Take out Lapierre and the retention on Miller (you're not even really using it here so what's the point) and I think it looks about right.

As for the rest of the team, Hagelin is likely done due to a major eye injury, and I don't think there's any chance the Caps run it back with Sammy and Vitek in net again. MacLellan's said upgrading in goal was a priority this offseason, and he's got a track record of keeping his word when he says stuff like that in public.

It's expected Vancouver can get a package like this for Miller, so I'm assuming Caps would have to include Lapierre in a Miller trade. But given the Fiala trade, maybe it can get done without Lapierre if the market fizzles enough

I know there's rumors about a bidding war, but I just don't get who would give them a package like this. Teams that are in a cap crunch will want him because of his cheap cap hit, but they'll be valuing him as a rental, and I can't see a team giving up 3 1sts plus in value for a rental. Teams that have room to extend him are mostly gonna be the ones who're rebuilding, and they won't want to give a massive package of futures for a guy and then give him a massive extension that starts after he turns 30. So to get a package like the one in this ACGM you need multiple teams who are currently in their window to contend and have lots of cap space (and need Miller, and that Miller is willing to extend with). The only teams I see that fit that description are the Caps and the Avs, and the Avs' cupboard is so bare they don't have the assets to make a massive offer in the first place. The Rangers have been brought up but I don't think they have the space to extend Miller while also re-signing K'Andre, Laf, and Chytil next year. If you can think of another team that's in a position to make this kind of offer let me know, cause I can't think of any.

I think Toronto would be willing to move someone like Niemela in a Miller deal, but he'd have to come with retention. I think they'd match this package from the Caps at least, given that they'd be getting him as a one year rental in all likelihood. I could also see Minnesota getting in the rental market for him with retention as well after moving Fiala. But I agree that I don't see it making sense for a lot of teams to offer a big package for him with an extension, with two firsts being the most I can see someone being reasonably willing to give up

I think that the Fiala trade is a great representation of what the trade market in the NHL actually is. No matter how many teams are bidding or how good a player is, once they get past the second line / top 3 D barrier they all return a singular first and a prospect -- there is no difference between a true star like Fiala and Eichel or a bad second line winger with size like Anderson. This in theory wouldn't be an overpay for Miller, but it would be comparable to the Eichel trade and more than a forward has returned in the NHL for at least 8 years.