Oh, so that’s why Nill hasn’t signed Oettinger and Robertson…

I've been playing around with some of my NHLe figures and I decided to take part in a little experiment based on a clickbait video thumbnail I saw on YouTube:

Is Connor Bedard a better prospect than McDavid?

I haven't watched it yet as I wanted to form my own opinion on the matter first.

McDavid's NHLe progression over his junior career is nothing short of ridiculous and had he been NHL-draft eligible as a 16 year-old, he would have posted the seventh-highest NHLe in the draft (based on quick math, didn't check the late rounds) and arguably goes as the third- or fourth-overall pick of that class (cannot understate how monstrous a season Drouin had in 2012-13). McDavid unequivocally goes first overall in 2014 based on his production as well, but the gap between him and Draisaitl is far smaller than one would think (about 4.5 points). For reference, his NHLe's are as follows:

McDavid D-2 NHLe: 24.741pts
McDavid D-1 NHLe: 41.750pts
McDavid D-0 NHLe: 60.296pts

Bedard started his junior career on actual fire, but it's important to consider that the WHL's "bubble" half-season meant that the Regina Pats missed out on a lot of quality competition. In the formula for NHLe, given as NHLe = (P/GP junior)*(82 NHL GP)*2*(NHLe Factor), I've applied a correction by removing the doubling multiplier typically added to junior leagues. A slightly arbitrary decision but the end result seems satisfactory enough to approximate what a proper WHL season would have resulted in. His resultant D-2 and D-1 NHLe's are as follows:

Bedard D-2 NHLe: 21.889pts
Bedard D-1 NHLe: 37.889pts

The transition between D-2 and D-1 seasons favours Bedard's year-over-year growth to McDavid's if only ever so slightly. This bodes well for Bedard having the potential to eclipse MCDavid as a better prospect: developmentally, he's a hair ahead of what McDavid did in Erie prior to his draft season despite his NHLe falling short of the McDavid benchmark. There's also the matter of the relative strength of the Regina Pats to consider: they have been a very, very poorly run WHL team since winning the Bedard draft lottery and have failed to build a contending team around Bedard. In order to match McDavid's year-over-year growth into his draft season, he would need to play at a 149-point pace (2.328P/GP).

For context, no 18 year-old player in the modern WHL (since the 2006 NHL lockout) has scored equal to or more than 130 points since Sam Steel in 2016-17 (131 points). No 18 year-old has hit or crossed the 140-point mark since Daymond Langkow in the 1994-95 season. No modern WHL player has breached 140 points. Furthermore, the only modern WHL players to post a P/GP above 2.000 were Aleksi Heponiemi (2.070P/GP, 2017-18), Oliver Bjorkstrand (2.000P/GP, 2014-15), and Sven Baertschi (2.000P/GP, 2011-12). Bedard's task is to eclipse these benchmarks as a seventeen year-old.

I'm currently projecting his draft-year NHLe to be 55.943 points, which translates to 152.668 points over 64 WHL games (2.385P/GP) assuming his year-over-year growth rate is consistent to McDavid's. As it stands, Bedard is currently projecting to be the best prospect since Connor McDavid but likely falls short of eclipsing #97. Whether or not he meets the projection is an entirely different question, but boys and girls lordy do we have ourselves one hell of an NHL talent in the WHL right now.

EDIT: for a little bit more context for how good Bedard could be, Matthews' draft-year NHLe was 48.093 points.

This is cool and all but…can he play against men???

Connor Bedard is a freak of nature

Connor Bedard is a freak of nature

Connor Bedard is a freak of nature

Every teams best Prospect
Anaheim Ducks: Mason McTavish
Arizona Coyotes: Logan Cooley
Boston Bruins: Fabian Lysell
Buffalo Sabres: Owen Power
Calgary Flames: Dustin Wolf
Carolina Hurricanes: Scott Morrow ("next Cale Makar")
Chicago Blackhawks: Frank Nazar
Colorado Avalanche: Oskar Olausson
Columbus Blue Jackets: Kent Johnson
Dallas Stars: Wyatt Johnston/Mavrik Bourque? (Idk who the best is, all I know is that all of them are getting traded for an aging dman)
Detroit Red Wings: Simon Edvinsson
Edmonton Oilers: Dylan Holloway
Florida Panthers: Mackie Samoskevich
Los Angeles Kings: Brandt Clarke
Minnesota Wild: Jesper Wallstedt
Montreal Canadiens: Juraj Slafkovsky (not Shane Wright)
Nashville Predators: Yaroslav Askarov
New Jersey Devils: Luke Hughes
New York Islanders: Aatu Raty
New York Rangers: Brennan Othmann
Ottawa Senators: Jake Sanderson
Philadelphia Flyers: Cutter Gauthier (cool name)
Pittsburgh Penguins: Pierre-Oliver Joseph
San Jose Sharks: William Eklund
Seattle Kraken: Matthew Beniers
St. Louis Blues: Jake Neighbours
Tampa Bay Lightning: Isaac Howard
Toronto Maple Leafs: Topi Niemela
Vancouver Canucks: Jonathan Lekkerimaki
Vegas Golden Knights: Brendan Brisson
Washington Capitals: Hendrix Lapierre
Winnipeg Jets: Cole Perfetti

Every teams best Prospect
Anaheim Ducks: Mason McTavish
Arizona Coyotes: Logan Cooley
Boston Bruins: Fabian Lysell
Buffalo Sabres: Owen Power
Calgary Flames: Dustin Wolf
Carolina Hurricanes: Scott Morrow ("next Cale Makar")
Chicago Blackhawks: Frank Nazar
Colorado Avalanche: Oskar Olausson
Columbus Blue Jackets: Kent Johnson
Dallas Stars: Wyatt Johnston/Mavrik Bourque? (Idk who the best is, all I know is that all of them are getting traded for an aging dman)
Detroit Red Wings: Simon Edvinsson
Edmonton Oilers: Dylan Holloway
Florida Panthers: Mackie Samoskevich
Los Angeles Kings: Brandt Clarke
Minnesota Wild: Jesper Wallstedt
Montreal Canadiens: Juraj Slafkovsky (not Shane Wright)
Nashville Predators: Yaroslav Askarov
New Jersey Devils: Luke Hughes
New York Islanders: Aatu Raty
New York Rangers: Brennan Othmann
Ottawa Senators: Jake Sanderson
Philadelphia Flyers: Cutter Gauthier (cool name)
Pittsburgh Penguins: Pierre-Oliver Joseph
San Jose Sharks: William Eklund
Seattle Kraken: Matthew Beniers
St. Louis Blues: Jake Neighbours
Tampa Bay Lightning: Isaac Howard
Toronto Maple Leafs: Topi Niemela
Vancouver Canucks: Jonathan Lekkerimaki
Vegas Golden Knights: Brendan Brisson
Washington Capitals: Hendrix Lapierre
Winnipeg Jets: Cole Perfetti

the “next Cale Makar” didn’t even make the WJC team in his last year of eligibility 💀💀

I mean, was he cut or did he just choose to not participate ( I’m pretty sure Cole Sillinger could’ve made the WJ squad but obviously no reason for him to go, he has nothing to prove as an NHL established player )

Scott Morrow is not an established NHL player lol. I don’t even think he’s turned pro yet

Uh oh - let’s hope the kids alright

Top 2023 prospect Matvei Michkov injured in today's KHL preseason game. https://t.co/lhIluVifkS

— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) August 4, 2022

Scott Morrow is not an established NHL player lol. I don’t even think he’s turned pro yet

I mean, was he cut or did he just choose to not participate ( I’m pretty sure Cole Sillinger could’ve made the WJ squad but obviously no reason for him to go, he has nothing to prove as an NHL established player )

Update - Pronman said 2 months at least potentially.
That is tough if true. Really adds some spice into the 2023 pan with the rankings.

I was talking about Sillinger lol



Seems like you completely cut out Sillinger and the question

You not a fan of Morrow or just too much hype.

I am on that hype train, IMO he is legit. Not saying he will be the next Makar but Morrow is a very gifted player

I was talking about Sillinger lol



Seems like you completely cut out Sillinger and the question

The point was that the REASON Sillinger didn't go to WJC is because he was literally playing in the NHL.
Morrow was not, so it's not a good comparison.

My point was that some players aren’t participating due to other reasons ( Wright, Sillinger, Power, the list goes on for miles ) which could be the case for Morrow

For all of those guys, and pretty much every other non-returning player, the reason is that they’re trying to make the NHL. Morrow is going back to college. He’s not gonna be at training camp trying to make the NHL because he doesn’t have a contract. I haven’t heard anything about an injury or anything. Regardless, the point is that he’s not even close to being three levels below Makar.