In my opinion the equivalent of 2 1st + 2 2nds (the estimated low end of the above package). Is a huge overpay. Guhle alone could end up better than the player picked 2nd OVA this year. Not interested in giving up all that on a player who may never make the NHL.

Yeah, I did not say I would do it either. I just tried to make an offer devils fans would at least consider. I agree Guhle alone might end up being better than any of Slaf, Cooley or Nemec, but from the devils GM perspective, I think it would take a pretty big haul to consider it, espicially since they probably want an already elite top6 foward or top4 dman entering his prime to accelerate their rebuild and we just cant offer it.

Lets say you are Hughes and you're really High on slaf, cooley or nemec and you just want it, what would your offer look like?

NJ wants to get into the playoffs next year, so i don't think they trade the 2nd overall for future.

I don't think MTL have the assets NJ will look for, but i would offer Anderson, Edmundson, Romanov and Allen since they're the only valuable assets except for Suzuki and Caufield.

But if i was NJ, i would target a young goalie. Someone like Oettinger, Knight or Askarov. I could see Florida being interested in the 2nd overall to add a 3 year ELC contract.

I think acquiring the #2 pick without (a) another top-5 to include or (b) an elite player to include, will be really difficult to do.

My recommended package would be four pieces

A) A prospect or young player (Caufield or Suzuki)
B) B+ level prospect or young player (Primeau, Guhle, Romanov, Farrell)
C) One late first or early 2nd (2022 1st round pick (CGY), 2022 2nd round pick (MTL), 2023 2nd round pick (MTL),
D) One middle-round 1st (2023 1st round pick (MTL))

So packages like

1) Cole Caufield, Cayden Primeau, 2022 2nd round pick (MTL), 2023 1st round pick (MTL)
2) Nick Suzuki, Alexander Romanov, 2022 1st round pick (CGY), 2023 1st round pick (MTL)
3) Cole Caufield, Sean Farrell, 2023 2nd round pick (MTL), 2023 1st round pick (MTL)

...are the types of packages it would take to acquire #2 overall

Lets say the 1st and Guhle are similar in values and the 2nd and Anderson are similar in values.
And as you say, its like the 1st x2 and the 2nd x 2 to get the #2 overall.
Using pick values

2nd overall = 12.3

1st = 3.0
1st = 3.0 (Guhle equivalent)
2nd = 2.6
2nd = 2.6 (Anderson equivalent)

Total = 11.2

I think, to make work, Habs would need to change this years 2nd to next years 1st.

Suzuki and Caufield worth more than 2nd overall this year

So are all 2023 top 16 picks (likely where Montreal picks) which all have a shot at being a top 6 pick.



That aside all these packages values are different.

Suzuki has more value than Caufield
Romanov has more value than Farrell and Farrell has more value than Primeau
22 Flames 1st has more value than the 22 Montreal 2nd
All 3 packages have the Habs 23 1st which has more value than the 1st OVA pick this yearas it is likely a lottery pick for a player considered to be a generational talent and Wright is not.

So in conclusion package 2 gas at least 2 times the value of the other packages and its about 4 times as much as the 2nd OVA pick is worth. Packages 1 and 3 are closer to eachother but are still about 2 times as much value as the 2nd OVA pick is worth since Montreal's 2023 1st is considered to be a top 16 pick and a good shot at Bedard. IF the Habs were to trade their 2023 1st it alone would return any 1st this year (including 1st OVA if it was owned by anyone else) + a 2nd. The 2023 1sts have about as much value as the 2015 1sts did leading into that draft where the prize was McDavid and the 2nd OVA was Eichel. So IF you came to the Habs (or any team for who is likely to be a bubble team or worse next year that matter) and said that you would trade them 2nd OVA this year for their 1st next year, I am sorry to say you would be laughed out of the room. Would you trade the Devils shot at landing Bedard or Michkov for 1st this year? No of course you wouldn't, neither would anyone else.

It said “middle round” first, if there is worry about being a lottery candidate again, put a protection on it.

If I am to list options, each will likely have different values (no two are the same). And different values to different teams.

Even middle of the 1st round picks next year are considered to be as valuable asset top 10 picks this year.

2022 was supposed to be a good year, now some are saying it’s a weak year (I still think it looks pretty strong). 2020 was supposed to be a strong year, and it’s looking like it may be one of the weaker ones. 2017 was supposed to be a terrible year and it is turning out well. 2011 was supposed to be bad, and it’s solid. And so on.

2023 looks loaded. But a year out, many drafts can change.

Serivalli is the one quoted as saying that GM's were asking for 2023 1sts instead of 2022 because they viewed 2023 as a stronger draft. It is not like it's my opinion or even the insiders opinions, it's the GM's of the league who feel 2023 is the better deeper draft

If you are picking where most 1st rounders are being sold, sure. But if you are NJD, or OTT, or DET, or ANA or any team on the rise, you’d probably be a bit more willing to move a mid-2023 pick than a top-10 2022 pick.

Would you take Will Smith over Joakim Kemell? Matthew Wood over Juraj Slafkovsky? Hunter Brzustewicz over Simon Nemec?