Kaprizov is the only reason it's a fringe Playoff team. Without him it's a bottom feeder.

It's pretty much how I see the offseason going. Fiala for stuff that won't help the team next year.

Try to re-sign MAF. I think MAF walks away just like Cole and Bonino did. So MN gets stuck with whatever leftover back goalie he can find.

I did some math so no one else has to.

Looking back at the last three seasons worth of data, and taking each players goals per 82 games played rates, assuming everyone on this roster plays 82 games at their average for the last three years, this team can be expected to score 252 goals next season. That would have been good enough for 16th in the league this year. Assuming the GAA doesn't change much (because we haven't improved the defense or goaltending at all) our projected goal differential is close to 0.

Obviously there's a lot of room for error with this model, because guys like Boldy should improve (though without Fiala, how much he actually does is a valid question). For the sake of simplicity, I assume injuries and regression from the top two lines will cancel out any potential improvements on these numbers from guys like Boldy, Gaudreau, Jost, Dewar.

Teams that had a roughly even goal differential this season were Los Angeles, Winnipeg, New York Islanders, Dallas. Two of them made the post-season as wild card teams, two of them missed the playoffs.

what about Boucher+2ndrd(ott)+Gustafsson(goalie) for Fiala. ONly a handful of teams might be going for Fiala

The only difference between this and what I proposed is that the 4th is replaced with a goalie, and unless we can't find any other goalie, Gustafsson isn't something we want. Guerin has already said Talbot is going to be back and that he wants to bring Fleury back too. Fleury has said he'll test FA, but returning to MIN is an enticing option for him.

This is my opinion as well. When doing the calculations for xGF next season, Kaprizov has 45 goals, the next highest is Boldy with 26, then Zuccarello with 23, Eriksson Ek with 22, Foligno with 21, and Hartman with 20. You can be the judge of how realistic each of those are. This team is going to be scraping and clawing for every goal when Kaprizov isn't on the ice.

What’s the equivalent deal from NJD

Obviously mileage varies depending on your personal opinion of the prospects. But 2nd + 4th + Stillman/Ohkotyuk/maybe Gritsyuk if we're lucky. Looking at late 1st/early-mid 2nd prospects who maybe aren't really needed by the team because they have better options already in their pipeline.

I expect a big regression from the Boldy line next season. The only way to help offset that is to get a working PP. Too bad I don't see that happening until the coaching staff is turned over.

I expect regression almost everywhere. Just looking at guys who played the entire year with us, also excluding Fiala, Boldy, Dewar, or any other rookies (by my count, a pool of 13), 11 guys either set career highs in goals or points, or were on pace to.

Minny fans won't like it but I think this is about where Fiala's value is. All this assuming you think like I do and think that Boucher wasn't worth the 10th pick last year

My assumption was that nobody thinks Boucher was worth the 10th last season. I would love to hear why if anyone thinks differently.

I think the Kaprizov and GREEF lines can stay at relatively the same pace. The 4th line is a 4th line and they are all about the same.

I’m very confident Fitz would do Stillman and 37 + 4th

Did your opinion on Fiala’s return change as a result of Guerins recent interview? Or is that a non factor in your eyes?

I personally didn’t think it would have a huge impact on value, but based on your post and the earlier one from TanSor, I’m starting to wonder if I’m just being naive.

My thoughts on this are it's just the pendulum swinging back the other way for Fiala trade values as an over reaction. The opposite effect as fans asking for 2oa based on something NJD's GM said before the lotto.

In the real world. GMs all know whatever another GM says to the press means nothing. Those interviews are just the dog and pony show part of their job.

I've long felt that Guerin wouldn't be after the type of return we as fans are. To me, if the interview confirmed one thing, it's that Guerin wants Fiala gone ASAP, has no more patience left for him, if he ever had any.

When I say I wouldn't trade Fiala without Holtz or the #7 pick or whatever top asset coming back, that's me saying if I were the GM, I'd sign him unless those pieces were on the table. I don't think Guerin was ever going to get those pieces if he traded Fiala, and as I said, with Guerin seemingly reinforcing the idea that he wants Fiala gone ASAP, this is the type of deal I expect to happen, because if Ottawa says #7 isn't on the table, that's not going to be a dealbreaker for Guerin like it would be to me.

Gotcha, that makes sense. Hence the “realistic” part of the title, I suppose - ie what you expect from him vs. what you yourself would do.

It’s an interesting argument. IMO, these guys are emotional and not always as clinical about their decision making as you see in other, non-sports related professions - so it adds a wildcard element that’s hard to predict.

I really don’t know what to expect at this point. Trying to stay cautiously optimistic, but some doubt is definitely creeping in after reading others’ takes.

I hope so. That was my first reaction/assumption. Just posturing GM speak, part of the business, etc.

Here's what to expect. Nothing happens with Fiala until the draft has already started. The NHL wants it this way. Nothing can overshadow the Playoffs. Fiala's future will be part of the buildup to the draft coverage. It'll also give the talking heads at the draft some filler conversation for the first hour of the draft.

Yeah I just meant that more generally regarding the return, not when the trade will happen. I’ve always assumed it would be a draft day deal.

Playoff 1st + a (non-bluechip) prospect the Wild targets. I'm using the Reinhart trade as a baseline for Fiala.