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Trying to be realistic on Fiala

Créé par: NHLfan10506
Équipe: 2022-23 Devils du New Jersey
Date de création initiale: 9 mai 2022
Publié: 9 mai 2022
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
History matters. Cap matters. Facts matter.


1. Fiala is currently unsigned. If he is (a) not signed long-term in MIN and (b) he gets qualified by July 12th, he would be UFA next summer if he signs his QO. He would officially become a rental and rental prices/comps should be used (once the QO is signed, he cannot add an extension on a 1-year deal until January).

For the time being, he is an RFA, who are often discounted in trade market. Look at Toews, Reinhart, Buchnevich, Nedeljkovic Burakovsky, etc. All were challenges to extend.


2. In the cap era, there have been zero (0) trades with a known Top-5 Pick. For any player. Also, zero (0) trades with a top-20 prospect for an RFA.

Comps matter. Teravainen/Bickell set the market for Crouse/Bolland. Varlomov deal set the market for Cory Schneider trade. David Rundblat set the market for Griffin Reinhart deal. Johanssen sets benchmark for Nyquist. And so on.


3. Even if you go back to pre-cap era, you'd have to go back to Alexei Yahsin trade in 2001 to come up with a comp similar to Minnesota's ask. Yashin was #6 and #11 in scoring in his prior two seasons (and runner-up for Hart Trophy). Fiala was #76 and #22.


4. Until Fiala is signed, Buchnevich and Reinhart are our best two recent comps to work with here. Both for a #30-55 pick and decent prospect. To scale up to Fiala (if one makes argument that Fiala is better than Reinhart or Buchnevich), then add a proportional piece.

-----

And if you are here to just say, "no way, it starts with Holtz plus a 1st", just go back to the top and read again. Or justify your reasoning using evidence that NHL teams pay such prices.

-----

And for Devils fans, if the worry is someone will beat our offer, I'd say let them. Fiala doesn't really fit our GM's quest for "heavier skill" anyway.
Transactions
1.
NJD
    Fiala, Kevin
    2022 1st round pick (MIN - #27)
    MIN
      Boqvist, Jesper
      2022 1st round pick (NJD - #5)
      2023 3rd round pick (NJD)
      2.
      NJD
        Fiala, Kevin
        MIN
          Zacha, Pavel
          2022 2nd round pick (NJD - #37)
          2023 2nd round pick (NJD)
          3.
          NJD
            Fiala, Kevin
            MIN
              2023 1st round pick (NJD) with playoff protection or top-10 protection.
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              9 mai 2022 à 13 h 38
              #1
              Sabresguy1897
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              Sabres could beat every one of those offers.
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              9 mai 2022 à 13 h 41
              #2
              aeroastro.MN
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              In my opinion:

              If the pick is top ten, then it’s just a pick for Fiala.
              If the pick is from 11 to 20, a middle six center has to come back with MN adding a third or so.
              A pick lower than 20th is not on the table imo.

              P.S. When Rossi comes to the NHL (hopefully next season), Hartman gets a second line wing job. That’s how to replace Fiala.
              9 mai 2022 à 13 h 43
              #3
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              Very good post
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              9 mai 2022 à 13 h 44
              #4
              aeroastro.MN
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              Quoting: Sabresguy1987
              Sabres could beat every one of those offers.


              Sabres’ projected number 9 makes more sense here. I don’t think a top 5 pick would be involved here.
              9 mai 2022 à 13 h 51
              #5
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              I think the most realistic is to offer 2. It gives Minny a skilled guy who can play center and 2 decent picks. I do think if need be they should offer the 1st one too. Fiala Hughes Hischer and Bratt will fill out an amazing top 6 and they just figure out who goes where and the Devils could be unstoppable on offense.
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              9 mai 2022 à 13 h 58
              #6
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              Quoting: Sabresguy1987
              Sabres could beat every one of those offers.


              A lot of teams could, in theory. But would you want to? Or would you need to?

              As a free agent, Fiala has a lot of say in where he goes.
              If he says, "I won't extend in Ottawa, but will in Buffalo", it likely voids Senators' offer.
              Leaving MIN a smaller pool of trade partners.

              In other words, if Buffalo is the place he wants to be, it shouldn't cost more.
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              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 3
              #7
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              Quoting: Aero_Astro_Guy
              In my opinion:

              If the pick is top ten, then it’s just a pick for Fiala.
              If the pick is from 11 to 20, a middle six center has to come back with MN adding a third or so.
              A pick lower than 20th is not on the table imo.

              P.S. When Rossi comes to the NHL (hopefully next season), Hartman gets a second line wing job. That’s how to replace Fiala.


              All seems logical.

              But big difference in value between top-5 pick and top-10 pick.
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              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 4
              #8
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              Quoting: Aero_Astro_Guy
              Sabres’ projected number 9 makes more sense here. I don’t think a top 5 pick would be involved here.


              We have the supply, and demand will be high. Which increases the cost of acquisition. Simple economics.

              At least two teams with top ten picks, who've both openly stated that they're open to moving them, and who both reportedly want him badly will be competing to acquire his rights. With more teams likely to jump into the pool as well.

              AKA a bidding war.

              Furthermore, his comps are for players who compare favorably to him. But at the time they were traded, they were at at a .75 PPG pace. Fiala will be coming off a 1.04 PPG pace and a 85 points on the year season. He will get more, a lot more in point of fact, but the OG poster stubbornly refuses to accept that fact.

              The perfect storm scenario winds are blowing in the Wild's direction, Fiala's price stock keeps raising.
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              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 7
              #9
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              Quoting: RazWild
              We have the supply, and demand will be high. Which increases the cost of acquisition. Simple economics.

              At least two teams with top ten picks, who've both openly stated that they're open to moving them, and who both reportedly want him badly will be competing to acquire his rights. With more teams likely to jump into the pool as well.

              AKA a bidding war.

              Furthermore, his comps are for players who compare favorably to him. But at the time they were traded, they were at at a .75 PPG pace. Fiala will be coming off a 1.04 PPG pace and a 85 points on the year season. He will get more, a lot more in point of fact, but the OG poster stubbornly refuses to accept that fact.

              The perfect storm scenario winds are blowing in the Wild's direction, Fiala's price stock keeps raising.


              If Fiala says he will extend with Team #1 but not team #2...will be a dud of a bidding war when team #2 pulls out.
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              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 10
              #10
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              A lot of teams could, in theory. But would you want to? Or would you need to?

              As a free agent, Fiala has a lot of say in where he goes.
              If he says, "I won't extend in Ottawa, but will in Buffalo", it likely voids Senators' offer.
              Leaving MIN a smaller pool of trade partners.

              In other words, if Buffalo is the place he wants to be, it shouldn't cost more.


              He's a RFA, not UFA. He has no say in where he goes. GM's will simply inquire as to whether he'd be willing to sign long-term.

              AND GIVEN HE'S WANTED A LONG-TERM CONTRACT FOR THE LAST 4 YEARS.

              If it's offered at his asking price, he'll sign.

              And your theory only works if there are only two teams asking.

              There'll be more than that. The more teams asking the better for Guerin and for Fiala.
              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 10
              #11
              Dougie HIMilton
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              Quoting: RazWild
              We have the supply, and demand will be high. Which increases the cost of acquisition. Simple economics.

              At least two teams with top ten picks, who've both openly stated that they're open to moving them, and who both reportedly want him badly will be competing to acquire his rights. With more teams likely to jump into the pool as well.

              AKA a bidding war.

              Furthermore, his comps are for players who compare favorably to him. But at the time they were traded, they were at at a .75 PPG pace. Fiala will be coming off a 1.04 PPG pace and a 85 points on the year season. He will get more, a lot more in point of fact, but the OG poster stubbornly refuses to accept that fact.

              The perfect storm scenario winds are blowing in the Wild's direction, Fiala's price stock keeps raising.

              fwiw, the devils have said for the last 3 years they would be willing to move their first round pick. They would be dumb not to entertain the option. But I'm pretty sure none of the people who wanted to trade pick #4 for Werenski last year would trade Luke Hughes for him today lol

              I totally buy/understand your points argument. It's completely valid. But I'm kinda confused about the bidding war thing. Weren't there several teams interested in both Reinhart and Buchnevich? Most players have some sort of "bidding war". I can see how Ottawa and NJ could imply an arms race as both have deep pools and high picks, and the Devils very well may move their first for Fiala, but being willing to move it and being interested in Fiala aren't necessarily linked.

              This bidding war could also quite easily fall apart if Fiala says "im not willing to sign in Jersey" or "im not willing to sign in Ottawa".

              I can see it, for sure, don't get me wrong. But I wouldn't be shocked if the Devils don't offer their first round pick.
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              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 19
              #12
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              Quoting: RazWild
              He's a RFA, not UFA. He has no say in where he goes. GM's will simply inquire as to whether he'd be willing to sign long-term.

              AND GIVEN HE'S WANTED A LONG-TERM CONTRACT FOR THE LAST 4 YEARS.

              If it's offered at his asking price, he'll sign.

              And your theory only works if there are only two teams asking.

              There'll be more than that. The more teams asking the better for Guerin and for Fiala.


              You are right that Fiala has no say in where he goes. But like the Devils, no GM will trade premium assets if he doesn't know whether he can extend the player or not.

              So the bidding war is only on if Fiala shows clear intentions to sign with a potential suitor - otherwise the price will stay low (or lower at least).

              Not the best example here, but still with some similarities is the Hall trade from BUF to BOS. Hall, due to his NMC, had the right to limit the market and thus the price was kept low. Same principle with Fiala as long as he isn't open to resign with multiple teams (that also do have the assets MIN wants).
              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 22
              #13
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              If Fiala says he will extend with Team #1 but not team #2...will be a dud of a bidding war when team #2 pulls out.


              And what if there are 2 teams he's willing to sign with out of a possible 3? 3 out of 5?

              The more teams involved. The more the team trading the player and the player and his agent win.

              You are dismissing the players agent/contract negotiations side of this as well.

              The more teams involved the more the agent can get the best contract for his client's next deal.

              Players get picky when they're either older or trying to get off a bad team to a better team. That isn't the case here. Fiala will want as many teams interested as possible for contract reasons.
              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 28
              #14
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              Quoting: sh51_aa
              You are right that Fiala has no say in where he goes. But like the Devils, no GM will trade premium assets if he doesn't know whether he can extend the player or not.

              So the bidding war is only on if Fiala shows clear intentions to sign with a potential suitor - otherwise the price will stay low (or lower at least).

              Not the best example here, but still with some similarities is the Hall trade from BUF to BOS. Hall, due to his NMC, had the right to limit the market and thus the price was kept low. Same principle with Fiala as long as he isn't open to resign with multiple teams (that also do have the assets MIN wants).


              I'm well aware of that fact. I've tried explaining that fact because he's been unwilling to move that NJ 1st for Fiala.

              Any trade for Fiala is going to be because the GM is confident Fiala will sign long-term. That's common sense. It why I stated GM's will inquire if he's willing to sign long-term first.

              But read my above comment on why limiting potential trade options doesn't make sense for a player like Fiala.
              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 29
              #15
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              https://thehockeywriters.com/devils-smart-trade-wild-kevin-fiala/
              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 46
              #16
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              Quoting: RazWild
              And what if there are 2 teams he's willing to sign with out of a possible 3? 3 out of 5?

              The more teams involved. The more the team trading the player and the player and his agent win.

              You are dismissing the players agent/contract negotiations side of this as well.

              The more teams involved the more the agent can get the best contract for his client's next deal.

              Players get picky when they're either older or trying to get off a bad team to a better team. That isn't the case here. Fiala will want as many teams interested as possible for contract reasons.


              If he seeks top-dollar, again only one team can offer the most.
              If he wants to join playoff team, you are probably talking an money-in, money-out type trade, meaning MIN would still need to move someone else.
              If he wants to join where he has friends, there is only one Nico Hischier and one Jonas Siegenthaler.

              Also, keep in mind that Fiala is not the only winger on the market here. There are a lot.
              So Devils would have options too.
              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 47
              #17
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              I'd be surprised if we included our first in a trade, assuming we still have it since it's a conditional 1st in the Fleury deal. Guerin seems to like to give Brackett ammo in the draft. We made two first round picks last year and the McBain trade at the deadline gave us a 2nd round pick this year to either make up for losing the 2nd in the Fleury deal or provide some insurance in case the 2nd becomes a 1st in that trade. If you want an add to Fiala (not necessarily in this specific trade but in genera), I think it'd have to be Addison, which may not be all that bad for the Devils if you can't re-sign Severson (you probably can, but hypothetically speaking).
              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 53
              #18
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              Quoting: TanSor
              I'd be surprised if we included our first in a trade, assuming we still have it since it's a conditional 1st in the Fleury deal. Guerin seems to like to give Brackett ammo in the draft. We made two first round picks last year and the McBain trade at the deadline gave us a 2nd round pick this year to either make up for losing the 2nd in the Fleury deal or provide some insurance in case the 2nd becomes a 1st in that trade. If you want an add to Fiala (not necessarily in this specific trade but in genera), I think it'd have to be Addison, which may not be all that bad for the Devils if you can't re-sign Severson (you probably can, but hypothetically speaking).


              Addison would be interesting, but not really a need as Devils have a lot of young d-men, many of which play right side.
              We need goaltending and a little oompf on front end.
              I don't think MIN has goaltending to offer (that fits).
              But they got a little surplus oompf.
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              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 56
              #19
              Dougie HIMilton
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              Quoting: TanSor
              I'd be surprised if we included our first in a trade, assuming we still have it since it's a conditional 1st in the Fleury deal. Guerin seems to like to give Brackett ammo in the draft. We made two first round picks last year and the McBain trade at the deadline gave us a 2nd round pick this year to either make up for losing the 2nd in the Fleury deal or provide some insurance in case the 2nd becomes a 1st in that trade. If you want an add to Fiala (not necessarily in this specific trade but in genera), I think it'd have to be Addison, which may not be all that bad for the Devils if you can't re-sign Severson (you probably can, but hypothetically speaking).


              I'd be a lot more inclined to include the first if Addison is included.
              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 57
              #20
              Sabresguy1897
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              A lot of teams could, in theory. But would you want to? Or would you need to?

              As a free agent, Fiala has a lot of say in where he goes.
              If he says, "I won't extend in Ottawa, but will in Buffalo", it likely voids Senators' offer.
              Leaving MIN a smaller pool of trade partners.

              In other words, if Buffalo is the place he wants to be, it shouldn't cost more.


              So you believe he would prefer to be in new jersey over buffalo? why is that?
              9 mai 2022 à 14 h 58
              #21
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              Addison would be interesting, but not really a need as Devils have a lot of young d-men, many of which play right side.
              We need goaltending and a little oompf on front end.
              I don't think MIN has goaltending to offer (that fits).
              But they got a little surplus oompf.


              To be fair, Boqvist (or any winger) isn't a need for us either. We have a million winger prospects and I think the plan would be to have Rossi slot into Fiala's spot in the top 6 if he's moved.

              Don't think we'd move any of the GREEF line. I could maybe see Dewar or Duhaime being moved if they're a deal-breaker for the Devils, but neither will be anything more than 4th line guys that can play on your 3rd line in a pinch.
              9 mai 2022 à 15 h 0
              #22
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              Quoting: HeadHighSauce
              I'd be a lot more inclined to include the first if Addison is included.


              For the record I don't see us doing Addison and Fiala for your first alone. But something along the lines of Addison and Fiala for your first and a good prospect (not Holtz or Luke Hughes, but someone in that tier below)
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              9 mai 2022 à 15 h 5
              #23
              Dougie HIMilton
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              Quoting: TanSor
              For the record I don't see us doing Addison and Fiala for your first alone. But something along the lines of Addison and Fiala for your first and a good prospect (not Holtz or Luke Hughes, but someone in that tier below)


              I mean if the concept here is "the 5th overall pick is too valuable to the devils to trade for Fiala straight up", I don't see how a prospect swap in which Minnesota gets the better prospect helps.

              Maybe Fitz thinks differently, but I think the Devils are pretty close to being a playoff team (think Colorado the year they drafted Byram) with average goaltending, so having a high-end talent on an ELC is really valuable - especially if its a 1-and-done like Cooley, Jiricek, or Slafkovsky will likely be. That's my personal concern, which Addison helps alleviate.

              Fwiw, in a vacuum I do think Fiala is worth a top 5 pick. I'm just thinking in context of the Devils. Really strong underlying numbers, league-worst goaltending and powerplay. Could easily see them in the playoffs next year if they improve in those areas /without/ Fiala.
              9 mai 2022 à 15 h 35
              #24
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              Quoting: TanSor
              For the record I don't see us doing Addison and Fiala for your first alone. But something along the lines of Addison and Fiala for your first and a good prospect (not Holtz or Luke Hughes, but someone in that tier below)


              I appreciate a constructive post here. As a Wild fan, lets touch on a few points. First, we ranked 3rd in prospect pipeline. Meaning a huge amount of B prospects doesn't do anything for us. Second, we are contending. Meaning we are looking for certain things back for players like Dumba/Fiala trades. Lastly, we draft very well thanks to Judd Brackett. Meaning we would want high draft picks. The draft proposals above are way better than most of the fan base. We have the same in the Wild community as well. Most of us are thankful for a guy like Fiala because this org has lacked scoring almost our entire existence.

              We have a log jam at forwards so any forwards that are traded need to work on a top 6 line combo. Even with that the Wild have players to fill in that role so it's not really needed at them moment due to Rossi coming up next year and not having a ton of UFA/RFA's. We also have our top 3 defense in place with Brodin, Spurgeon Dumba and potentially Middleton being resigned after the year is over. So a defender would have to be a high end player to add benefit to our roster.

              Trades like Foote, late first and a second rounder, does nothing really to intrigue the Wild. Foote won't make this roster unless its the 4th line and a late first has a very low probability of making a pro roster and a second round is the same. So trading Fiala for that proposal really does nothing for us.

              Proposals I think the Wild are targeting:

              Mercer+3rd for Fiala
              Luke Hughes+3rd for Fiala
              Boqvist+1st unprotected for Fiala

              These trades at least provide a foundation. Boqvist might not crack the roster but if there are injuries we could call him up. A first round pick gets us a prospect that could help us in time. I'd be more interested in no picks and getting back a Dawson Mercer or Luke Hughes because they add a young player that will make this club next year. It also allows us to make changes else where which adds a benefit where we may not need anything else besides that player.

              Example: A Mercer trade allows us to pencil him in on the Boldy line with Rossi and thus letting us move Freddy potentially. Or a Luke Hughes trade allows us to move Dumba for a winger we thing can fit into our top 6 role. So getting a pick isn't needed as much because we could move other players for picks most likely.

              TLDR: The Boqvist plus the number 5 overall would be the only pick I would entertain because it sets us up with a prospect that we like in our system. I'd rather have a high end talent like Mercer or Hughes for Fiala because of their cap hit but I understand NJD might not want to move these pieces. I do think the Wild could keep Fiala with little to no effort but we would loose the depth needed to contend. I also think this trade will be very difficult as Fiala is probably the top 5 fan favorite of all time for us.
              9 mai 2022 à 15 h 39
              #25
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              Quoting: TanSor
              To be fair, Boqvist (or any winger) isn't a need for us either. We have a million winger prospects and I think the plan would be to have Rossi slot into Fiala's spot in the top 6 if he's moved.

              Don't think we'd move any of the GREEF line. I could maybe see Dewar or Duhaime being moved if they're a deal-breaker for the Devils, but neither will be anything more than 4th line guys that can play on your 3rd line in a pinch.


              To be fair, Kaprizov and Zucc are set. The GREEF line is set. Bold and Freddy are pretty set because the Wild love Freddy. So we are looking at 1c, 2rw realistically. Rossi might push Hartman down to the 2RW so we might be fine there. But to your point any prospects like Boqvist probably doesn't make our roster unless its the 4th line. Is he capable of being better than any of our 4th liners right now?
               
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