trying to explain every trade

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Créé par: datmonkey91

Équipe: 2021-22 Oilers d'Edmonton

Date de création initiale: 2 janv. 2022

Publié: 2 janv. 2022

Mode - plafond salarial: Basique

Description

NOTES:

- Tippett and Holland need to go. If you watch the oilers play you'll see why.

- A majority of draft picks are gone but the past few years the oilers have done a really solid job in the late rounds drafting and to add on have a decent pool already. So, I'm not too worried about the lack of picks. Also, Kubalik's rights can be traded for a 3rd or something since he's an RFA.

- Bringing in two scoring forwards opens up endless possibilities for the oilers as they can move around guys if the offense dries up and most importantly, helps out McLeod and improves the third line drastically.

- Acquiring a new second pair will do wonders for the team as Keith is okay but thrives more under limited minutes. And Ceci is completely average and isn't a game changer which the oilers lack on the back end. Chairot strengthens the oilers defensively as he can step in and play near or around 20 minutes a night. Klingberg would be a real nice player to have as his offensive abilities would create better scoring chances for the oilers and improve their already scary good powerplay.

- I'm not sold on Fleury but I know he is capable of being an solid starter still and hopefully that's what he is if the oilers acquire him.

Transactions

EDM

Choix de 2e ronde en 2022 (VAN)

ARI

Barrie, Tyson
Choix de 5e ronde en 2023 (EDM)

Détails additionnels:

As bad as Barrie is he's a decent offensive dman and I know that some Gm's think he has some value. I'm not sure where'll he'll end up but I think he can help out the Coyotes forwards and add to the RD (a place they're not strong at).

EDM

Choix de 6e ronde en 2022 (PHI)

PHI

Kassian, Zack
Choix de 3e ronde en 2023 (EDM)

Détails additionnels:

According to Servalli and Allan Mitchell, there are some teams that do value Kassian but just to make sure, I added a small sweetener for the flyers to take him. Also, the trade doesn't have to be with the flyers it could be any team that is interested in him.

EDM

Fleury, Marc-André (3 500 000 $ retained)
Kubalik, Dominik (1 200 000 $ retained)

CHI

Koskinen, Mikko
Samorukov, Dmitri
Choix de 1e ronde en 2022 (EDM)

Détails additionnels:

The Blackhawks sell their expiring players at the deadline and get back some decent pieces. In order for the oilers to get flower, they'd need to trade a goalie and in this case is Koskinen who is a serviceable backup in the league still. Giving up a 1st and a B/B+ level prospect in Samorukov should get the deal done for two rental players.

EDM

Future Considerations

BUF

Turris, Kyle
Choix de 4e ronde en 2024 (EDM)

Détails additionnels:

This is a cap dump and Turris only has this year left on a small contract so the 4th should be more than enough.

EDM

Chiarot, Ben (1 750 000 $ retained)

MTL

Mazura, Tomas [Liste de réserve]
Rodrigue, Olivier
Choix de 2e ronde en 2022 (VAN)

Détails additionnels:

I don't believe that Chiarot is worth the 1st like Friedman said so a second, a C prospect and rodrigue who is a wild card (could be a solid NHL goalie or just an AHL guy) should get the deal done.

EDM

Kessel, Phil (3 400 000 $ retained)
Choix de 4e ronde en 2023 (ARI)

ARI

Lavoie, Raphael
Choix de 2e ronde en 2023 (EDM)

Détails additionnels:

The asking price for Kessel apparently is a higher end mid round pick (2nd-4th), so a 2nd along with a B/B+ prospect should be enough for Kessel with retention and a 4th back

EDM

Klingberg, John

DAL

Savoie, Carter [Liste de réserve]
Tullio, Tyler
Choix de 1e ronde en 2023 (EDM)
Choix de 4e ronde en 2023 (EDM)

Détails additionnels:

Despite his slow start, Klingberg is still an elite offensive dman who is okay in the defensive zone. He slots in perfectly into the second pairing and top powerplay unit (basically a huge Barrie upgrade). No doubt he fetches a 1st+ at the deadline and here the oilers give up some solid prospects along with two draft picks for him.

EDM

Choix de 7e ronde en 2023 (PIT)

PIT

Koekkoek, Slater

Détails additionnels:

Pittsburgh players are always somehow injured so bringing in a depth guy who can step in and not hurt the team would be a nice asset to have.

Rachats de contrats

James Neal: 1 916 667 $
Andrej Sekera: 1 500 000 $

Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire

Milan Lucic: 750 000 $ (12.5%)

Repêchage	1e ronde	2e ronde	3e ronde	4e ronde	5e ronde	6e ronde	7e ronde
2022
2023
2024

FORMATION

VUE À LONG TERME

INTÉGRÉ

TEXTE INTÉGRÉ

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
23	81 500 000 $	74 321 968 $	669 339 $	907 500 $	7 178 032 $

Formation

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Hyman, Zach 5 500 000 $5 500 000 $ AD, AG NMC UFA - 7	McDavid, Connor 12 500 000 $12 500 000 $ C UFA - 5	Puljujärvi, Jesse 1 175 000 $1 175 000 $ AD UFA - 1
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan 5 125 000 $5 125 000 $ AG, C NMC UFA - 8	Draisaitl, Leon 8 500 000 $8 500 000 $ C, AG UFA - 4	Yamamoto, Kailer 1 175 000 $1 175 000 $ AD RFA - 1
Kubalik, Dominik 2 500 000 $2 500 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1	McLeod, Ryan 834 167 $834 167 $ (57 500 $$58K) C RFA - 1	Kessel, Phil 3 400 000 $3 400 000 $ AD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Foegele, Warren 2 750 000 $2 750 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 3	Ryan, Derek 1 250 000 $1 250 000 $ C, AD UFA - 2	Sceviour, Colton 750 000 $750 000 $ AD, C UFA - 1

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Nurse, Darnell 5 600 000 $5 600 000 $ DG UFA - 1	Bouchard, Evan 863 333 $863 333 $ (850 000 $$850K) DD RFA - 2	Fleury, Marc-André 0 $0 $ G M-NTC UFA - 1
Chiarot, Ben 0 $0 $ DG/DD M-NTC UFA - 1	Klingberg, John 4 250 000 $4 250 000 $ DD UFA - 1	Smith, Mike 2 200 000 $2 200 000 $ G UFA - 2
Keith, Duncan 5 538 462 $5 538 462 $ DG NMC UFA - 2	Ceci, Cody 3 250 000 $3 250 000 $ DD UFA - 4

Laissés de côté	Liste des blessés (IR)	Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Lagesson, William 725 000 $725 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 1		Klefbom, Oscar 4 167 000 $4 167 000 $ DG M-NTC UFA - 2
Shore, Devin 850 000 $850 000 $ AG, C, AD UFA - 2		Archibald, Josh 1 500 000 $1 500 000 $ AD, AG UFA - 1
Benson, Tyler 750 000 $750 000 $ AG, AD UFA - 1		Russell, Kris 1 250 000 $1 250 000 $ DG/DD UFA - 1
		Stalock, Alex 785 000 $785 000 $ G UFA - 1

Unités spéciales

Avantage numérique 1
McDavid, C.		Draisaitl, L.		Hyman, Z.
	Klingberg, J.		Nugent-Hopkins, R.

Avantage numérique 2
Puljujärvi, J.		Yamamoto, K.		Kessel, P.
	Bouchard, E.		Kubalik, D.

Infériorité numérique 1
	Nugent-Hopkins, R.	Hyman, Z.
	Nurse, D.	Bouchard, E.

Infériorité numérique 2
	Ryan, D.	Foegele, W.
	Chiarot, B.	Ceci, C.

2 janv. 2022 à 3 h 20

ChiHawk

Rejoint: avr. 2017

Messages: 18,989

Mentions "j'aime": 9,300

Hawks easily decline. Kubalik is not a rental, he's a RFA and far better then a B/B+ prospect. Flowers half retained = Kos + 1st...you're going to have to add something better for Kubalik

FiveYearWin et exo2769 a aimé ceci.

2 janv. 2022 à 3 h 24

FiveYearWin

Rejoint: juin 2021

Messages: 17

Mentions "j'aime": 6

Dallas might want a more NHL ready prospect. Savoie looks good but I don’t think it quite gets the deal done.

2 janv. 2022 à 3 h 34

datmonkey91

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Modifié 2 janv. 2022 à 3 h 48

Quoting: ChiHawk

Hawks easily decline. Kubalik is not a rental, he's a RFA and far better then a B/B+ prospect. Flowers half retained = Kos + 1st...you're going to have to add something better for Kubalik

Fleury who struggled most of the year but has played decent recently shouldn't be more than Koskinen, a second and a smaller prospect. As good as he has been playing, the sample size is not big enough to trust that he can maintain it. As of right now, he still sits in the bottom 10 of goals saved above expected at -4.6. If the asking price is too high for flower, the oilers should pass and just go after Kubalik. The 1st should be more than enough for him as he has been struggling this year.

The trade could be modified to a 1st for Kubalik and a 3rd or 4th.

2 janv. 2022 à 3 h 37

datmonkey91

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Quoting: FiveYearWin

Dallas might want a more NHL ready prospect. Savoie looks good but I don’t think it quite gets the deal done.

I can see them wanting that but the prospects the oilers have that are close to NHL ready are former 1st rounders which would make the trade heavily in the stars' favor.

A way to change that would be for the oilers to change up the Chicago deal and give up a 1st for Kubalik and that's it. That way Samorukov who is close to NHL ready can be the added piece instead of Tullio in the deal.

2 janv. 2022 à 3 h 42

GMs

Rejoint: juill. 2019

Messages: 14,042

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MTL isn’t trading Chiarot half retained for a 2nd round pick & 2 unnecessary guys. You can do Savoie + 2nd RD pick or Lavoie + 2nd RD pick vs Chiarot half retained if you don’t wanna give up a 1st RD pick

2 janv. 2022 à 4 h 2

datmonkey91

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Quoting: GMs

That value would be equivalent to a 1st which Chiarot is not worth. The half retained doesn't need to happen, retention can be 500k-1m or not at all even. Keeping the same pieces in the trade would make sense for both teams.

oilersfan150 a aimé ceci.

2 janv. 2022 à 4 h 4

ChiHawk

Rejoint: avr. 2017

Messages: 18,989

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Quoting: datmonkey91

Struggled most of the year? What are you talking about? He started off the first 4 games poorly, and outside of that 2 MAYBE 3 off games, but out of 20 games he's been outstanding overall and that's behind a bad defense with the Hawks. The narrative you are sharing is a dead one from the start of the season. He's hands down better then either of the Oilers goalies, and a top 10 in the league. Come playoff time there isn't many other goalies better then him. Can you name 10 other proven playoff goalies you want in the net ahead of him? Can you even name 5?

We can do better on Kubalik if the goal is to trade him.

exo2769 et SociallyHawkward a aimé ceci.

2 janv. 2022 à 4 h 13

GMs

Rejoint: juill. 2019

Messages: 14,042

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Quoting: datmonkey91

Makes no senses for MTL
Chiarot is highly requested so it WILL be an overpay
David Savard costed a 1st + a 3rd RD pick & Chiarot is MILES away better than Savard. No Benjamin Chiarot is not worth a 1st RD pick for one postseason but he will get that for us because he is nasty lol

2 janv. 2022 à 4 h 15

datmonkey91

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Quoting: ChiHawk

I never said Fleury was worse than the oiler goalies but the concerning part is his analytics which are the best way to evaluate a goalie. His goals saved above expected is worse than all oiler goalies which is really concerning. To add on, his WAR is -0.77, and you don't ever want a player with negative war on your team especially a goalie. You can't always rely on the resume of a player when trading for him. You really need the hard evidence that proves he can help you out and Fleury just doesn't look good from an analytical standpoint. I know playoffs are totally different from regular season but Smith's playoff stats are fine and I trust him enough to play near the numbers again.

2 janv. 2022 à 4 h 18

#10

Ledge_And_Dairy

Rejoint: juin 2019

Messages: 38,240

Mentions "j'aime": 19,508

Coyote's dont really need offensive dmen, Ghost and Chychrun are more than sufficient

QualityTrades1 et gretzkyghosts a aimé ceci.

2 janv. 2022 à 4 h 22

#11

datmonkey91

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Quoting: GMs

Goodrow also fethced a 1st so comparing values for rentals aren't a good way to think about it. If the asking price is too high for Chiarot, the oilers should drop out and look after a different player. Perhaps a player like Edler or Mcnabb would be good fit if the oilers move out on Chiarot.

2 janv. 2022 à 4 h 25

#12

datmonkey91

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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

Coyote's dont really need offensive dmen, Ghost and Chychrun are more than sufficient

Chych has kinda struggled this year offensively which is understandable because the team sucks lol and ghost would be really good trade bait for a team that needs a LD offensive dman. It always helps to have a puck moving RHD but Barrie doesn't need to go to Arizona but there definitely is a team out there that wants him for sure.

2 janv. 2022 à 4 h 45

#13

Ledge_And_Dairy

Rejoint: juin 2019

Messages: 38,240

Mentions "j'aime": 19,508

Quoting: datmonkey91

Chych has kinda struggled this year offensively which is understandable because the team sucks lol and ghost would be really good trade bait for a team that needs a LD offensive dman. It always helps to have a puck moving RHD but Barrie doesn't need to go to Arizona but there definitely is a team out there that wants him for sure.

this is incorrect, his heat map shows that he is the only player providing offense when he is on the ice. That has a lot to do with his teammates he is on with

datmonkey91, exo2769 et gretzkyghosts a aimé ceci.

2 janv. 2022 à 7 h 9

#14

Habs18

Rejoint: avr. 2018

Messages: 245

Mentions "j'aime": 59

Absolutely not from Montreal. I see team and after team from oilers fans suggesting they can shell out zero value for real value. It's hilarious.

"I don't believe Chiarot is worth what this plugged reputable reporter is telling us what the market value is for Chiarot."

Incredible.

2 janv. 2022 à 7 h 58

#15

QualityTrades1

Rejoint: oct. 2021

Messages: 879

Mentions "j'aime": 535

Quoting: datmonkey91

Disclaimer: I like that these trades have started good discussions in the comments. Fun to read.

But yeah I couldn't agree with the ARI move. They're not going to give assets to bolster a team that isn't making the playoffs / is tanking for Wright. I'm sure there is a team that would be willing to give something for Barrie but definitely not this team

datmonkey91 a aimé ceci.

2 janv. 2022 à 10 h 38

#16

exo2769

Rejoint: juill. 2015

Messages: 15,595

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Quoting: datmonkey91

Hard evidence. Reigning Vezina winner. 3x Cup winner. .913 SV% even with the historically bad start the the Hawks season.

I'm not sure what narrative you're trying sell, but don't believe your own nonsense. He's been phenomenal.

SociallyHawkward et ChiHawk a aimé ceci.

2 janv. 2022 à 10 h 43

#17

exo2769

Rejoint: juill. 2015

Messages: 15,595

Mentions "j'aime": 9,676

Hawks easily decline this trade. Kubalik's numbers are indeed down. His top 4 linemates are Dach, Kurashev, Khaira, and Toews. And despite Toews being my all time favorite player...he's not the offensive player he used to be. Kubalik is also NOT a rental. That's just an incorrect fact. He's an arbitration eligible RFA. So any team acquiring him gets him for a 2nd year and arbitration cost controlled.

If you want both guys...and both retained...expect to pay a FAR heavier cost. Kubalik alone will get more than this.

ChiHawk a aimé ceci.

2 janv. 2022 à 14 h 14

#18

GMs

Rejoint: juill. 2019

Messages: 14,042

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Quoting: datmonkey91

Goodrow fetch a 1st vs a 3rd so it’s a 60 spot drop in the draft, he was a solid 4th liner and was making only 925K for 2 years. He wasn’t a rental
Coleman 1.8M and Goodrow 925K costed them the value of 3 first round pick
Ben Chiarot @ 1.75M will probably cost a 1st to who ever overpay for him. If you are not ready to do it, just don’t

2 janv. 2022 à 16 h 15

#19

datmonkey91

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Quoting: Habs18

Quoting: GMs

Goodrow fetch a 1st vs a 3rd so it’s a 60 spot drop in the draft, he was a solid 4th liner and was making only 925K for 2 years. He wasn’t a rental
Coleman 1.8M and Goodrow 925K costed them the value of 3 first round pick
Ben Chiarot 1.75M will probably cost a 1st to who ever overpay for him. If you are not ready to do it, just don’t

As I said if the asking price is more than a 1st for Chiarot then the Oilers should back out and go after someone else. It would be silly if a team gave up a 1st for him as they can definitely get a better player for a 1st at the deadline.

2 janv. 2022 à 16 h 20

#20

datmonkey91

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Quoting: exo2769

Last year he was the vezina winner which means nothing this year. As everybody knows, goalies are up and down usually like Holtby for example. A guy who fell off quite a bit after years of being an elite goalie. Same with being a cup winner. Fleury was great IN HIS PRIME but he's no longer at that level I believe. And to add on, save% is a stat that is heavily influenced by the whole team. Analytics are the best way to determine the goalie's playing ability and Fleury falls at the bottom amongst all goaltenders when it comes to that. I have only seen Chicago and casuals tell me that Fleury is great. I still love fleury as a guy and have much respect for him but he just isn't what he was this season.

2 janv. 2022 à 17 h 11

#21

exo2769

Rejoint: juill. 2015

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Quoting: datmonkey91

Last year he was the vezina winner which means nothing this year. As everybody knows, goalies are up and down usually like Holtby for example. A guy who fell off quite a bit after years of being an elite goalie. Same with being a cup winner. Fleury was great IN HIS PRIME but he's no longer at that level I believe. And to add on, save% is a stat that is heavily influenced by the whole team. Analytics are the best way to determine the goalie's playing ability and Fleury falls at the bottom amongst all goaltenders when it comes to that. I have only seen Chicago and casuals tell me that Fleury is great. I still love fleury as a guy and have much respect for him but he just isn't what he was this season.

You're WAY too focused on MAF's 1st four games during a historically bad start to an original 6 franchise. Remove those 4 games and he's a .929 SV%. EVEN WITH those 4 games included he's still above his career average. Also, when you say "in his prime" how many Vezina's do you think he has? It's 1 and it was in 2021...ya know the year that was 3 days ago. Any way you want to add 2 + 2...it'll never equal 5.
No matter how hard you want it to be.

HDGSAA - +7.11
GSAA - +8.39

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=CHI&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

2 janv. 2022 à 17 h 21

#22

datmonkey91

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Quoting: exo2769

You can't disregard the analytics which you are. They take into account many things (quality of team in front of fleury, high danger scoring chances against, etc.). When looking at those analytics, it really shows you how good a goalie is. Again, save% is partly reflected on a team effort and doesn't take into account the situations Fleury is in. Imagine a team is on a 5 minute powerplay and fleury gets scored on 3 times on 10 high scoring danger shots, save% wouldn't reflect the best numbers despite him saving 7 high quality chances. He had a great year LAST SEASON, not this year. And in all honesty his analytics were third best amongst goalies last season (behind Hellebuyck and Vasy). Which shows to me that the NHL doesn't know how to choose the Vezina candidates and winners as they only look at team success, GAA and sv%. You're giving me save% and Fleury's past seasons as a reason he is good. I'm giving you isolated analytics on THIS SEASON to show you why Fleury isn't worth all too much.

2 janv. 2022 à 18 h 53

#23

exo2769

Rejoint: juill. 2015

Messages: 15,595

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Quoting: datmonkey91

You're just ignoring extremely important things like eye test and defense infront of him, and a whole bunch of external factors that help explain why the stats are what they are. By only looking at stats...your going to the end of a book and ignoring all the chapters in the beginning and middle never really understanding the story at all.

2 janv. 2022 à 23 h 15

#24

datmonkey91

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Modifié 2 janv. 2022 à 23 h 23

Quoting: exo2769

Analytics take into all of these factors and for goalies, eye test isn't as important as it is for players. Like I said, the analytics take into account the team in front of him and the external factors (situations like 5 on 4, deflected shots that go in etc.). You still have given me no hard evidence from this season to change my mind about Fleury.

Take a look at these analytics, especially goals saved above expected and WAR (you'll have to scroll down for Fleury since he's at the bottom): https://moneypuck.com/goalies.htm

I trust moneypuck's site a lot more than natural stattrick as it's used by many more people

3 janv. 2022 à 9 h 48

#25

gretzkyghosts

Rejoint: avr. 2018

Messages: 5,348

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If I were the Buffalo GM (probably a good thing I am not, LOL), I would take Barrie and Turris for the best of the 2023 2nd round picks, BUF, PHI or VGK.
Jokiharju is the only RHD signed for next year.
Barrie could slip right into Miller's skates next year, while the Sabres could fill out the Right with Pysyk or Laaksonen.
Turris only has this year remaining on his contract so the trade would help EDM this year, it would have no effect on Buffalo's cap this year nor next.

GMTD a aimé ceci.

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