quietly and conservatively than he played. I wanted to create something that I thought was realistic, and would allow the Penguins to keep contending for another couple years. The end product here is pretty reasonable to me. Only time will tell, but I think this follows management's and ownership's desires to try and compete without losing too many futures. Ultimately, we'll have to rebuild eventually regardless, so I think going out with the Big 3 of Sid, Geno, and Tanger and then rebuilding by the time Crosby;s contract is up is the best option, rather than a core with Trocheck/Kadri and going on a slow decline into mediocrity.
And of course, Let's Go Pens!
Chicago just sold Debrincat and has space for him. I figured teams like Arizona, most Canadian ones, maybe Seattle would be on Zucker's M-NTC, while Chicago could, but would be less likely to be.
Wild accept this if the cap doesn’t exist but it may cause some issues. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did this or something similar if they moved Dumba first
This is the best Pens ACGM on here so far and most realistic. Really could see most of this happening. Also, finally someone not selling the farm for 1 year of JT Miller.
If Malkin actually said he would accept 6x4 as the rumors say that should be an absolute yes. I want Marchment on Malkin's line as well. Defensive but can also finish. Same reason people want Puljujarvi only we don't have to trade for him.
I would definitely rather have Erod over Heinen at that price though. Maybe I missed it in the explanation but was there a reason for leaving that much cap space? Because the bottom 6 is rough
If Malkin actually said he would accept 6x4 as the rumors say that should be an absolute yes. I want Marchment on Malkin's line as well. Defensive but can also finish. Same reason people want Puljujarvi only we don't have to trade for him.
I would definitely rather have Erod over Heinen at that price though. Maybe I missed it in the explanation but was there a reason for leaving that much cap space? Because the bottom 6 is rough
On my choice for Heinen over ERod, I think at the point that the Penguins are at this their aging core and slim margins for cap space, they cannot afford risks. Are we going to get ERod from the 1st half of the season, the second half, or somewhere in between? Tough to say. Heinen was more inconsistant in my opinion, and if given an opportunity, he could be a steller depth piece. If we could get a consistant ERod, I'd love it, but I see him as being higher risk, higher reward than Heinen.
As for having that much cap space, I explained that this is in case Malkin, Rakell, and Marchment or whomever we end up with have higher cap hits than I have listed, and we could still have some room for another signing or a trade deadline deal. We also have Jarry entering the final year of his deal, and if he plays like he did this year, he'll be getting a significant payday next offseason.
And I don't think the bottom 6 is that bad. I think we're trying to overwork Jeff Carter by having him on both special teams, and as such I took him off of the PK, and have him getting PP2 time. I've already said my praises of Danton Heinen, but I consider him to be a great 3rd liner. Blueger has been a great depth piece, and McGinn was too, before his injury mid-season. I think we need to bring in some of the youth in our system, and Hextall named a few of them as potentially being NHL regulars next year. Nylander was one of them and DOC more or less would've been if he'd been healthy. And since we have the space, we could still bring in some depth in free agency.
I never said this is exactly what I think we'll look like, but I think this is reasonable. We can't really know as Hextall isn't as easy to read as Rutherford was. I tried to explain a lot of this in the thesis above, but if you didn't read all of it, I do not blame you at all.
On my choice for Heinen over ERod, I think at the point that the Penguins are at this their aging core and slim margins for cap space, they cannot afford risks. Are we going to get ERod from the 1st half of the season, the second half, or somewhere in between? Tough to say. Heinen was more inconsistant in my opinion, and if given an opportunity, he could be a steller depth piece. If we could get a consistant ERod, I'd love it, but I see him as being higher risk, higher reward than Heinen.
As for having that much cap space, I explained that this is in case Malkin, Rakell, and Marchment or whomever we end up with have higher cap hits than I have listed, and we could still have some room for another signing or a trade deadline deal. We also have Jarry entering the final year of his deal, and if he plays like he did this year, he'll be getting a significant payday next offseason.
And I don't think the bottom 6 is that bad. I think we're trying to overwork Jeff Carter by having him on both special teams, and as such I took him off of the PK, and have him getting PP2 time. I've already said my praises of Danton Heinen, but I consider him to be a great 3rd liner. Blueger has been a great depth piece, and McGinn was too, before his injury mid-season. I think we need to bring in some of the youth in our system, and Hextall named a few of them as potentially being NHL regulars next year. Nylander was one of them and DOC more or less would've been if he'd been healthy. And since we have the space, we could still bring in some depth in free agency.
I never said this is exactly what I think we'll look like, but I think this is reasonable. We can't really know as Hextall isn't as easy to read as Rutherford was. I tried to explain a lot of this in the thesis above, but if you didn't read all of it, I do not blame you at all.
That's fair. Heinen was definitely more consistent. To be fair though Erods dip had a lot to do with going from playing with Crosby to Carter. And from wing to center to back to wing. Even just looking at the second half, where Erod was struggling, he still put up similar points to Heinen. I just like his versatility more, being able to play wing and center, and up and down the lineup. Heinen basically played the same with Carter as he did with Malkin. Which could be looked at as a pro or a con I guess. But this is just my personal preference, it's not like picking one or the other is definitely right or wrong.
Okay, sorry I missed that. I actually don't think for AAVs for any of those players are low to be honest. Don't forget we save 1mil on JJ buyout and cap is going up next year - you might be able to pay Jarry just out of that money. And Dumo's contract is up.
I agree Carter's struggles came in part from overwork, absolutely. But I do think that bottom 6, at least the 3rd line, could use an improvement when you compare them to other top teams. Carter clearly struggled, Heinen is an average third liner, and Nylander hasn't even shown he can be a consistent NHLer. The 4th line in a vaccuum is fine, I just kind of grouped them and said bottom 6. Blueger is great, and I like DOC. McGinn was awful.
I'm not saying you said this is exactly what it would look like lol - none of us know. I think it's reasonable too - I just think you left a lot of cap space for a team that needs some 3rd line help. I read most of it -I just missed where you mentioned the cap space.
That's fair. Heinen was definitely more consistent. To be fair though Erods dip had a lot to do with going from playing with Crosby to Carter. And from wing to center to back to wing. Even just looking at the second half, where Erod was struggling, he still put up similar points to Heinen. I just like his versatility more, being able to play wing and center, and up and down the lineup. Heinen basically played the same with Carter as he did with Malkin. Which could be looked at as a pro or a con I guess. But this is just my personal preference, it's not like picking one or the other is definitely right or wrong.
Okay, sorry I missed that. I actually don't think for AAVs for any of those players are low to be honest. Don't forget we save 1mil on JJ buyout and cap is going up next year - you might be able to pay Jarry just out of that money. And Dumo's contract is up.
I agree Carter's struggles came in part from overwork, absolutely. But I do think that bottom 6, at least the 3rd line, could use an improvement when you compare them to other top teams. Carter clearly struggled, Heinen is an average third liner, and Nylander hasn't even shown he can be a consistent NHLer. The 4th line in a vaccuum is fine, I just kind of grouped them and said bottom 6. Blueger is great, and I like DOC. McGinn was awful.
I'm not saying you said this is exactly what it would look like lol - none of us know. I think it's reasonable too - I just think you left a lot of cap space for a team that needs some 3rd line help. I read most of it -I just missed where you mentioned the cap space.
That's a fair explanation for Rodreguez's issues with consistency. However, he had been consistantly good at the very beginning of the season with Carter before Crosby's return. I also want to point out that hockey reference has both ERod and Heinen having 2.0 points/60 minutes of ice time last season. One of the reasons I prefer Heinen is that he had more goals/60 than ERod, and we've had some issues with depth scoring at times this season. Ultimately I'd love to keep both of them, but I don't think it's all that likely. That would certainly make for a better 3rd line than Nylander on paper.
But I don't think it's fair to be that harsh on Nylander. He's suffered through the systems in Buffalo and Chicago previously, and was the top scorer in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. He still has the potential to be a consistant NHLer, but it's just a matter of whether or not he can reach that level. Either way, I could still see Puustinen or Poulin taking a roster spot.
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