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Trading 2nd overall examples

Créé par: NHLfan10506
Équipe: 2022-23 Devils du New Jersey
Date de création initiale: 13 mai 2022
Publié: 13 mai 2022
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
In my previous post, I talked about the types of trades NJD would want in dealing away the #2 pick.

Read it here: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3241423

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This post is intended to give some examples of possible trades NJD could be interested in.

First, some historical context. There have only been two instances where a #2 overall pick has been traded for a player once that pick is known:

--- 2001: NY Islanders send the 2nd overall pick, 24-yr old LHD Zdena Chara and 27-yr old RW Bill Muckalt to Ottawa for Alexei Yashin. Ottawa selected Jason Spezza at #2.

--- 1993: Hartford Whalers sent veteran winger Sergei Markov, and picks #6, #45 and #58 to San Jose for the 2nd overall pick. Hartford selected Chris Pronger at #2

There were also a few instances where the #2 pick was traded long in advance of knowing where the pick would end up: 1976 (144 days before draft), 1998 (95 days), 2010 (210 days)

And a few instances where the pick was involved in picks-only transactions (1973, 1998, 1999)

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So I am offering a few different ideas here, some based on historical comps, some based on the previous post.

1. Using the 2001 comp.

i) 2nd - 2nd
ii) Chara - Siegenthaler (young defensive LHD on good contract, after 4th season)
iii) Muckalt - Johnsson (26yr old winger, both career 0.46 ppg players heading into last year of contract)
iv) Yashin - Tkachuk (Top winger without a contract, both top scorers in most recent seasons (Yashin was 11th in most recent season before trade, Tkachuk ws 8th. Over previous 6-seasons, Yashin was 33rd in points, 23rd in ppg, Tkachuk was 25th in points, 31st in ppg)


2. Using the 1993 comp:

i) 2nd - 2nd
ii) 6th - 6th
iii) 45th - 44th
iv) 58th - 90th
v) Makarov - Voracek (both older scoring wingers with 2-years remaining on contract. Makarov was 40th in NHL in previous four years, Voracek was 41st. Makarov was coming off 0.80 ppg season, Voracek a 0.78 ppg season)

(and yes, had to go back to 1993 and 2001 since their there were few recent comps...I am well aware that a lot has changed since then).


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Using other offers discussed on ACGM

3. Fiala, #27, #47 for #2, #197: If you use the draft pick value chart, this would infer that Fiala's value is similar to that of the 6th overall pick:

#2 overall = 12.3
#197 overall = 0.2
#27 overall = 3.2
#47 overall = 1.7
Fiala = 12.3 + 0.2 - 3.2 - 1.7 = 7.6 (6th overall = 7.6)


4. Meier, #11, #203 for #2, #69, #165: If you use the draft pick value chart, this would infer that Meier's value is similar to that of the 6th overall pick:

#2 overall = 12.3
#69 overall = 0.9
#165 overall = 0.2
#11 overall = 5.7
#203 overall = 0.1
Meier = 12.3 +0.9 +0.2 - 5.7 - 0.1 = 7.6 (6th overall = 7.6)


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If you have better comps...better ways to construct fair deal, please offer it. I know these methods are limited in what they can do. But just asking for the Devils best pick and best prospect is even less tied to reality. "Starts with Holtz and your 1st" is getting a little old...
Transactions
1.
NJD
  1. Tkachuk, Matthew [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
See 2001 comp above
CGY
  1. Johnsson, Andreas
  2. Siegenthaler, Jonas
  3. Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (NJD)
2.
NJD
  1. Voracek, Jakub
  2. Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (CHI)
  3. Choix de 2e ronde en 2022 (CBJ)
  4. Choix de 3e ronde en 2022 (TBL)
Détails additionnels:
see 1993 comp above
CBJ
    2022 1st round pick (NJD)
    3.
    NJD
    1. Fiala, Kevin [Droits de RFA]
    2. Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (MIN)
    3. Choix de 2e ronde en 2022 (VAN)
    Détails additionnels:
    Valuing Fiala equal to 6th overall pick
    MIN
      2022 1st round pick (NJD)
      2022 7th round pick (NJD)
      4.
      NJD
      1. Meier, Timo
      2. Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (SJS)
      3. Choix de 7e ronde en 2022 (SJS)
      Détails additionnels:
      Valuing Meier equal to 6th overall pick
      SJS
        2022 1st round pick (NJD)
        2022 3rd round pick (NJD)
        2022 6th round pick (NJD)
        Rachats de contrats
        Frais appliqués
        Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
        2022
        Logo de CHI
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        2023
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        2024
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        TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
        2082 500 000 $57 863 333 $0 $2 215 000 $24 636 667 $
        Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
        C, AG, AD
        UFA - 1
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        8 000 000 $8 000 000 $
        C
        UFA - 8
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        894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance400 000 $$400K)
        AD, C
        RFA - 2
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        894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
        AD, AG
        RFA - 3
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        7 250 000 $7 250 000 $
        C
        UFA - 5
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        4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
        AG, AD
        UFA - 1
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        863 333 $863 333 $
        AG
        RFA - 2
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        1 825 000 $1 825 000 $
        AG, C
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        850 833 $850 833 $ (Bonis de performance82 500 $$82K)
        AD, C
        RFA - 2
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        925 000 $925 000 $
        AG, AD
        RFA - 2
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        975 000 $975 000 $
        C
        RFA - 1
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        825 000 $825 000 $
        AD
        UFA - 1
        Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        3 166 667 $3 166 667 $
        DG
        UFA - 1
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
        DD
        NMC
        UFA - 6
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        2 800 000 $2 800 000 $
        G
        UFA - 1
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        795 000 $795 000 $ (Bonis de performance82 500 $$82K)
        DG
        RFA - 1
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        4 166 666 $4 166 666 $
        DD
        UFA - 1
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        4 125 000 $4 125 000 $
        G
        UFA - 1
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance400 000 $$400K)
        DG/DD
        RFA - 1
        Logo de Devils du New Jersey
        894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance400 000 $$400K)
        DG
        RFA - 3
        Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
        Logo de Blue Jackets de Columbus
        8 250 000 $8 250 000 $
        AD, AG
        UFA - 2
        Logo de Sharks de San Jose
        3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
        AG, AD
        UFA - 1

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        13 mai 2022 à 11 h 44
        #1
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        lmao cbj pass
        13 mai 2022 à 11 h 45
        #2
        Banni
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        Minnesota will just deal with another team. They aren't trading giving up their 1st round pick, and early 2nd round pick in addition to fiala to get new Jersey 1st round pick according to you
        13 mai 2022 à 11 h 57
        #3
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        Lol jackets decline and block your number
        13 mai 2022 à 12 h 14
        #4
        EklundCelebriniSmith
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        Modifié 13 mai 2022 à 12 h 20
        This trade makes no sense for SJS.
        They lose more than they gain from the offer.

        I disagree with most guys above tho, I’d tweak the offer a bit if I’m Columbus to give up less, but if I’m Columbus I’d be willing to move up.
        Bias_it_self et Shorkz a aimé ceci.
        13 mai 2022 à 12 h 36
        #5
        Temple of Ferraro
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        Lol Sharks trade. You’re not getting that value, at least from the Sharks
        glarson17 et Shorkz a aimé ceci.
        13 mai 2022 à 12 h 42
        #6
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        Flames aint trading Tkchuck hes a future captian
        13 mai 2022 à 12 h 51
        #7
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        You think the sharks give up Meier and the 11th overall for the 2nd overall? That’s terrible value for San Jose
        Shorkz et Bias_it_self a aimé ceci.
        13 mai 2022 à 12 h 55
        #8
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        Quoting: yikes
        This trade makes no sense for SJS.
        They lose more than they gain from the offer.

        I disagree with most guys above tho, I’d tweak the offer a bit if I’m Columbus to give up less, but if I’m Columbus I’d be willing to move up.


        6 is a good spot in this draft as there’s a drop off after the top 7. There also isn’t a bonafide 2nd pick yet. If Jarmo really likes a player that he doesn’t think will fall to 6 then maybe. No chance voracek will be in the deal.
        13 mai 2022 à 13 h 4
        #9
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        Quoting: yikes
        This trade makes no sense for SJS.
        They lose more than they gain from the offer.

        I disagree with most guys above tho, I’d tweak the offer a bit if I’m Columbus to give up less, but if I’m Columbus I’d be willing to move up.


        Quoting: Bias_it_self
        Lol Sharks trade. You’re not getting that value, at least from the Sharks


        Quoting: glarson17
        You think the sharks give up Meier and the 11th overall for the 2nd overall? That’s terrible value for San Jose


        I pinned both Fiala and Meier values at equal to #6 pick (if NJD would not have traded #5 for either, I took highest possible value below #5). Then I just used the draft pick value chart to fill in the rest.

        Check my math….maybe my calculations were off.
        HeadHighSauce a aimé ceci.
        13 mai 2022 à 13 h 10
        #10
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        That doesnt help Calgary at all, so easy no
        13 mai 2022 à 13 h 10
        #11
        EklundCelebriniSmith
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        Quoting: NHLfan10506
        I pinned both Fiala and Meier values at equal to #6 pick (if NJD would not have traded #5 for either, I took highest possible value below #5). Then I just used the draft pick value chart to fill in the rest.

        Check my math….maybe my calculations were off.


        Humans beings aren’t math. And sports aren’t all numbers.

        I don’t think you’re off by being crazy or anything. I’m just saying a player who dragged his team to nearly a wild card contention is more valuable to that same team who’s desire is to win now.

        Picks are always a risk and as mentioned by;
        Quoting: SK101
        6 is a good spot in this draft as there’s a drop off after the top 7. There also isn’t a bonafide 2nd pick yet. If Jarmo really likes a player that he doesn’t think will fall to 6 then maybe. No chance voracek will be in the deal.


        Picks are never a guarantee- and this draft imo isn’t fantastic as I don’t even love Wright. Anyone from 2-15 can hit big. 2023 draft is a different story. SJS could could an AHL lifer or the best player in the draft at 11. Savoie could be the best player in the draft and he may fall outside of 5.

        No team is gonna give up an all star (Meier) plus 11th plus plus for the 2nd unless they’re desperate and blind which SJ isn’t - as they’ve clearly stated their intentions.
        Shorkz et NHLfan10506 a aimé ceci.
        13 mai 2022 à 13 h 33
        #12
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        Quoting: yikes
        Humans beings aren’t math. And sports aren’t all numbers.

        I don’t think you’re off by being crazy or anything. I’m just saying a player who dragged his team to nearly a wild card contention is more valuable to that same team who’s desire is to win now.

        Picks are always a risk and as mentioned by;

        Picks are never a guarantee- and this draft imo isn’t fantastic as I don’t even love Wright. Anyone from 2-15 can hit big. 2023 draft is a different story. SJS could could an AHL lifer or the best player in the draft at 11. Savoie could be the best player in the draft and he may fall outside of 5.

        No team is gonna give up an all star (Meier) plus 11th plus plus for the 2nd unless they’re desperate and blind which SJ isn’t - as they’ve clearly stated their intentions.


        agreed! and where are you getting your math? Meier is 25 entering his prime is a top line power forward with 35-40 goal and 1.15-1.2 ppg expectation. his value would easily be one of your top prospects and the 2nd overall in this draft. this goes back to the old adage a Bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. a proven 30+ goal scoring power forward is clearly worth more than a top pick in a weaker draft and an unproven prospect.
        and if you disagree think about the flip, if you had Meier would you trade him and your 11OA just to move up to the 2nd? Hell would you trade Meier for the 2nd period?
        13 mai 2022 à 13 h 55
        #13
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        Quoting: Rob32sjsharks
        agreed! and where are you getting your math? Meier is 25 entering his prime is a top line power forward with 35-40 goal and 1.15-1.2 ppg expectation. his value would easily be one of your top prospects and the 2nd overall in this draft. this goes back to the old adage a Bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. a proven 30+ goal scoring power forward is clearly worth more than a top pick in a weaker draft and an unproven prospect.
        and if you disagree think about the flip, if you had Meier would you trade him and your 11OA just to move up to the 2nd? Hell would you trade Meier for the 2nd period?


        To be fair, he was 0.57 ppg last year and 0.70 ppg year before that.
        And he has an unusual contract.

        If I were rebuilding and about to start rebuilding, I would absolutely trade Meier for #2 overall.
        But I doubt any team holding #2 overall would offer that pick for him.
        13 mai 2022 à 14 h 21
        #14
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        Quoting: NHLfan10506
        I pinned both Fiala and Meier values at equal to #6 pick (if NJD would not have traded #5 for either, I took highest possible value below #5). Then I just used the draft pick value chart to fill in the rest.

        Check my math….maybe my calculations were off.


        I don’t see the difference in value from the 2nd overall and the 11th overall to be a ppg Timo Meier who’s 25yo. That’s just way off imo.
        13 mai 2022 à 14 h 28
        #15
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        Quoting: NHLfan10506
        To be fair, he was 0.57 ppg last year and 0.70 ppg year before that.
        And he has an unusual contract.

        If I were rebuilding and about to start rebuilding, I would absolutely trade Meier for #2 overall.
        But I doubt any team holding #2 overall would offer that pick for him.


        Lol no team would offer that for him? This is just getting ridiculous
        13 mai 2022 à 14 h 41
        #16
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        Quoting: glarson17
        Lol no team would offer that for him? This is just getting ridiculous


        A 2nd overall pick? No, I don't think any team that holds that pick would trade it for Meier.
        13 mai 2022 à 14 h 49
        #17
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        Quoting: glarson17
        I don’t see the difference in value from the 2nd overall and the 11th overall to be a ppg Timo Meier who’s 25yo. That’s just way off imo.


        There may be very little difference between pick #11 and #20....but huge difference between #2 and #11.

        Tier I (4): Wright, Cooley, Nemec, Slafkovsky
        Tier II (3): Kemell, Jiricek, Savoie
        Tier III (2): Lekkerimaki, Nazar
        Tier IV: (~20): Lambert, Gauthier, Mintyukov, Pickering, Chesley, Kasper, Ostlund, Howard, Miroshnichenko, McGroarty, Geekie, Yurov, Ohgren, Mateychuk, Kulich, Casey, Bichsel, Goyette, Hamara, Luneau
        13 mai 2022 à 15 h 7
        #18
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        Quoting: NHLfan10506
        There may be very little difference between pick #11 and #20....but huge difference between #2 and #11.

        Tier I (4): Wright, Cooley, Nemec, Slafkovsky
        Tier II (3): Kemell, Jiricek, Savoie
        Tier III (2): Lekkerimaki, Nazar
        Tier IV: (~20): Lambert, Gauthier, Mintyukov, Pickering, Chesley, Kasper, Ostlund, Howard, Miroshnichenko, McGroarty, Geekie, Yurov, Ohgren, Mateychuk, Kulich, Casey, Bichsel, Goyette, Hamara, Luneau


        There’s really not as much parody in this draft value after 1. The difference in 9 picks is not a top player in the league, there’s just zero chance anyone would do that. Would you be willing to give up Holtz to move up 9 spots? Or Bratt? It just is ridiculous
        13 mai 2022 à 15 h 10
        #19
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        Quoting: glarson17
        There’s really not as much parody in this draft value after 1. The difference in 9 picks is not a top player in the league, there’s just zero chance anyone would do that. Would you be willing to give up Holtz to move up 9 spots? Or Bratt? It just is ridiculous


        There is not much parody in this draft. Nor parity.
        13 mai 2022 à 15 h 24
        #20
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        Quoting: NHLfan10506
        There is not much parody in this draft. Nor parity.


        Excuse me. I guess I can make the assumption that the fact that you ignored my point is because I may be right?
        13 mai 2022 à 15 h 26
        #21
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        Quoting: NHLfan10506
        To be fair, he was 0.57 ppg last year and 0.70 ppg year before that.
        And he has an unusual contract.

        If I were rebuilding and about to start rebuilding, I would absolutely trade Meier for #2 overall.
        But I doubt any team holding #2 overall would offer that pick for him.


        But the sharks are not rebuilding (although i want them to), and he is only 25. isn't that a guy you would want to build around?
        13 mai 2022 à 15 h 46
        #22
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        Quoting: glarson17
        Excuse me. I guess I can make the assumption that the fact that you ignored my point is because I may be right?


        I didn’t ignore it. I disagree.
        There are big jumps this year around 3/4 and another -around 7/8. It is a top-heavy draft.

        Top-5 picks are rarely traded for players (never in cap era). Top-2 picks, only twice ever.

        Star wingers are moved every year.
        That is the point.
        13 mai 2022 à 16 h 3
        #23
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        Quoting: NHLfan10506
        I didn’t ignore it. I disagree.
        There are big jumps this year around 3/4 and another -around 7/8. It is a top-heavy draft.

        Top-5 picks are rarely traded for players (never in cap era). Top-2 picks, only twice ever.

        Star wingers are moved every year.
        That is the point.


        So you would trade Bratt and a 1st to move up 9 spots?
        13 mai 2022 à 16 h 10
        #24
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        Quoting: glarson17
        So you would trade Bratt and a 1st to move up 9 spots?

        No, but if San Jose had #2 pick, I wouldn’t ask them for Eklund and #2 for the final year of Bratt’s deal.
        13 mai 2022 à 17 h 7
        #25
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        Quoting: NHLfan10506
        No, but if San Jose had #2 pick, I wouldn’t ask them for Eklund and #2 for the final year of Bratt’s deal.


        That’s exactly my point, and I never asked for a 1st and a prospect for the signing rights of a player?
         
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