That's a silly overpay for DeBrincat, and why would you pay for retention on an RFA? They would be extending him immediately probably and plan around that, getting 3m in players this year doesn't really mean much.

And if the Leafs wanted Reimer+Bonino so bad, they should just give Nylander for Meier+Bonino+Reimer

Not with that retention, id say not even without retention. Topi evens out the Mrazek cap dump for arguments sake and 11OA in this draft and (2) late 1st round picks which are 25OA this year and likely that or later next don't entice me enough to pull the trigger IMO.

Mrazek dump isn't worth a first, and if it is they better just buy him out and take the 1m hit.

It looks like an overpay but the 1st rounders aren't all that majorly valuable. Two are in a relatively weak draft class this year and the 2023 one should be a very late 1st with this roster. Not saying they're not valuable, just that they shouldn't amount to franchise-changing players. The best piece here is Niemela.

Cat's still signed this year. His 6.4mil cap hit TOR the same regardless of his RFA/UFA status.

I know he has a hit of 6.4M this year, but paying for retention on that makes no sense. As an RFA, they would be planning to extend him and plan around that. Having 3m more to spend on rentals if it means you have to pay for it doesn't make sense.

Niemela could be franchise changing, 11th OA can enable them to get a decent replacement for him and 25th OA isn't that great but still a chance at getting someone, DeBrincat himself is a 2nd rounder.

Plus you lost Nylander too. Unless Wiesblatt is amazing, not worth it.

Casually adding the ultimate warrior Andrew Cogliano...

Mrazek is probably a 2nd + Abruzz... Just using Topi for aruements reference. CHI will want something in return with a high ceiling. I doubt they find that value in any of the 1sts and you may disagree but I don't see Topi with anywhere near the ceiling as DeBrincat. CHI will want to be risk analysing every move before pulling the trigger.

Chicago rejects, 3 very late 1st round picks aren't getting Debrincat

I'm not sure what execs have Niemela, my issue with the trade though isn't just what's going for directly DeBrincat (if someone gets him it will be for an overpay) and the fact that he's probably paying for retention. It's the overall changes that are happening to trade for Debrincat.

Out: Nylander, Niemela, 25th overall (TOR) + 2023 1st (TOR), Mrazek, Holl
In: Debrincat, Wiesblatt, 2023 2nd (SJ), 2024 3rd (SJ), Bonino, Reimer

Reimer is probably just going to be just as bad as Mrazek, he didn't do well in TOR the first time. Holl and Bonino basically cancel out.
Let's just say 2023 1st gets cancelled by 2023 2nd and 2024 3rd

You are left with Nylander, Niemela, 25th OV for DeBrincat+Wiesblatt

Debrincat has a 0.83 PPG rate to Nylander's 0.8 PPG rate since DeBrincat joined the league (Nylander's career is 0.78PPG). So I would put their trade value similar, except that DeBrincat has 8th most goals, so that puts him ahead not by a 1st round pick though.

That leaves Wiesblatt for Niemela and 25th OV, idk who wiesblatt is but I'm confident that is a massive overpay. If I'm wrong let me know.

Reimer's value is at around a 2nd rounder. You have to attach a 2nd to Mrazek just to get rid of him.

I was just expressing the CHI point of view though between both moves yes its bad for TOR.

Mrazek had amazing stats not too long ago too, my point is that Reimer will likely fail in Toronto and giving up a 2nd for him before exploring free agency doesn't make sense.

How good is Wiesblatt though?

I laughed out loud when I saw “niemela could be franchise changing”

He’s a 20 year old RHD who has 0 NHL experience and likely tops out as a small offensive dman who can play on the 2nd pair.

Yeah, I got that but at the end of the day, DeBrincat isn't leaving except for an overpay, I don't think they Davidson is worried about that 9m QO at all since that would be around his worth. I suspect though he might be wanting to warm up Kane to the idea of a trade but he wants it to be Kane's idea. I could be wrong though, but I haven't heard anything about Kane and Toews extensions. I think he has hope that they would want to be moved at the deadline and just come back and sign next year. Their fire sale ofc is to have most picks for next years draft but also improve their chances at getting at least one of the top 3 guys, namely Bedard.

Could as in the future, it's called being a prospect with high upside/ceiling. IF he has top 2 potential, that is franchise changing. I didn't say he will be or he is.

He's small for a D-man but so is Makar.

Yesterday or day before KD in the press conference said that initial contact had been made regarding getting a gauge on what they might be looking at for their next deals but very preliminary by the sounds.

Thing is though, they can sign someone else instead, getting Reimer.

If the Leafs could get that much for Nylander and freeing cap space, they should use that cap to sign a player not giving up three first rounders for DeBrincat.

Then I don’t remember what his qualifying offer is but it’s at least 8M

Except he doesn’t have that potential or ceiling. He’s max a 2nd pair guy. I’ve watched him play many times.

Yes Makar is smaller. But he’s an anomaly.

He's a 20 year old defenseman it's pretty early to say.
He was a 3rd rounder and now he's considered a top prospect. Q Hughes is also smaller than Topi

They should see what Evander Kane is looking for and decide if it's worth it. Kane with Matthews and Marner would be the best line in the league. I'd trade Nylander and Kerfoot in a second if l could get Kane, he's everything the leafs are looking for. Then send a young prospect for Ryan Reaves and were playoff ready and no more being pushed around.

Kane wants at least 7 from the Oilers and 8 from other teams so i think that means 7x8 or 8x7. Nylander for Kane is a trade off that I wouldn't like.

The narrative is that the Leafs have a two year playoff window guaranteed with Matthews. That doesn't mean they just have a two year playoff window, even if they do lose Matthews, unless they also lose most of: Nylander, Marner, Sandin and Liljegren, Robertson, Knies and Niemela along the way.

Matthews won't be replaced easily but they could sign someone else, and there are 31 teams who don't have him, 5 of them have won the cup during his career.

Nylander still has the potential, I hope Dubas doesn't move him even if it costs him an extension, because it makes no sense to move Nylander without seeing if he can improve his defensive play and also without knowing how much Matthews and he want to extend for.

There are plenty of top offensive players in the League that are defensive liabilities or aren't very interested in playing physical or defense. What matters is if they fit the team systems and what mitigation measures are taken by the team to lessen those drawbacks.

If the Leafs are bringing in someone with size/physicality it should be someone with speed and skill that can keep up like Kane but should be an addition to the top 6. Line 4 needs to be better too with providing depth scoring.