In my previous post, I talked about the types of trades NJD would want in dealing away the #2 pick.
Read it here: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3241423
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This post is intended to give some examples of possible trades NJD could be interested in.
First, some historical context. There have only been two instances where a #2 overall pick has been traded for a player once that pick is known:
--- 2001: NY Islanders send the 2nd overall pick, 24-yr old LHD Zdena Chara and 27-yr old RW Bill Muckalt to Ottawa for Alexei Yashin. Ottawa selected Jason Spezza at #2.
--- 1993: Hartford Whalers sent veteran winger Sergei Markov, and picks #6, #45 and #58 to San Jose for the 2nd overall pick. Hartford selected Chris Pronger at #2
There were also a few instances where the #2 pick was traded long in advance of knowing where the pick would end up: 1976 (144 days before draft), 1998 (95 days), 2010 (210 days)
And a few instances where the pick was involved in picks-only transactions (1973, 1998, 1999)
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So I am offering a few different ideas here, some based on historical comps, some based on the previous post.
1. Using the 2001 comp.
i) 2nd - 2nd
ii) Chara - Siegenthaler (young defensive LHD on good contract, after 4th season)
iii) Muckalt - Johnsson (26yr old winger, both career 0.46 ppg players heading into last year of contract)
iv) Yashin - Tkachuk (Top winger without a contract, both top scorers in most recent seasons (Yashin was 11th in most recent season before trade, Tkachuk ws 8th. Over previous 6-seasons, Yashin was 33rd in points, 23rd in ppg, Tkachuk was 25th in points, 31st in ppg)
2. Using the 1993 comp:
i) 2nd - 2nd
ii) 6th - 6th
iii) 45th - 44th
iv) 58th - 90th
v) Makarov - Voracek (both older scoring wingers with 2-years remaining on contract. Makarov was 40th in NHL in previous four years, Voracek was 41st. Makarov was coming off 0.80 ppg season, Voracek a 0.78 ppg season)
(and yes, had to go back to 1993 and 2001 since their there were few recent comps...I am well aware that a lot has changed since then).
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Using other offers discussed on ACGM
3. Fiala, #27, #47 for #2, #197: If you use the draft pick value chart, this would infer that Fiala's value is similar to that of the 6th overall pick:
4. Meier, #11, #203 for #2, #69, #165: If you use the draft pick value chart, this would infer that Meier's value is similar to that of the 6th overall pick:
If you have better comps...better ways to construct fair deal, please offer it. I know these methods are limited in what they can do. But just asking for the Devils best pick and best prospect is even less tied to reality. "Starts with Holtz and your 1st" is getting a little old...
Minnesota will just deal with another team. They aren't trading giving up their 1st round pick, and early 2nd round pick in addition to fiala to get new Jersey 1st round pick according to you
This trade makes no sense for SJS.
They lose more than they gain from the offer.
I disagree with most guys above tho, I’d tweak the offer a bit if I’m Columbus to give up less, but if I’m Columbus I’d be willing to move up.
6 is a good spot in this draft as there’s a drop off after the top 7. There also isn’t a bonafide 2nd pick yet. If Jarmo really likes a player that he doesn’t think will fall to 6 then maybe. No chance voracek will be in the deal.
This trade makes no sense for SJS.
They lose more than they gain from the offer.
I disagree with most guys above tho, I’d tweak the offer a bit if I’m Columbus to give up less, but if I’m Columbus I’d be willing to move up.
Quoting: Bias_it_self
Lol Sharks trade. You’re not getting that value, at least from the Sharks
Quoting: glarson17
You think the sharks give up Meier and the 11th overall for the 2nd overall? That’s terrible value for San Jose
I pinned both Fiala and Meier values at equal to #6 pick (if NJD would not have traded #5 for either, I took highest possible value below #5). Then I just used the draft pick value chart to fill in the rest.
I pinned both Fiala and Meier values at equal to #6 pick (if NJD would not have traded #5 for either, I took highest possible value below #5). Then I just used the draft pick value chart to fill in the rest.
Check my math….maybe my calculations were off.
Humans beings aren’t math. And sports aren’t all numbers.
I don’t think you’re off by being crazy or anything. I’m just saying a player who dragged his team to nearly a wild card contention is more valuable to that same team who’s desire is to win now.
Picks are always a risk and as mentioned by;
Quoting: SK101
6 is a good spot in this draft as there’s a drop off after the top 7. There also isn’t a bonafide 2nd pick yet. If Jarmo really likes a player that he doesn’t think will fall to 6 then maybe. No chance voracek will be in the deal.
Picks are never a guarantee- and this draft imo isn’t fantastic as I don’t even love Wright. Anyone from 2-15 can hit big. 2023 draft is a different story. SJS could could an AHL lifer or the best player in the draft at 11. Savoie could be the best player in the draft and he may fall outside of 5.
No team is gonna give up an all star (Meier) plus 11th plus plus for the 2nd unless they’re desperate and blind which SJ isn’t - as they’ve clearly stated their intentions.
Humans beings aren’t math. And sports aren’t all numbers.
I don’t think you’re off by being crazy or anything. I’m just saying a player who dragged his team to nearly a wild card contention is more valuable to that same team who’s desire is to win now.
Picks are always a risk and as mentioned by;
Picks are never a guarantee- and this draft imo isn’t fantastic as I don’t even love Wright. Anyone from 2-15 can hit big. 2023 draft is a different story. SJS could could an AHL lifer or the best player in the draft at 11. Savoie could be the best player in the draft and he may fall outside of 5.
No team is gonna give up an all star (Meier) plus 11th plus plus for the 2nd unless they’re desperate and blind which SJ isn’t - as they’ve clearly stated their intentions.
agreed! and where are you getting your math? Meier is 25 entering his prime is a top line power forward with 35-40 goal and 1.15-1.2 ppg expectation. his value would easily be one of your top prospects and the 2nd overall in this draft. this goes back to the old adage a Bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. a proven 30+ goal scoring power forward is clearly worth more than a top pick in a weaker draft and an unproven prospect.
and if you disagree think about the flip, if you had Meier would you trade him and your 11OA just to move up to the 2nd? Hell would you trade Meier for the 2nd period?
agreed! and where are you getting your math? Meier is 25 entering his prime is a top line power forward with 35-40 goal and 1.15-1.2 ppg expectation. his value would easily be one of your top prospects and the 2nd overall in this draft. this goes back to the old adage a Bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. a proven 30+ goal scoring power forward is clearly worth more than a top pick in a weaker draft and an unproven prospect.
and if you disagree think about the flip, if you had Meier would you trade him and your 11OA just to move up to the 2nd? Hell would you trade Meier for the 2nd period?
To be fair, he was 0.57 ppg last year and 0.70 ppg year before that.
And he has an unusual contract.
If I were rebuilding and about to start rebuilding, I would absolutely trade Meier for #2 overall.
But I doubt any team holding #2 overall would offer that pick for him.
I pinned both Fiala and Meier values at equal to #6 pick (if NJD would not have traded #5 for either, I took highest possible value below #5). Then I just used the draft pick value chart to fill in the rest.
Check my math….maybe my calculations were off.
I don’t see the difference in value from the 2nd overall and the 11th overall to be a ppg Timo Meier who’s 25yo. That’s just way off imo.
To be fair, he was 0.57 ppg last year and 0.70 ppg year before that.
And he has an unusual contract.
If I were rebuilding and about to start rebuilding, I would absolutely trade Meier for #2 overall.
But I doubt any team holding #2 overall would offer that pick for him.
Lol no team would offer that for him? This is just getting ridiculous
There’s really not as much parody in this draft value after 1. The difference in 9 picks is not a top player in the league, there’s just zero chance anyone would do that. Would you be willing to give up Holtz to move up 9 spots? Or Bratt? It just is ridiculous
There’s really not as much parody in this draft value after 1. The difference in 9 picks is not a top player in the league, there’s just zero chance anyone would do that. Would you be willing to give up Holtz to move up 9 spots? Or Bratt? It just is ridiculous
There is not much parody in this draft. Nor parity.
To be fair, he was 0.57 ppg last year and 0.70 ppg year before that.
And he has an unusual contract.
If I were rebuilding and about to start rebuilding, I would absolutely trade Meier for #2 overall.
But I doubt any team holding #2 overall would offer that pick for him.
But the sharks are not rebuilding (although i want them to), and he is only 25. isn't that a guy you would want to build around?