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Trying to be realistic on Fiala

Créé par: NHLfan10506
Équipe: 2022-23 Devils du New Jersey
Date de création initiale: 9 mai 2022
Publié: 9 mai 2022
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
History matters. Cap matters. Facts matter.


1. Fiala is currently unsigned. If he is (a) not signed long-term in MIN and (b) he gets qualified by July 12th, he would be UFA next summer if he signs his QO. He would officially become a rental and rental prices/comps should be used (once the QO is signed, he cannot add an extension on a 1-year deal until January).

For the time being, he is an RFA, who are often discounted in trade market. Look at Toews, Reinhart, Buchnevich, Nedeljkovic Burakovsky, etc. All were challenges to extend.


2. In the cap era, there have been zero (0) trades with a known Top-5 Pick. For any player. Also, zero (0) trades with a top-20 prospect for an RFA.

Comps matter. Teravainen/Bickell set the market for Crouse/Bolland. Varlomov deal set the market for Cory Schneider trade. David Rundblat set the market for Griffin Reinhart deal. Johanssen sets benchmark for Nyquist. And so on.


3. Even if you go back to pre-cap era, you'd have to go back to Alexei Yahsin trade in 2001 to come up with a comp similar to Minnesota's ask. Yashin was #6 and #11 in scoring in his prior two seasons (and runner-up for Hart Trophy). Fiala was #76 and #22.


4. Until Fiala is signed, Buchnevich and Reinhart are our best two recent comps to work with here. Both for a #30-55 pick and decent prospect. To scale up to Fiala (if one makes argument that Fiala is better than Reinhart or Buchnevich), then add a proportional piece.

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And if you are here to just say, "no way, it starts with Holtz plus a 1st", just go back to the top and read again. Or justify your reasoning using evidence that NHL teams pay such prices.

-----

And for Devils fans, if the worry is someone will beat our offer, I'd say let them. Fiala doesn't really fit our GM's quest for "heavier skill" anyway.
Transactions
1.
NJD
    Fiala, Kevin
    2022 1st round pick (MIN - #27)
    MIN
      Boqvist, Jesper
      2022 1st round pick (NJD - #5)
      2023 3rd round pick (NJD)
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        Fiala, Kevin
        MIN
          Zacha, Pavel
          2022 2nd round pick (NJD - #37)
          2023 2nd round pick (NJD)
          3.
          NJD
            Fiala, Kevin
            MIN
              2023 1st round pick (NJD) with playoff protection or top-10 protection.
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              9 mai 2022 à 15 h 47
              #26
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              Quoting: iAce
              I appreciate a constructive post here. As a Wild fan, lets touch on a few points. First, we ranked 3rd in prospect pipeline. Meaning a huge amount of B prospects doesn't do anything for us. Second, we are contending. Meaning we are looking for certain things back for players like Dumba/Fiala trades. Lastly, we draft very well thanks to Judd Brackett. Meaning we would want high draft picks. The draft proposals above are way better than most of the fan base. We have the same in the Wild community as well. Most of us are thankful for a guy like Fiala because this org has lacked scoring almost our entire existence.

              We have a log jam at forwards so any forwards that are traded need to work on a top 6 line combo. Even with that the Wild have players to fill in that role so it's not really needed at them moment due to Rossi coming up next year and not having a ton of UFA/RFA's. We also have our top 3 defense in place with Brodin, Spurgeon Dumba and potentially Middleton being resigned after the year is over. So a defender would have to be a high end player to add benefit to our roster.

              Trades like Foote, late first and a second rounder, does nothing really to intrigue the Wild. Foote won't make this roster unless its the 4th line and a late first has a very low probability of making a pro roster and a second round is the same. So trading Fiala for that proposal really does nothing for us.

              Proposals I think the Wild are targeting:

              Mercer+3rd for Fiala
              Luke Hughes+3rd for Fiala
              Boqvist+1st unprotected for Fiala

              These trades at least provide a foundation. Boqvist might not crack the roster but if there are injuries we could call him up. A first round pick gets us a prospect that could help us in time. I'd be more interested in no picks and getting back a Dawson Mercer or Luke Hughes because they add a young player that will make this club next year. It also allows us to make changes else where which adds a benefit where we may not need anything else besides that player.

              Example: A Mercer trade allows us to pencil him in on the Boldy line with Rossi and thus letting us move Freddy potentially. Or a Luke Hughes trade allows us to move Dumba for a winger we thing can fit into our top 6 role. So getting a pick isn't needed as much because we could move other players for picks most likely.

              TLDR: The Boqvist plus the number 5 overall would be the only pick I would entertain because it sets us up with a prospect that we like in our system. I'd rather have a high end talent like Mercer or Hughes for Fiala because of their cap hit but I understand NJD might not want to move these pieces. I do think the Wild could keep Fiala with little to no effort but we would loose the depth needed to contend. I also think this trade will be very difficult as Fiala is probably the top 5 fan favorite of all time for us.


              FULLSTOP: WE ARE NOT GETTING HUGHES.

              If push comes to shove and there's a bidding war maybe we can pry Mercer out of there. But I find it unlikely. Holtz is the most plausible, but he's the piece coming back we for sure aren't getting a top ten pick back ontop of him... more likely NJ's 2nd rounder instead.

              If we get the 1st, we're getting a lesser prospect back on top of it.
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              9 mai 2022 à 15 h 54
              #27
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              Quoting: RazWild
              FULLSTOP: WE ARE NOT GETTING HUGHES.

              If push comes to shove and there's a bidding war maybe we can pry Mercer out of there. But I find it unlikely. Holtz is the most plausible, but he's the piece coming back we for sure aren't getting a top ten pick back ontop of him... more likely NJ's 2nd rounder instead.

              If we get the 1st, we're getting a lesser prospect back on top of it.


              Why would I full stop on Luke Hughes? There's really only 3 pieces from NJD that are even remotely tradeable that would help the Wild. Mercer, Luke Hughes and their first rounder this year unprotected. I don't think they are willing to move Holtz. Holtz has a higher ceiling than Mercer. Jack and Nico are really off the table and should be.
              9 mai 2022 à 16 h 19
              #28
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              Quoting: iAce
              Why would I full stop on Luke Hughes? There's really only 3 pieces from NJD that are even remotely tradeable that would help the Wild. Mercer, Luke Hughes and their first rounder this year unprotected. I don't think they are willing to move Holtz. Holtz has a higher ceiling than Mercer. Jack and Nico are really off the table and should be.


              Mercer has shown that he can play in the NHL. Same as Boldy or Caufield. Holtz has yet to crack the NHL roster on a respectfully close to playoff contention but still one of the worst teams in the league. Mercer is therefore a certifiable proven NHL player who carries more value and is no longer considered a prospect. Regardless of Holtz's upside. Especially for a teaming looking to make the playoffs next year.

              New Jersey by trading for Fiala are making a Win-now move, so by moving a player that might become as good as Fiala in 3+ years is more favorable than moving a important piece off their active roster to do it. They are getting the better player now. That is why Holtz is more plausible over Mercer. Holtz is still a prospect.

              As for Hughes. Two reasons.

              1) They're not going to trade their young 20 year old 1C's younger brother and risk pissing him off.

              2) Hughes is their #1 prospect.

              Would you trade Rossi for William Nylander? Same thing.
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              9 mai 2022 à 16 h 32
              #29
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              Modifié 9 mai 2022 à 16 h 38
              Quoting: RazWild
              Mercer has shown that he can play in the NHL. Same as Boldy or Caufield. Holtz has yet to crack the NHL roster on a respectfully close to playoff contention but still one of the worst teams in the league. Mercer is therefore a certifiable proven NHL player who carries more value and is no longer considered a prospect. Regardless of Holtz's upside. Especially for a teaming looking to make the playoffs next year.

              New Jersey by trading for Fiala are making a Win-now move, so by moving a player that might become as good as Fiala in 3+ years is more favorable than moving a important piece off their active roster to do it. They are getting the better player now. That is why Holtz is more plausible over Mercer. Holtz is still a prospect.

              As for Hughes. Two reasons.

              1) They're not going to trade their young 20 year old 1C's younger brother and risk pissing him off.

              2) Hughes is their #1 prospect.

              Would you trade Rossi for William Nylander? Same thing.


              The trading of Luke Hughes pissing his brother off makes a lot of sense because we have Zuccarello. But we shouldn't be afraid of asking for a top tier prospect and little to no draft pick. It also depends on what Judd Brackett thinks. I may think Luke Hughes is a stud but Brackett could think the opposite. I would consider a straight up trade of Hughes for Fiala a done deal trade. Holtz I would really like a pick of some sort like a 3rd -7th but if it's not included then we are getting a prospect this team likes and I trust Brackett/BG.

              Also, if we were set at center and were close on pushing for a playoff run yes I would trade Rossi. I like him but he's unproven like Holtz and Hughes. Can Rossi be an elite 1c or 2c? Thats what we need. If we were making a play for a true 1c I would consider trading him. Or if I had Hughes and Hischier as my center I could afford to make that trade. There's too many variables to your last piece.
              9 mai 2022 à 16 h 36
              #30
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              A straight Fiala for 5oa trade is fair imo. It gives MN a choice of 2 or 3 players in the same ranking tier.
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              9 mai 2022 à 16 h 38
              #31
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              Quoting: Sabresguy1987
              So you believe he would prefer to be in new jersey over buffalo? why is that?


              I have no idea where he wants to play.
              I hope he wants to play in NJD ...but haven't seen anything on where he wants to be.
              9 mai 2022 à 16 h 43
              #32
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              Quoting: TanSor
              To be fair, Boqvist (or any winger) isn't a need for us either. We have a million winger prospects and I think the plan would be to have Rossi slot into Fiala's spot in the top 6 if he's moved.

              Don't think we'd move any of the GREEF line. I could maybe see Dewar or Duhaime being moved if they're a deal-breaker for the Devils, but neither will be anything more than 4th line guys that can play on your 3rd line in a pinch.


              Boqvist is a center...which at one point I believe was a need for MIN.
              Not sure if still the case.
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              9 mai 2022 à 16 h 55
              #33
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              Boqvist is a center...which at one point I believe was a need for MIN.
              Not sure if still the case.


              It's still the case but a 37.5% faceoff percent hurts his case for Minnesota as that is a big area of need as well. We are one of the worst teams at faceoffs. Hurts us in the playoffs. Plus Dewar could slot in but his faceoffs are really bad.
              9 mai 2022 à 17 h 0
              #34
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              Quoting: iAce
              The trading of Luke Hughes pissing his brother off makes a lot of sense because we have Zuccarello. But we shouldn't be afraid of asking for a top tier prospect and little to no draft pick. It also depends on what Judd Brackett thinks. I may think Luke Hughes is a stud but Brackett could think the opposite. I would consider a straight up trade of Hughes for Fiala a done deal trade. Holtz I would really like a pick of some sort like a 3rd -7th but if it's not included then we are getting a prospect this team likes and I trust Brackett/BG.

              Also, if we were set at center and were close on pushing for a playoff run yes I would trade Rossi. I like him but he's unproven like Holtz and Hughes. Can Rossi be an elite 1c or 2c? Thats what we need. If we were making a play for a true 1c I would consider trading him. Or if I had Hughes and Hischier as my center I could afford to make that trade. There's too many variables to your last piece.


              Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes, Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer, Jesper Bratt would not be options
              The 2022 1st or Alex Holtz could be options, but very very doubtful.
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              9 mai 2022 à 17 h 2
              #35
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              Quoting: iAce
              It's still the case but a 37.5% faceoff percent hurts his case for Minnesota as that is a big area of need as well. We are one of the worst teams at faceoffs. Hurts us in the playoffs. Plus Dewar could slot in but his faceoffs are really bad.


              Young players are rarely good on faceoffs.
              McLeod is our best, and among the league's best, but he is 4th line guy.
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              9 mai 2022 à 17 h 14
              #36
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes, Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer, Jesper Bratt would not be options
              The 2022 1st or Alex Holtz could be options, but very very doubtful.


              I think there is a fit here but it depends on where your pick comes in. If it falls into 1, 2, and 3 you probably keep it and say its a 2023 first which I wouldn't be interested in as you'll be in the playoffs with a player like Fiala added to your roster. Holtz intrigues me, I haven't scouted him much though to be honest.
              9 mai 2022 à 17 h 31
              #37
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              Quoting: Sabresguy1987
              So you believe he would prefer to be in new jersey over buffalo? why is that?


              No one really knows where Fiala would want to go but based on inferencing I feel like Fiala rather play with his fellow countryman Nico Hischier. They played well together for the Swiss internationally.
              9 mai 2022 à 17 h 39
              #38
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              Quoting: iAce
              I think there is a fit here but it depends on where your pick comes in. If it falls into 1, 2, and 3 you probably keep it and say its a 2023 first which I wouldn't be interested in as you'll be in the playoffs with a player like Fiala added to your roster. Holtz intrigues me, I haven't scouted him much though to be honest.


              Even if its 5, 6, 7, I doubt it gets moved.
              I wish we had an extra 1st to trade with like last couple of years.
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              9 mai 2022 à 17 h 48
              #39
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              Quoting: RazWild
              FULLSTOP: WE ARE NOT GETTING HUGHES.

              If push comes to shove and there's a bidding war maybe we can pry Mercer out of there. But I find it unlikely. Holtz is the most plausible, but he's the piece coming back we for sure aren't getting a top ten pick back ontop of him... more likely NJ's 2nd rounder instead.

              If we get the 1st, we're getting a lesser prospect back on top of it.


              Quoting: iAce
              Why would I full stop on Luke Hughes? There's really only 3 pieces from NJD that are even remotely tradeable that would help the Wild. Mercer, Luke Hughes and their first rounder this year unprotected. I don't think they are willing to move Holtz. Holtz has a higher ceiling than Mercer. Jack and Nico are really off the table and should be.


              Guys like Mercer, L Hughes, and Holtz won't be on the table for Fiala trade (along with J Hughes, Hischier, Hamilton, Bratt). The 5th pick is more likely to be offered. Fitzgerald said he's willing to trade the 5th pick, not any of those young guys. I could why people think Holtz could be on the table but it seems like a weird move to trade a young winger with a ton of potential for an older winger
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              9 mai 2022 à 17 h 54
              #40
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              Even if its 5, 6, 7, I doubt it gets moved.
              I wish we had an extra 1st to trade with like last couple of years.


              I don't think next years first will do anything because you will be so competitive so it comes back to prospect you're willing to give up to get Fiala. Is it Holtz and a small add? I do think there are other fits for Fiala but NJD seems like the best fit for him to compete right away and with a center he deserves. I would rule out Ottawa as i don't like their prospects as much and the consensus is they don't want to give up their first this year. Next year is Bedard so there will be so many protected picks thrown out. This trade seems to be the best I've seen that makes sense. Getting Brock home with his dad is a good human trade.

              https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3233844
              9 mai 2022 à 18 h 2
              #41
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              Quoting: Devil
              Guys like Mercer, L Hughes, and Holtz won't be on the table for Fiala trade (along with J Hughes, Hischier, Hamilton, Bratt). The 5th pick is more likely to be offered. Fitzgerald said he's willing to trade the 5th pick, not any of those young guys. I could why people think Holtz could be on the table but it seems like a weird move to trade a young winger with a ton of potential for an older winger


              It would probably be a draft day deal that would get it done. If there isn't a player the Wild like they probably don't make the trade. At five i don't see anyone jumping off the board that would want me to trade Fiala for. I'd move back in the draft and get a higher end prospect for him with a pick. In the end, the Wild will most likely trade Dumba for a few seconds and resign Fiala to a long term deal. Which makes the most sense.
              9 mai 2022 à 18 h 10
              #42
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              Quoting: Devil
              Guys like Mercer, L Hughes, and Holtz won't be on the table for Fiala trade (along with J Hughes, Hischier, Hamilton, Bratt). The 5th pick is more likely to be offered. Fitzgerald said he's willing to trade the 5th pick, not any of those young guys. I could why people think Holtz could be on the table but it seems like a weird move to trade a young winger with a ton of potential for an older winger


              Because you're hoping Holtz is potentially as good as Fiala is in 3 years time. Which there is no guarantee of. Fiala is the known and legitimate impact player.

              But by your own GM's admission, your team's goal is to compete for a playoff spot Next year. Not in three years time, where it's entirely likely that 2022 1st is close to making the roster or wondering if Holtz pans out, but next year.

              Fiala is the better player NOW. That fits your teams goals and franchise heading more than a prospect who has yet to stick on a NHL roster on one of the worst teams this year.

              Holtz is a young player close to being NHL ready and who's ELC would be highly valuable to making it through the next 3 years of deadcap.

              It's win-win for both sides involved.

              That said, the 1st could more beneficial due the increased flexibility of picking something that we want.
              9 mai 2022 à 20 h 1
              #43
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              Quoting: RazWild
              Because you're hoping Holtz is potentially as good as Fiala is in 3 years time. Which there is no guarantee of. Fiala is the known and legitimate impact player.

              But by your own GM's admission, your team's goal is to compete for a playoff spot Next year. Not in three years time, where it's entirely likely that 2022 1st is close to making the roster or wondering if Holtz pans out, but next year.

              Fiala is the better player NOW. That fits your teams goals and franchise heading more than a prospect who has yet to stick on a NHL roster on one of the worst teams this year.

              Holtz is a young player close to being NHL ready and who's ELC would be highly valuable to making it through the next 3 years of deadcap.

              It's win-win for both sides involved.

              That said, the 1st could more beneficial due the increased flexibility of picking something that we want.


              Holtz AAV
              2022-23: $925,000
              2023-24: $925,000
              2024-25: $925,000

              NJD guys to sign:
              2022: Bratt, Wood, Boqvist...new goalie...maybe a new winger
              2023: Sharangovich and four of our top-6 dmen (Severson, Siegenthaler, Graves, Smith)
              2024: Mercer+

              If Devils are going to complete, they will need to their ELCs too.
              9 mai 2022 à 20 h 41
              #44
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              Holtz AAV
              2022-23: $925,000
              2023-24: $925,000
              2024-25: $925,000

              NJD guys to sign:
              2022: Bratt, Wood, Boqvist...new goalie...maybe a new winger
              2023: Sharangovich and four of our top-6 dmen (Severson, Siegenthaler, Graves, Smith)
              2024: Mercer+

              If Devils are going to complete, they will need to their ELCs too.


              With respect, and I understand cap space fills up fast, but the Devils have $25.3M in open cap space to sign everyone this off-season and $56.1M next year. Even providing for that cap space shrinkage on long-term contracts, New Jersey has more than enough cap space for everyone on roster, potential acquisitions, and up and coming prospects if signed smartly.

              With the cap flexibility that the Devil's front office has going forward. ELC's aren't a necessity for a minimum of 4 years at least with smart management and contract negotiations.

              ELC's are a luxury bonus for the team that the team can use to better itself as it pushes for playoff/cup contention. Or move for more immediate help. Which is what I was describing.
              9 mai 2022 à 21 h 2
              #45
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              Quoting: RazWild
              With respect, and I understand cap space fills up fast, but the Devils have $25.3M in open cap space to sign everyone this off-season and $56.1M next year. Even providing for that cap space shrinkage on long-term contracts, New Jersey has more than enough cap space for everyone on roster, potential acquisitions, and up and coming prospects if signed smartly.

              With the cap flexibility that the Devil's front office has going forward. ELC's aren't a necessity for a minimum of 4 years at least with smart management and contract negotiations.

              ELC's are a luxury bonus for the team that the team can use to better itself as it pushes for playoff/cup contention. Or move for more immediate help. Which is what I was describing.


              Raises coming up before Holtz bridge deal
              Bratt ~$5m
              Goalie ~$4m (?)
              Severson ~$3m
              Siegenthaler ~$5m
              Sharangovich ~$3m
              Smith ~$1m

              It can get gobbled up quickly...especially if we are adding 2-3 new contracts this summer.
              10 mai 2022 à 12 h 54
              #46
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              Quoting: iAce
              I appreciate a constructive post here. As a Wild fan, lets touch on a few points. First, we ranked 3rd in prospect pipeline. Meaning a huge amount of B prospects doesn't do anything for us. Second, we are contending. Meaning we are looking for certain things back for players like Dumba/Fiala trades. Lastly, we draft very well thanks to Judd Brackett. Meaning we would want high draft picks. The draft proposals above are way better than most of the fan base. We have the same in the Wild community as well. Most of us are thankful for a guy like Fiala because this org has lacked scoring almost our entire existence.

              We have a log jam at forwards so any forwards that are traded need to work on a top 6 line combo. Even with that the Wild have players to fill in that role so it's not really needed at them moment due to Rossi coming up next year and not having a ton of UFA/RFA's. We also have our top 3 defense in place with Brodin, Spurgeon Dumba and potentially Middleton being resigned after the year is over. So a defender would have to be a high end player to add benefit to our roster.

              Trades like Foote, late first and a second rounder, does nothing really to intrigue the Wild. Foote won't make this roster unless its the 4th line and a late first has a very low probability of making a pro roster and a second round is the same. So trading Fiala for that proposal really does nothing for us.

              Proposals I think the Wild are targeting:

              Mercer+3rd for Fiala
              Luke Hughes+3rd for Fiala
              Boqvist+1st unprotected for Fiala

              These trades at least provide a foundation. Boqvist might not crack the roster but if there are injuries we could call him up. A first round pick gets us a prospect that could help us in time. I'd be more interested in no picks and getting back a Dawson Mercer or Luke Hughes because they add a young player that will make this club next year. It also allows us to make changes else where which adds a benefit where we may not need anything else besides that player.

              Example: A Mercer trade allows us to pencil him in on the Boldy line with Rossi and thus letting us move Freddy potentially. Or a Luke Hughes trade allows us to move Dumba for a winger we thing can fit into our top 6 role. So getting a pick isn't needed as much because we could move other players for picks most likely.

              TLDR: The Boqvist plus the number 5 overall would be the only pick I would entertain because it sets us up with a prospect that we like in our system. I'd rather have a high end talent like Mercer or Hughes for Fiala because of their cap hit but I understand NJD might not want to move these pieces. I do think the Wild could keep Fiala with little to no effort but we would loose the depth needed to contend. I also think this trade will be very difficult as Fiala is probably the top 5 fan favorite of all time for us.


              Luke Hughes is the best prospect in hockey right now and you think you're getting him for Kevin freakin Fiala?! hahahaha

              The trade that makes the most sense for Fiala in my opinion is Holtz + Zacha from NJ.
              10 mai 2022 à 13 h 47
              #47
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              Quoting: Toby_flenderson
              Luke Hughes is the best prospect in hockey right now and you think you're getting him for Kevin freakin Fiala?! hahahaha

              The trade that makes the most sense for Fiala in my opinion is Holtz + Zacha from NJ.


              Holtz is a top-10 or top-15 prospect in his own right, about where Fiala was in 2016. I don’t think we would move Holtz for Fiala.

              Zacha, prospect, 2nd
              10 mai 2022 à 19 h 52
              #48
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              Holtz is a top-10 or top-15 prospect in his own right, about where Fiala was in 2016. I don’t think we would move Holtz for Fiala.

              Zacha, prospect, 2nd


              I think this is where it breaks down for both sides. Wild don't need or want Zacha. I look at his analytics and see a guy that hasn't performed with 2 centers that are better than what Fiala has had in his time in Minnesota. The prospect won't be ready over the next few years when we need them and a second doesn't do much. This is all quantity over quality and I think at the end of the day, if we are getting these proposals we make other moves and keep him. I understand people low balling us but that proposal doesn't do anything to make us better.
              10 mai 2022 à 19 h 58
              #49
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              Quoting: iAce
              I think this is where it breaks down for both sides. Wild don't need or want Zacha. I look at his analytics and see a guy that hasn't performed with 2 centers that are better than what Fiala has had in his time in Minnesota. The prospect won't be ready over the next few years when we need them and a second doesn't do much. This is all quantity over quality and I think at the end of the day, if we are getting these proposals we make other moves and keep him. I understand people low balling us but that proposal doesn't do anything to make us better.


              Fair enough. If Devils need another skilled winger, things could be different. But our GM doesn’t sound like he will be going after a guy like Fiala.

              I am paraphrasing here, but the other day, he said, “we have a lot of the same on the wings, and I don’t want to add more of the same. We need to add heavier skill at the position”.

              So I think if they add a winger, it will be more of a power forward type.
               
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