SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/NHL

Prospect Discussion Thread #3

30 juin 2022 à 15 h 16
#26
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2017
Messages: 8,440
Mentions "j'aime": 6,060
Just updated my website again ( https://upsidedownhockey.herokuapp.com/ ): It now has a prospect page with NHLe, Star probability, and NHLer probability for over 14,000 prospects. It includes both drafted and undrafted prospects. Data is from Top Down Hockey

I just finished making it 10 mins ago so there might still be some bugs, but its all free so you cant complain too much lol

Here's an example:

UAvvSpM.png
yikes, AndrewLadd, nickthehabsfan and 2 others a aimé ceci.
30 juin 2022 à 16 h 34
#27
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2020
Messages: 9,527
Mentions "j'aime": 8,968
Quoting: MatthewsFan




He doesn't currently have a Liiga deal and his destination for next season is still unknown.

Seattle was really good this year, adding Lambert would make them a real threat to win the WHL, because I think Edmonton will regress (I believe they can only keep a maximum of 3 of Neighbours, Sourdif, Prokop, Guhle, and Cossa as overagers, but presumably their NHL teams will want them in the AHL, and Guenther might just make Arizona out of camp). The Thunderbirds only really lose Rybinski and Svejkovsky. Their top scorer (Jared Davidson) is eligible to stick around as an overager I think, and they’ll have 3 prospects that could go in this year’s 1st round in Brad Lambert, Kevin Korchinski, and Reid Schaefer. Plus the already drafted Samuel Knazko (CBJ) and Conner Roulette (DAL), and their starting goalie, Thomas Milic (undrafted). Depending on when guys graduate, they could be a force for the next 2 years.

The Winnipeg Ice also look real good next year. Matt Savoie and Conor Geekie are probably going top 20 and both probably go back to the WHL for a year. Zach Benson looks real nice as a high 2023 pick. I think Michael Milne (2022 eligible, probably getting drafted as a double overager) and Jack Finley (TBL) are eligible to return too. And their starting goalie (Daniel Hauser) is only an ‘04.

If Dylan Garand sticks around, then Kamloops could be good too, just getting hard carried by him and Logan Stankoven lol
AndrewLadd, EsoYeezus69 et Remus a aimé ceci.
30 juin 2022 à 17 h 19
#28
EklundCelebriniSmith
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: sept. 2019
Messages: 10,057
Mentions "j'aime": 12,816
Quoting: UpsideDownQue
Just updated my website again ( https://upsidedownhockey.herokuapp.com/ ): It now has a prospect page with NHLe, Star probability, and NHLer probability for over 14,000 prospects. It includes both drafted and undrafted prospects. Data is from Top Down Hockey

I just finished making it 10 mins ago so there might still be some bugs, but its all free so you cant complain too much lol

Here's an example:

UAvvSpM.png


awesome as always, good stuff.

interesting to see Slaf's analtyics (prospect wise) are almost as low as Lamberts/ 20-30 picks.
UpsideDownQue, AndrewLadd et zk97 a aimé ceci.
30 juin 2022 à 17 h 36
#29
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2017
Messages: 8,440
Mentions "j'aime": 6,060
Quoting: yikes
awesome as always, good stuff.

interesting to see Slaf's analtyics (prospect wise) are almost as low as Lamberts/ 20-30 picks.


Thanks!

Slaf's international tournament stats werent included so hes being judged purely based on his professional league play which is why his numbers are so low. Unfortunately I dont have the NHLe and projection models to add them in, I just download the data from Top Down Hockey's public tableau page. Im sure he would have much higher NHLe and higher probabilities if it included his tournament data
30 juin 2022 à 17 h 49
#30
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2020
Messages: 9,527
Mentions "j'aime": 8,968
Modifié 30 juin 2022 à 18 h 3
So Pronman’s full 7 round mock draft is out now, and while I think Wright at 4oa is stupid and wrong, I did really end up liking how it turns out for Ottawa. Picking up Matthew Savoie at 7 (him or Kemell are my top 2 choices if none of the presumptive top 6 fall, and I’d be happy with either) and then Maveric Lamoureux at 39 (I really think this pick should be used on a RHD and Lamoureux is one of the most intriguing, especially with Salomonsson and Luneau gone as they are in this mock draft) is a great start, and would totally make up for last year’s bungling imo.

Savoie would slot perfectly alongside Tkachuk and Norris as the skilled playmaker on that line to complement Norris the sniper and Tkachuk the power forward in front of the net. His drive and motor are things the Sens probably like, despite being undersized. He’s also got a great shot. I think he’d probably fit better on that line than with Stutzle, although having two supremely skilled guys play with each other never hurts. Luckily Batherson has shown some chemistry on both lines. Pronman made this pick because he heard that Ottawa had interest in the Winnipeg Ice boys. I really REALLY hope that doesn’t mean Geekie at 7, that was my fear all year and I’d only just managed to convince myself that it wasn’t happening lol. Savoie would be a great pick though.

Lamoureux is huge and physical. He’s also relatively mobile for his size and has a massive shot, plus performed well at the combine. He’s exactly what you want in a 3RD and has top 4 upside if his ability to move the puck develops well. A third pair of Kleven-Lamoureux would be an absolute nightmare to face in like 5-6 years, kinda like Calgary’s very good third pair of Zadorov-Gudbranson this year.

While the first two picks were great, Pronman even threw me a bone by having the Sens take Jordan Dumais at 72, who I think is criminally underrated despite being tiny. He’s one of the few truly diminutive, highly skilled players that I actually like (I think I’m famously against these guys most of the time lol, because I think far more of them turn out like Bracco than Gaudreau) but Dumais is one of the few exceptions for me, because I just think his skill is so far off the charts that he’ll find a way to compete in a top 6 role, or at least has a better shot than most skill players his size. Like he was 3rd in QMJHL points (10th in goals, T-1st in assists) as a draft eligible player this year, which is crazy.

Pronman did have a more classic Sens pick at 64 in Devin Kaplan who looks like a big, competitive, decently skilled bruiser (wow sounds kinda familiar, hope they don’t use a top 10 pick on him). He does have issues with his skating and major inconsistency though, which is fine for the late 2nd I guess, but I woulda preferred Gleb Trikozov, Vinzenz Rohrer, or Tyler Brennan here personally.

The rest of the draft isn’t too important, but looks like a Sens draft. Miko Mattika is another big winger with a good shot and skating/inconsistency/compete issues. He’s not a guy you reach for, but at pick 87 he’s the type of forward with NHL tools that I don’t mind as a project. I still woulda taken Vinzenz Rohrer, Mason Beaupit, or Servac Petrovsky there though. He did take a goalie, which is expected with the number of picks Ottawa has, and while Andrew Oke wasn’t great, he does have decent size and was playing on a terrible Saginaw team. Marek Hejduk and Luke Mittelstadt are fun with recognizable names.

I think it was interesting that he took 2 small, highly skilled players with Ottawa’s first 4 picks, because Ottawa’s emphasis has been heavily on size recently. It makes sense that Ottawa could use this draft to take advantage of Savoie and Dumais going slightly lower than they maybe should because of their size due to Ottawa already being a massive team. Tkachuk, Batherson, and Formenton are all established top 9 forwards at 6’3”+, and none of Stutzle, Norris, Pinto, or Joseph are smaller than 6’1”, plus guys like Sokolov, Jarventie, and Boucher are on the way, and bring plenty of size as well. So Ottawa can totally afford to grab a couple skill guys with super high upside and be safe in the knowledge that they will be well-protected and basically free to create as they please out there. I do wonder if this is the route they end up going though. I would for sure be on board with it, but I’m not sold the team wants to go in that direction, but I’m prepared to be surprised.
30 juin 2022 à 20 h 26
#31
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: oct. 2020
Messages: 12,657
Mentions "j'aime": 17,293
Anyone know if James Stefan is good ( Patrik Stefan’s son and a 2022 draft eligible )?
30 juin 2022 à 20 h 40
#32
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2020
Messages: 9,527
Mentions "j'aime": 8,968
Quoting: A_Habs_fan
Anyone know if James Stefan is good ( Patrik Stefan’s son and a 2022 draft eligible )?

He wasn’t taken in Pronman’s full 7 round mock draft, so my assumption is no lol
1 juill. 2022 à 17 h 3
#33
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: oct. 2020
Messages: 12,657
Mentions "j'aime": 17,293
The 2022 GM Game draft is done, now is it going to be close to IRL of course not but if you want to check our a possible Draft outcome, here’s the Link
1 juill. 2022 à 17 h 25
#34
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2020
Messages: 9,527
Mentions "j'aime": 8,968
Quoting: A_Habs_fan
The 2022 GM Game draft is done, now is it going to be close to IRL of course not but if you want to check our a possible Draft outcome, here’s the Link

Savoie at 2, Nazar at 5, and Slafkovsky at 9? Yeah that’s not how it’s going to go lol
yikes et A_Habs_fan a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 17 h 34
#35
retired
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: avr. 2020
Messages: 8,893
Mentions "j'aime": 4,761
Quoting: UpsideDownQue
Just updated my website again ( https://upsidedownhockey.herokuapp.com/ ): It now has a prospect page with NHLe, Star probability, and NHLer probability for over 14,000 prospects. It includes both drafted and undrafted prospects. Data is from Top Down Hockey

I just finished making it 10 mins ago so there might still be some bugs, but its all free so you cant complain too much lol

Here's an example:

UAvvSpM.png


what do the numbers mean?
1 juill. 2022 à 17 h 41
#36
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2020
Messages: 9,527
Mentions "j'aime": 8,968
Why does it always seem like the Sens get the pick directly after the consensus top group? Last year there was a consensus top 9, and the Sens picked 10th. This year it seems like Gauthier has muscled into the consensus top 6, leaving the Sens, once again, as the first team once the field opens at pick number 7. I just hope they go with a guy actually projected in that range this time around lol
yikes et Saskleaf a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 17 h 44
#37
EklundCelebriniSmith
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: sept. 2019
Messages: 10,057
Mentions "j'aime": 12,816
Quoting: Alfie11
Savoie at 2, Nazar at 5, and Slafkovsky at 9? Yeah that’s not how it’s going to go lol


Nazar at 5 would create havoc lol. Kinda wanna see it.
1 juill. 2022 à 18 h 13
#38
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: oct. 2020
Messages: 12,657
Mentions "j'aime": 17,293
Quoting: Alfie11
Savoie at 2, Nazar at 5, and Slafkovsky at 9? Yeah that’s not how it’s going to go lol


Well it is a fantasy game so we don’t care about size as much, I could see the argument to have Savoie at 2 rankings wise, though I would agree that Nazar at 5 and Slaf at 9 are a bit too high/low
1 juill. 2022 à 19 h 11
#39
EklundCelebriniSmith
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: sept. 2019
Messages: 10,057
Mentions "j'aime": 12,816
Lest we forget McGuire was super critical of Montreal selecting Carey Price as an analyst and years later picks Tyler Boucher 10th OA.
zk97, aadoyle, EsoYeezus69 and 3 others a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 19 h 18
#40
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2020
Messages: 9,527
Mentions "j'aime": 8,968
Quoting: yikes
Lest we forget McGuire was super critical of Montreal selecting Carey Price as an analyst and years later picks Tyler Boucher 10th OA.

McGuire is the least credible anything in hockey. Whatever job he does he is the worst at. Guys like Button and Chiarelli have nothing on McGuire, and if you want to know what Manitoba Jr. B team some guy played on 47 years ago, Jeff Marek does it better.
yikes a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 19 h 22
#41
Hakuna Matata
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: févr. 2020
Messages: 33,192
Mentions "j'aime": 20,728
Quoting: yikes
Lest we forget McGuire was super critical of Montreal selecting Carey Price as an analyst and years later picks Tyler Boucher 10th OA.


Its like Karma came around and gave him a nice Will Smith slap
1 juill. 2022 à 19 h 33
#42
EklundCelebriniSmith
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: sept. 2019
Messages: 10,057
Mentions "j'aime": 12,816
Quoting: Alfie11
McGuire is the least credible anything in hockey. Whatever job he does he is the worst at. Guys like Button and Chiarelli have nothing on McGuire, and if you want to know what Manitoba Jr. B team some guy played on 47 years ago, Jeff Marek does it better.


Everything about this comment is great.

SO to the goat Jeff Marek.
Alfie11 a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 19 h 39
#43
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2017
Messages: 8,440
Mentions "j'aime": 6,060
Modifié 1 juill. 2022 à 19 h 55
Quoting: DirtyDangle
what do the numbers mean?


NHLe is NHL equivalency, which is the number of points they would score in an 82 game NHL season. Each league (NCAA, OHL, WHL, Liiga, etc) has a different multiplier which is used to convert between a players P/GP in that league and an NHL P/GP

Star % is the probability that the prospect will be in the top 18.5% of players in WAR per 82GP

Make % is the probability that the prospect will play 200+ NHL games in their career and have positive WAR

It's the same data that JFresh uses for his prospect cards but without the paywall
yikes, Alfie11 et DirtyDangle a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 20 h 12
#44
EklundCelebriniSmith
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: sept. 2019
Messages: 10,057
Mentions "j'aime": 12,816
Quoting: UpsideDownQue
NHLe is NHL equivalency, which is the number of points they would score in an 82 game NHL season. Each league (NCAA, OHL, WHL, Liiga, etc) has a different multiplier which is used to convert between a players P/GP in that league and an NHL P/GP

Star % is the probability that the prospect will be in the top 18.5% of players in WAR per 82GP

Make % is the probability that the prospect will play 200+ NHL games in their career and have positive WAR

It's the same data that JFresh uses for his prospect cards but without the paywall


yeah **** ur blue squares jfresh
Alfie11, UpsideDownQue, UpsideDownQue and 1 other person a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 21 h 23
#45
retired
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: avr. 2020
Messages: 8,893
Mentions "j'aime": 4,761
Quoting: yikes
Lest we forget McGuire was super critical of Montreal selecting Carey Price as an analyst and years later picks Tyler Boucher 10th OA.


he was very critical of the avs selecting landeskog over larsson too.
yikes et Saskleaf a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 21 h 48
#46
EklundCelebriniSmith
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: sept. 2019
Messages: 10,057
Mentions "j'aime": 12,816
Quoting: DirtyDangle
he was very critical of the avs selecting landeskog over larsson too.


“Landeskog probably has never been to Cole Harbour, shame.”
A_Habs_fan, DirtyDangle et Saskleaf a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 22 h 29
#47
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2021
Messages: 14,999
Mentions "j'aime": 12,084
Quoting: Alfie11
Why does it always seem like the Sens get the pick directly after the consensus top group? Last year there was a consensus top 9, and the Sens picked 10th. This year it seems like Gauthier has muscled into the consensus top 6, leaving the Sens, once again, as the first team once the field opens at pick number 7. I just hope they go with a guy actually projected in that range this time around lol


I’m going to guess they’ll take one of Geekie/Kasper/Kemell
Saskleaf a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 22 h 36
#48
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: août 2020
Messages: 9,527
Mentions "j'aime": 8,968
Quoting: Db1899
I’m going to guess they’ll take one of Geekie/Kasper/Kemell

If we take Geekie I’m becoming a Red Wings fan
yikes, LeafsFanForSomeReason, A_Habs_fan and 1 other person a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 23 h 24
#49
EklundCelebriniSmith
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: sept. 2019
Messages: 10,057
Mentions "j'aime": 12,816
Quoting: Alfie11
If we take Geekie I’m becoming a Red Wings fan


Quoting: Db1899
I’m going to guess they’ll take one of Geekie/Kasper/Kemell


If the Sens take Geekie over Kemell I’d honestly fold the franchise. Just kill the dead animal early, put it out of its misery.
Alfie11 et Saskleaf a aimé ceci.
1 juill. 2022 à 23 h 50
#50
Avatar de l'utilisateur
Rejoint: janv. 2020
Messages: 6,673
Mentions "j'aime": 5,201
Quoting: Alfie11
If we take Geekie I’m becoming a Red Wings fan


Please do. I don't like to take shots at a fanbase, but it seems to be the popular opinion that the Red Wings community on here is really lacking reasonable people.
Alfie11, Saskleaf et Tintin a aimé ceci.
 
To create a post please Login or S'inscrire
Question:
Options:
Ajouter une option
Soumettre le sondage