Forums/Armchair-GM

Trading Up

Créé par: NeedTheCleanser
Date de création initiale: 19 avr. 2022
Publié: 19 avr. 2022
Équipe: 2022-23 Sabres de Buffalo
Explications
If Jiricek is on the board at 7.
Sabres take Jiricek and Savoie/Kemell at 7 and 8.
Transactions
1.
BUF
  1. Tatar, Tomas
  2. 2022 1e round pick (NJD)
  3. 2023 4e round pick (NJD)
Détails additionnels:
7th overall
NJD
  1. Johnson, Ryan [Liste de réserve]
  2. 2022 1e round pick (FLA)
  3. 2022 1e round pick (VGK)
Détails additionnels:
15th and 28th overall
Rachats de contrats
  • Cody Hodgson: 791 667 $
  • Christian Ehrhoff: 0 $
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2022
Logo de BUF
Logo de NJD
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
Logo de NJD
Logo de BUF
Logo de CGY
Logo de BUF
2023
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
Logo de PHI
Logo de VGK
Logo de BUF
Logo de NJD
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
2024
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
Logo de BUF
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
1682 500 000 $46 415 834 $0 $2 187 500 $36 084 166 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de BUF
Skinner, Jeff
9 000 000 $
AG, AD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo de BUF
Mittelstadt, Casey
2 500 000 $
C
RFA - 2
Logo de BUF
Okposo, Kyle
6 000 000 $
AD
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de BUF
Bjork, Anders
1 600 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de BUF
Girgensons, Zemgus
2 200 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de BUF
Tuch, Alex
4 750 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 4
Logo de BUF
Asplund, Rasmus
825 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de BUF
Thompson, Tage
1 400 000 $
C, AD
RFA - 1
Logo de NJD
Tatar, Tomas
4 500 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de BUF
Cozens, Dylan
894 167 $
C, AG
RFA - 1
Logo de BUF
Krebs, Peyton
863 333 $
C, AG
RFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de BUF
Dahlin, Rasmus
6 000 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 2
Logo de BUF
Jokiharju, Henri
2 500 000 $
DD
RFA - 2
Logo de BUF
Samuelsson, Mattias
925 000 $
DG
RFA - 1
Logo de BUF
Fitzgerald, Casey
750 000 $
DD
RFA - 1
Logo de BUF
Power, Owen
916 667 $
DG
RFA - 2

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19 avr. à 10 h 21
#1
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Devils pass here
19 avr. à 10 h 22
#2
Chart Boi
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Definitely don't see the value here for the devils.
19 avr. à 10 h 23
#3
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Quoting: zyyyp
Devils pass here


What does it take to get it done
19 avr. à 10 h 24
#4
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Quoting: HeadHighSauce
Definitely don't see the value here for the devils.


It passes the draft value chart without Johnson and taking on Tatar’s contract
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19 avr. à 10 h 31
#5
Lenny7
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Quoting: NeedTheCleanser
It passes the draft value chart without Johnson and taking on Tatar’s contract


I don't disagree that the value is there, but I also think the Devils would be looking at Jiricek just as hard as the Sabres.
19 avr. à 10 h 33
#6
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I think NJD trip over themselves to accept.
NJD move back 8 spots and gain a full additional 1st rd pick and a prospect (plus shed themselves of Tatar).

The difference between pick 8 and pick 15 isnt the 28th overall pick lol
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19 avr. à 10 h 34
#7
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Well I would do it, so in the great cap friendly tradition, the other team won't.
19 avr. à 10 h 36
#8
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Quoting: McRanteskog
I think NJD trip over themselves to accept.
NJD move back 8 spots and gain a full additional 1st rd pick and a prospect (plus shed themselves of Tatar).

The difference between pick 8 and pick 15 isnt the 28th overall pick lol


Doesn't matter. This is capfriendly. Nobody ever wants quantity over quality, even if it's likely a huge overpay in quantity
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19 avr. à 10 h 46
#9
Shibbal18
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Quoting: HeadHighSauce
Definitely don't see the value here for the devils.


Devils end up with 3 1st rounders for 1, just to drop back 8 spots
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19 avr. à 10 h 52
#10
Shibbal18
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Quoting: Lenny7
I don't disagree that the value is there, but I also think the Devils would be looking at Jiricek just as hard as the Sabres.


They could end up with 3 of their future top 4 in one trade by taking any 2 of Mateychuk, Pickering, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Bichsel, Rinzel, or Casey, and adding Johnson. I dont think Jiricek is worth hyper focusing
19 avr. à 11 h 1
#11
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Quoting: NeedTheCleanser
It passes the draft value chart without Johnson and taking on Tatar’s contract


Quoting: McRanteskog
I think NJD trip over themselves to accept.
NJD move back 8 spots and gain a full additional 1st rd pick and a prospect (plus shed themselves of Tatar).

The difference between pick 8 and pick 15 isnt the 28th overall pick lol


Why do you guys think the Devils need to shed Tatar lol
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19 avr. à 11 h 6
#12
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Quoting: HeadHighSauce
Why do you guys think the Devils need to shed Tatar lol


I think NJD is going after Forsberg this offseason
19 avr. à 11 h 7
#13
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Quoting: HeadHighSauce
Why do you guys think the Devils need to shed Tatar lol


Open the last 20 22-23 NJD AGMs and hes traded in at least half of them.
We get the impression NJD is looking to move him no?
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19 avr. à 11 h 10
#14
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Quoting: NeedTheCleanser
It passes the draft value chart without Johnson and taking on Tatar’s contract


Okay. Per the athletic you have pick 15 + 28 = 8 GSVA. pick 7 + 131 = 7.6 GSVA, so on raw value, maybe.

Tatar had a disappointing season but he's not currently blocking anyway and the devils don't have any cap issue. He's likely a bounce-back candidate as his underlings have significantly diverged from his career norms.

Ryan Johnson currently has a 1% chance as being a star (0.75ppg) and a 19% chance at being a 200 gamer according to Bader. So he's basically a nothing prospect.

So it's roughly equal value in a typical draft, sure. But Tom sucks at late firsts so far so Devils fans are going to recoil from this outright. Plus, Jiricek is likely ready sooner and the type of player who makes Tom physically aroused, and that matters to the devils who are trying to exit a rebuild and are thin on RD.

I just don't see it making sense for the Devils in a weaker class. /especially/ when that value could quite easily slip with FLA winning a cup or Vegas squeaking in.
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19 avr. à 11 h 10
#15
DONT TRADE THE PICK
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Quoting: NeedTheCleanser
It passes the draft value chart without Johnson and taking on Tatar’s contract


Quoting: McRanteskog
I think NJD trip over themselves to accept.
NJD move back 8 spots and gain a full additional 1st rd pick and a prospect (plus shed themselves of Tatar).

The difference between pick 8 and pick 15 isnt the 28th overall pick lol


Tatar isn't a bad contract, not for New Jersey anyway. No reason for Devils to dump him.
He's been alright this year, albeit a bit underwhelming yes.

With that said, I'd want Devils to strongly consider this, especially if Tatar is removed from the equation:
- Johnson seems like a good enough prospect
- Gleb Trikozov is probably still available at 15
- That 28th OVA can be batched with one of Devils many expendable middle six wingers (Johnsson, Zacha, Tatar) to target bigger fish like Boeser, Garland or Fiala.
19 avr. à 11 h 11
#16
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Quoting: HeadHighSauce
Okay. Per the athletic you have pick 15 + 28 = 8 GSVA. pick 7 + 131 = 7.6 GSVA, so on raw value, maybe.

Tatar had a disappointing season but he's not currently blocking anyway and the devils don't have any cap issue. He's likely a bounce-back candidate as his underlings have significantly diverged from his career norms.

Ryan Johnson currently has a 1% chance as being a star (0.75ppg) and a 19% chance at being a 200 gamer according to Bader. So he's basically a nothing prospect.

So it's roughly equal value in a typical draft, sure. But Tom sucks at late firsts so far so Devils fans are going to recoil from this outright. Plus, Jiricek is likely ready sooner and the type of player who makes Tom physically aroused, and that matters to the devils who are trying to exit a rebuild and are thin on RD.

I just don't see it making sense for the Devils in a weaker class. /especially/ when that value could quite easily slip with FLA winning a cup or Vegas squeaking in.


I’m getting a “yeah it’s probably fair but you personally wouldn’t do it” vibes here. Fair enough
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19 avr. à 11 h 11
#17
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Quoting: NeedTheCleanser
I think NJD is going after Forsberg this offseason


Quoting: McRanteskog
Open the last 20 22-23 NJD AGMs and hes traded in at least half of them.
We get the impression NJD is looking to move him no?


He may be. But if he is, its because we brought it a better winger and don't have the room for him in the top 9.

It's AJ that's most likely to be moved, to my chagrin. He's owed less money than his cap hit and that has teams interested, apparently.
19 avr. à 11 h 13
#18
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Quoting: NeedTheCleanser
I’m getting a “yeah it’s probably fair but you personally wouldn’t do it” vibes here. Fair enough


It's /close enough/ to fair. I don't do it because I don't think it improves the Devils. Maybe if Will Scouch was our head of scouting.
19 avr. à 11 h 34
#19
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Quoting: NeedTheCleanser
I’m getting a “yeah it’s probably fair but you personally wouldn’t do it” vibes here. Fair enough


Just an addendum because Scouch just dropped his list. I personally would trade Jiricek for Firkus and Gauthier, but the reality is that it's probably Jiricek for Geekie and Bischel which I absolutely don't do.
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19 avr. à 11 h 40
#20
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Quoting: NeedTheCleanser
What does it take to get it done


Value is fine I just think New Jersey would rather one of Kemell / Jiricek / Savoie as opposed to say Korchinski + Mesar + Johnson. I don't see much value for them trading down.

If Buffalo really wanted our pick and was willing to move UPL or Levi then that's a different story, NJ needs a long term solution in net.
19 avr. à 11 h 48
#21
Johnnys coming home
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Value is fair but all depends on who’s available
If one of the top wingers or dmen are available, Devils keep the pick.

Quoting: McRanteskog
Open the last 20 22-23 NJD AGMs and hes traded in at least half of them.
We get the impression NJD is looking to move him no?


Not really. He could get moved but it’s unlikely. Tatars numbers are bit underwhelming this year but that’s because he’s playing a middle six role for most of the season instead of his expected first line role. But Tatar has good underlying numbers and puts in a lot of effort each night
19 avr. à 11 h 52
#22
DONT TRADE THE PICK
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Quoting: HeadHighSauce
Ryan Johnson currently has a 1% chance as being a star (0.75ppg) and a 19% chance at being a 200 gamer according to Bader. So he's basically a nothing prospect.


I'm generally a fan of Bader (his Twitter anyway) but one year ago he had Mercer at like 20 something % chance at being an NHLer.
Also, Scott Wheeler (at the Athletic) "projects" Johnson as a 4-5 guy.
Seems to me it's somewhat unfair to label Johnson "basically a nothing prospect".
19 avr. à 12 h 2
#23
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Quoting: PaulieWalnuts
I'm generally a fan of Bader (his Twitter anyway) but one year ago he had Mercer at like 20 something % chance at being an NHLer.
Also, Scott Wheeler (at the Athletic) "projects" Johnson as a 4-5 guy.
Seems to me it's somewhat unfair to label Johnson "basically a nothing prospect".


No, he didn't
D0: star 42% 100 games 64%
D1: star 24% 100 games 62%
D2: Star 32% 100 games 92%
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19 avr. à 12 h 9
#24
DONT TRADE THE PICK
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Quoting: HeadHighSauce
No, he didn't
D0: star 42% 100 games 64%
D1: star 24% 100 games 62%
D2: Star 32% 100 games 92%


Oh dear.

Should be this tweet.



Turns out that misread his star probability as his NHLer probability at the time
Which means that for over a year I've harbored unwarranted doubts of Byron's modelling.
I stand corrected.
19 avr. à 12 h 29
#25
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Quoting: PaulieWalnuts
Oh dear.

Should be this tweet.



Turns out that misread his star probability as his NHLer probability at the time
Which means that for over a year I've harbored unwarranted doubts of Byron's modelling.
I stand corrected.

The funny part is that They’re still basically identical.

32/96 for Holtz
 
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