Why I dont believe Miller will get a massive haul

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Date de création initiale: 21 juin 2022

Publié: 21 juin 2022

Équipe: 2022-23 Canucks de Vancouver

Description

There's three reasons as to why I don't buy the idea of Miller being an asset that brings an absolutely massive haul from other teams for VAN.

Reason 1 - he's a rental. Yes, you could argue that VAN could make a Jones-esque swap with him, but the situation is a bit different between Miller and Jones. For starters, Jones was 26 when he was traded and is 27 when that major extension kicks in, while Miller is 29. For VAN to reach the value Jones got, there needs to be a massive long-term extension in place, which would kick in when he's 30. How many GMs are willing to risk signing Miller into a close-to-max term contract that will carry him until he's 37 or 38? Very few I'd wager.

Reason 2 - the year he had was a massive outlier. Throughout his career he has been a 50-60 point kind of guy with offensive upside for 70 points when things go really well. The fact that he hit almost 100 points is in itself very impressive, but also very unlikely for him to repeat. How many GMs are willing to take a chance on him doing that again, and spend a fortune on him because of it. Very few I'd wager.

Reason 3 - available roles in the long term. For a team to be seriously interested in investing on Miller, there should be an obvious need for his service and an obvious slot for him to fill. Maybe a new 2C for Colorado? How about a 1LW for Toronto? Miller would be a pitch perfect guy in these slots in the short term, but there's no way they could afford to keep him in the long-term. He would be ideally short term strengthening to a team, but there's no way they'd pay arm and leg for only 4-6 months of him. For VAN to get superb value for him, he would need to be shipped to a team where his services are needed in the long-term, but the problem is that those who could afford to give that contract for him are teams that are not competing quite yet. How many GMs would be willing to spend a large part of their future for an asset they'd ink for long-term, but would also risk wasting his prime while being on the rebuild - that could be a waste of 3-5 years of his contract in worse cases. Very few I'd wager.

To summarize - in order for VAN to get arm and leg in exchange to Miller they would need to find a GM, who's willing to take many almost idiotic risks to make his team better. Can that happen? Sure. But I don't think it would make sense.

In my opinion, VAN should just keep Miller. He has played his best hockey thus far in Vancouver, and the chances are he's not dropping in level if staying in there. I'd imagine for Miller staying shouldn't be a problem either.

Signatures de joueurs autonomes

RFA	ANS	CAP HIT
Boeser, Brock	2	7 500 000 $
Lammikko, Juho	2	1 000 000 $
Highmore, Matthew	2	950 000 $
Rathbone, Jack	1	874 125 $
Lockwood, William	2	762 500 $
DiPietro, Michael	1	750 000 $
Brisebois, Guillaume	1	750 000 $

Rachats de contrats

Braden Holtby: 1 900 000 $
Jake Virtanen: 500 000 $

Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire

Bo Horvat: 1 375 000 $ (25%)

ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGE	1E RONDE	2E RONDE	3E RONDE	4E RONDE	5E RONDE	6E RONDE	7E RONDE
2022
2023
2024

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	82 500 000 $	77 175 792 $	1 250 000 $	2 000 000 $	5 324 208 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Kuzmenko, Andrei 950 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1	Miller, J.T. 5 250 000 $ C, AG, AD UFA - 1	Podkolzin, Vasily 925 000 $ AD, AG RFA - 2
Höglander, Nils 891 667 $ AG, AD RFA - 1	Pettersson, Elias 7 350 000 $ C, AG RFA - 2	Boeser, Brock 7 500 000 $ AD UFA - 3
Pearson, Tanner 3 250 000 $ AG M-NTC UFA - 2	Horvat, Bo 4 125 000 $ C UFA - 1	Garland, Conor 4 950 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 4
Lammikko, Juho 1 000 000 $ C, AG UFA	Dickinson, Jason 2 650 000 $ C, AG UFA - 2	Highmore, Matthew 950 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Hughes, Quinn 7 850 000 $ DG UFA - 5	Schenn, Luke 850 000 $ DD UFA - 1	Demko, Thatcher 5 000 000 $ G UFA - 4
Ekman-Larsson, Oliver 7 260 000 $ DG NMC UFA - 5	Myers, Tyler 6 000 000 $ DD M-NTC UFA - 2	Martin, Spencer 762 500 $ G UFA - 2
Rathbone, Jack 874 125 $ DG RFA - 2	Dermott, Travis 1 500 000 $ DG/DD RFA - 1

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Lockwood, William 762 500 $ AD UFA - 1		Ferland, Micheal 3 500 000 $ AG, AD M-NTC UFA - 1
Dowling, Justin 750 000 $ C, AG UFA - 1		Poolman, Tucker 2 500 000 $ DD UFA - 3
Burroughs, Kyle 750 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 1

21 juin 2022 à 15 h 42

Boltsradynasty

Rejoint: juin 2022

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BRAVO!!!!!! nailed it

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21 juin 2022 à 15 h 45

vikhodush

Rejoint: mai 2017

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Agree with the sentiment. I think the return will be underwhelming based on expectations on this site.

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21 juin 2022 à 15 h 45

Juiceman

Ex Nucks fan

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When teams pay first round picks for two months of Savard and Foligno, nobody should be surprised if an actually good rental gets a massive haul. It should not be surprising at all

Patrik Allvin and Ruthford don’t seem like the kind of guys to settle for a deal either. What ever the trade is, it won’t be worse than Chytil Lundkvist and a first round pick

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21 juin 2022 à 15 h 58

BigShoots

Big Shoots

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I think we need to stop calling everything a rental. A rental is a player you pick up at or near the deadline with little to no intention of resigning. If the team trading for him isn't planning to resign him then sure the return would be lower. I think any team going in for him will do it with the intention to keep him, or at least give themselves the best option should they want to. Columbus and Carolina could make a lot of sense. Keeping him though doesn't make sense in terms of maximizing our asset. Miller's best yrs are going to come now and this team isn't ready to compete.

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21 juin 2022 à 15 h 59

justaBoss

Démarrer sujet

Rater of Value

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Quoting: Juiceman

Both of those were deadline deals though. To me it seems like, at least based on AGMs, that people want to deal Miller this offseason under the assumption that they get a huge return.

That being said, Chytil, Lundkvist and a first round pick doesn't even sound too bad to me.

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21 juin 2022 à 15 h 59

Archiv3

Rejoint: août 2020

Messages: 95

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Agree with reason 3. The only teams that make sense as far as competing through Miller prime and will have some cap space to extend him are Pitt and Col (if Col loses all of their UFA's) a dark horse could be Nash if they lose Forsberg. Also Col has a MacKinnon extension to worry about. Maybe Ott if they think they are ready to take the next step. Does 7oa for miller 1 for 1 work. Don't see how they give up much more.

Van been burned so many times by UFA's leaving for nothing they are over compensating so hard.

justaBoss a aimé ceci.

21 juin 2022 à 16 h 0

justaBoss

Démarrer sujet

Rater of Value

Rejoint: oct. 2017

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Quoting: BigShoots

I'd say rental is a player who has one year left on his contract if/when acquired. And now since re-signing conditions are being banned, the term rental has turned out more common.

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21 juin 2022 à 16 h 1

Juiceman

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Quoting: Archiv3

My hope is that we can fleece Fletcher out of the 5OA. The GM who gave up a 14OA pick and a 2023 second would likely be willing to give up a lot for a 99 point player. It also sounds like they are desperate to compete so I would count Philly as a potential destination

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21 juin 2022 à 16 h 3

lancek

Lance_Likes_Math

Rejoint: juin 2022

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While I agree most Canucks fans are over-rating his value, I think you've swung the pendulum a little too far the other way.

1. There are still GMs willing to sign older players to big deals although the trend is going away from that. Theres some old stubborn minds in this sport. I think for teams with aging cores that are not ready to tear it down he would be an attractive option.

2. I don't think its reasonable to say 2021-2022 was an outlier for him. In his 3 years as a Canuck, 2020-2021 was actually the biggest outlier and it also coincided with a very bad year for the entire team. He played a reduced role in Tampa and with NYR he was in his early 20s. I would agree if you look at his career theres some uncertainty but I wouldnt call last year an outlier and I would expect he's got at least a couple more 80-100 point seasons in him based on his trajectory, lack of injury history, and competitive nature. But changing teams, you never know.

3. I don't understand your last point, his ability to play multiple roles, both special teams units, and up and down the line up is only a benefit regardless of his age and contract status. As for the price, you already covered that in your 1st point.

To summarize, I agree that he is being overrated by some Canucks fans, although not as much as you are suggesting. I think he has quite a bit of value, however, there aren't very many good destinations for him. Boston and Washington come to mind as the most likely for me as teams that are not willing to give up trying for the SC yet, desperately need high end players at a good cap hit for this coming season, and may be able to handle his extension as well in the event that their current 1Cs in backstrom or bergeron are done.

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21 juin 2022 à 16 h 9

#10

BigShoots

Big Shoots

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Quoting: justaBoss

I'd say rental is a player who has one year left on his contract if/when acquired. And now since re-signing conditions are being banned, the term rental has turned out more common.

Why would we trade him now then if he is a rental. Might as well use him all season and then rent him. I don't agree with the season long rental. I don't think we've seen that very often where a player is traded plays a full yr and then skips town. Mostly always resign unless the fit is horrible in which case the club prob doesn't want the player anyway.

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21 juin 2022 à 16 h 11

#11

Angusc

Rejoint: mai 2022

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If Miller had term on his deal and continued to put up 90+ points, I would like to think we could trade him

21 juin 2022 à 16 h 11

#12

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Rejoint: juill. 2015

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Let's look at the market place. Contending teams that might want Miller for the short term have cap concerns. Teams with cap...generally non contenders aren't going to give up much and they still likely finish out of the playoffs. So Vancouver best value comes at TDL. You might say if a resigned Miller has value too. But if he wants too much $$$ and term, gee wouldn't that team just think they can do OK in the UFA market and not trade anything to Vancouver.

21 juin 2022 à 16 h 14

#13

Boltsradynasty

Rejoint: juin 2022

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Quoting: Juiceman

what young star came off TB'S roster for Savard? not close to the same

21 juin 2022 à 16 h 19

#14

Juiceman

Ex Nucks fan

Rejoint: juin 2021

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Quoting: Angusc

If Miller had term on his deal and continued to put up 90+ points, I would like to think we could trade him

If he had term he would have more value but I don’t think anyone can actually predict how many points he puts up in the future

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21 juin 2022 à 16 h 20

#15

Juiceman

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Quoting: Boltsradynasty

what young star came off TB'S roster for Savard? not close to the same

A rental getting overpayed? Not familiar? Happens all the time

Knuckl3s a aimé ceci.

21 juin 2022 à 16 h 23

#16

Boltsradynasty

Rejoint: juin 2022

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Quoting: Juiceman

A rental getting overpayed? Not familiar? Happens all the time

you used Savard what young talented players came off the roster none and don't see many teams giving up young talented players picks probably but like i can't see the Ranger doing a 1st Chytil Lundqvist and Kakko or something like that not happening

21 juin 2022 à 16 h 24

#17

GM69

Rejoint: juill. 2016

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Quoting: Juiceman

The last player on the type of heater that Miller was on last year that was traded as a rental was Duchene (from Ottawa to Columbus) who had 58 points in 50 games at the time of the trade (1.16 points per game). He was great on faceoffs and could play center or the wing. Throughout the rest of his career, he was a 50-70 point player. The return was Abramov (a b- prospect at the time, former 3rd rounder), Davidsson (c- prospect at the time, former 6th round pick), a 1st round pick, and a conditional 1st if he resigned. He didn't resign so essentially he was traded for Abramov, Davidsson and a 1st round pick.

I do think that he will end up getting more than the rangers gave up for Copp which was:

2022 Conditional 2nd rounder (turned into a 1st if NYR made ECF) -- 1st rounder transfers as NYR made ECF
Choice of 2022 or 2023 2nd Rounder -- (currently TBD)
Morgan Barron (b- prospect)

I think NYR have pulled Chytil from that deal at this point and replaced with a 2nd or 3rd round pick (or a lesser prospect like Robertson/Henriksson/Berard). I do believe they would've offered that deal prior to the last trade deadline.

Of course, this is all circumstantial. There are so many factors that it depends on (bidding war, Miller replicating this past years production if not traded this summer, similar players made available due to flat cap, etc).

On the overall post, I think you hit the nail on the head.

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21 juin 2022 à 16 h 25

#18

Juiceman

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Quoting: Boltsradynasty

you used Savard what young talented players came off the roster none and other than Kakko none of those are being dealt by the rangers without a get blown out of the water offer

Miller put up more points than every single player on the Rangers. Whatever player he pushes out of the lineup deserves to be pushed out. The only player that should be prioritized over Miller is Panarin and Kreider.

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21 juin 2022 à 16 h 27

#19

Boltsradynasty

Rejoint: juin 2022

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Quoting: Juiceman

on an outlier year when he goes UFA after I HOPE DRURY IS THAT FOOLISH I WANT THE RANGERS TO SUCK LONG TERM

21 juin 2022 à 16 h 28

#20

Juiceman

Ex Nucks fan

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Quoting: Boltsradynasty

on an outlier year when he goes UFA after I HOPE DRURY IS THAT FOOLISH I WANT THE RANGERS TO SUCK LONG TERM

“An outlier year” the outlier year was two years ago when he put up 46 in 53. He’s been a point per game over the past 3 years. Who cares about what he put up before that. He is this good right now and that’s what teams are going to pay for

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21 juin 2022 à 16 h 32

#21

Boltsradynasty

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Quoting: Juiceman

i think GM are smarter but i hope an eastern conference team overpays and f***s themselves long term

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21 juin 2022 à 16 h 33

#22

Juiceman

Ex Nucks fan

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Quoting: Boltsradynasty

i think GM are smarter but i hope an eastern conference team overpays and f***s themselves long term

I hope so too. Our best bet is for Fletcher to overpay for Miller like he overpayed for Ristolainen. Would be an amazing sight to see

21 juin 2022 à 16 h 34

#23

Canucks33

Rejoint: déc. 2017

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I think its way tougher to find a trade partner for this kind of deal than people realize. The acquiring team must fulfill all these requirements:

a) Team must be willing to make an aggressive move to improve their team
b) Have assets that Vancouver actually wants (or value at the same level)
c) The top players on the team must be players that would fit well with Miller

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21 juin 2022 à 16 h 38

#24

Boltsradynasty

Rejoint: juin 2022

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Quoting: Juiceman

I hope so too. Our best bet is for Fletcher to overpay for Miller like he overpayed for Ristolainen. Would be an amazing sight to see

They're already going to suck for a while i'd love it to be Florida Toronto Carolina

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21 juin 2022 à 18 h 7

#25

Boldirev

Rejoint: sept. 2020

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I am curious what you define as a "massive" return. There were reports that Rutherford/Alvin were asking for 4 pieces for Miller. A first round pick, young roster player, high level prospect and another piece (pick or player) were the posited components . That in itself may be quantity, but it's by no means massive. A late 1st in this draft has value, but there are no blue chippers in that range. The roster player is probably going to be a projectable middle six type player in his early 20's and the prospect and extra piece (if he gets it) still need to develop into something.....no sure thing.

IF Miller fetches something like the above, or even is part of a trade that moves the Canucks into the top 7 of this draft, it will be a huge win. Alvin/Rutherford aren't going to settle for spare parts, thats for sure.

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