Mercer would not be included in a deal

Mercer isn’t moving, and PIT isn’t taking on Dumba’s contract when they’re trying to resign Geno and Letang still

Well you’re not getting Fiala for the other prospect and just a second round pick. Assuming you want him what are you realistically going to pay?

We have no idea what Tom is going to pay. It won’t be the 2nd overall pick or Mercer though.

None of this is likely to happen. Your UFA signings are all getting more. Your dad from the only one giving offers to Laxar and Desmith to get them at those prices. Lazar might get 2mil and Desmith will get atleast 2.5. You're even low balling deslauriers!
The buffalo trade is the only one thats not ridiculous.

Fitzy will probably offer players like Smith, Foote, Zacha, Blackwood, Boqvist, and 2nd round picks. Maybe Gritsyuk but don’t think he’d want to move him

I can see an offer like the following:
- Zacha
- Smith
- 2022 2nd
- 2023 3rd

Guerin has been slighting Fiala in the media and has publicly said he doesn’t expect to get a haul in the Fiala trade (Guerin said not going “win the trade”). He also knows, it will not likely be a multiple team bidding war for Fiala (“in a perfect world there will be more than one team involved”).

I don’t know how people keep seeing a Fiala price so high. Believe what the GM is trying to tell you.


Take out Mercer and that is probably closer to package they will be getting.

Also, Fiala has stripped his social media accounts of Minnesota Wild and even send a “Thank you Minnesota” instagram message. Sounds like he is done for Wild.

I hope so. Wanna see the end of this saga. This trade is going to test our management on the level of professionalism. You just dont get ppg snipers on the trade block that often. If Guerin screws up, he is done for me personally. I just dont understand his logic sometimes.

Your generalizing. And once again fitting the narrative by picking and choosing what he's said and disregarding other important parts because it doesn't fit that narrative.

Guerin literally walked back his comments on Fiala a few days later when talking to Russo on his Athletic podcast Straight from the Source.



Asking for what he considers fair value and not looking to pull a fast one on his fellow GM's doesn't mean he's looking to get bent over either.

Fair for him could very well mean Holtz or Mercer and a 2nd. Not necessarily the 2nd ova. You have no way of justifiably saying that he is going to get absolutely nothing of note back for a PPG 80+ point winger.

And by Guerin's own words. He thinks he's pretty valuable.

What you posted mostly confirms what I have been saying.

Asked on “Straight from the Source” how he’ll be able to maximize value for Fiala when everybody in the league knows he can’t afford him and he’s one year from unrestricted free agency, Guerin said, “In a perfect world, we’d probably have multiple teams interested. And I’m sure there will be, and then you make your best deal. Like I’ve always said, I’m not in it to win a trade. I want fair value for what we’re about to give up.

“We’ll see what the market is, but I think Kevin’s a pretty valuable guy.”

Again, full context of the statement taken into account of the discussion here please.

And he already has at least 3 teams reported to be interested. And our Beat-writer Michael Russo speculates there are likely 3 more that will be in on Fiala before this is done. That's high interest, and even just the 3 we know about is all Guerin realistically needs.

KNOWN:
Ottawa Senators
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders

SPECULATED:
Philadelphia Flyers
LA Kings
Anaheim Ducks

It would seem then that Guerin has everything he needs to ensure he is going to get fair value back for Fiala.

None of this is known. And interest does not equal a bid. Fiala has to agree to sign with that team too. So you’re missing a few steps.

Say….hypothetically, all six have interest.

Which will have the cap space?
Which will hold out for UFAs (Gaudreau, Forsberg)?
Which of them will Fiala sign with?

Don’t expect a bidding war.

I expect a bidding war about as much as you don't.

Interest is interest.

All it takes is that interest, from multiple teams, to ensure a fair return. Which is all I'm looking for in return for the guy.

Guerin clearly feels the same.

As for your hypothetical.

1) A team's cap space is determined by what they're willing to move to fit said player under their cap, even if it requires subsequent moves at a later date to accomplish, if they feel that player is worth it and what they need.

2) If they can afford either Gaudreau or Forsberg, they can afford Fiala. Who is younger and likely cheaper than either option and still has a year of RFA, albeit with arbitration rights, but still has that control. They do not.

In this hypothetical scenario a GM is competing with 4 other GM's for a player's services but is still dealing for a RFA who is younger than his UFA counterparts that can likely be extended for cheaper than the cost it would take to sign the others.

With Gaudreau and Forsberg that same GM is likely competing with 15 other GM's for that same player's services. Which is only going to drive that player's price up. How is that a better option?

Gaudreau is going to likely come in around $9-10M on his next contract. Forsberg $8-9M. Fiala will likely command $7-8M.

Ergo, Fiala likely makes for the best target despite the assets given up. He's easily the most economical choice out there this off-season. Which provides value.

3) If he's smart... all of them.

Seriously, this argument has never made much sense to me. And I'd expect his agent at Newport to feel the same way I do.

Limiting where he's willing to sign long-term with, only hurts him and his next contract. More teams involved means his agent can play this off like a real UFA signing and attempt to get the best contract possible for their client. If he instead decides to limit where he wants to go, something he doesn't have control over by the way, he's potentially looking at a worse contract that those teams ​can provide.

Limiting where he's willing to sign is asinine. Not if he wants top dollar on his next contract.

You are missing the point in #3. Fiala has two options.

1. Sign 1-year and become UFA next year
2. Sign long-term extension

Flexibility to sign anywhere will help his trade value. But it’s not in his best interest. He only gets the best contract when he gets to UFA (which to him is 1-year away).

He may sign a 1-year deal anywhere, but trade return on a rental will be lower.

He may sign a long-term extension with the team he chooses, but with fewer bidders, the trade return will be lower.

Either way, there is only downward pressure on his trade price.

Again, why on earth would he do that? You completely missed mine if that's what you got out of that.

Going 1-year then UFA isn't smart. There's too much inherent risk involved that plan could go south for him.

He bet on himself last year, and he struck gold. But can lightning strike twice? If this was a career year as others seem to think it was, then he would of just screwed himself on his next contract when he goes UFA in a year.

That's smart.

His value is the highest its ever been and he is coming off a 33 goal 85 point season. If he regresses next year after getting moved, he kisses all chances of getting that lucrative $7M+ contract goodbye. He needs to cash in on a long-term contract while the iron is hot. NOW. Not in a year. But now.

He is playing with hand grenades otherwise.

His agent knows this. So why would he advise taking a 1 year deal when there's that much inherent risk involved? Any good agent knows to strike while the iron is hot.

Furthermore, multiple teams interested means it's absolutely beneficial for Fiala in terms of contract negotiations. Not just Guerin.

In our little hypothetical scenario, we had 6 teams interested. In that scenario Fiala's agent is talking to 6 different GM's laying the groundwork for six different possible contracts. That means the agent is fully capable of setting the table on what his client's next contract looks like and what the minimum range the AAV will be. As well as term.

That part is no different than UFA. More teams = more control in contract negotiations.

The chances of downward pressure is negated by virtue of demand. Interest is demand, even if nothing comes from it. It still increases the value and the price that other teams have to pay when they're left.