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Jarmo puts his foot on the gas

Créé par: pocke
Équipe: 2022-23 Blue Jackets de Columbus
Date de création initiale: 26 juin 2022
Publié: 26 juin 2022
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Ho boy does Jarmo make some swings. He may be the most entertaining part of the Blue Jackets. These exciting moves make it easy for Laine to sign a sweetheart deal, but we've penciled in $9million so we don't shoot ourselves in the foot.

We probably sign Meier and Gavrikov to extensions. I can see $8mx8 for Meier, $4mx6 for Gavrikov. I can see Nyquist for 1 or 2 years. Maybe ~$3-4 million.

23-24 offseason: ~$17 million to re-sign Peeke and Chinakov. Peeke at $3million x 2 years, Chinakov probably less than 2 unless he really pops. Still have cap space to work.

24-25 This gives us plenty to sign Johnson, Sillinger and Marchenko. Roslovic's contract will be up. He will be pencilled in to be replaced by one of the previous two. Logan Cooley's arrival on an ELC cement's CBJ's rise to contention. If he hasn't demanded anything yet, Johnson or Sillinger should be able to hold place at the top of the lineup until he's ready.

25-26 they will have plenty of decisions to make. Chychrun's next contract could be a big one considering Werenski's precedent. We can either make moves to fit him or hope Peeke/Ceulemans/Blankenburg have stepped up big time. Hopefully there's some cap movement by this time as well.

Personally, there's a lot of risk here. Getting a high 2023 pick, and trying to make a play for Meier or a Tampa RFA after the season, are probably the safest bets, but putting good players on this team can get important momentum for this club.

Here, CBJ can even afford to put Johnson and Chinakov in the minors and fill out the bottom of the roster with more game-ready players. This should help them develop chemistry and give them some breathing room to play offense without worrying too much about structure. I can easily see them both earning roster spots, but this team may need time to gel before attacking the playoffs. If Chychrun and Meier come as advertised we should very much be in wildcard contention.

A bottom 6 of:

Foudy - Jenner - Danforth

Robinson - Kuraly - Gaunce

should certainly get the job done.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
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Transactions
1.
CBJ
  1. Chychrun, Jakob
  2. Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (COL)
  3. Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (ARI)
Détails additionnels:
Columbus get a defenseman with size, a shot and the 3OA to get Logan Cooley.

The second pick could easily be 34 or 36 instead.
ARI
  1. Bean, Jake
  2. Bemström, Emil [Droits de RFA]
  3. Boqvist, Adam [Droits de RFA]
  4. Voracek, Jakub
  5. Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (CHI)
  6. Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (CBJ)
  7. Choix de 2e ronde en 2022 (CBJ)
Détails additionnels:
CBJ get the best assets in the deal but give up a large amount of high quality assets. The asking price for Chychrun was rumored to be “...a young player, a high-end prospect plus a first-round pick.”

Boqvist is a high quality 1st round asset with a ceiling just as high as Chychruns. Arguably they can be very similar assets but Boqvist is unproven and has struggled in the D zone.

Emil Bemstrom is a young NHL player with more to prove. He led the SHL in goals and was named the top prospect in the SHL in 18/19. He struggled to find playing time under Tortorella and was injured last season but his defensive game looks excellent and his shot is still very much there. A strong breakout candidate. His slot could be occupied by Yegor Chinakov, who could have a higher ceiling but is less NHL ready.

The value differential (based on GSVA draft pick chart) of the 3rd overall vs the 6th and 12th is around 3 GSVA which is equivalent to the 29th overall pick. We've mitigated this value a bit by converting it into trading down from 31/32 to 44 (a value difference of .9 GSVA). This isn't mandatory, but if not done means one or both of the next 2 players will not be included.

Here, Jakob Voracek and Jake Bean make up the value difference. Jake V will bring playmaking, leadership and a lighthearted attitude to Arizona as a complement to Keller and Schmaltz on the top line and help towards the cap floor. Jake Bean was recently worth a second round pick (part of Seth Jones trade) and has very promising numbers on offense. He needs a steady defenseman next to him but projects to pair well with Timmins or Dysin Mayo.

Arizona gets 6/12 where they could certainly get some high quality players at the cost of a single higher quality player. They need as much quality as they can get. One of Gauthier, Jiricek or Savoie will be available at 6 and then someone of much higher quality at 12 than would have fallen to 27.
2.
CBJ
  1. Meier, Timo
Détails additionnels:
CBJ get a top tier power forward with the cap space and surrounding talent to convince him to stay long term.
SJS
  1. Bjorkstrand, Oliver
  2. Texier, Alexandre
Détails additionnels:
San Jose gets a neutral zone fiend with really strong even strength numbers and a hard, accurate wrist shot. His cost certainty is incredibly good and he's signed for a few years. With creative players around him, expect to see his point production really pop. He gives San Jose wiggle room with the cap while replacing some of Timo's even strength driving.

They get a young and hard developing power forward in Alexandre Texier. He is already a very functional bottom 6 players and as soon as she connects the dots his cheeky skill in the neutral zone will translate to getting off the wall and in small spaces around the net. If he hits, there's no reason he can't be Meier-lite.

If it makes the deal happen, CBJ could also afford to part with a young D prospect like Svozil or Knazko, or even Jake Bean depending. Furthermore, I'm sure they could be convinced to give up a Bemstrom or Chinakov, though an extension would be required or very likely and it would be a tough ask.
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
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26 juin 2022 à 20 h 3
#1
MisstheWhalers
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I like Meier but I think the Jackets are better off with Bjorkstrand and Texier.

There's just way too much going on in that Arizona trade for me to want to try and make sense of it.. lol
26 juin 2022 à 20 h 8
#2
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I think the Meier trade is interesting but if they're going to move Timo it is a signal that a rebuild is coming. They'd likely only move him for picks + prospects
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26 juin 2022 à 20 h 9
#3
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Sharks don’t consider that deal, not close for me honestly
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26 juin 2022 à 20 h 21
#4
Benzino204
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Does Columbus even need to do this?

Maybe some small pieces need to be added, but imo they just need to wait for the full development of guys like Sillinger and Johnson to finish and they're good to go.
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26 juin 2022 à 20 h 21
#5
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Quoting: MisstheWhalers
I like Meier but I think the Jackets are better off with Bjorkstrand and Texier.

There's just way too much going on in that Arizona trade for me to want to try and make sense of it.. lol


Yeah it looks like a lot. You're looking at sort of 2 separate trades but with tied values.

The core of the trade would be:

Chychrun for Boqvist, Bemstrom + Pick Value Difference

3OA for 6OA + 12OA. Technically, from the GSVA value chart 6OA + 12OA is worth more than the 3rd overall by the equivalent value of the 29th overall pick.

The asking price for Chychrun was young roster player, quality prospect and a 1st. This gets you a decent young roster player, a very high quality prospect, and a low 1st.

The rest is just bumping values. Don't have to include the Colorado first trade down to 44. Voracek and Bean can be included for salary and value adjustment.
26 juin 2022 à 20 h 25
#6
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Quoting: Benzino204
Does Columbus even need to do this?

Maybe some small pieces need to be added, but imo they just need to wait for the full development of guys like Sillinger and Johnson to finish and they're good to go.


Need to? Not necessarily. Jarmo talked about making trades for roster players this offseason though, so it's a hint. He also wants to add size and meanness. Meier and Chychrun represent upgrades over current roster players in both of those areas. We also have too many wings on the roster and they will be unable to develop unless they have room to play. Chinakov getting scratched for another year would be a waste. Bemstrom and Foudy are coming off of injury and will need playing time. Marchenko is coming over and will need playing time if his comparables (Buchnevich) are accurate at all. Johnson could need playing time as well.

Bean, Boqvist, Peeke and Blankenburg are all still developing. Chychrun is more of a sure thing. This helps us go forward with a more stable D corps which will in turn help our developing fowards.
26 juin 2022 à 20 h 25
#7
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Quoting: Benzino204
Does Columbus even need to do this?

Maybe some small pieces need to be added, but imo they just need to wait for the full development of guys like Sillinger and Johnson to finish and they're good to go.


It's a weird approach considering where they finished, but bringing back almost the same roster is probably the best thing they could do. There are so many young guys that seem to be just on the cusp of establishing themselves and it would be a shame to trade them away right before they get there.

Like you said, let them play and then fill in around them when they show where the holes are.
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26 juin 2022 à 21 h 8
#8
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Quoting: dk325
It's a weird approach considering where they finished, but bringing back almost the same roster is probably the best thing they could do. There are so many young guys that seem to be just on the cusp of establishing themselves and it would be a shame to trade them away right before they get there.

Like you said, let them play and then fill in around them when they show where the holes are.


Imo the players currently on CBJ are not close to Stanley Cup winning and they won't likely be soon. We don't have super-elite talent in key positions like cup contenders do.

CBJ finished "close" to the playoffs last year but were still 19 points out. Growth from some guys isn't going to get them there, especially not with the center core of New Jersey and the rising talent on the New York Rangers, and especially with the aging of Nyquist and Voracek. CBJ overperformed last year but their offense doesn't look inherently sustainable and their defense was quite bad. I am not sure Johnson/Sillinger is the equivalent of Point/Stamkos, Crosby/Malkin, MacKinnon/Kadri, Backstrom/Kuznetsov, Bergeron/Krejci, Matthews/Tavares. Laine doesn't drive play like Kucherov, Kane, Ovechkin, Marner, Tarasenko.

Imo the pieces the major pieces I moved on from, Bjorkstrand and Boqvist, are being upgraded at cost of winger depth. Not every prospect is going to hit their ceiling and this strategy gives us some insurance while buying playing time for Chinakhov, Johnson, Marchenko and gets us Cooley. I think it's more likely we package winger depth with a good player and improve our team than it is package winger depth with winger depth and get something good.
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26 juin 2022 à 21 h 14
#9
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That Chychrun trade might be 1 piece too big, like take out Bean or the 2nd
Also don't think that fetches Meier, or they'll want high quality future pieces, not ready players like that other person mentioned.
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26 juin 2022 à 21 h 45
#10
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Quoting: AndrewPawlack
That Chychrun trade might be 1 piece too big, like take out Bean or the 2nd
Also don't think that fetches Meier, or they'll want high quality future pieces, not ready players like that other person mentioned.


Can't tell what they'll think of Voracek. I threw in Bean + 2nd thinking that would let us get the late 1st back (I think still need to add a touch for Chychrun), but obviously if we can get it for less we go for it.

Can't really predict what they're going to do, but watching Meier's exit interview was a lot like watching Bob's before he left. Paired with his Monstrous QO means you better be sure you're going to be in the playoffs or move him before you have no leverage. If they want high end futures I'm sure someone has more assets than CBJ, unless they can somehow swing AZ 3 without giving up 6&12, or just don't go for it altogether. I can see NJD going for 2OA-- or something if they are even considering Josh Anderson.
26 juin 2022 à 21 h 48
#11
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Quoting: pocke
Imo the players currently on CBJ are not close to Stanley Cup winning and they won't likely be soon. We don't have super-elite talent in key positions like cup contenders do.

CBJ finished "close" to the playoffs last year but were still 19 points out. Growth from some guys isn't going to get them there, especially not with the center core of New Jersey and the rising talent on the New York Rangers, and especially with the aging of Nyquist and Voracek. CBJ overperformed last year but their offense doesn't look inherently sustainable and their defense was quite bad. I am not sure Johnson/Sillinger is the equivalent of Point/Stamkos, Crosby/Malkin, MacKinnon/Kadri, Backstrom/Kuznetsov, Bergeron/Krejci, Matthews/Tavares. Laine doesn't drive play like Kucherov, Kane, Ovechkin, Marner, Tarasenko.

Imo the pieces the major pieces I moved on from, Bjorkstrand and Boqvist, are being upgraded at cost of winger depth. Not every prospect is going to hit their ceiling and this strategy gives us some insurance while buying playing time for Chinakhov, Johnson, Marchenko and gets us Cooley. I think it's more likely we package winger depth with a good player and improve our team than it is package winger depth with winger depth and get something good.


Imo, the idea that most prospects don't hit their ceiling is why I'd rather they held onto as much of their current under 23 group as possible. Or at least through this season where so many are just getting chances to play full time and show what they are capable of. I don't think we can really make difinitive statements about what they can be before they've really had a chance to show their talent in anything more than bottom 6 roles.
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26 juin 2022 à 21 h 57
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I agree that Sharks trade is pretty far off imo
26 juin 2022 à 22 h 6
#13
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Quoting: pocke
Can't tell what they'll think of Voracek. I threw in Bean + 2nd thinking that would let us get the late 1st back (I think still need to add a touch for Chychrun), but obviously if we can get it for less we go for it.

Can't really predict what they're going to do, but watching Meier's exit interview was a lot like watching Bob's before he left. Paired with his Monstrous QO means you better be sure you're going to be in the playoffs or move him before you have no leverage. If they want high end futures I'm sure someone has more assets than CBJ, unless they can somehow swing AZ 3 without giving up 6&12, or just don't go for it altogether. I can see NJD going for 2OA-- or something if they are even considering Josh Anderson.


considering they extended Hertl when they could've got a ton of value for him makes it seem like they are not gonna rebuild or sell much at all. They just need a goalie, depth, defense... they're pretty much where we're at but with a worse goaltending situation and not as big of prospect bank as us, but with their talent being higher end and more star studded; neither team looks like a contender without a major move or 2 like this, but that's not enough for Meier
26 juin 2022 à 22 h 44
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Doesnt get the convo started on Meier. Only an asset like 2nd overall does
27 juin 2022 à 9 h 18
#15
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Quoting: AndrewPawlack
considering they extended Hertl when they could've got a ton of value for him makes it seem like they are not gonna rebuild or sell much at all. They just need a goalie, depth, defense... they're pretty much where we're at but with a worse goaltending situation and not as big of prospect bank as us, but with their talent being higher end and more star studded; neither team looks like a contender without a major move or 2 like this, but that's not enough for Meier


RIght, I doubt they are rebuilding either, but they are a really bad team. They aren't close to the playoffs in the weakest division. Karlsson, Couture, Burns and Vlasic are only getting older. Meier's exit interview did not look positive for the team. I am not sure Eklund and Bordeleau are getting them over the hump. If they choose not to rebuild that's fine, but they'll have to clear cap and get better, and you're not doing that with high picks in this draft or without taking risks.
27 juin 2022 à 9 h 26
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Quoting: dk325
Imo, the idea that most prospects don't hit their ceiling is why I'd rather they held onto as much of their current under 23 group as possible. Or at least through this season where so many are just getting chances to play full time and show what they are capable of. I don't think we can really make difinitive statements about what they can be before they've really had a chance to show their talent in anything more than bottom 6 roles.


There's not any more space this year than last year, in fact there's less because Johnson and Marchenko are arriving. Some of these prospects have to get moved or their value is going to be dramatically less because we have wasted a lot of their development years. Bemstrom and Texier already look like this, though a bit of that is injury luck.

The top 6 isn't going to look much different this year compared to last and we're still having Roslovic work on his game. We just don't have enough roster spots to have Johnson, Sillinger, Marchenko, Chinakov, Bemstrom, Texier and Foudy all playing time. If the plan is go for a high pick that's fine, but it is not what I was going for with this roster. Even still Jarmo has mentioned trading for roster players and attempting to upgrade size and strength, waiting for prospects doesn't accomplish that.
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27 juin 2022 à 11 h 53
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3 for 6 + 12 is fair (not more), but considering Arizona has 7 picks in the top 45, it most likely isn't something we're doing. The Chychrun trade is really bad for Arizona, both the value and the fit of the assets.

I do believe there is a deal to be done between the two teams. I'd prefer 6th OA for Chychrun, but don't think Columbus does that. A deal around 12th + Cuelemans + roster player is something to discuss, as a base.
27 juin 2022 à 14 h 0
#18
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Quoting: Kartana
3 for 6 + 12 is fair (not more), but considering Arizona has 7 picks in the top 45, it most likely isn't something we're doing. The Chychrun trade is really bad for Arizona, both the value and the fit of the assets.

I do believe there is a deal to be done between the two teams. I'd prefer 6th OA for Chychrun, but don't think Columbus does that. A deal around 12th + Cuelemans + roster player is something to discuss, as a base.


6+12 is worth more than the 3 alone based on the work done for Average Draft Pick Position GSVA. In terms of that sheet, 6+12 = 3 + 29. I can see Arizona wanting the more premium asset for Cooley, but Gauthier/Savoie/Jiricek + the 12 could help an org still a bit starved for assets. Just as well, the top tier starts to fall off at 12 so you're getting 2 picks within that. AZ having a lot of picks certainly makes the deal harder, but I think there's an angle that still works considering the upgrade.

If you'd like 12 + Ceulemans+ I think that's a deal that CBJ can make very easily. We don't have much as far as roster players for trade. Jenner isn't really tradeable and has an NTC. Nyquist and Voracek could be dealt for sure. Otherwise you're looking at Bean/Peeke or a roster playing prospect like Texier or Bemstrom. If CBJ get Chychrun and get to keep Boqvist I think they'd be happy to part with a further off prospect. Bjorkstrand and Roslovic have just signed deals and likely are too good to also be parting with the 12.
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28 juin 2022 à 1 h 52
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Quoting: pocke
6+12 is worth more than the 3 alone based on the work done for Average Draft Pick Position GSVA. In terms of that sheet, 6+12 = 3 + 29. I can see Arizona wanting the more premium asset for Cooley, but Gauthier/Savoie/Jiricek + the 12 could help an org still a bit starved for assets. Just as well, the top tier starts to fall off at 12 so you're getting 2 picks within that. AZ having a lot of picks certainly makes the deal harder, but I think there's an angle that still works considering the upgrade.

If you'd like 12 + Ceulemans+ I think that's a deal that CBJ can make very easily. We don't have much as far as roster players for trade. Jenner isn't really tradeable and has an NTC. Nyquist and Voracek could be dealt for sure. Otherwise you're looking at Bean/Peeke or a roster playing prospect like Texier or Bemstrom. If CBJ get Chychrun and get to keep Boqvist I think they'd be happy to part with a further off prospect. Bjorkstrand and Roslovic have just signed deals and likely are too good to also be parting with the 12.


Appreciate the answer! Good reasoning. I agree that the price is what you said for the pick swap, but every year is different and every team have own charts for respective year. Aaron Portzline had a good article in the Athletic about this a few days ago from Columbus' view. Since there is a clear top 3, I'd argue this year doesn't need an additional pick added. I do also find the appeal with those two picks.

I find it interesting you would give up Cuelemans that easily. Other CBJ fans I've talked to are more hesitant and would rather give up Boqvist. 12th + Cuelemans + is one of, if not the most, preferred deals for Chychrun for me personally. If that last piece is Texier it's a slam dunk for me, but I think Texier holds too much value for that to be fair for Columbus. Perhaps Bean is more fair. The deal could always be balanced with picks. All in all, it's potentially 2 top 4 D in Cuelemans and Korchinski/Mintyukov. It makes a lot of sense for Arizona in my mind.
pocke a aimé ceci.
28 juin 2022 à 9 h 7
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Quoting: Kartana
Appreciate the answer! Good reasoning. I agree that the price is what you said for the pick swap, but every year is different and every team have own charts for respective year. Aaron Portzline had a good article in the Athletic about this a few days ago from Columbus' view. Since there is a clear top 3, I'd argue this year doesn't need an additional pick added. I do also find the appeal with those two picks.

I find it interesting you would give up Cuelemans that easily. Other CBJ fans I've talked to are more hesitant and would rather give up Boqvist. 12th + Cuelemans + is one of, if not the most, preferred deals for Chychrun for me personally. If that last piece is Texier it's a slam dunk for me, but I think Texier holds too much value for that to be fair for Columbus. Perhaps Bean is more fair. The deal could always be balanced with picks. All in all, it's potentially 2 top 4 D in Cuelemans and Korchinski/Mintyukov. It makes a lot of sense for Arizona in my mind.


Yeah I am a bit of a Boqvist skeptic myself. A lot of his value is driven by his shooting, which isn't necessarily repeatable at the NHL level for defenseman. He has really good underlying numbers (1.13 WAR, the highest of our defenseman but with 1/2 of the ice time) but I'm not sure he has the athleticism to defend at the top level. That being said both Gavrikov and Werenski are excellent at driving play, and in the zone, so a defenseman who can shoot is a good complement. Our whole D corps was bad at exiting the zone but Boqvist was one of the worst in the NHL which exacerbated his problems in the zone. Despite his flaws he's only 21 and his ceiling is immense. Ceulemans is very exciting because of his physical tools and could be really good but there's a reason he was drafted at 24th and not higher. He may never have the offensive ceiling to be a difference maker but projects to be very solid and well rounded. Our org thinks he looks a lot like a Seth Jones-lite. I can see why fans wouldn't want to give him up considering he is nothing but potential at the moment but I think it's an oversight to value him over Boqvist. Our signing of Blankenburg has a college FA also means we can deal a defense prospect on the right side. If we have Chychrun and Boqvist our O is set from the D corps. Then we have Peeke who is serviceable as a defensive defenseman and we can make it work. We could also even have Jiricek fall at 6 and we'd have Chychrun insurance.

Texier is very hard to give up for this org. They have put a lot of development in with him and he just last year found his identity as a player. He has very cheeky skill previously used for playmaking in the neutral zone that has to be converted to board battles and getting off the wall small area skill but if he puts it together he's an excellent power forward. We don't have any prospects that are as hard to play against as he is. It would be very hard to give him and the 12 up. I don't mind giving Bean up if we're getting Chychrun back. I don't mind giving Texier up if for some reason that helps us pick swap for the 3 either or if it ends in a bidding war. We'd need to target players of his kind in some other trade or through the draft.
Kartana a aimé ceci.
 
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