There have been some interesting ACGM scenarios moving Alex DeBrincat to New Jersey. But the prices being suggested and getting a little far-fetched. A number of reasons why:
First…. DeBrincat is not the type of winger NJD needs or is looking to add this off-season. Our priorities for the position are adding (a) a net-front player; (b) a puck retriever that can battle in the corners; (c) a little more shot-blocking from wing; (d) a little more physicality. DeBrincat is an excellent player, but is much more of a want than a need for us.
Second… top-5 picks do not get moved often. In fact, in the cap era, a top-5 pick has never been moved for a player. You would have to go back to the 2001 trade between Senators and Islanders when Yashin was sent to NYI to find anything that resembles the prices being suggested today.
Third…Wingers grow on trees. Sorry, but they do. There are always plenty available and teams should never overpay for them. Just this off-season, Devils have been linked to Gaudreau, Boeser, Forsberg, Fiala, Tkachuk, Garland, Pastrnak, DeBrincat and more (mostly speculation at this point). If there will be a bidding war, it will be over the #2 pick (after all, there is only one of those).
Fourth…the Blackhawks got a great return from Tampa Bay in the Hagel deal. But salary cap had a lot to do with that price as Hagel had 3 years x $1.5 million. DeBrincat makes $6.4 million this year and will likely get $2-3m raise next summer. Additionally, two late 1st round picks is no where near the value of a 2nd overall selection (look up any draft pick trade value chart).
Fifth…listen to comps. History can be a guide to the future, so use previous trade returns to build something this year. It doesn’t matter so much to me which comp you use. None will be perfect. But all of them together will help predict what the market could pay for a player (Patrik Laine, Dany Heatley, Rick Nash, Tyler Seguin, Marian Gaborik, Phil Kessel, James Neal, Scott Hartnell, Artemi Panarin, Mark Stone, Ryan Kesler, Jeff Skinner, Ilya Kovalchuk, etc….there are many to chose from).
Here are few examples of Cat-to-NJD trades from other users on ACGM:
Oh, I think it will be and in a vacuum probably gets it done. I just think the market is gonna be large for him, which changes the prospect.
FWIW, I don’t see the upside most people are selling on Gritsyuk. I get he had a decent season at Avangard but it wasn’t one that makes me think he’s got top 6 upside. I also follow the NHLe scene and I get the models rate him highly but the track record for small scoring wings from Russia isn’t as great as I’d like it to be.
Good season at Avangaard, but also was big piece for international teams and in Olympics (he was youngest on team and played over guys like Marchenko). Also worth noting, that Russia deployed him as a defensive winger and 2020 world juniors and that is really where he began to get noticed. So it’s not all goal scoring.
Big risk for sure, but Wild handled Kaprizov really well. I think there are a lot of teams that would have f’ed that up. Or lost patience. So if there is any team that could potentially dial down the risk a bit, Minnesota may be it. But there is no doubt his ceiling is really, really high.
I do agree that many of the proposed trades are a bit much. Do you think there's a possibility New Jersey would consider Mercer + a protected 2023 first? Davidson has publicly said that Chicago is prioritizing well-rounded players over pure skill guys. Not that Holtz is one-dimensional, but it does make me think they may not be as interested in Holtz as most would believe. I'm sure New Jersey values Mercer slightly ahead of Holtz, but most models have them valued similarly. By adding DeBrincat AND keeping #2OA, they could hypothetically build around:
Ahh, but you completely ignored the fact that there have been multiple reports that Strome will not get qualified.
Firstly, who has propagated these "multiple reports"? Secondly, how does that make any sense? A player has a bounce back year, only to be let go of because... just because? I don't think that seems right to me nor should it to any logical, thinking being.
I do agree that many of the proposed trades are a bit much. Do you think there's a possibility New Jersey would consider Mercer + a protected 2023 first? Davidson has publicly said that Chicago is prioritizing well-rounded players over pure skill guys. Not that Holtz is one-dimensional, but it does make me think they may not be as interested in Holtz as most would believe. I'm sure New Jersey values Mercer slightly ahead of Holtz, but most models have them valued similarly. By adding DeBrincat AND keeping #2OA, they could hypothetically build around:
I would be surprised if we moved Mercer, Holtz or any of our young skill guys.
Guys like Boqvist, Zacha and Johnsson may get moved, but none of them would be part of a Debrincat-sized deal.
More likely moved to fill specific needs...(maybe guys like Hornqvist, Kunin, Crouse).
Firstly, who has propagated these "multiple reports"? Secondly, how does that make any sense? A player has a bounce back year, only to be let go of because... just because? I don't think that seems right to me nor should it to any logical, thinking being.
I just view it as click-bait at this point.
Young centers are in very high demand.
I'd add a #6 and it's not intended to be mean, but more realistic...NJD are a bad team. Worse than the Hawks! So it's not like they're contending next year or likely even the year after. NJD needs to take their time and just be happy with what they have.
The Hurricanes are the team that should trade for the cat. They need a goal scorer, They're trying to win now, and have a really deep farm system too.
One team is on the decline
Other is on the rise
With stable goaltending, Devils are a bubble playoff team
Firstly, who has propagated these "multiple reports"? Secondly, how does that make any sense? A player has a bounce back year, only to be let go of because... just because? I don't think that seems right to me nor should it to any logical, thinking being.
Quoting: Nqutilus
Also, if we didn't want him, why would Davidson let him go for nothing? That makes literally no sense.
I didn't say I agreed he would be unqualified. I don't. But if that is a popular opinion among journalists, it's highly unlikely that he fetches anything of substanial value.
From this Athletic article the other day from Blackhawks beat reporter Scott Powers:
"Not re-sign Dominik Kubalik, Dylan Strome This sounds like it’s pretty much a done deal. The Blackhawks may wait to see if they can trade their rights, but it’s unlikely either is returning to the Blackhawks next season. While Kubalik had a down season, producing just 15 goals, he’s someone who could very well find the right track again. He scored 47 goals in his first 124 NHL games. He’s proven he can score at that level. The Blackhawks will move on from him because he does require a high qualifying offer at $4 million, but they also aren’t looking to hold onto anyone who might just elevate them offensively. Which brings us to Strome. We’ve written so much about Strome. He did prove himself as last season went on and began producing at a high rate consistently again. The Blackhawks seem to have made their mind up on him, though. He doesn’t fit their future plans."
Saskleaf a aimé ceci.
Holtz,
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