Forums/Armchair-GM

The most realistic off-season

Créé par: Caerii
Date de création initiale: 20 mai 2022
Publié: 20 mai 2022
Équipe: 2022-23 Wild du Minnesota
Explications
He's gonna have to find a way to shed 1M still. I don't think Rossi or Addison are going to start the year with Minnesota.

This is a fringe playoff team.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
Middleton, Jacob22 000 000 $
Dewar, Connor2950 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
Fleury, Marc-André13 666 667 $
Deslauriers, Nicolas11 200 000 $
Transactions
1.
MIN
  1. Bernard-Docker, Jacob
  2. Boucher, Tyler
  3. 2022 2e round pick (OTT)
  4. 2023 4e round pick (OTT)
Détails additionnels:
This trade is 2nd + 4th + Bernard-Docker OR Boucher, not both.
OTT
  1. Fiala, Kevin [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Seems like Ottawa wants him the most, and has the most assets available to get him.
Rachats de contrats
  • Zach Parise: 6 371 794 $
  • Ryan Suter: 6 371 794 $
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2022
Logo de MIN
Logo de VAN
Logo de OTT
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
2023
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
Logo de OTT
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
2024
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
Logo de MIN
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2282 500 000 $82 882 755 $0 $600 000 $-382 755 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de MIN
Kaprizov, Kirill
9 000 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 4
Logo de MIN
Hartman, Ryan
1 700 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de MIN
Zuccarello, Mats
6 000 000 $
AD, AG
NMC NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de MIN
Foligno, Marcus
3 100 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de MIN
Eriksson Ek, Joel
5 250 000 $
C
UFA - 7
Logo de MIN
Greenway, Jordan
3 000 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 3
Logo de MIN
Boldy, Matthew
880 833 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de MIN
Gaudreau, Frédérick
1 200 000 $
C
UFA - 1
Logo de MIN
Jost, Tyson
2 000 000 $
C, AG, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de MIN
Deslauriers, Nicolas
1 200 000 $
AD, AG
UFA
Logo de MIN
Dewar, Connor
950 000 $
AG
RFA - 2
Logo de MIN
Duhaime, Brandon
750 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de MIN
Shaw, Mason
750 000 $
C
RFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de MIN
Brodin, Jonas
6 000 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo de MIN
Dumba, Matt
6 000 000 $
DD
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de MIN
Fleury, Marc-André
3 666 667 $
G
UFA
Logo de MIN
Middleton, Jacob
2 000 000 $
DG
RFA
Logo de MIN
Spurgeon, Jared
7 575 000 $
DD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo de MIN
Talbot, Cam
3 666 667 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de MIN
Merrill, Jon
1 200 000 $
DG
UFA - 3
Logo de MIN
Goligoski, Alex
2 000 000 $
DG/DD
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo de MIN
Kulikov, Dmitry
2 250 000 $
DG/DD
NTC
UFA - 1

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20 mai à 20 h 58
#1
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Kaprizov is the only reason it's a fringe Playoff team. Without him it's a bottom feeder.

It's pretty much how I see the offseason going. Fiala for stuff that won't help the team next year.

Try to re-sign MAF. I think MAF walks away just like Cole and Bonino did. So MN gets stuck with whatever leftover back goalie he can find.
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20 mai à 21 h 3
#2
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I did some math so no one else has to.

Looking back at the last three seasons worth of data, and taking each players goals per 82 games played rates, assuming everyone on this roster plays 82 games at their average for the last three years, this team can be expected to score 252 goals next season. That would have been good enough for 16th in the league this year. Assuming the GAA doesn't change much (because we haven't improved the defense or goaltending at all) our projected goal differential is close to 0.

Obviously there's a lot of room for error with this model, because guys like Boldy should improve (though without Fiala, how much he actually does is a valid question). For the sake of simplicity, I assume injuries and regression from the top two lines will cancel out any potential improvements on these numbers from guys like Boldy, Gaudreau, Jost, Dewar.

Teams that had a roughly even goal differential this season were Los Angeles, Winnipeg, New York Islanders, Dallas. Two of them made the post-season as wild card teams, two of them missed the playoffs.
20 mai à 21 h 3
#3
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what about Boucher+2ndrd(ott)+Gustafsson(goalie) for Fiala. ONly a handful of teams might be going for Fiala
20 mai à 21 h 5
#4
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Quoting: M0LSON
what about Boucher+2ndrd(ott)+Gustafsson(goalie) for Fiala. ONly a handful of teams might be going for Fiala


The only difference between this and what I proposed is that the 4th is replaced with a goalie, and unless we can't find any other goalie, Gustafsson isn't something we want. Guerin has already said Talbot is going to be back and that he wants to bring Fleury back too. Fleury has said he'll test FA, but returning to MIN is an enticing option for him.
20 mai à 21 h 9
#5
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Quoting: wabit
Kaprizov is the only reason it's a fringe Playoff team. Without him it's a bottom feeder.


This is my opinion as well. When doing the calculations for xGF next season, Kaprizov has 45 goals, the next highest is Boldy with 26, then Zuccarello with 23, Eriksson Ek with 22, Foligno with 21, and Hartman with 20. You can be the judge of how realistic each of those are. This team is going to be scraping and clawing for every goal when Kaprizov isn't on the ice.
20 mai à 21 h 19
#6
Chart Boi
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What’s the equivalent deal from NJD
20 mai à 21 h 25
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Quoting: HeadHighSauce
What’s the equivalent deal from NJD


Obviously mileage varies depending on your personal opinion of the prospects. But 2nd + 4th + Stillman/Ohkotyuk/maybe Gritsyuk if we're lucky. Looking at late 1st/early-mid 2nd prospects who maybe aren't really needed by the team because they have better options already in their pipeline.
20 mai à 21 h 26
#8
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Quoting: Caerii
This is my opinion as well. When doing the calculations for xGF next season, Kaprizov has 45 goals, the next highest is Boldy with 26, then Zuccarello with 23, Eriksson Ek with 22, Foligno with 21, and Hartman with 20. You can be the judge of how realistic each of those are. This team is going to be scraping and clawing for every goal when Kaprizov isn't on the ice.


I expect a big regression from the Boldy line next season. The only way to help offset that is to get a working PP. Too bad I don't see that happening until the coaching staff is turned over.
20 mai à 21 h 30
#9
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Quoting: wabit
I expect a big regression from the Boldy line next season. The only way to help offset that is to get a working PP. Too bad I don't see that happening until the coaching staff is turned over.


I expect regression almost everywhere. Just looking at guys who played the entire year with us, also excluding Fiala, Boldy, Dewar, or any other rookies (by my count, a pool of 13), 11 guys either set career highs in goals or points, or were on pace to.
20 mai à 21 h 32
#10
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Minny fans won't like it but I think this is about where Fiala's value is. All this assuming you think like I do and think that Boucher wasn't worth the 10th pick last year
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20 mai à 21 h 34
#11
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Quoting: Wadejos123
Minny fans won't like it but I think this is about where Fiala's value is. All this assuming you think like I do and think that Boucher wasn't worth the 10th pick last year


My assumption was that nobody thinks Boucher was worth the 10th last season. I would love to hear why if anyone thinks differently.
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20 mai à 21 h 37
#12
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Quoting: Caerii
I expect regression almost everywhere. Just looking at guys who played the entire year with us, also excluding Fiala, Boldy, Dewar, or any other rookies (by my count, a pool of 13), 11 guys either set career highs in goals or points, or were on pace to.


I think the Kaprizov and GREEF lines can stay at relatively the same pace. The 4th line is a 4th line and they are all about the same.
20 mai à 21 h 50
#13
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Quoting: Caerii
Obviously mileage varies depending on your personal opinion of the prospects. But 2nd + 4th + Stillman/Ohkotyuk/maybe Gritsyuk if we're lucky. Looking at late 1st/early-mid 2nd prospects who maybe aren't really needed by the team because they have better options already in their pipeline.

I’m very confident Fitz would do Stillman and 37 + 4th
20 mai à 21 h 51
#14
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Did your opinion on Fiala’s return change as a result of Guerins recent interview? Or is that a non factor in your eyes?

I personally didn’t think it would have a huge impact on value, but based on your post and the earlier one from TanSor, I’m starting to wonder if I’m just being naive.
20 mai à 22 h 4
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Quoting: drmantalban
Did your opinion on Fiala’s return change as a result of Guerins recent interview? Or is that a non factor in your eyes?

I personally didn’t think it would have a huge impact on value, but based on your post and the earlier one from TanSor, I’m starting to wonder if I’m just being naive.


My thoughts on this are it's just the pendulum swinging back the other way for Fiala trade values as an over reaction. The opposite effect as fans asking for 2oa based on something NJD's GM said before the lotto.

In the real world. GMs all know whatever another GM says to the press means nothing. Those interviews are just the dog and pony show part of their job.
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20 mai à 22 h 5
#16
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Quoting: drmantalban
Did your opinion on Fiala’s return change as a result of Guerins recent interview? Or is that a non factor in your eyes?

I personally didn’t think it would have a huge impact on value, but based on your post and the earlier one from TanSor, I’m starting to wonder if I’m just being naive.



I've long felt that Guerin wouldn't be after the type of return we as fans are. To me, if the interview confirmed one thing, it's that Guerin wants Fiala gone ASAP, has no more patience left for him, if he ever had any.

When I say I wouldn't trade Fiala without Holtz or the #7 pick or whatever top asset coming back, that's me saying if I were the GM, I'd sign him unless those pieces were on the table. I don't think Guerin was ever going to get those pieces if he traded Fiala, and as I said, with Guerin seemingly reinforcing the idea that he wants Fiala gone ASAP, this is the type of deal I expect to happen, because if Ottawa says #7 isn't on the table, that's not going to be a dealbreaker for Guerin like it would be to me.
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20 mai à 22 h 47
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Quoting: Caerii
I've long felt that Guerin wouldn't be after the type of return we as fans are. To me, if the interview confirmed one thing, it's that Guerin wants Fiala gone ASAP, has no more patience left for him, if he ever had any.

When I say I wouldn't trade Fiala without Holtz or the #7 pick or whatever top asset coming back, that's me saying if I were the GM, I'd sign him unless those pieces were on the table. I don't think Guerin was ever going to get those pieces if he traded Fiala, and as I said, with Guerin seemingly reinforcing the idea that he wants Fiala gone ASAP, this is the type of deal I expect to happen, because if Ottawa says #7 isn't on the table, that's not going to be a dealbreaker for Guerin like it would be to me.


Gotcha, that makes sense. Hence the “realistic” part of the title, I suppose - ie what you expect from him vs. what you yourself would do.

It’s an interesting argument. IMO, these guys are emotional and not always as clinical about their decision making as you see in other, non-sports related professions - so it adds a wildcard element that’s hard to predict.

I really don’t know what to expect at this point. Trying to stay cautiously optimistic, but some doubt is definitely creeping in after reading others’ takes.
20 mai à 22 h 51
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Quoting: wabit
My thoughts on this are it's just the pendulum swinging back the other way for Fiala trade values as an over reaction. The opposite effect as fans asking for 2oa based on something NJD's GM said before the lotto.

In the real world. GMs all know whatever another GM says to the press means nothing. Those interviews are just the dog and pony show part of their job.


I hope so. That was my first reaction/assumption. Just posturing GM speak, part of the business, etc.
20 mai à 23 h 0
#19
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Quoting: drmantalban
Gotcha, that makes sense. Hence the “realistic” part of the title, I suppose - ie what you expect from him vs. what you yourself would do.

It’s an interesting argument. IMO, these guys are emotional and not always as clinical about their decision making as you see in other, non-sports related professions - so it adds a wildcard element that’s hard to predict.

I really don’t know what to expect at this point. Trying to stay cautiously optimistic, but some doubt is definitely creeping in after reading others’ takes.


Here's what to expect. Nothing happens with Fiala until the draft has already started. The NHL wants it this way. Nothing can overshadow the Playoffs. Fiala's future will be part of the buildup to the draft coverage. It'll also give the talking heads at the draft some filler conversation for the first hour of the draft.
20 mai à 23 h 5
#20
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Quoting: wabit
Here's what to expect. Nothing happens with Fiala until the draft has already started. The NHL wants it this way. Nothing can overshadow the Playoffs. Fiala's future will be part of the buildup to the draft coverage. It'll also give the talking heads at the draft some filler conversation for the first hour of the draft.


Yeah I just meant that more generally regarding the return, not when the trade will happen. I’ve always assumed it would be a draft day deal.
20 mai à 23 h 14
#21
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Quoting: drmantalban
Yeah I just meant that more generally regarding the return, not when the trade will happen. I’ve always assumed it would be a draft day deal.


Playoff 1st + a (non-bluechip) prospect the Wild targets. I'm using the Reinhart trade as a baseline for Fiala.
 
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