Forums/Armchair-GM

Just trying stuff

Créé par: Random2152
Date de création initiale: 16 mai 2022
Publié: 16 mai 2022
Équipe: 2022-23 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Explications
People are going to hate this because of recency bias but realistically this is what proper value looks like. Remains to be seen if the fit lines up

Gio takes the Spezza deal (if he doesn't then Walman takes the spot)

2LW is just a stand in for whoever we get with the remaining money

LTIR is traded
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
Liljegren, Timothy22 250 000 $
Engvall, Pierre21 750 000 $
Walman, Jake2875 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
Giordano, Mark1750 000 $
Spezza, Jason1750 000 $
Campbell, Jack24 500 000 $
Transactions
1.
TOR
  1. Lundell, Anton
FLA
  1. Sandin, Rasmus [Droits de RFA]
2.
TOR
  1. Walman, Jake [Droits de RFA]
DET
  1. Abruzzese, Nick
3.
TOR
  1. Ufko, Ryan [Liste de réserve]
  2. 2023 2e round pick (NSH)
NSH
  1. Kerfoot, Alexander
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2022
Logo de TOR
Logo de WPG
Logo de TOR
2023
Logo de TOR
Logo de NSH
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
2024
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
Logo de TOR
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2282 500 000 $79 123 950 $212 500 $850 000 $3 376 050 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de TOR
Bunting, Michael
950 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
Logo de TOR
Matthews, Auston
11 640 250 $
C
UFA - 2
Logo de TOR
Marner, Mitchell
10 903 000 $
AD
UFA - 3
Logo de TOR
Tavares, John
11 000 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo de FLA
Lundell, Anton
925 000 $
C, AG
RFA - 2
Logo de TOR
Anderson, Joey
750 000 $
AD
RFA - 1
Logo de TOR
Robertson, Nicholas
796 667 $
AG
RFA - 2
Logo de TOR
Kämpf, David
1 500 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de TOR
Nylander, William
6 962 366 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
Logo de TOR
Engvall, Pierre
1 750 000 $
AG, C
RFA
Logo de TOR
Spezza, Jason
750 000 $
C, AD
UFA
Logo de TOR
Steeves, Alex
834 167 $
C
RFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de TOR
Muzzin, Jake
5 625 000 $
DG
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de TOR
Brodie, TJ
5 000 000 $
DG/DD
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de TOR
Campbell, Jack
4 500 000 $
G
UFA
Logo de TOR
Rielly, Morgan
7 500 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo de TOR
Liljegren, Timothy
2 250 000 $
DD
RFA - 2
Logo de TOR
Källgren, Erik
750 000 $
G
RFA - 1
Logo de TOR
Giordano, Mark
750 000 $
DG
UFA - 2
Logo de TOR
Holl, Justin
2 000 000 $
DD
NTC
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de TOR
Simmonds, Wayne
900 000 $
AD, AG
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de TOR
Mrázek, Petr
3 800 000 $
G
NTC
UFA - 2
Walman, Jake
875 000 $
DG
RFA
Équipe de réserve
Logo de TOR
Clifford, Kyle
762 500 $ (0 $)
AG
UFA - 2

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16 mai à 9 h 32
#1
Lenny7
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If Lundell hadn't been injured this year, he likely would have knocked either Zegras or Bunting out of the top 3 for the Calder. Kid is dynamite. Given their cap issues, the fact that he's got 2 years left at $925 k makes him one of the most valuable players for that team. Not a lot of point going back and forth as to Sandin's value, because it just makes no sense for the Panthers in the first place.

Not that I think Abruzzese is going to be much more than a depth/3rd line ceiling type guy, but I'm curious as to why you'd move him for Walman?
16 mai à 9 h 40
#2
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Just Keep Swimming
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Quoting: Lenny7
If Lundell hadn't been injured this year, he likely would have knocked either Zegras or Bunting out of the top 3 for the Calder. Kid is dynamite. Given their cap issues, the fact that he's got 2 years left at $925 k makes him one of the most valuable players for that team. Not a lot of point going back and forth as to Sandin's value, because it just makes no sense for the Panthers in the first place.

Not that I think Abruzzese is going to be much more than a depth/3rd line ceiling type guy, but I'm curious as to why you'd move him for Walman?


I really like Walman. Think there might be a player there (think Bunting esq but on D), and in the event where we need a LHD I think he's a good bet for an absurdly cheap cost. Big upside and low risk if I'm wrong.

As an aside, we should also be looking at Ryan Ufko from the preds in a Kerfoot trade. Really like him too. Edit ima add an Ufko trade to the agm

As I said in desc recency bias is going to affect the eval but as good as Lundell has been Sandin has been matching it from the point. Both look to be excellent now and into the future. From a value perspective it should be close enough that a 1-for makes sense IF the teams both feel like they want to move around some young cheap assets to bolster their lineup from places of strength. Florida does have a ton of centre depth and a top 4 of weegar, forsling, ekblad and sandin would be among the best in the entire NHL
16 mai à 10 h 6
#3
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No thanks from NSH. If it were for Myers I wouldn't mind, but I can't see them valuing Holl enough to move either of those pieces for him.
16 mai à 10 h 17
#4
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That's a fair offer for Walman but any trade would have to wait until the offseason fog has cleared up for Detroit and we know what players we have on LD.
16 mai à 10 h 21
#5
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Quoting: gmgb
No thanks from NSH. If it were for Myers I wouldn't mind, but I can't see them valuing Holl enough to move either of those pieces for him.


Umm what?
16 mai à 10 h 33
#6
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Quoting: Random2152
Umm what?


I could see NSH taking a chance on Holl if TOR had interest in Phil Myers, but I don't see them giving up the kind of futures you're asking for here. Holl would have limited value to the Preds.
16 mai à 10 h 34
#7
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Quoting: gmgb
I could see NSH taking a chance on Holl if TOR had interest in Phil Myers, but I don't see them giving up the kind of futures you're asking for here. Holl would have limited value to the Preds.


Sir I never traded Nashville Holl
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16 mai à 10 h 38
#8
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Quoting: Random2152
Sir I never traded Nashville Holl


No you didn't, that's my mistake. Been glancing at so many TOR AGMs this morning, I can't keep them straight. My bad, but also no thanks on Kerfoot.
16 mai à 10 h 45
#9
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Quoting: gmgb
No you didn't, that's my mistake. Been glancing at so many TOR AGMs this morning, I can't keep them straight. My bad, but also no thanks on Kerfoot.


Not sure why not. He only costs 750k in real dollars. 50 point player who can slot in anywhere, pks, etc. A 2nd and a prospect is fine value (roughly equivalent to a late 1st) and the fit works for your team very nicely
16 mai à 10 h 57
#10
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Quoting: Random2152
Not sure why not. He only costs 750k in real dollars. 50 point player who can slot in anywhere, pks, etc. A 2nd and a prospect is fine value (roughly equivalent to a late 1st) and the fit works for your team very nicely


I think the asking price is too high, and I don't see a great fit for him with NSH. The Preds can't afford to squander anymore 2nds for middle of the roster players, and they lack depth at RD. I'm not eager to give up one of their better prospects at that position.

I think if NSH was looking at adding a middle six forward in the $3.5M range, it makes more sense to sign Marchment than make this trade. He's a much better fit for Hynes' style than Kerfoot, and NSH wouldn't have to give up any futures.
16 mai à 11 h 0
#11
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Quoting: gmgb
I think the asking price is too high, and I don't see a great fit for him with NSH. The Preds can't afford to squander anymore 2nds for middle of the roster players, and they lack depth at RD. I'm not eager to give up one of their better prospects at that position.

I think if NSH was looking at adding a middle six forward in the $3.5M range, it makes more sense to sign Marchment than make this trade. He's a much better fit for Hynes' style than Kerfoot, and NSH wouldn't have to give up any futures.


Oh boy I'd be scared about signing marchment to any term or money. Not convinced yet that this isn't just a crazy outlier season generated by system play
16 mai à 11 h 4
#12
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Easy pass for Detroit. Abruzze looks like nothing more than a middle six player at best. Walman was solid for Detroit after being acquired (was their 2nd best D according to analytics) and will likely serve as 4/5 D for foreseeable future
16 mai à 11 h 4
#13
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Quoting: Drw4209
Easy pass for Detroit. Abruzze looks like nothing more than a middle six player at best. Walman was solid for Detroit after being acquired and will likely serve as 4/5 D for foreseeable future


You seem to value 4/5 d strangely if you think a middle six player doesn't equal them in value
16 mai à 11 h 9
#14
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Quoting: Random2152
Oh boy I'd be scared about signing marchment to any term or money. Not convinced yet that this isn't just a crazy outlier season generated by system play


I think he could take Jeannot's place on the Herd line, freeing Tanner up to play in the top six. As far as taking a chance on guys coming off an outlier season, I'd rather risk giving Marchment a 2-3 yr contract at that cap hit, than give up a 2nd a good prospect for a year of Kerfoot.
16 mai à 11 h 26
#15
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Quoting: gmgb
I think he could take Jeannot's place on the Herd line, freeing Tanner up to play in the top six. As far as taking a chance on guys coming off an outlier season, I'd rather risk giving Marchment a 2-3 yr contract at that cap hit, than give up a 2nd a good prospect for a year of Kerfoot.


Idk seems like a lot of risk for a team that's kind of forced to try and win now.

And again, I want to stress how big the fact he only costs 750k is to a team like the preds who have tended to be stingy
16 mai à 12 h 8
#16
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Quoting: Random2152
Idk seems like a lot of risk for a team that's kind of forced to try and win now.

And again, I want to stress how big the fact he only costs 750k is to a team like the preds who have tended to be stingy


NSH isn't in win now mode. They're in more of a rebuild/revamp place right now. That's one of the reasons they shouldn't be overpaying for a rental forward who's fine and all, but doesn't really make them better.

FWIW, the Preds being "stingy" as you put it isn't really an issue. Poile just hates to be maxed out cap-wise, as he has a propensity for making blockbuster trades when you don't expect it. Cap space gives him the freedom to do that. Even if this trade takes place after TOR pays out Kerfoot's signing bonus, his cap hit is still at the very top end of what you want for a player like him.
16 mai à 19 h 17
#17
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Quoting: gmgb
NSH isn't in win now mode. They're in more of a rebuild/revamp place right now. That's one of the reasons they shouldn't be overpaying for a rental forward who's fine and all, but doesn't really make them better.

FWIW, the Preds being "stingy" as you put it isn't really an issue. Poile just hates to be maxed out cap-wise, as he has a propensity for making blockbuster trades when you don't expect it. Cap space gives him the freedom to do that. Even if this trade takes place after TOR pays out Kerfoot's signing bonus, his cap hit is still at the very top end of what you want for a player like him.


Listen I get not wanting a particular player, not arguing that but let's not pretend that if kerfoot was a pred and had an identical season this website would be talking him up like a savior and asking for the moon for him. Let's stop pretending that 3.5 is a lot for a player like him right now yeah?
16 mai à 19 h 53
#18
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Quoting: Random2152
Listen I get not wanting a particular player, not arguing that but let's not pretend that if kerfoot was a pred and had an identical season this website would be talking him up like a savior and asking for the moon for him. Let's stop pretending that 3.5 is a lot for a player like him right now yeah?


I'm sorry, does this website have a history of acting like NSH's forwards are saviors? News to me.

Kerfoot is a capable 3rd liner who can tread water in the top six when called upon. Like Sissons or Jarnkrok, except Kerfoot can't play center very well. $3.5M is a little high for that. I don't foresee we'd get the Kerfoot who had career high numbers in the regular season, if NSH tried him on the 2nd line with guys like Granlund, Kunin, or Tolvanen. It would probably look more like the Kerfoot we saw in the playoffs. He doesn't have the physicality to supplant either of Jeannot or Trenin on the 3rd line either. You're trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, by putting him in NSH. He has more value to TOR, who already has the high end skill up front, but has typically struggled to find the lower roster depth Kerfoot can provide them.
16 mai à 20 h 16
#19
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Quoting: gmgb
I'm sorry, does this website have a history of acting like NSH's forwards are saviors? News to me.

Kerfoot is a capable 3rd liner who can tread water in the top six when called upon. Like Sissons or Jarnkrok, except Kerfoot can't play center very well. $3.5M is a little high for that. I don't foresee we'd get the Kerfoot who had career high numbers in the regular season, if NSH tried him on the 2nd line with guys like Granlund, Kunin, or Tolvanen. It would probably look more like the Kerfoot we saw in the playoffs. He doesn't have the physicality to supplant either of Jeannot or Trenin on the 3rd line either. You're trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, by putting him in NSH. He has more value to TOR, who already has the high end skill up front, but has typically struggled to find the lower roster depth Kerfoot can provide them.


Its less about Nashville and more about the leafs, but looking at the nylander to nsh for Tanner jeannot trades kinda backs me up there.

Anyway my larger overall point is that he is going to return far more than the site expects him too (late 1st or equivalent) and everyone is acting like he won't even get close.
And sissions? Career high of 30 points is equivalent to kerfoot huh? This is exactly what I mean. Kerf is simultaneously massively underrated and overrated.

Which is to say his trade value is way more than the site expects but personally I'm not a fan of him.

Anyway I just like ufko. This trade wasn't even originally in the agm
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16 mai à 23 h 43
#20
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Quoting: Random2152
Its less about Nashville and more about the leafs, but looking at the nylander to nsh for Tanner jeannot trades kinda backs me up there.

Anyway my larger overall point is that he is going to return far more than the site expects him too (late 1st or equivalent) and everyone is acting like he won't even get close.
And sissions? Career high of 30 points is equivalent to kerfoot huh? This is exactly what I mean. Kerf is simultaneously massively underrated and overrated.

Which is to say his trade value is way more than the site expects but personally I'm not a fan of him.

Anyway I just like ufko. This trade wasn't even originally in the agm


Yeah, that recent Jeannot for Nylander phenomenon around here has been...odd. Like pretty much every NSH fan I know here, I feel it's ridiculously tilted in NSH's favour. But the Preds would never think about including Jeannot in a trade right now, so it's a moot point of conversation. FWIW, I think a fair offer for Nylander would be something more like Jeannot, a 1st, and a prospect TOR would value more than a 2nd (someone who's value would fall somewhere between Ufko's and Evangelista's).

I think Kerfoot could fetch a 2nd+ to the right buyer at the right time, in the real world. Maybe even a 1st as a deadline rental next season, but it's hard to picture TOR being a deadline seller then. As for CF, you have to assume Kerfoot-fatigue factors into his value here. Nearly every other fanbase has been declining daily Kerfoot offers here, since the Leafs got him. If actual NHL GMs had to field five calls a day from Dubas trying to trade them Kerfoot for pieces they don't want to move, they'd probably start to undervalue him too.

I get that they're players with different skill sets (Kerfoot being more offensive and better on wing, Sissons more defensive and the superior center, etc), but they really are very equal players. They're both best suited for 3rd line deployment, but won't drag their line down when asked to play in the top six. Don't underate the faceoff king who when injuries thrust him into being NSH's #1 center during the finals, held his own against Crosby's line, and is the straw that stirs the drink on Jeannot and Trenin's line.

I like Ufko too. The Preds have next to no depth on the right side beyond Carrier and Fabbro, but he's our best RD prospect. Honestly all NSH has right now is Ufko, Luke Prokop, and maybe Jack Matier with anything resembling any sort of NHL potential.
 
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