Quoting: jnowariak
OK, but is he tho? Dude is 28, UFA at the end of the year and never had a 50 pt season.
Quoting: jnowariak
No, lehkonen had a positive rate in MTL, Coleman one in NJD, and Copp (who I don’t see as a great comp here) in WPG. xGF% accounts for how well you’re able to “tilt” the ice, good defensive players that start in their zone either get the puck or keep the other team to bad chances. That’s measured.
And as for future deals, that is absolutely factored in. Coleman, Goodrow, Hagel, and Lehkonen got firsts because they were team controlled for 2 or more seasons when the trade was made. And let’s say Copp is a comparable, he didn’t receive a first as a UFA.
Youre right, thats why they got 1sts+
Had CBrown been traded at the deadline last year, for a playoffs + another entire season, he would have been 1st+ as well.
A full season of CBrown to a contender expecting their pick to be in the mid-late 20s is worth a 1st, and renttion adds the "+"
Consider Coleman. He had 1 additional year left on his contract when he was traded. He was being paid 1.8M. (Same as CBrown in this scenario)