NJ is the only one that makes sense. All the other teams get fleeced

Drop the 1st to a 2nd with Necas and maybe, but Necas (who is a 40 point C) and a 1sts for a guy Minny have to move is a major stretch

Remember an offer sheet of $7.5M is a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Many of these are substantially more than that.

Yeah, Ottawa isn't the team adding in a #7 for Fiala trade IMO, especially not a top prospect.

CGY 1st 2022 + Norlinder + 3rd from MTL?

Agreed but an offer sheet isn’t a sure thing to get the player, other teams could outbid and the Wild could still match. They aren’t in a position where they can’t physically sign him because they can move Jost and Kulikov, they can move Dumba, etc so if a team really wants Fiala they aren’t going to take the risk that they don’t get him via offer sheet.

Fiala doesn’t have to be moved, they can resign him by moving Dumba or Jost and Kulikov, none of which are negative value players in their own right.

Fiala kinda has to be moved as if you don't then you won't be able to dress a complete roster. And if you matched a Fiala offersheet then you would have no insentive to trade him.

You ignored everything I just said above. If you trade Dumba and Kulikov or Dumba and Jost you have enough to sign Fiala and dress a complete team. And just because they may be willing to match an offersheet doesn’t mean they should have no interest in trading him to begin with, they would match it if they don’t view the offer as fair and they would prefer to keep Fiala and trade two or three of the previous names for draft capital or prospects

It’s more that the Wild GM will not waste time trading for max value because the risk of an offer sheet is real with Fiala. Most teams know what he wants and what the Wild won’t pay.

Correct. Which means that should probably be the floor, rather than the ceiling for 2 reasons. 1, it assumes the deal happens after free agency begins and there is no guarantee your offer sheet is accepted. 2, multiple teams will be in on him meaning that market forces come into play. If you recall, Dvorak got the CAR 1st and a 2nd, rather than the 3rd that came with the offer sheet. I think this could be a similar thing.

Ithe idea of a top prospect and a first isn’t outlandish. It just comes down to where the team that trades for him thinks Fiala gets them relative to the prospect. In CAR case, if they think Fiala is a better fit than Necas and will put up 70 as expected, then Necas and a 1st makes more sense than waiting on a guy to pop.

But I hear you.

Exactly it’s a balance, if I’m the Kings and I offered a 1st and Turcotte, the Wild should take it and run. But leveraging the highest return and waiting opens them up to the risk of an offer sheet, which Fiala might prefer as it allows him to dictate where he goes.

The other thing I just realized is that an offer sheet is straight pick. No conditions. And it would be the 23 pick.

Of teams like NJD or OTT want to protect their 1st, which I would bet they do, they can’t offer sheet. All these little rules change the cost one way or the other. The biggest thing driving up the Fiala move is that he is the most affordable (relative to other options, he’s not gonna be cheap, I know) goal scorer available. Lots of teams want to make the next step that all have good pieces to put in play for him and it’s not like you’re trading for a guy that turns 30 next year. DeBrincat is the premier guy and some team that figures out how to get him is gonna be very happy. But Fiala just works for more teams.

From the standpoint of really likening Fiala, I feel like he’s a beach guy and would love LAK so I’m rooting for you there.

Second, I really like Turcs but his concussion issues don’t make him more than a throw in right now. I think Grans fits and I’m interested in Kupari but concussions scare me a lot and that is the only reason I’m not saying take Turcs and a 1st and run.

Then do that, because most of these are way off

A pretty weak draft class this year. I think you have starting points on most of these deals. I think unless you go for #2 this year, anything else I may want to push to next year if it's an option. Maybe Ottawa doesn't do that but most of them would push to next year as the pick would probably turn out to be a lower pick. A lot of this speculation is also contingent on what path BG wants to go. Is he building to make a push under the cap restraints or is he building for 2-3 years out? No one knows this and won't until Fiala or others are traded.

The Kings deal is probably too much value coming to Minnesota. I like Turcotte and wishing him the best but thats a big questions mark coming back. 2 concussions in a season is scary. No matter who he plays with I hope he gets back to 100%. I would think Turcotte and a 1st would be the max LA is willing to go but it would be nice to switch prospects and get a RHD prospect for one of our LHD as part of it. If Minnesota do a physical on him and think he will bounce back, he could be really good here with the talent on the wings that we have now.

The Carolina deal seems to be fair. Carolina will argue that Necas has a high ceiling but he's projecting to be a 50 point producer in a full season which he has not had. Unprotected 1st really doesn't mean anything because Carolina is pushing for the cup each year. I do think that salary cap is going to be an issue for them because they have so much talent so they may not want to take this trade on because of that. BG has to decide if this team is going to push for a cup next year because if they are it may hurt the returns we get for Fiala. By saying that, we might get a bigger return if we take a 1st, great prospect and a "bad contract". Doesn't have to be a terrible contract but maybe one Carolina wants to move on from.

Ottawa's deal is not my favorite. Greig is still small for the NHL, I think he is listed at 160 pounds at age 20. I'm worried about playoffs and getting pushed off the puck. 7th overall is great if you love someone in that area. At the end of the day I feel you are losing this trade heavily but getting pieces that you hope one day help out. Greig will need another year in the AHL if that is his weight, and the 7th overall would be about 2-3 years out from helping the squad. I think its better to go after a trade like, Pinto and a 2nd or something along this type. You get a guy you can put on your squad next year and a prospect in a 3ish years. Again it depends on the direction BG wants to go.

Islanders are very intriguing and might help us drive the price up between them and NJD. I like Wahlstrom and a first a lot. I'm also intrigued by Raty. He is a center and we are in desperate need of center talent. 13th overall is probably one you could package to move around and maybe move up a bit if a guy slides this year. I think Barzal and Fiala would be fun to watch as well!

I think both Montreal and Anaheim are in the same boat. Both are rebuilding and have top tier talent but Fiala isn't landing you anything close to that. In Anaheim's case I would be asking for Mason McTavish. Ducks would laugh at you and hang up but it's going to take something they probably don't want to give up to get this done. Perreault will need time to develop more but he can snipe it from anywhere. If he can't figure out the 200 ft game it will hurt him in the long run.
Montreal there isn't much in terms of prospects that are realistic. You would probably go with Guhle to potentially be your number 1 defense men. Montreal isn't looking at trading a prospect like that for Fiala and the fact they got the number 1 means their pick is a no go. Depending on where Montreal see's themselves in a year you might ask for next year but if they are at the bottom like they were this year that won't be available either. Also I hate having terms on the pick, if we did trade Fiala for next years 1st and the conditions are met and gets pushed back, we are looking at 3 drafts from now until you get that pick. I'm personally against this but I understand why teams do it. It would be a deal breaker with me.

Lastly, NJD is a very hard trade to make. At least on here it is. The Wild should target 2nd overall or Holtz/Mercer/L. Hughes. We should be aiming high. I think out of that bunch the 2nd overall is the most likely but we shouldn't settle for their 8th best prospect and next years 1st. They will be a power house for years to come so I don't want anything to do with their future 1sts. Reports say NJD is the most likely to land Fiala so I have to assume Fitz is ok giving up one of these plus more to get Fiala. Time will tell.

I think when it comes down to it, Islanders makes a ton of sense with one of Raty/Wahlstrom and their 1st coming to Minnesota. If the NJD traded the 2nd overall for Fiala straight up, NJD are in such a great place they shouldn't even worry about who won. They have a 80+ point player to team up on the second line. It changes that entire team with depth scoring. They have talent still coming up to make this team so they aren't done growing either.

This is why I don't really worry about an offer sheet too much.

I'd be ok with an unprotected 1st in 23, a 2nd and 3rd as the return for Fiala.

Absolutely, especially in a draft class where the top 100 picks are considered pretty valuable at this point. If he doesn’t get an offer in the 1,2,3 range, then the wild could resign him for 6.3m or less (which I highly doubt he wouldn’t get offer sheeted for more than that). I think if a team wants to make sure they get Fiala, they will definitely
Dish up to make sure they lock him up. If I was NJ, OTT, ANA, I would be hesitant to go the offer sheet route because of that unprotected factor and if things went horribly wrong during the season those picks could end up being way more valuable than what a trade offer would be