i saw a rumour that it’s pick 7 for Anderson and Dvorak. As a sens fan i’m hella pissed about it

This trade won't happen while I like Anderson he's not bringing back the 7 overall. The #26 could be use to be swap and pick sooner but don't feel taking out good pick in 2023 + giving for free Joshua Roy as he's developing really good right now.

Oof, yeah I wouldn't take that as the Sens. Dvorak is an absolute no go for me right now. He has negative value.

I saw this rumor as well.

The only way this makes sense is if the Canadiens are taking Murray and Zaitsev. No one knows the Senators exact budget, but it is unlikely they can add 10 million in real cash without moving equivalent cash out.

I made another thread, but I think the basis of the trade will be Anderson/Dvorak/Edmundson for Murray/Zaitsev/Del Zotto/7th overall. Then add in a few more picks and prospects from Ottawa.

That would be win/win for both sides if you weigh the needs of each team. Don't mistake that as me saying I want Ottawa to do it, or that it is a good trade on paper. You have to understand that a good trade for Ottawa is one that gets them into the playoffs, and for Dorion saves his job. When the team cannot spend money, their options are limited. They can't just go into the season with the same roster and miss the playoffs, because then there is a risk of young players like Chabot and Tkachuk will want out. They both are rumored to have told Dorion they need the Senators to go out and acquire them real help on the ice. Which I assume translates into, spend money to surround them with talent to win.

So it's a win for Ottawa because it's cash in/cash out this year, but every player they move out is redundant dead weight. Say what you want about Anderson's contract long term, but he is a top 6 power forward who has averaged 30 goals per 82 games in his career. Dvorak is a good middle 6 center. Edmundson is a solid big and tough D who can play in the top 4 but might be better suited as a 4/5 tweener on a great team.

If Dvorak has a good season, Ottawa should be able to flip him next year for assets before his 8 team NTC kicks in. At 4.45M x 2 years, he might be a better option for teams who need a 3C but don't want to commit 3-5 years to a UFA. I assume the Senators would flip him to a cap team next year because his real money salary would escalate to almost 6 million. He might be worth a 2nd+3rd, or a high 2nd/very late 1st (Canadiens overpaid for him under duress). So what acquiring him for 1 year and flipping him for Ottawa accomplishes is that they get him as a rental for 1 year as their 3C, they recoup assets from the MTL trade, and the MTL trade ends up money in/money out over the first 2 years of it.

Why is it a win for Montreal? Well, we'll assume the market for Dvorak and Anderson is soft due to their term and money owed. The cap is tight, and teams are reticent to take on contracts with 3+ years of term left, unless the player is a good value on that contract. Both players aren't negative value, but they certainly aren't out playing their cap hits. Montreal extracts their 7th overall pick from the deal, along with whatever other assets Ottawa kicks in. Even more importantly, Montreal is rebuilding. They likely expect to start improving in 2 years. What happens in 2 years as a consequence of this trade? Murray/Zaitsev/Del Zotto are off the books. If they don't make this trade, Anderson and Dvorak are still on the books, and Anderson if he isn't playing well will be very difficult to move. So this trade gets Montreal a blue chip asset with the 7th overall pick, and long term cap flexibility so that they can start to surround their new young core with trade acquisitions/signings. Which is the stage Ottawa should be in now, but they can't do it because of money.

It would be cap neutral or better for Montreal (depending on if they bury any of the players). Edmunson was paid his bonus already, which offsets Ottawa already paying Zatisev's bonus.

It's a terrible trade for Ottawa if you ignore their situation. But you have to re-adjust what it means for Dorion to make a good trade, because this isn't NHL 22. He can't just load his last save file. If the Senators don't actively improve this season, there will be hell to pay. He can't improve the team due to bad contracts. Kent Hughes is going to throw Dorion a long term anchor in Anderson in order to help Dorion get into the playoffs in the short term, and he will hope that by the time Anderson declines, the Senators can finally spend their away out of that bad contract.