Forums/Armchair-GM

Same goal Different Strategy

Créé par: Sagecoll
Date de création initiale: 17 juin 2022
Publié: 28 juin 2022
Équipe: 2022-23 Rangers de New York
Explications
General Concept: In spite of advancing well into the playoffs primarily on the back of elite goaltending and special teams (Similar to the mid 2010's AV run squads), Rangers 5v5 play was very poor. They were bottom 5 in the league in several 5v5 metrics measuring possession scoring chances, etc.

From the data tracking and video tape it became clear that most of the problems were starting from the back end and in transition. NYR were one of the worst in the league at conceding the blue line, had the 2nd most zone clears in the league, and were towards the bottom of the league in terms of exiting the zone with control and entering the offensive zone with control.
In practice, what that looks like (which should be all too familiar to Ranger fans) is the opposition easily getting into our zone, firing off a bunch of shots, Igor doing heroic work to keep them out of our goal, and a dman chipping the puck out to center for the same thing to happen all over again.
The fix is pretty simple tbh, revamp the back end to feature Dmen who can handle the puck under pressure and move it with control. As well as replacing the bottom 6 with players who can also control the puck effectively while doing all the stuff you'd expect a 4th line to do. I think this roster accomplishes that.


Trade Rationale:
1) Lindgren and Sanheim with extension value is pretty comparable. Lindgren also fits the Torts mold a bit better. Goodrow vs. Laughton is also pretty close, Laughton brings a bit more offensively. Goodrow brings more flexibility in the lineup and positionally, he's been healthier and has considerably more playoff experience. Reaves evens out the edges.
2) Buffalo needs some goaltending, Georgiev's record as a starter is very impressive. This avoids the need for a big swing on a UFA goaltender that almost never works out. Cost avoids any significant draft picks or prospects for Buffalo. Mutually beneficial.
3, Arizona avoids a large portion of Schmaltz's heavily back loaded contract and gets a better D prospect than they'd get for just about anyone not named Chychrun. They open up even more cap space so ownership can take on more dead weight for their never ending tank.
4. Trouba goes back to the midwest and Burke/Hexstall gets the big all situations Dman they crave. Price is actually a bit below market value -> This is less than what Risto got. Seattle takes on less than a mil in retention to go get what for them is a top 6 winger. Pitt still has enough cap left at that point to keep at least one of Tang/Malkin if not both.
5. Chicago avoids having to send a sweetener to take Toews and nets a 2nd and Blais who slides into their 3rd line in the process. This is a bit more than what Keith got. Additional picks and stuff to make cap work.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
Kakko, Kaapo22 450 000 $
Kapanen, Kasperi33 500 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
Lindgren, Charlie2950 000 $
Larsson, Johan11 250 000 $
Kulak, Brett32 850 000 $
Transactions
1.
NYR
  1. Sanheim, Travis
  2. Laughton, Scott
Détails additionnels:
Sanheim signs ~5.5mil x 6 extension.
PHI
  1. Lindgren, Ryan
  2. Goodrow, Barclay
  3. Reaves, Ryan
2.
NYR
  1. Asplund, Rasmus
  2. 2022 4e round pick (BUF)
BUF
  1. Georgiev, Alexandar [Droits de RFA]
3.
NYR
  1. Schmaltz, Nick (1 850 000 $ retained)
ARI
  1. Schneider, Braden
  2. 2022 4e round pick (BUF)
4.
NYR
  1. Kapanen, Kasperi [Droits de RFA]
  2. 2022 1e round pick (PIT)
Détails additionnels:
3way Deal:

NYR gets: Pit 1st + Will Borgen
Pitt gets: Trouba (750k retained by Seattle)
Seattle gets: Kapanen
PIT
  1. Trouba, Jacob
5.
NYR
  1. Borgen, William
SEA
  1. Kapanen, Kasperi
6.
NYR
  1. Toews, Jonathan (5 250 000 $ retained)
CHI
  1. Blais, Samuel
  2. Nemeth, Patrik
  3. 2024 2e round pick (NYR)
  4. 2023 6e round pick (WPG)
Rachats de contrats
  • Kevin Shattenkirk: 1 433 333 $
  • Dan Girardi: 1 111 111 $
  • Anthony Deangelo: 883 334 $
  • Brad Richards: 0 $
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2022
Logo de PIT
Logo de NYR
Logo de WPG
Logo de NYR
Logo de NYR
2023
Logo de NYR
Logo de NYR
Logo de NYR
Logo de NYR
2024
Logo de NYR
Logo de NYR
Logo de NYR
Logo de NYR
Logo de NYR
Logo de NYR
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2282 500 000 $79 024 802 $0 $4 100 000 $3 475 198 $

Formation

Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de NYR
Kreider, Chris
6 500 000 $
AG
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo de NYR
Zibanejad, Mika
8 500 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo de NYR
Lafrenière, Alexis
925 000 $
AD, AG
RFA - 1
Logo de NYR
Panarin, Artemi
11 642 857 $
AG
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo de ARI
Schmaltz, Nick
4 000 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 4
Logo de NYR
Kakko, Kaapo
2 450 000 $
AD
RFA - 2
Logo de NYR
Chytil, Filip
2 300 000 $
C, AG
RFA - 1
Logo de CHI
Toews, Jonathan
5 250 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo de NYR
Kravtsov, Vitali
875 000 $
AD
RFA - 1
Larsson, Johan
1 250 000 $
C, AG
UFA
Logo de PHI
Laughton, Scott
3 000 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 4
Logo de BUF
Asplund, Rasmus
825 000 $
AG, C
RFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de NYR
Miller, K'Andre
925 000 $
DG
RFA - 1
Logo de NYR
Fox, Adam
9 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 7
Logo de NYR
Shesterkin, Igor
5 666 667 $
G
UFA - 3
Logo de PHI
Sanheim, Travis
4 675 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de NYR
Lundkvist, Nils
925 000 $
DD
RFA - 2
Lindgren, Charlie
950 000 $
G
UFA - 3
Kulak, Brett
2 850 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 4
Logo de SEA
Borgen, William
900 000 $
DD
RFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de NYR
Jones, Zachary
925 000 $
DG
RFA - 1
Logo de NYR
Hunt, Dryden
762 500 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1

Unités spéciales

Avantage numérique 1
Zibanejad, M.
Panarin, A.
Lafrenière, A.
Kreider, C.
Fox, A.
Avantage numérique 2
Schmaltz, N.
Toews, J.
Chytil, F.
Kakko, K.
Lundkvist, N.
Infériorité numérique 1
Laughton, S.
Asplund, R.
Miller, K.
Fox, A.
Infériorité numérique 2
Kreider, C.
Larsson, J.
Kulak, B.
Borgen, W.

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28 juin à 14 h 16
#1
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Buffalo doesn't even look at the phone
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28 juin à 14 h 18
#2
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Easy decline from the sabres. "Georgiev's record as a starter is very impressive" but his stats aren't.
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28 juin à 14 h 20
#3
Funksoljah
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Georgievs record is far from impressive, and treating Asplund like a toss in is silly. Asplund is an important player for the Sabres and is one of their best defensive forwards, they won't deal him for a goalie who wasn't much better than the 6 others they had to play this past season. Asplund is more valuable to Buffalo than to another team.
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28 juin à 14 h 31
#4
who? what?
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Philly is definitely out on this. I get the Laughton/Goodrow comparison. No way Lindgren and Reaves equals Sanheim.
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28 juin à 14 h 36
#5
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Quoting: Funksoljah
Georgievs record is far from impressive, and treating Asplund like a toss in is silly. Asplund is an important player for the Sabres and is one of their best defensive forwards, they won't deal him for a goalie who wasn't much better than the 6 others they had to play this past season. Asplund is more valuable to Buffalo than to another team.


If he was a toss in, the pick would be a 2nd. Again, as a starter (under 4 days rest) Georgiev's numbers were pretty great and have been any time he's in that scenario for his entire career. Asplund's no throw in, but to act like Georgiev doesn't immediately slot into #1 on the depth chart displays a lack of understanding of the position.
28 juin à 14 h 42
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Quoting: smkruzik
Philly is definitely out on this. I get the Laughton/Goodrow comparison. No way Lindgren and Reaves equals Sanheim.


Lindgren and Sanheim value around the league is honestly pretty comparable. Lindgren having 2 years of being cost controlled as an RFA while Sanheim is essentially a rental takes away any disparity there is in value.
28 juin à 14 h 44
#7
Funksoljah
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Quoting: Sagecoll
If he was a toss in, the pick would be a 2nd. Again, as a starter (under 4 days rest) Georgiev's numbers were pretty great and have been any time he's in that scenario for his entire career. Asplund's no throw in, but to act like Georgiev doesn't immediately slot into #1 on the depth chart displays a lack of understanding of the position.


Buffalo has 3 very young highly touted goalies in the system right now in UPL, Levi and Portillo. They are looking at probably platooning UPL in the next season or 2 with another goalie who can be a mentor until Levi or Portillo are ready to make the jump to the NHL. This means they need a bridge starter and eventual 1B for a few years based upon the comments Kevyn Adams has made about not having roadblocks. Georgiev does not fill that need for the Sabres. Sounds like you have a lack of understanding of the position from the Sabres perspective.
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28 juin à 14 h 53
#8
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Flyers easily decline this.
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28 juin à 14 h 56
#9
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Quoting: Funksoljah
Buffalo has 3 very young highly touted goalies in the system right now in UPL, Levi and Portillo. They are looking at probably platooning UPL in the next season or 2 with another goalie who can be a mentor until Levi or Portillo are ready to make the jump to the NHL. This means they need a bridge starter and eventual 1B for a few years based upon the comments Kevyn Adams has made about not having roadblocks. Georgiev does not fill that need for the Sabres. Sounds like you have a lack of understanding of the position from the Sabres perspective.


I can't really think of a better player to be a bridge starter/ 1B than Georgiev. Campbell / Husso / Kuemper will all demand significant long term cap commitments (5+ mil x 5+ years). Fleury behind a similar development roster in Chicago put up the same numbers as Tokarski - so unless this is a tanking year and UPL is making 60 starts after next season that's not an option. And every other UFA goaltender has less and worse experience than Georgiev. He's kinda the perfect option for you.
28 juin à 15 h 6
#10
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Quoting: Sagecoll
I can't really think of a better player to be a bridge starter/ 1B than Georgiev. Campbell / Husso / Kuemper will all demand significant long term cap commitments (5+ mil x 5+ years). Fleury behind a similar development roster in Chicago put up the same numbers as Tokarski - so unless this is a tanking year and UPL is making 60 starts after next season that's not an option. And every other UFA goaltender has less and worse experience than Georgiev. He's kinda the perfect option for you.


Do you have actual numbers/link to numbers that prove Georgiev is good with less than 4 days rest? It just sounds like a cherry picked stat. All the goaltending analytics say he's not very good. Why would the Sabres take the risk? Better yet, why would they trade a guy who was a top 5 defensive forward, an archetype they desperately need more of, for what is at best a massive risk based on limited data that allegedly says he's good with less than 4 days rest?
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28 juin à 15 h 10
#11
Shibbal18
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Asplund is worth 4x what Georgiev is worth. hard pass
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28 juin à 15 h 11
#12
Shibbal18
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Quoting: Sagecoll
If he was a toss in, the pick would be a 2nd. Again, as a starter (under 4 days rest) Georgiev's numbers were pretty great and have been any time he's in that scenario for his entire career. Asplund's no throw in, but to act like Georgiev doesn't immediately slot into #1 on the depth chart displays a lack of understanding of the position.


Georgiev is not a number 1 goalie in the NHL
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28 juin à 15 h 18
#13
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Quoting: Stadel
Do you have actual numbers/link to numbers that prove Georgiev is good with less than 4 days rest? It just sounds like a cherry picked stat. All the goaltending analytics say he's not very good. Why would the Sabres take the risk? Better yet, why would they trade a guy who was a top 5 defensive forward, an archetype they desperately need more of, for what is at best a massive risk based on limited data that allegedly says he's good with less than 4 days rest?


I gotta dig around where I find it. Feel free to scope out his game logs / GSAx numbers if you like. But he does seem to have a less risky track records than other non-starters. 120+ GP almost all while under age 26 with a positive GSAx dwarfs most of the competition. I think there's like less than 25 goalies in the past 15 years with those kind of metrics. And the track record of former Benoit Allaire goalies is pretty stellar between Raanta and Talbot.
28 juin à 15 h 19
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Flyers would need much much more to accept that. Only interesting piece is Lindgren, and Sanheim's better anyways
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28 juin à 15 h 26
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Quoting: Sagecoll
I gotta dig around where I find it. Feel free to scope out his game logs / GSAx numbers if you like. But he does seem to have a less risky track records than other non-starters. 120+ GP almost all while under age 26 with a positive GSAx dwarfs most of the competition. I think there's like less than 25 goalies in the past 15 years with those kind of metrics. And the track record of former Benoit Allaire goalies is pretty stellar between Raanta and Talbot.


His 5v5 GSAx this year was -6.8

20-21: -7.2

19-20: -0.1

So idk where you got positive gsax from. This doesn't strike me as a less risky option. Certainly not a sure enough bet for the Sabres to move assets. Unless its a legit long term solution where the reward out weighs the risk, they're just gunna sign someone for a year or two and wait on UPL, Levi and maybe whoever they draft this year. Or just wait a year or two till they're in a position to trade for a legit starter.

Edit: I searched on twitter and found a tweet for an 11 game sample this year where georgiev was a starter and the numbers were good. Aside from the fact that only 4 of those games were against playoff teams, I could probably find an 11 game sample where craig anderson looks like a vezina candidate. Its just not enough to go on to move assets for Georgiev. Definitely not someone like Asplund either, thats the part most sabres fans will have an issue with.
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28 juin à 15 h 36
#16
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Quoting: Stadel
His 5v5 GSAx this year was -6.8

20-21: -7.2

19-20: -0.1

So idk where you got positive gsax from. This doesn't strike me as a less risky option. Certainly not a sure enough bet for the Sabres to move assets. Unless its a legit long term solution where the reward out weighs the risk, they're just gunna sign someone for a year or two and wait on UPL, Levi and maybe whoever they draft this year. Or just wait a year or two till they're in a position to trade for a legit starter.

Edit: I searched on twitter and found a tweet for an 11 game sample this year where georgiev was a starter and the numbers were good. Aside from the fact that only 4 of those games were against playoff teams, I could probably find an 11 game sample where craig anderson looks like a vezina candidate. Its just not enough to go on to move assets for Georgiev. Definitely not someone like Asplund either, thats the part most sabres fans will have an issue with.


Why would you isolate 5v5 when talking about GSAx? We do that with skaters to account for differences in deployment but not with goaltenders... The number is all strengths.

I understand Asplund is pretty prized and if the preference is to send a 2nd that's fine too!
28 juin à 15 h 38
#17
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Why would you isolate 5v5 when talking about GSAx? We do that with skaters to account for differences in deployment but not with goaltenders... The number is all strengths.

I understand Asplund is pretty prized and if the preference is to send a 2nd that's fine too!


Because the majority of the game is played at 5v5? what do i care if georgiev is great 3v3 if we can never get there cause he's swiss cheese throughout 90% of regulation?

Edit: lol i just checked and actually those numbers are all situations, not 5v5

5v5 numbers:

21-22: +0.8

20-21: -5.7

19-20: -0.3

So better than all situations, but still kinda *ss . Bottom line, this isn't without major risk and not the kind of goalie a smart team will send a second rounder for.
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28 juin à 15 h 38
#18
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Quoting: Xertalz
Flyers would need much much more to accept that. Only interesting piece is Lindgren, and Sanheim's better anyways


So we have a pretty even swap between Goodrow and Laughton. And we have an interesting piece in Lindgren who is totally cost controlled while Sanheim is a rental and the Rangers are adding.

Sounds pretty even to the rest of us!
28 juin à 15 h 41
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Quoting: Sagecoll
So we have a pretty even swap between Goodrow and Laughton. And we have an interesting piece in Lindgren who is totally cost controlled while Sanheim is a rental and the Rangers are adding.

Sounds pretty even to the rest of us!


Goodrow and Laughton are absolutely not even. Laughton's younger, cheaper, and scores at a better rate on a worse team.
Ryan Reaves doesn't count as adding. He's not worth anything.
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28 juin à 15 h 44
#20
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Quoting: Sagecoll
So we have a pretty even swap between Goodrow and Laughton. And we have an interesting piece in Lindgren who is totally cost controlled while Sanheim is a rental and the Rangers are adding.

Sounds pretty even to the rest of us!


Wait is this for real? I thought this was a troll post. Sanheim is = to Lindgren because of contracts? I gotta get off this site. Why would you want Sanheim if Lindgren is so good and cost controlled? Doesn’t NYR have as many issues with the cap as PHI?
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28 juin à 15 h 48
#21
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Quoting: Stadel
Because the majority of the game is played at 5v5? what do i care if georgiev is great 3v3 if we can never get there cause he's swiss cheese throughout 90% of regulation?


Right but that doesn't control for anything... A goalie plays the entire game. Why would you break it down by game state? I mean a goalie who's above average at 5v5 but well below average on the PK isn't any better than the inverse. Goals are allowed and xGA occurs at a rate of 3:1 on the PK vs. 5v5 play.

Obviously it makes sense for a skater because special teams schemes and deployments vary from team to team and don't have statistical reliability on the individual level. But that's not the case with goalies.
28 juin à 15 h 50
#22
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Right but that doesn't control for anything... A goalie plays the entire game. Why would you break it down by game state? I mean a goalie who's above average at 5v5 but well below average on the PK isn't any better than the inverse. Goals are allowed and xGA occurs at a rate of 3:1 on the PK vs. 5v5 play.

Obviously it makes sense for a skater because special teams schemes and deployments vary from team to team and don't have statistical reliability on the individual level. But that's not the case with goalies.


Check my edit to the post you replied to lol. His all situation numbers are worse than his 5v5.
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28 juin à 15 h 52
#23
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Quoting: radtad
Wait is this for real? I thought this was a troll post. Sanheim is = to Lindgren because of contracts? I gotta get off this site. Why would you want Sanheim if Lindgren is so good and cost controlled? Doesn’t NYR have as many issues with the cap as PHI?


Different type of player. We need a bit more dynamic puck movement and we concede the blue line continuously almost by design. Lindgren's a much better blue line defender and more conservative puck mover. Samheim's worse in his own zone and a bit riskier with the puck. Both of those things favor Lindgren in a Torts style system where risky play gets you benched and blue line defense is stressed.
28 juin à 15 h 56
#24
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Quoting: Xertalz
Goodrow and Laughton are absolutely not even. Laughton's younger, cheaper, and scores at a better rate on a worse team.
Ryan Reaves doesn't count as adding. He's not worth anything.


Stretching the dollar pretty far there. Difference in cap is less then the league minimum, age difference is one year. Laughton's injury history honestly puts a damper on both of those. And the only scoring he's doing at a better rate is on secondary assists simply by being on the ice with Konecny and JVR and Lindblom as opposed to say Kevin Rooney.

They're pretty close.
28 juin à 16 h 1
#25
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Stretching the dollar pretty far there. Difference in cap is less then the league minimum, age difference is one year. Laughton's injury history honestly puts a damper on both of those. And the only scoring he's doing at a better rate is on secondary assists simply by being on the ice with Konecny and JVR and Lindblom as opposed to say Kevin Rooney.

They're pretty close.


If they're that close, just keep Goodrow then.
A one-for-one swap of Lindgren for Sanheim makes more sense anyways, although the Flyers would likely decline it
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